Closing Time
So just how important is the closer on a baseball team?
The closer may be the most important player on a good team. If you've beaten a team for all or most of eight innings, there is seemingly nothing more devastating than blowing the lead in the ninth. If you've come from behind late to get the lead, you need to seal the deal.
But is the closer critical on a losing and/or rebuilding team?
Here's my take on the O's and the closer position for the 2010 season.
Right now, they have bigger needs, like a starting pitcher or two and a big bat. Not that they don't need a closer at some point, I just don't think it should be at the top of the list now.
Some say with young pitchers the O's really need a top-notch closer now. They feel blowing leads for a youngster will hurt the pitcher's development.
I don't buy that. For sure blowing a lead is never a good thing. But if Chris Tillman pitches seven innings of four-hit ball vs. the Yankees and leaves with a 3-1 lead, his confidence will be high whether the O's go on to win that game or not.
Young pitchers gain confidence by getting out good hitters, not by piling up wins. Wins don't hurt but Tillman would have to feel good about an outing like the one mentioned above, even in a loss.
Now, when and if the O's are in contention (assuming that's unlikely in 2010) they will need a top closer.
Most of this year's playoff teams have excellent closers like Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Huston Street and Jonathon Broxton.
But even poor teams can have closers that pile up saves. San Diego's Heath Bell led the NL in saves this year and Cincy's Francisco Cordero was second.
It wouldn't bother me much if the Orioles used this year to look at in-house closing candidates. Players like Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, Kam Mickolio and Luis Lebron perhaps later in the year.
A solid closer might emerge and they could fill the need without adding anyone. Or they'll find out something is missing for the future.
What is your take on the O's closer role for 2010?
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Categories (click for archive)Orioles News | Steve Melewski |
I think that some folks are gonna be surprised. I predict that Koji will transfer into the closer role in grand fashion. The big hitch will be having a lead in the 9th inning.......
I completely agree with your assessment of the need for a closer right now in theory. My only problem is this. We've been told that Dave Trembley will be judged this year on the win-loss record. It hardly seems fair to make that statement and then not supply him with a most crucial element in securing wins. If they're not going to get the best closer possible, then don't judge the manager on wins. Judge him on leads going into the ninth.
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Yes, but MacPhail said he'll be judged by a "reasonable" improvement in the record and standings. Reasonable doesn't mean he has to win the AL East to keep his job and if the closer position is shaky no one will know that better than MacPhail......Steve
Dave Trembly has no clue how to use his bullpen.Some interesting candidates though in Kam and Koji
Thanks Steve. The talk of giving Billy Wagner $7 M and having to relinquish a draft-pick (even a second rounder) has been confusing, since there really isn't any difference for the team between 73 wins and 75 (what Wagner might add over JJ, The Almighty, etc., if even that much).
I will say that that goes for contending teams as well - the great teams tend to have great closers because they have at least one great reliever who they put in that role. (If their pens were complete zeroes they would be in more trouble overall.) They tend to have good rotations so they can afford to move a top pitching prospect to the pen. Also, if you already have a great team than upgrading at closer to get those extra couple wins to put you over the top is more worthwhile.
Steve,
Not top notch, but competent, certainly not a type A free agent. Closer is one of the few strengths of this free agent class, they shouldn't have to overpay to sign one of the second tier guys. But I do think they need to add someone from outside so that JJ can go back to set up and Koji can stay in long relief. If you go in house, then you plug one hole and open up another. They may even want to add a closer and another reliever.
It would be very helpful for the Os to have a better than average relief corps this year. Keep the starters from thinking they have to do it all themselves.
Baldy
PS Signing a FA closer may help to attract a FA starter.
Hope you had a nice holiday Steve. I think that Koji should be given first crack, think he would be great. Kam, with some seasoning, could be a god one. I would like to see the O's sign just one bullpener for next year, someone like a Dotel or Soriano, both are versatile enough for many roles, one of them being closer.
