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Rich Hill.

At least he has shown at the major league level that he can succeed.

I would say Rodriguez and Hill if they'll accept the minor league spots. Rich Hill might be worth looking at if healthy and without wasting a spot on our big league team like he did last year. Guys like Rodriguez are a dime a dozen but I've always liked him as a back up role player. Screech just reminds me of a brandon fahey type who will probably never really be worth that much to the organization.

Simon. Hill second. Screech third. G-Rod fourth. For the very reasons you mentioned above.

Morning Roch,

I would take Fiorentino. He's a gamer. Yes, raw and needs some work but I love the way he plays the game......with a passion. I like Hill but he needs a TON of work to regain his form and Simon is a big question mark. We have enough young guns to let them fly. Rodriguez, well let's just say there is not enough room on this roster to keep him.

As for your interview with DT any tip of the hat as to what they are thinking, specific player wise, to sign over the winter. I know, if you had information you'd pass it on, just had to ask!!!

Rich Hill.

He could help stabilize the rotation in Bowie. Maybe the Baysox could even win a pennant with him... not to mention the fact that they wouldn't need to worry about calling him up.

Jeff Fiorentino!!!

He is still fairly young, has a solid bat and right now would make a great 4th outfielder or starter in case of injury for the O's. Personally I think he has more up side than Lou and will have a longer career. He reminds me of another ex-Oriole by the name of Jayson Werth.

I SAY RICH HILL JUST BECAUSE HE IS A LEFT HANDED STARTER WHO HAS HAD SUCCESS IN THE PAST.I THINK SENDING HIM TO NORFOLK TO WORK WITH MIKE GRIFFIN COULD REALLY HELP HIM REGAIN SOME OF HIS COMMAND.IF IT DOESN"T WORK OUT IT,NO REAL HARM DONE

I would keep fiorentino. We only have one outfielder complete a full major league season. And he can cover all three positions with hustle and bat control at the plate.

Hill if he can get himself together at AAA.

Don't know what Simon will bring to the table after surgery and Jeff and Guillermo are simply organizational filler.

Rich Hill. He was a very good MLB player at one time. The same can't be said of the other three.

Rich Hill . Could be a decent bullpen guy. He has to be healthy though.

THis may sound nuts but Im sticking w/ Rich Hill. If the guy can develop another off speed pitch to mask his curveball he could be dangerous. You cannot have two pitches that are vastly different in velocity. All a hitter has to do is sit on one of the pitches & tee off when you get it. Plus, its clear there is some talent w/ Hill, he had a GREAT year in 07. I think it would be big if he agreed to work on this in AAA.

Hill still has the most upside out of those players even with his injury history. Now that we don't need to waste a 40-man spot on him, I love the idea of seeing how he comes back next year.

Hill, I guess, but I won't miss any of these guys.

On that note, what did we ever wind up giving the Cubs for Hill? I recall it being conditional or something like that -- given Hill's "condition," I'm guessing twenty dollars was the negotiated price.

I would keep Simon. Simon, when healthy, showed enough of a plus arm that he could fit in as a long reliever that can be called on as a possible spot-starter if needed.
Rich Hill has lost his opportunity to pitch in the rotation, with all the young arms breaking into the rotation and I just don't see him being effective in a relief role.
Fiorentino and Rodriquez are at best 4A / organizational type players.

I would probably go with Hill because he has had some success at this level, and I like his curve ball.(Plus that would piss off Dummie) I would also hate to lose Simon.
Roch, how many rounds are there in the rule 5 draft, and is there a limit to the number of players a team can loose?
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I don't know this stuff off the top of my head. I need a refresher every winter. It's a couple rounds and I believe if a team loses a player, it can protect someone else. I did a quick Google search, but it wasn't much help when it came to those two questions. Maybe you'll have better luck. - Roch

I'm glad to know Trembley is actually looking at some statistics to see some of the areas where the team can improve... often there are things hidden which may not appear just watching the games, but only looking at accumulated stats, and these are things that could be stressed and improved upon in preparation for the season.

Nevertheless, nothing the Orioles do we really have an impact on the standings as long as the gross imbalance in payroll exists. They may at some point be able to claw their way to 85 wins as the Jays have done a few times, or be lucky enough to have one lucky season every 30 years or so as the Rays had last year. More likely, even if they make every right move and increase the payroll 20%, they will still modulate between 75-80 wins every season. Some will say that this is how baseball has always been... the Yankees and Red Sox have always been able to spend so much more than other teams. Not true, certainly not to the degree as it exists now, where the Yankees spend $80 million more than the Red Sox, and $100 million more than the next closest team.

