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What a waste of a flight... $40M?!? Here's one time when I applaude the Orioles for not opening their checkbooks. That's ridiculous.

Roch,

I have a blog suggestion for you:

"If signing CHin Ming is Wang, I don't want to be right."

Not that I want to steel your thunder but was thinking about the odds that Wang would fit Andys "low risk high reward" lable for looking at another veteren starter? I think Wang would like to get a little revenge on the Yankees for dumping him "to Soon".

your thoughts?
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Great title! That's a keeper. Wang certainly would appear to fit that label. - Roch

Roch . . . what is the reasoning behind sending your scouts to check Chapman out when there is little to no chance you are going to sign him. Wouldn't it make more sense to allocate those resources somewhere where there are actually real honest to God players that we might actually sign. Is the kabuki theatre of all of this really going to help us with international free agents in the future?
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It's only a plane ticket to Houston. And they wanted to take another look at him. I don't think they'll sign him, but they're not conceding anything yet. And let's face it, they'd get ripped by most fans for not attending the bullpen session. - Roch

Off O's topic but thought it was interesting to pass along. I just read that Phil Humber signed with the Royals. So I decided to do a little research and found that not a single player from the Johan Santana trade is currently with the Twins.

Guerra is gone.
Mulvey is with the D-Backs.
Humber is with the Royals.
Gomez was traded straight up for JJ Hardy.

So the Twins basically got JJ Hardy for Santana STRAIGHT UP!

To everyone wanting Andy MacPhail to get on the phones and make all these deals (Chapman included), be careful what you wish for.

I didn't look to see if the same GM that traded Santana is the current Twins GM, but he's a lucky man if he still has a job!

Roch, I never comment but I have followed the Orioles religiously and now feel compelled to express my feelings. I am a supporter of Andy M and believe he and I were the only two people on earth who believed in Felix Pia at the beginning of last year. Having said that, I believe that Andy can field a pennant challenging team right now in 2010 if he makes the following moves:
1) Trade for M Cabreara
2) Sign Beltre
3) Sigh Sheets or Bedard and
4) Sign Capps or Rodney.
I don't believe we have to wait for and worry about blocking Bell and others. Anything can happen to them along the way. As I follow these winter exercises, I feel that I am reading or watching Samuel Becketts play, "Waiting for Godot". A story of hope, buy Godot never comes. The story gets repeated every year. I am beginning to feel that way about the Orioles, just waiting for Godot. Thanks. RAN

I would really like to see Chapman in the O's system to come up along with arrietta, patton, and erbe as the next wave. With that said I would love to see the andy make a move to bring in a nice young 1st baseman for this year, like a billy butler. What do you think would take to bring him in? Maybe Felix Pie, brandon snyder, troy patton or guthrie if we bring in bredard.

I think that would be giving up to much for a good young player that is close to proven. Do you think that would be enough? Am i just hopeful thinking that something like this will happen or is it a possibility?

Thanks
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I don't know how much the Royals would want for him, but I really don't think that's a possibility. - Roch

Ron of WB...I basically w/ you.
I said about a week ago that I didn't think the O's were that far away.
However, I do question M Cabrera though.
This guy was a stud at 3b for the Marlins, but literally ate himself to 1b. I don't know how to wrap my arms around that type of personal commitment to excellence...but he can rake.
Love to see him 30# lighter and at 3b, but then the Tigers wouldn't trade him.
Also, I'm not willing to give up any of the players it would require to obtain this tub of lard...neither is AM.
How about signing Glaus w/out giving up anything?

are rotation would be so much better then last year with champan,
millwood
matuz
guthrie
bergensen
champan

that would be sick, its nice dreaming

Sign him Orioles. Do whatever it takes, we need something to get exited about. Overpay, please. I can't take another sub .500 season of being the Washington Generals.

What is with Yu Darvish Is he still coming to the USA? How much is he looking for?
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Again, you've stumped me. I really don't know, and I feel like I keep letting you down. Sorry. - Roch

Interesting........

Bill Ladson spoke with Marquis who seemed very interested in pitching for the Nationals. Marquis indicated that he likes serving as a mentor for younger pitchers and wants to be part of a team that "making the moves that is necessary to get themselves back to being a winning organization." He pointed to several moves the Nationals have made that suggest they are that team.

Hmmm......Don't the Orioles fit into that category?