No way, we need a stopper. No excuses. We are in the midst of how many losing seasons?? Its clear after Sherrill the late inning relievers struggled. Its a weakness, fix it. The FA market is thin besides for closers. Act now,,,why not? What if our guys (Kam, Koji) dont pan out? Then we cannot turn back. The FA needs to be proactive & not wait to see what happens. YOu can never have too much pitching, make it happen O's !!!
Guys to consider who wont break the bank:
Kevin Gregg
Kelvim Escobar
Chad Cordero
Brandon Lyon
J.J. Putz
Fernando Rodney
Steve- In all of your article, you've left out the most important thing. It's been lost here in Baltimore for a long time.
What about the fans?
If there is a better option at closer on the FA market, don't you owe it to the fans to get better at the position? With the surplus of money that the O's have, this shouldn't even be a debate.
Tillman's confidence fine....what about the hearts of the fans that get ripped out when a save is blown or a late lead?
If we had 10 million total to spend, sure, I guess the fans would have to eat a 13th season. But that is not the case.
They should be actively pursuing someone with a track record of success.
Yes, there is rebuilding, but you can't just throw in the towel for 3 or 4 years. My head is going to burst again, I can't write anymore. Christ.
OK, here is a hypothetical. The O's are gonna win 70 games, as is. If we go stopgap with a Delgado and a Beltre etc. Maybe that gets 5 or 7 more wins. Crap, we just blew 5 extra games late, we are at 72. If we had brought in a closer, those 5, and maybe 5 more wins turn up. Oh, thats 82. Don't the fans deserve those extra 10 wins? The fans that are left anyway.
Considering we had the highest attendance in baseball for a decade, and now we can't break 2 million. Maybe my point is, shouldn't they be able to get CI, SP, AND a Closer?
Doesn't anyone realize, kids going into High School this year have NEVER seen the O's even play 500 ball? No wonder free agents don't want to come here.
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All of it is about the fans at some point, the rebuilding and the hopeful return to winning. I'm just saying I think their are higher priorities currently than closer.
Steve
I PREDICT CHRIS RAY AND JIM JOHNSON WILL BE OUR 8TH AND 9TH INNING PITCHERS. THEY BOTH HAVE PROVEN THEY HAVE THE ABILITY TO BE THE SET UP MAN OR CLOSER. IT WOULD BE FISCALLY IRRESPONSIBLE TO COMMIT A HUGE EXPENDITURE TO A VETERAN. ITS NOT LIKE GETTING A CLOSER WILL GET THE O'S TO THE WORLD SRIES. THE O'S STILL ARE UNSURE OF WHAT THEY WILL GET FROM 1ST AND 3RD BASE AND SHORTSTOP IS GOING TO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AFTER THE 2010 SESON.
Pfft!
A very good closer is about as usefull as a pretty good #3 pitcher. Not many saves are high leverage situations, I would hope that every bullpen guy I have can come into the game and get three outs without surrendering three runs. A lot of times the actual high leverage situation is in the seventh or eighth inning.
An given season there are a handfull of closers that truely impact thier teams seasons in a positive way, for the most part they are interchangable parts. If the O's starting pitching can record two more outs on average then they did last year, the change in the bullpen will be remarkable.
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I agree with you, Jeff. Just a few more outs per game from the starters and the bullpen outlook would be a whole lot better. - Steve
Steve,
Interesting that Chris Ray didn't make your short list of possible internal candidates - not that I think he's the 'best' returning option.
I feel it is the most over rated role on any team. You might even argue that dependable middle relief in hold situations with runners on in the 6th or 7th inning is a more valuable/needed role. If the manager doesn't have dependable middle relief, he will be inclined to stick with the starter longer than otherwise. If he has the arm(s), he makes the switch without hesitation.
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Good points, Boomer. I did kind of over look Chris Ray there, didn't I. Right now I just don't have confidence that he will return to form, but hope I am wrong.