In what seems now like an alternate reality, the Orioles managed to have a winning record in 24 out of 26 seasons. They went to the World Series three times in a row, four times in six seasons. Like the Reds, the Athletics, the Dodgers, they dominated simply because they innovated and did the job of building a baseball organization better than the other folks. A foundational value of our country, rewarding those who do their job well, that seems to have disappeared completely.

I call on what's left of the media in town to start sounding the alarm... at this point the question needs to be asked, "How long will baseball be sustainable in the current climate?" If the Orioles, Rays, and Blue Jays have a shot at the playoffs basically once every 30 years, how long is it before these teams start moving away or contracting? No one is going to come watch them in person, listen to them on the radio, or watch on TV. I give the Rays and Jays about 5 years... The Orioles 10. There will be no major league baseball in Baltimore if current conditions persist.

Rich Hill, One of the things that I really enjoyed last season was seeing him strike guys out with that huge sweeping curveball. He's also a lefty. I may be in the minority here, but I really believe that if he could just get a grip on himself a little bit and a two seam grip on his fastball he could be a good starting pitcher or a dominant lefty reliever. Bring him back!

If I were going to pick one of the four, it would be Fiorentino. He is a versatile outfielder who would be a good bench player if we traded another of our outfielders or moved one to first base.

My preference would be to take the body parts from each player that aren't injured and combine them into a single entity. This Frankenstein utility player would be able to start, pitch out of the 'pen, catch, and play the outfield. No more roster space crunch! Baseball hasn't seen this much positional flexibility since Jose Oquendo!

Rich Hill.

Young lefty starters with past success are hard to find. The other 3 (utility outfielder, backup catcher, journeyman right handed pitcher coming off of surgery) are very easy to find.

Keep Hill, he's got the best upside.

I had a friend that played basketball at George Mason when Len Bias was at Marylad. They were both counselors at a youth basketball camp. My buddy and the rest of the counselors would go out for a few at night after the camp.

He told me that Bias really didn't go out and seemed to be a very nice straight laced guy. His death was a quite a surprise.

Thanks, Roch -- Good stuff from Trembley. I love to hear offseason reports from coaches/players. Sounds like Dave's intent on doing a thorough analysis of the "state of the team" long before the FA and offseason moves begin, which is smart. I hope he finds time to relax though. He doesn't strike me as a guy who has a lot of outside hobbies! (I'm trying to picture him, the Orioles cap sitting on the very top of his head, as he struggles tor put a model airplane together or set the mast on a boat in a bottle; It just doesn't work.)

Definitely I'd keep Hill out of that group, for the reasons many others have mentioned. Simon had a great spring last year, and a great start against the Yankees in April, but with surgery and spotty performance before last year he's just got even more to prove now. Fiorentino and Rodriguez are low ceiling back-ups in positions of depth; no big deal if lost to another team.

Simon or Hill. Keep in mind that Simon made the starting rotation at the beginning of last season. He looked great in the spring and never got a chance to see if that was just a fluke. I'm not sure if Hill would be more or less risky to lose.

Screech would likely get picked up somewhere else but Rodriguez would probably slip through the cracks in waivers.

Rich Hill

I still remember the horrible news of Lenny's death as if it was yesterday. So much talent wasted. Even though I never met him I was in a deep state of depression for about a week. And my Mom, who is a huge Terps basketball fan was brought to tears. I still contend that we would all be wearing Air Bias not Air Jordan if he hadn't passed.

Which one to keep? Trembley

Fiorentino. I like his effort and he can play every outfield position. He's a good utility guy to have around.

It's so nice to scroll through the comments with no tirades.

Rich Hill. Maybe Mike Griffin, who worked so well with the young arms at AAA, could straighten him out and help him become a productive pitcher.

I would say "none of the above". Rich Hill has the most upside but he can't stay healthy and if he does stay healthy he can't find the plate.

The other three are organizational types of guys, so if you need to fill the spots at Norfolk or Bowie go for it, otherwise see ya.

Roch - felt the same way you did regarding the death of Bias. I think that 2 x 4 stretched all the way from North Carolina up to Boston that early summer day.

Hill, hands down.

He's just got too much upside. Fiorentino, though well liked by the fans, would be hard pressed to make the parent club any time soon.

I would like to see Hill and Simon. Pitching...pitching...and more pitching. PITCHING is the name of the game.

I vote for keeping Alfredo Simon as a situational lefty. This way if we sign Hendrickson, he can start or be long or middle relief. Not much upside to the others that warrants a roster spot.