Adding this kid would show the fans alot. Im not getting my hopes up, but this is one of the smartest things the club could do.

Keys Fan,

If for some obscure reason Aroldis was smittend as a boy by the old Black and Orange playing his hometown comm-rads and he's willing to hold out to the last moment for our nice low end offer....... he will still not make us a .500 team. On the brightside, he might be down with your Keys this spring trying locate his pitches!

I really think the O's need to make a splash this time with Chapman. He's interested, we have to be interested in a flame throwing lefty, lets make this thing happen. Us O's fans are sitting around watching the Sox get Lackey, Yanks get Granderson and Jays get a trio of top prospects. Everyone else is getting better, all while we seem to be standing pat.

Roch, % chance that we actually sign this guy?? Thanks.
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Can't give a percentage, but I think it's extremely unlikely because teams like the Yankees and Red Sox will jack up the price. - Roch

sal said:

are rotation would be so much better then last year with champan,
millwood
matuz
guthrie
bergensen
champan

that would be sick, its nice dreaming
December 15, 2009 8:21 PM

Keys Fan said:

Sign him Orioles. Do whatever it takes, we need something to get exited about. Overpay, please. I can't take another sub .500 season of being the Washington Generals.
December 15, 2009 9:13 PM
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Amazing...fans screaming back and forth about signing or not signing Beltre, Delgado, Capps, trading for Millwood, etc but you want to throw $40 million at a guy who hasn't thrown one pitch at the ML level, nor even face competition on a regular basis against teams in Japan. Please explain how getting someone like that would be "so much better" than signing Bedard again and/or having Tillman in the rotation?

The only way to add talent to an organization is to either draft players (which every team gets to do) or spend money (which teams can do to varying degrees). By definition, trading players is a net zero gain over time - sure you can get lucky, but eventually things will even out. With the O's payroll where it is at, we have an opportunity to add significant talent to the organization without having to give anything up other than cash. A Chapman signing (say 5 years for $22M) would add the number two prospect in the game and allow the O's to potentially trade a Tillman or an Arrietta (along with other prospects) for a significant bat. To keep pace in the AL East, these are the types of things a team must be willing to do. Just my opinion.

Darvish will not be a free agent in Japan until 2014. As I recall, so far he's expressed disinterest in coming to Major League Baseball, but I can't for the life of me find a source for that.

Here's an ESPN article on him:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=darvish

I have to admit, all of the negativity around here is kind of a bummer. We are not even a week removed from the end of the winter meetings and some people are acting like the season is over already, the O's only won 55 games, and Andy MacPhail is to blame for it all. Relax everybody. Signing Millwood was a big move for the organization. Let's just see how the rest of this thing plays out. If we go into Spring Training without doing anything else, then fine, B&C all you want. But honestly, it gets really tiresome at times,reading posts from the "doom and gloom" fans who can't see progress. This team is in better shape than it has been in a long time and I believe we are headed for MUCH greener pastures. Go Birds.

Signing Chapman would be a TERRIBLE move.

How can this team justify offering $40m for an uproven commodity but not $36 for Figgens?

None of this really matters. Chapman will sign somewhere else and Andy will stand on the sideline as always, waving his hankerchief.

This is Birdland.

LOL
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There isn't a single report out there that says the Orioles would even come close to offering $40 million. That's one reason they immediately were deemed out of the running for him. - Roch

I am a bit late to school tonight. It's been a crazy few weeks here in Oz and it looks like the Brummie world tour will be moving on in January, probably to Germany and then maybe back to the US. I need a new job.......

As for the MASN announcers, it is a sad day when Buck leaves. He was the ONLY objective and well rounded announcer the station has. Palmer is decent but I get sick hearing about pitching pitching pitching. I want to know about why it is difficult for a leftfielder to play in right. I want to know how Wieters has adapted to throwing out guys.

I guess we'll get Dempsey or some other corporate robot who just tows the company line and praises Andy to the heavens.

It's ashame Hunter didn't follow Buck out the door. He would NOT be missed.

Roch,

Has anyone really scouted this guy? Is there any consensus on what his ceiling might be? If he doesn't rate out as a top of the rotation {1 or 2} starter, then stay away. If no one has seen him really pitch, stay away.

I find it interesting that his big audition turned out to be a warm up session. Makes me wonder what his agents might be trying to hide.