That guy in the 6th and 7th is a key, too. Remember how good Albers was in that role in 2008 and the O's were around .500 then. - Steve
I've seen closers emerge from the minors to reach short/intermediate term stardom and gone just as quickly. Investing in a free agent closer brings risk in that his best days may have been last season. I'd rather see the money spent elsewhere and find an in-house solution.
The O's need someone besides J.J. or Ray to close. Maybe they think they can do it "in house" and don't want to take on a big contract like Wagner or Gonzalez but adding a past closer with some medical "issues" should be worth a try. Low risk, high reward on a 1 year deal with tons of incentives. With so many "borderline closer types out there, they should be able to get one and go for broke, like Putz, Cordero, Gordon or even Ryan, though he may be done. If they get lucky, it sets up the rest of the pen 9mainly J.J.)in their comfort zone.
Respectfully disagree with you Steve. Not all defeats are equal.
Nothing is more deflating to a fan--and presumedly members of a team--than repeated blown saves. It's gut wrenching in a way that other defeats are not. A blowout or a 3-2 defeat when we're tied or trailing in the 8th and just couldn't quite score the winning run is not as emotionally charged. I've never been a professional player, so I look to others to tell me first hand, but numerous late inning implosions must take more of an emotional toll on players and lead to the possibility of clubhouse second guessing, finger pointing and dissession more than other defeats. True?
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You can disagree with me anytime, Bama, all opinions are welcome.
As I said early in that article, blown late leads are devestating and I do think can have carry over effect. I'm not sure about finger pointing and so on, unless players are then second guessing the manager's moves.
I just don't think closer is a high priority for this club right now. Thanks for writing.
Steve
Steve, The closer role is so important that it's nearly impossible for a team to make the possible without a dominant one. I'm not sure I'd agree with you that it's more important than quality starters, because you can't close games if your starters aren't handing you leads, but it's at least a close second in my mind. (Also, the best starters can close their own games, as in Roy Halladay.)
Look at Rivera in the World Series. He closed each of the Yankees' victories and although none qualified as saves, unofficially they all were saves because any glimmer of hope the Phillies had to come back was effectively dashed each time he was announced into a game. It's like he comes in and the thought has to be flashing in their minds that IT'S OVER. For that reason I think he was probably as deserving of the Series MVP as Hideki Matsui.
Incidentally, Rivera has to rank as one the greatest playoff closer and one of the greatest playoff pitchers period with his ridiculous 0.74 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, .236 OBA. In 133.1 IP, he's yielded only 21 BB and 2 HR to go with 106 K. No one's done it better than Mo for so long.
Speaking of the (boo, hiss) Yankees, latest news has Halladay saying he's open to a trade to New York. All I can say is if that happens MLB should just go ahead and give them the 2010 World Series trophy on Opening Day, because the rest of the season won't really matter. Shhhsh.
As for the Orioles closer next year I really like Koji in that role, if he's open to closing (no pun intended). He was very tough--at times nearly unhittable--his first time through lineups and if his sinker's working, he has a definite out pitch. And of the in-house candidates you mentioned, he's the one who has proven he can close, albeit in Japan.
I think it makes more sense for Andy MacPhail to go within the organization for a closer and save the money he'd spend on a Wagner towards the more important goal of getting top of a rotation starter and a power hitter.
Speaking of Koji, any possibility of you getting a Japanese interpreter on the phone with you this offseason and calling Koji to find out what he thinks? That would make some interesting reading.
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We had a hard enough time getting much out of Koji with the in person translater, a phone interview is probably a real long shot.
By the way, if the Jays are daring and/or crazy enough to trade Halladay within the division, Toronto better get a huge haul of talent from NY.
Steve
Perhaps Os could use a pitcher who could fit all their needs in one. Veteran, starter, closer, mentor. John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Brett Myers, all successful who know how to win. Johnson not much relief work but did it in playoffs vs Yankees and was very good. Incentive driven contract for innings/apperances etc. Could be a big plus for young staff.
"Steve, The closer role is so important that it's nearly impossible for a team to make the possible without a dominant one."
The 2009 Phillies and 2008 Rays would like a word with you.