C.B.,
You have me somewhat confused by the way you describe an effective changeup..

"THis may sound nuts but Im sticking w/ Rich Hill. If the guy can develop another off speed pitch to mask his curveball he could be dangerous. You cannot have two pitches that are vastly different in velocity. All a hitter has to do is sit on one of the pitches & tee off when you get it."

Maybe you can state it more clearly.

The effectiveness of a slow pitch is predicated on that pitch traveling at least 10 mph on average slower than previous pitches. The vogue in change ups has been the straight change thrown with the same motion as the fast ball. The change up thrown to disrupt a batter's timing -- get him out front -- is most effective, of course, when it is unexpected..

Stu Miller, perhaps the finest practitioner of the changeup, has been mentioned a few times in different threads recently. You may want to check out Todd Newville's web site: http://www.baseballtoddsdugout.com/stumiller.html

Former major league pitcher Stu Miller was a master of deception. A magician on the mound with a fluttering array of off-speed pitches, the 5-foot-11, 165-pound Miller used his assortment of curveballs and change-ups to confound and frustrate many opposing hitters during his career.

Even the best sluggers had a hard time gauging the diminutive Miller. With his baffling repertoire, the right-hander could make even the best hitters - salivating like a pack of Pavlov’s hungry dogs - flail in disgust at his ever-so-enticing offerings.

He didn’t make many friends with opposing hitters over the years, but he certainly earned their respect. Miller proved that you don’t need to possess blazing speed or an imposing physique to succeed as a pitcher at the highest level of professional baseball.

By the time 1966 rolled around, Miller had earned himself a spot among the game’s highest-paid players. That year, he went 9-4 with 18 saves and a 2.25 ERA in 51 games as the Orioles swept the Dodgers in the World Series.

“When I was with Baltimore in 1966,” Miller said, “the general manager (Harry Dalton) called me into his office. We didn’t have agents in those days. We did things on our own. When I signed my contract, he told me I was the highest-paid relief pitcher in both leagues. I think it was $46,500. That was excellent for any position back then. If you made more than $20,000, you were pretty darn good.”

Former teammate Giants outfielder Dusty Rhodes quipped, “Boys, there's the first pitcher I ever saw that changed speeds on his change-up."

Roch - Kind of an arbitrary question - but would you say NFL coaches have a tougher, more stressful offseason? I'm not saying Trembley doesnt have much to do right now but it seems like NFL coaches are always game planning, watching tape, etc.
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At least NFL coaches have about 100 assistants to shoulder some of the load. - Roch

Roch,
I would keep Hill, but i really think they need to send him to a good sports psychologist. I know he has been injured, but I also think a lot of his problems are confidence related.

Dave said:

Dave,

After all, the Yankee franchise is worth nearly one billion dollars, which is roughly 300 million over the second place Red Sox. And you don't reach a net worth of one billion by earning 300 million less than the lowly Orioles over eight years.

"grow the arms and buy the bats"... I can't wait to see what the Orioles consider buying the bats.. Ah thats right.. buying the bats means lining the pockets of the Angelos family w/ MASN money which might as well be public wellfare. Angelos is on record of saying the network was developed to allow the Orioles the resources necessary to compete w/ the Yanks and Sox. Since the network was created all the team has done is cut payroll...hmm.. wonder why that is?

A little housekeeping from a submission about yesterday's question:

David B said:
" ... I wasn't sure if people like Mike Costanzo qualified as still being around ... . SP - Satchel Paige or Jim Palmer."

David B.,
One of the most remarkable aspects of Leroy Paige's career was his durability, but not even Satchel, who pitched his last major league game in 1965, could indefinitely postpone his final homecoming. He died in 1982 in Kansas City.

I'd keep Fiorentino. I think the guy has potential and is not just another sore arm.

He seems to be developing and hitting better, can play CF and allows possible trade chips with Pie or Jones.

Rich Hill. Fiorentino is a marginal player and with the outfield already full with Reimold, Jones, Markakis, Pie and Scott the O's can do without him. I'd give Hill one more shot since allegedly he was pitching with a bum arm this season.

As far as Bias goes, you reap what you sow. And who was the fall guy? Lefty Driesell. It wasn't Lefty's fault, it was ALL the fault of Len Bias. No one else.

Rich Hill has incredible upside, even after 2 years of failure. That kind of curveball doesn't grow on trees, folks. Let's see if he's willing to go down to the minors, reconstruct his delivery, and learn how to consistently throw a fastball for strikes. If you combine an accurate fastball with that enormous curve, you're going to have a stud for your rotation.