Baldy
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Stockstill has scouted him extensively and really likes him. - Roch

I think we should consider this, players usually play harder for teams they like and are not there just for the money.I dont think we should give him a blank check either.

I was also wondering about Chien-ming Wang

Chris said:
How about comfirming something important?
Like Andy finally doing something to improve this team?

Oh that is right, I didnt start the day out right by praising Ole Might Andy

Brummie...you out of everyone telling me to tone it down? When someone finally has enough of this regime and the puppets who condone this type of ownership...you ask to tone it down? If people just sit back and condone this type of behavior, they are in all essence, part of the problem. Roch sees what is going on and he wont write anything critical of this front office. If you are not part of the solution, you are the problem!

Just like Andy is holding everyone accountable, that too goes for the people who promote this type of irrational ownership!

---------------------------------------------

Chris, you know I have ZERO respect for the Front office and ownership. and you know I enjoy your posts.

I was just suggesting that you tone down your hostility towards Roch. It never gets anywhere nor is it necessary.

Roch and I have butted heads many a time and he will ALWAYS win. It is his blog. Period. And I respect that just as I respect the lines in the sand he draws with me.

If you respect Roch, generally he lets most other comments on here slide by.

That's all I am saying. Keep up the criticism of the FO. They deserve it. But please please please lay off of Roch unless you want to be banned.

Cheers,
Brummie

Roch-

40 million was just what the Rumor was from the media.

If Strassburg got 15.5, Chapman, who is 21 I believe, will get in that ballpark. It makes sense, if he was in the draft he would be the #1 pick.
Not many lefties get 100+.

Anyway, this is all just another reason why MLB HAS GOT TO FIX THE DRAFT.
There should be 1 draft just like in every other sport. NO INT free agents.

It's almost like the way it is now is just to benefit the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers. So, they can draft a 1st rounder, then sign multiple "would be" 1st rounders on the FA market. It's total BS.

For the life of me I still can't understand how this kid can be that good. What experience does he have (a reliable source) that he's really all that? Liz and Cabrera could sure throw the ball real hard. I could just be ignorant on this. Hey all you baseball guru geeks (and I mean that in a complimentary way), why is this guy worth so much?

My point of reference before was Strasburg. What did he get, $14 million (which is also absurd)? Somebody set me straight on this.

What faith do we have going into 2010? Are we going to sit around and wait for Atkins to get sign? I mean why isn't AM making offers

I don't know whether it's more disheartening being an Orioles fan during the season (watching the team being overwhelmed by superior personnel every night), or this time of year when we eagerly hold out hope for a better tomorrow only to see those hopes dashed by the teams we've been looking up to for a decade jumping through hoops to outdo each other. Take the last week for example. The Orioles improved themselves (in my opinion) by adding Kevin Millwood, but the Yankees traded for an All-Star in Granderson and the Red Sox countered by signing another former All-Star in Lackey, upgraded shortstop by signing Scutaro and moved quickly to try to fill the void left by Bay's departure by signing Mike Cameron. While the off season hasn't ended and the Orioles will add more players, so most likely will their AL East competitors. We finished 31 games behind NY and 20 or so behind Boston. So far, does anyone think we've closed the gap?

I think any objective analysis would conclude that the Orioles are making progress and moving in the right direction in so far as getting younger, becoming more athletic and improving the level of talent. In any other division in baseball, their game plan would probably succeed because teams at the top (like the Angels) would lose some players partly due to their success and come back to the pack allowing others (perhaps the Mariners or Rangers in 2010) to dethrone them. This model WILL NOT work in the AL East. There's a reason why the Yankees have been to the playoffs in 14 out of the past 15 seasons, and Boston has won two championships in the past 6 seasons. Perhaps a good analogy is where a person decides to plant tomatoes. He gets good top soil, nurtures the plants with water and food and, while losing a few tomatoes along the way, realizes a good crop near the end of summer. However, when he takes some to his neighbor, he discovers that the neighbor had gone to the market and purchased even bigger and better ones.

I know there are some here who have written that the Orioles have competed successfully against NY and Boston for 50 years, and we can again. Unfortunately, this ignores the increasing financial disparity between them and us that has emerged over the past ten years. It's like saying that U.S. automakers competed successfully against their Japanese and German competitors for 50 years since WWII. Well, how's it gone in the past ten years regarding market share and profits? The Yankees raise an additional $11 million for every 50 cent p/month increase they charge to receive the YES network. [By the way, where is all that MASN money we were promised would be reinvested in the team?]