"Kevin Gregg
Kelvim Escobar
Chad Cordero
Brandon Lyon
J.J. Putz
Fernando Rodney"
Nothing wrong with your opinion, but Chad Cordero has a serious velocity problem. Last season he barely hit 80 mph on the radar gun - that's why he was released by the Mariners very quickly. Also, I think Lyon and Rodney will be more expensive than you think.
Steve wrote: "if the Jays are daring and/or crazy enough to trade Halladay within the division, Toronto better get a huge haul of talent from NY."
According to Jeremy Sanders of Canada's National Post, the requirements are steep: "The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay."
http://www.nationalpost.com/sports/story.html?id=2273751
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Thanks, Ken.......Steve
I think closers are supremely overrated for the most part. For every Mariano Rivera, there are tons of wanna-bes. Benitez, Kohlmeier, Timlin, Julio, BJ Ryan (talk about a another bad deal in Toronto for a former Oriole closer!), all showed flashes of brilliance and then came crashing back to earth (though Ryan was by far the best closer of the group). Sherrill was great through the 2008 ASB and then was injured and ineffective. I think it's somewhat baloney that it takes a special person to get the 27th out. It makes you wonder how teams survived without closers before the 70s. I'd love to see what the success ratio is on signing closers over the last decade...I'd bet it's not pretty.
I do find it a little odd that MacPhail is alleged to be in the market for a closer though. It doesn't seem like the biggest need for this club going forward in the long term.
As for who I want to see closing in 2010: Koji Uehara.
Kelvim Escobar likely will never pitch again, according to stuff I've read coming from Angels fans. Rodney was a closer, and Lyon thinks he should be, and both expect to be paid like they are. Putz would be a great option if he's healthy, but no one knows. Kevin Gregg's numbers look good, until you dig a bit deeper and find that he allowed 13 HRs in 68 2/3 IP this season, including 6 in 5 blown saves and another in an extra inning loss. Thanks, but no, considering he made $4.2MM last season and likely expects a big raise.
Closers, and relievers in general, are reliably unreliable. Consistent in their inconsistency. Many closers are discovered by accident, not groomed, and certainly most of them don't have a track record of consistency over four or five seasons.
I'll take my chances with the team signing a couple of solid setup men, expecting that someone will emerge during spring training and grab the job.
I personally hope if any of our starters leave a game up by 2 after 7 and the O's lose they wouldn't be happy. I'd hope they'd be disappointed by not getting a win and would either expect the team to get it done next time, or finish it out themselves, definitely not take the "I did a good enough job personally" attitude, which might not be what you're implying, but how I'd take it as a fan if a guy seemed alright with a loss just because he went 7 good innings. That said, closer is the most overrated position in sports. It's not like there is a shortage of guys who can do it. You can pick any team in the majors, and if the guy they have closing isn't getting the job done, I guarantee they have at least 1 if not more guys on the bench who could do it. Whether or not they put the right guy out is a different thing. The last 3 outs aren't any different, closers just want people to think they are so they can get more money than their easiest job in sports should actually pay.
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You may have to re read what I wrote. I never said they'd be happy with a blown lead but they would be confident in their own performance (had they done a real good job, say, thru seven innings) and it would not hurt their development. No one should be happy with a loss but any player could gain confidence in his own game during a loss. - Steve
Wasn't Koji a closer for the Yomiuru Giants in Tokyo already? By trying to make him something that he hadn't been for years, he got hurt.
Who would think that we need to look for a closer elsewhere? It makes no sense...
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In Japan, he was mostly a starter for the Giants (207 starts in 276 career gms) but in 2007 he did close for them. That year, he went 4-3, 1.74 with 32 saves in 62 innings over 55 games. - Steve
Steve,
While I'm sure it won't matter to Tillman's development if the bullpen blows a lead versus the Yankees, not having a quality closer (or a reliable bullpen) can hurt the development and confidence of your young pitchers when you have to overextend them because you have no one to turn to in a close game. Too many blown leads always result in managers leaving their starters in for too long and that does have multiple ill effects on a young pitcher.