Roch,

In answer to your question .... Hill.

============

In answer to West Coast O's Fan's question ....

I think, once a round occurs with no one picked the draft is over. Theoretically, if some team decided to open up their whole 40-man roster, the draft could go 41 rounds.

If I'm right, you can determine the maximum number of rounds the draft will be by checking each teams 40-man roster and looking for the one with the most openings. This assumes a team can't open a spot on the 40-man roster while the draft is in progress.

Baldy

I can't wait until we actually start to "buy the bats". But until then, we get to watch the arms grow. I'm glad Erbe got the selection to the Rising Stars game in which Matusz pitched last year. Erbe's numbers look pretty sick, and if you consider the fact that he is pitching in a VERY HEAVY hitter's league, you come away even more impressed. I'm excited to watch him pitch in the game coming up on MLB Network.

And, if I had to choose 1 of the above mentioned guys, it would be Rich Hill. He has the most upside and the version of him that we saw last year wasn't the real him, he is capable of better, but the problem is that with labrum surgery, odds are against ever returning to 100%. Personally, I'd sacrifice Patton, Hill and Albers if we could somehow ensure that Chorye Spoone would come back 100%, but thats nothing more than a pipedream. All we can do is hope he returns the way he was.....

Hey Roch!
According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Rays are close to dealing Iwamura. Could the Orioles be the team that gets him?

Andrew,

Off topic Roch, but I heard the Baltimore Sun didn't send a single reporter to cover the World Series this year. It's odd because both cities are reasonably close.

Is this yet another cost saving ploy or do Sun reporters refuse to cover the Series for fear they'll be fired during the 3rd inning.

EVERYONE-

Again, I'll point out that Strasburg signed only a 4 year deal for 15.1.
A player normally can not enter FA until after their 6th year.

Chapman would most likely fall into this category.
So, if Strasburg is worth 4 million a year, you can just look at Chapman as being another #1 overall pick.

Wouldn't you want the O's to take the best player in the draft? How may got mad that they took Hobgood?

Obviously, we want the best players.
We DO NOT want the Sox and Yankees to get them.
If you put a value of $4 million a year on the #1 overall pick, then that would put Chapman in the $25 million range.

Wouldn't you want them to sign their #1 pick if they drafted him?
I really don't see how this is even a debate, of course you pursue the kid. If he ends up over $30 million, then bail out. But lets get the actual figures first.

Hey Roch,

My frosh year at Maryland's was Bias' senior year. I still have the 6' bias poster they gave out at one of the games. I loved seeing him around campus sporting that ugly-a** multi-fur coat that he designed for himself. And, of course, I remember putting gas in my car in Winfield, Maryland when the news came over the radio. You can't forget the feeling of waste and loss that his death caused. It's a shame so many young people still haven't learned that lesson.

Thanks for the remembrance.

Hi Roch:

My question of the day to you:

I am standing on the ledge of the roof at Camden Yards Warehouse. The last 12 years have been too much to take, the Ravens own the city, Jack and Brummie have driven me insane, it all seems hopeless. You are Andy McPhail and have been sent to talk me off the ledge. What words of encouragement are you saying to me to keep from jumping?
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I'd hope you have more to live for than a baseball team. Not sure if that's encouraging, but you get my drift... - Roch

Roch,

Next time you speak with Dave, would you ask him to what purpose is he studying the stats? Is it to assist him with in game management, or is it to somehow evaluate potential free agent acquisitions?

Thanks

Maybe Simon, because he's a lefty and still unknown.
I think Hill IS known, which is unfortunate for him...PLUS he's really a RIGHTY, throwing lefty. I'll never get over that one. Phony!

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Simon is right-handed. - Roch

FYI, The ESPN Barry Levinson Colts Band documentary will be re-aired Christmas Day at 5PM EST.

I'd take Simon. I've seen enough of Hill to last me awhile.

Who I would keep? Fiorentina. He could be our fourth outfielder. Even though he plays the position scared, he still has some upside. Rodriguez hasn't done much up here and Hill and Simon are Andrew's golden boys. Good riddance to these retreads.

"PAUL.R said:

My preference would be to take the body parts from each player that aren't injured and combine them into a single entity. This Frankenstein utility player would be able to start, pitch out of the 'pen, catch, and play the outfield. No more roster space crunch! Baseball hasn't seen this much positional flexibility since Jose Oquendo!"

Heh. I like this idea. We can call him: Riff Simoguez. Or Jech Rodrimon. Or Nick Markakis.

Fiorentino and Hill... What's up with Moeller??? Will he be given a invite to Spring Training??? He seemed to really help Weiters defensively after he came back... He's like another catching and pitching coach...