In order for the Orioles to be able to compete on a sustained basis, we must get close enough to the "big two" that quality free agents believe that their signing with the O's can get us over the top. Don't know exactly what that number is, but let's say it's 8-10 games back. Where we are now, no FA thinks that we can there quickly. Roy Halladay said just today that he wanted to sign with a team that "consistently had a chance to win." Unfortunately, this doesn't describe the current Orioles.

Team management needs to take some risks in order to get close enough to those we're pursuing. This means we're going to swing and miss some times. And it's going to cost us money. The biggest problem I have with the current approach is that it appears inconsistent. Andy MacPhail has stated that one tries to draft/acquire as many "assets" as possible in order to develop them or use them in trades. Yet, he has also stated that we won't trade any tier one prospects to acquire a big bat. Well, I thought the reason for developing tier one prospects is that some (not all) of them could be swapped for other "assets" for position(s) of need in the right deal.

We're not active in the International arena even when the money doesn't appear to be significant and we're not going head-to-head with the big boys. Miguel Sano signed with the Twins for less than half of what Matt Wieters received, yet we passed because of concerns about his getting a work visa. The Twins surmounted this by tying Sano's ability to receive the money to his getting the visa. Our foray into the Asian market is limited to 35 year old guys whose best days are long behind them.

So if we're not a likely destination for elite free agents, we're not willing to trade some of our top prospects to acquire a big bat and we're not a factor with up-and-coming international free agents, just how are we going to close the gap? On top of this, if the goal is to develop as many assets as quickly as possible, why did we use the fifth pick in this year's amateur draft to select a high school pitcher who, according to Orioles scouting director Joe Johnson said, would be on a five year plan to reach the majors? Wasn't there anyone out there who could have developed faster in order to become one of those "assets"?

Roch commented today that, once they identify someone the team wants, they should pursue him. Yet, in this blog, he also reported that we're not prepared to make an offer to Chapman. In this same vein, Dan Connolly wrote Tuesday night in the Sun that Fernando Rodney heads the Orioles closers list, but that we're not moving forward with an offer.

I think Andy MacPhail is a very experienced and knowledgeable baseball man. I think he is also plodding and reactive, and more concerned about making a mistake than he is to seize upon an opportunity. One can be bold without being reckless. This is what we need to do to get where we need to be----within striking distance of NY and Boston.

The sad truth is that the "small market" KC Royals (being in the AL Central) probably have a better chance to reach the playoffs before the O's.

Roch

I hope they dont sign him, he dont seem like a fit for the O's i think they need to sign Bedard or Ben sheets makes the most sence to me. But i would rather bedard because if he can come back and pitch like he used to the O's would make the playoffs with Millwood added it would be sweet. But i think that the O's need to make these deals tell me wut u think.

O's sign bedard

And for 3rd base im going to say troy glaus he will come dirt cheap and hes got power like dave wanted at 3rd and hes got a ok glove.

For 1st idk i like Huff but do you kno anything about him commen back to Baltimore?
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The Orioles haven't expressed any interest. He'd love to return. - Roch

Hey Roch: I read where Chapman's pitches topped out at 96 miles per hour and that he routinely hit 92-93 miles per hour. Good speed! I can see why a lot of clubs are kicking the tires.

Kansas City is working a "Hot Rumor" that Erik Bedard will sign a contract with KC this week for one year, $3.5 to $4 million. They are going so far as to discuss how he would fit into the rotation. Some fans are going nuts over the potential signing, pointing to his recent record. Others think he has the potential to be their new ace. Some things never change.

Hey Roch, would you make this trade if you were the O's? the Padres?

Felix Pie, Luke Scott, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Jason Berken, and Brandon Snyder for Adrian Gonzalez & Kevin Kouzmanoff.
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I'm not a big fan of imaginary trades and playing GM. I leave that to the readers. But I'd hate to lose Tillman, and Kouzmanoff gets mixed reviews. I'll let others jump in with their thoughts. - Roch

I can't imagine us having even a remote shot at Chapman after getting outbid by the Twins for Sano. Sano signed for what $3.2 million and Stockstill raved over him. The Twins had a contingency in his contract so that if he was found to be older than reported or not able to work in the U.S. the contract was void which we would've done too.