The Orioles should invest in a veteran closer to anchor their bullpen/pitching staff. Just like an ace pitcher is important to your starting five, the ace of your bullpen (the closer) is just as important to your bullpen.
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I don't worry too much about that. I don't see the O's pushing their young pitchers because they don't have a closer. They will carefully monitor innings for guys like Matusz and Tillman, you can count on that. - Steve
We saw what happened last year with JJ in the closer role? Does anyone think Koji is going to make ti through the year w/o injury? And Mickolio and Lebron are really untested. When the O's lost Sherill at the break they really fell apart. I'm sorry. The team needs a solid closer. Watching us blow games fro mthe sixth inning on is demoralizing and our starters do not go late into games. We need an extrmely solid bullpen ,and one in which our closer can pitch frequently. Koji can't w/o risk of injury.
Frankly, if we can get Wagner we only give up a second round pick not a first one, and only if Wagner is offered arbitration I beleive. Wagner has expressed an interest in coming here and we could definetely use w/o Sherill around. I say get him. An in-house option here is not really a good option.
I generally agree with you but I do think young pitchers need a solid bullpen behind them, and not for mere confidence reasons.
Having a closer or not is indicative of the quality of the rest of the pen. If a young pitcher doesn't trust his pen to hold leads for him, esp. when they relieve him mid-inning, it changes the way that they pitch. It doesn't always change every pitcher the same way, but it just might contribute to a shift in pitch selection or strategy in certain situations that would otherwise not be. Young pitchers who have success, oftentimes are successful because they trust their teammates. Young pitchers who don't trust their pen may not be willing to pitch around certain guys that they should, or be going for strikeouts when they shouldn't, and/or playing to keep their ERAs low (which will get exploded if a iffy RP comes in).
Hey Doug, can you provide a link or something where Wagner "expressed an interest in coming here?" I haven't seen this, all I saw was that his agent said the Orioles were one of many teams that contacted him and showed interest. I really doubt that Wagner expressed interest in coming to the O's. I don't think anyone really wants to come here...
Hey Steve-please dont write off 2010 already. This organization cant be given free pass years forever. They have been rebuilding since 1999. They cant keep saying were rebuilding. McPhail seems to say it but as they say actions speaks louder than words. The teams payroll is so low they should be able to go after the starting pitching , the bats and a reliable closer. Its time for some real improvment. This team might wait for 2011 and then there could be a labor problem in 2011. The attitude has to change or we will always be rebuilding.
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Just being honest and realistic, Marc. The team could have all the money in the world, but the top players don't want to play for a team coming off 12 losing seasons in a row, that's just the way it is. We all know they won't be adding three players like the Yankees did last year or else the outlook would be different.
This team is moving in the right direction. But we don't know when rebuidling turns into contention, although I don't think they are there yet. - Steve
I would like them to make the push for Wagner. You could probably get him for 2 years, FA is weak this year and isn't anyone really worth big money anyway. I think Wagner there might help free agents come to Baltimore after NEXT season. You probably will pick up 5-10 games in the standings having him over JJ and Koji unproven in the role in the US. You then could push Koji down to setup which would make the bullpen deeper. I know 2010 will be more rebuilding but an established closer would help out.
Was it Billy Beane that said it is easier to make a closer than buy one?
Any decent bullpen pitcher can become a closer. Happens every season; closers all begin as middle inning men. Orioles need to increase wins by 31 to reach 95 and the wild card. Ain't gonna happen in one season. Closer is a 'nice to have' at this point. Key to winning is strong starting rotation, from the five on opening day and the other five or so who are added during the season. So build the rotation, at least ten deep, then worry about the closer.
This probably has already been said, but I'm not so much concerned about the confidence of the starters like Tillman, but for the offense. Imagine batteling it out and getting the hits need only to see that all undone by a sorry closer. Rebuiling should not only mean rebuilding the staff, but also the confidence of those within the field, and those prospects outside of the team.