Rich Hill probably has the most potential of the group to be a productive MLB player, so I would be most inclined to keep him. When he had is stuff together (like even mediocre fastball command) his curveball was incredible. Fiorentino would have a shot as a 4th outfielder, but I think Montanez is better. The other two have zero value in my opinion.

Hey Roch,
Trembley mentioned in your talk with him that he has some candidates for a new bench coach. Any word on who he is considering? If no, do you have any good ideas for that new position?

Thanks,
Drew
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They hired Jeff Datz last week. He was most recently the Indians' bench coach. - Roch

Rich Hill gets my vote. Proven it once at the ML level. Best risk of the 4 with highest upside. On a related note - I will be very annoyed if he declares himself a free agent. Just as I was with stupid Loewen. The O's did everything possible for Hill last year, and I don't care how selfish and money oriented the world is, or what everyone else does, I won't respect someone who spits in the face of the organization that gave him every chance and is still willing to give him every chance to succeed. He did get a decent paycheck from us all year, no?

Jeff - Outstanding work. Very good to see folks willing to call out the sport for being so shameless about throwing competitive balance out the window. I have written many posts on this topic, so I can predict that many people will just tell you that it has always been this way, or that the O's should just spend more, or whatever. But it just aint so. I have written about:

1. The very significant correlation between payroll and wins per year over the past several years

2. The craziness of putting the Expos in our market, crippling two teams when they could have been placed in Northern NJ, or Southern Conn. or Long Island where they would have helped balance NY and/ or Bos.

3. An approach where, with a relatively minor schedule tweak, MLB could significantly offset the silly NY-LA-CHI-PHL imbalances

4. The fallacy of using total industry revenues as the only measure of success - why huge revenue increases in the relatively short term can kill the game over the long haul.

and several other related posts.

In the past few days on this blog, we have seen three very intelligent posts that interlock on this topic. Dave posted some clear arguments for why the O's (who, if Dave's stats are correct, place a much greater emphasis on earnings per year than do the Yankees and most other teams) should up their payroll by $35million or so. A second poster (forgive me for forgetting his/her name) posted clear thoughts on why it is not just free agency or total payroll that is stacked in favor of the "big boys" but also the draft (with its restrictions on trading picks and tendency to let the better talent fall down to the bigger wallets). And now you have posted the clarion call to the local media to start analyzing the payroll disparity and the inevitable long term outcomes if the disparity is left unchecked.

It is a delight to read posts such as these. I suspect the diminished number of troll posts has allowed better commentary to emerge.

Here's hoping for more attention to the payroll disparity issue and potential solutions. And less attention to the dying trolls.

Keep Rich Hill.

Does Dave T realize that he might find it helpful to use the computer during the season as well?

re: jackdunn'sbaby

I figured if I was allowed to put an alive Jim Brower on there a dead Satchel Paige wasn't much more of a stretch. I mean, he maybe dead but I still think he could get Wigginton to pop out on the first pitch.

Roch,Did I read that right? AFL on Tv?
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It's the Rising Stars showcase game on MLB network. - Roch

David B.,
Can't argue with that equivalency

Hey Gm,
You reap what you sow? Really? Very classy comment. God Bless the Bias family! They have been through alot.

I'll never forget Lenny Bias leading maryland back from like 9 down with 3 minutes left, to win in overtime and give Carolina their first loss at the dean dome. he hit this long-range jumper, rushed in, stole the in-bounds pass and reverse-dunked on warren martin.

I can't imagine how great he would have been in the nba, where they couldn't have used zone or double and triple-teams against him. and how huge a star would he have been if he had come along in this 24/7, espn-internet era?

a rare, rare talent; to this day, I don't know that I've seen better.

Brummie/Jack, please read the following VERY CAREFULLY. It is an explanation of the PLAN the Orioles have developed under Andy McPhail. If it is too difficult to understand I can draw pictures with a crayon if you'd like.
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On MacPhail's desire to acquire bats without trading the top young pitchers in the organization:
"I think that's the direction we'd like it to go. I can't see us trading any of our good young arms. I think Andy's been very consistent with that. We're going to develop our own pitching and try to get as much of an inventory as we possibly can. I think we've seen in the post-season and World Series that starting pitching is at a premium, and good start pitching. He has said we'll grow the arms and buy the bats. I don't see us trading those high-quality arms. I think it would have to be something really, really overwhelming for that to be considered. I don't see Andy changing his philosophy, and I'm in total agreement."
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Got it? Make sense? You sure?