So if the highest rated prospect out of the Dominican Republic ever at $3.2 million is too expensive for the O's...than Chapman is as well.

That's just reality...not me being negative.

No point in any O's fan getting hopes up over us getting Chapman. I was reading on the Sun that we are going after another over the hill Japanese, mid-30s, reliever though so our international presence is really ramping up!

Every time you think the O's management can't get any dumber just wait 5 minutes for their next press release. The O's are interested in the closer Capp but Capp wants some certianity he'd be the closer. Oh no, the O's want him to compete with the likes of Jim Johnson,Koji an Miciloto.Jim Johnson showed he wasn't closer material last year. Koji will spend most of the time on the Dl again next year as he milks another $5 million out of the team.He's a prima donna hypochonriac.Michiloto hasn't even proved he belongs in the majors let alone being a candidate for closer.The O's biggest need this off season was to improve the bullpen which was among the worst in the majors last year and we're basically bringing back the same cast of deadbeats. Thanks god the Rangers were stupid enough to take Chis ray off our hands. Bass will get a sprig training invite and they'll probably resign Henrickson because we're the only team that would.

The O's do the same thing every year. Watch the good talent go off the market then swoop in overpaying the remaining scrubs on the market or some rehab reclamation projects.The low risk high reward usually ends up high risk low reward.

Every one of these agents are telling the O's that they want to wait to see if a good team makes them an offer an they'll get back to the O's if all else fails.This is nothing but voodoo team building.
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Just to avoid any confusion, that information didn't come from a team-issued press release. - Roch

Well played Reality check!!!! Especially now with Lackey coming over to Boston, I would sign Bedard no matter when he was coming back.

i hate to be one to compain, but i dont understand why we didnt get sano?
i do like the way the minors have improved and hopefully were starting to see it at mlb level. it seem to me if we would have gotten sano and mabey chapman, that we could trade some of the talent in the minors for the power hitter we need and still have plenty left.

This is a risk yes....but it would be a nice risk for us fans. Now if he gets 40mm forget about it, but realistically Im thinking a 5 yr/22.5mm will get the deal done.

Let him do the AAA thing in the beginning of the yr and see how that goes. Maybe he stays there, or maybe he shoves and gets promoted. Now if everyone pans out and we have a surplus, imagine the haul you get for moving him if he pans out.

Yes its a risk, but I would take the chance. Roch would you sign him to 5yr/22.5mm deal?
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It's not my money, but I wouldn't get in a huge bidding war for him. If I'm going to do that, it has to be for a more proven commodity. - Roch

C.J. said:

Felix Pie, Luke Scott, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Jason Berken, and Brandon Snyder for Adrian Gonzalez & Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Realistically, the Padres wouldn't want Scott because of his arbitration status, and the money he would stand to make.

That caveat aside, I would be dashed tempted to make a deal like that. The obvious proviso is that we would need one of those 72-hour windows the Phillies had with Halladay to negotiate an extension with Gonzalez.

I don't really like playing fantasy GM either, and that's mainly because most of the proposed trades here are, quite honestly, ludicrous for the team other than the Orioles. This one, however, was well-constructed (with the exception of Scott, who could be replaced in the deal fairly easily).

"C. J. said:
Hey Roch, would you make this trade if you were the O's? the Padres?

Felix Pie, Luke Scott, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Jason Berken, and Brandon Snyder for Adrian Gonzalez & Kevin Kouzmanoff."

Dr. Tom and I were just discussing this one and we agree they won't want Scott. I would replace him with a AA player in a position they need because all the players mentioned can be on their opening day roster. I would also consider holding on to Berken and sending Albers, at least in the first trade proposal.

I would then trade Scott for Lowe to replace Tillman, overpay to get Chapman and look to sign a quality fourth outfielder via free agency. Maybe it's a good thing I am not in charge.

C.J. - thanks for a realistic trade proposal. Most of them revolve around trading Berken for Pujols or something else equally ridiculous.

Roch,
Do you think the O's are looking at Chapman as a closer?
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Not at this point. I think they're determining whether he's better suited to start right now or work out of the 'pen, but I doubt it would be as a ninth-inning specialist. - Roch

Yu Darvish just signed a huge contract to remain pitching in Japan. He won't come to the US until his Japanese team is willing to post his rights.

He's another super highly touted pitcher in Japan in the vein of Daisuke.