Hey there Steve,
Do you know if Cesar Izturis is working hard on his hitting shortcomings? . . .Or has he reached his offensive limits. I'm not so much talking about homers, but hits.
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Greg, Izturis hit .256 last year and his slugging was .328. His career numbers are .259 and .331 so he hit about as he always does. He's there for his glove and you are just not going to get much offense there. - Steve
I have a good feeling about Koji as closer next year, and Mickolio
down the road.
I think that as a whole the closer role is ridiculously overrated, and I think that nearly every manager puts too much stock into the 'role' and not the match-ups. How many times have we seen Trembley, or managers for other teams, put in a lefty against a guy who has tremendous situational numbers versus that pitcher (e.g. the constant usage of Walker against Ortiz, even though we always knew how that story was going to end)? Or watch a closer not have his 'A' game, have everyone in the park know he's going to blow it, and then watch him blow it?
Its all overrated. I think that there are MAYBE 5 elite closers in all of baseball who deserve the ball in the 9th inning no matter what. Outside of that I think you play matchups. If you have a one run lead going into the eighth inning and are facing their 3-4-5 hitters then why on Earth would you not put in your best guy then, and let somebody else have at the bottom of the order in the ninth? Why are we so stubborn with our defined roles that we aren't playing the best matchups? Its dumb in my opinion, yet pretty much all of the teams play it this way (some will go to their closer for 2 innings, but not very often).
I dream of seeing a day without closers, except for those 5 or so elites. You have 6 or 7 guys out in that bullpen on any given day; lets play matchups with them.
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Interesting stuff, Jason. It seems there are a wide variety of opinions on closers. Some, like you, feel they are over rated. Others think they are very valuable.
Steve
Steve,
Considering the FO is saying Trembley will be judged on wins and loses next year, do you still think they shouldn't acquire late inning help? Would it be fair to Trembley? I'm not saying this means getting Soriano, someone who can step competently into the slot, a second tier guy.
As for the value of closers, they are a fact of life. You may be surprised to learn I think closers are overrated as well. If you have a pitcher in the game who just pitched a lights out 8th inning, I say leave him in. Unfortunately, practically no one in baseball agrees with this. But if the guy in there just pitched a rocky 8th ....
As far as playing match up, because of the hype that has come to surround the role, you need a pitcher of a certain makeup, one who thrives on adrenaline. If you have three or four guys in your bullpen who qualify, go for it. But most teams are lucky if they have one.
Baldy
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I still think there are more pressing needs on the club right now. Also, MacPhail said Trembley would be graded on a reasonabe W-L record improvement. That doesn't mean he needs to win 90 games or will be a goner. - Steve
Steve,
"I still think there are more pressing needs on the club right now." For all the same reasons you don't see the need for a closer, I don't see the need to prioritize corner infielder or starter over closer and I don't see this as an either/or situation. They aren't close to contending, filling any one, two or three holes isn't going to make them a contender. If you are willing to take a chance on Uehara or Johnson as closer, why not Hughes, Wiggington & Aubrey at 1st and 3rd? Or any of the many 5th starter possibilities already on the team? As I said in the original thread, "I would get all three" meaning corner IF, starter & closer, but I wouldn't prioritize one over the other. All three would just be hole fillers for a year or two. I also think signing a closer will add to their ability to sign other FAs, most particularly a starter.
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OK, got it. Steve
"That doesn't mean he needs to win 90 games or will be a goner." I didn't say that nor would I have.
Baldy
Shouldn't your logic apply to the starting rotation as well? With Guthrie, Bergy, Matusz and Tillman all but guaranteed spots we still have Berken, Hernandez, Arrieta, Erbe and Patton all gunning for that 5th starter spot. That's more candidates then we have for closer. I see no reason to waste time on a free agent starter. I seem to remember the phrase "grow the arms, buy the bats", did I miss something?
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Yes, but there is one closer and five starters. Plus, you can count on injuries and you don't which of those from the minors will pan out or not, so you always need starters and depth there. - Steve