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Jim Johnson is the best choice for closer. He barely got an opportunity and I think, with some time to adjust, he could be as good as any closer on the market. My vote (as if I have one (c:), is for Koji to be the 8th inning guy and J.J. to be the closer. There is more upside that way and they could easily be reversed if it isn't working out 1/3 of the way through the year. Also, if Kam M. is pitching great, he could be slotted into either role if Koji or J.J. is struggling. I think money is better spent on a power-hitter than mediocre closers. Closers come and go and are very unpredictable, especially the mediocre ones.

Valverde is a beast

I'd go with Uehara. No reason to waste a draft pick on Gonzalez or Valverde and no reason to employ someone like Capps, Rodney, or Gregg with Uehara, Mickolio, and Johnson as back end bullpen arms.

Also, I don't know if it has been mentioned on here, but having Steve Johnson selected in the Rule 5 draft is actually a safer gamble than adding him to the 40 man roster. If he was added to the 40 man, then had to be taken off to make room for a free agent/trade/roster call up, he would need to be designated for assignment in which case any team could claim him to their own 40 man roster, without the possibility of coming back to the Orioles unless he was designated again by his new team. Being selected in the Rule 5 means that he has to be on the 25 man roster or get offered back to the Orioles, a highly likely scenario, in which case he'd be protected until next year.

Roch...I'd say Valverde or Gonzales are our best options...let's not even talk about Rodney and let's not even dream about Gregg. Capps could be an interesting option and worth a shot. I don't even like the idea of experimenting w/anyone in our system now. I think w/the addition of Millwood and possibly getting Bedard, we really need someone who is proven to close out games because I think we're going to be a lot more competitive this year and will need a good 9th inning guy. Just one big bat please, also! Even Jim Thome. I'll take a DH signed for a year w/maybe an option, but I'd like to give Snyder and Bell a chance at some point this year to see what they have to offer. Snyder still worries me. I wouldn't be opposed to trading one of our prospects (Tillman, not Matusz) for a first baseman or even a shortstop which we'll eventually need who we can lock up long term.

Roch - agreed on Valverde. He would make a nice addition - solidifying not only the closer role, but allowing all of our other guys to remain in set-up and middle relief roles. Could be a nice bullpen with a little luck.

Theres one big difference between Fernando Rodney and Armando Blownitez though Roch.

Hitters could sit on Armando's fastball and Rodney has a filthy strike you out changeup.

Get him in here.

I'm with you on Valverde Roch. NO to Rodney, that guy coming in is like throwing gasoline on a fire! It seems like that closers usually come out of nowhere much like Koji. If we don't get Valverde then stick to internal, the rest of FA stinks.

Roch, this seems like one of those things where there are lots of plausible solutions but they could all be wrong. I'm glad this isn't my decision to make, but I guess if it were me I'd get one guy from the outside that can be closer or flopped to set-up guy and then pick the best guy in ST. I don't think Kam has enough experience, so it's either going to be Koji (assuming he's healthy) or an outside guy.

I would really like for the Orioles to not spend $10+ M on a guy to pitch 60 mediocre to OK innings a year while they aren't even in contention. None of these guys is likely to be worth the cost, and Valverde will probably be the most expensive despite not being much better than the field. Use internal options, and by the time the time is ready to make a run there's a good chance a "closer" will have emerged.

Hi Roch,
I like your take on the closer situation, especially the idea of Koji becoming our closer. He seemed to excel in that role for a couple years in Japan.

I think Capp may be worth a shot. Perhaps he was just not good enough to the Pirates for a raise on the $2.5m he made last year. But like many of these players with down years (see Atkins, Garrett and Guerrero, Vladimir) there is a risk that their play will continue to trend in the negative direction.

Garko may be a good candidate for 1B. For whatever reason he was much better in the AL with Cleveland than in his short stint with SF last year. I also still think Adam Laroche would be a good acquisition if we could get him.

Thanks for all the great updates.

I would either sign Rodney or Valverde. The other closers blow to many saves but I really like Rodney because he have a good fastball with a good changeup. Roch do you know if the Orioles are interested in Garland. He has pitching 200 innings a lot over his career.
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Doubtful now that they traded for Millwood. - Roch

I like Valverde, but he wants a fortune and multiple years and costs a draft pick. After the disastrous Walker, Baez, Bradford signings I think we've got to be careful. Rodney also wants way too much, but won't cost a pick.

I think Uehara is a possibility, but I am very wary of his long term staying power in the role. Closers need to be durable, Koji isn't.

I'd like us to pick up Capps, but not in the closer role. Maybe acquiring someone like Kiki Calero might be useful.

The guy I like the most is Jose Arredondo. He'll be coming off TJ surgery, and if Kam or Koji can hold the fort until then it'd be worth it. Other options are let someone like David Hernandez close.

I think Valverde is the only reliable closer left on the market, but I still think we can fill that spot with a pitcher we already have if we have too. Finding a closer should be lower on Andy's "to do list" than a bat and the corner infield spots. I like Mickilio there, I think he has the stuff to close games, koji could be the guy. I also like David Hernandez for that role, I think he would be great there. JJ could also still be the guy, I think he just had a bad year last year. He'll back to form this year, but I like him better back as the set up man.
I know you can never have enough pitching, but I say sign Bedard, then go work on that big bat we need. If we could do that and get someone to play 3rd till Bell is ready, I'd be happy. If that big bat happens to be a 3rd baseman or a DH, I'm ok going into the season with who we already have to play first if need be. But as I said many times, we can't start the season with Wiggington as our everyday 3rd baseman. I like Ty as a back up infielder, but he kinda scares me at 3rd base.

Apparently Rodney and Valverde are looking for 10 million a year for about three years. I think that is a ridiculous price to pay for Rodney, but I could see Valverde getting it. I just don't think the O's need a 10 million dollar per year closer at this point.

Reports are that Valverde wants over 10 mil a year

Brummie_Oriole said:
Morning from Syd. Nights out in this town are PAINFUL on my wallet.

Bye bye Bass! I hope the door hits your fat butt on the way out!

Nice to see Andy decided to keep Albers around. The guy is TERRIBLE, yet we continue to hold down a roster spot for him.

I guess we're in for another year of pathetic bullpen outings. At least the Yankees and Red Sox will be happy.

BRUMMIE....You don't have to worry about any pathetic outings from 3 former members.....Another piece of deadwood has been sent floating down cesspool river... / addition by subtraction.....( - Baez ) + ( - Ray ) + ( - Bass ) = +++ bullpen....NOW QUIT FOOLING AROUND AND SIGN VALVERDE

I can't remember who originally suggested it on this blog (perhaps Ken Francis?), but I'd love to see Erik Bedard closing games. Think about that for just a second. He would be utterly dominant - high K-rate, low WHIP - and the reduced workload might keep him healthy for the long haul.

I don't know whether Bedard himself would be into the idea, but, healthy, he could be an elite closer for years.

I could see Koji working out, but given his medical issues it's a big gamble to count on it.

I agree with capella. Rodney's changeup is devistating. Everyone knows it's coming just like Rivera's spliter, but they still can't hit it.
Comparing him to Armando is crazy. He can control his stuff.
Sign him Orioles.

Roch,
What about Darren Oliver for lefty in bullpen?
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Haven't heard his name. - Roch

If Rodney had posted a 4.40 ERA for the Orioles last year, would we be clamoring to re-sign him? The grass isn't always greener.

I say go after Capps and then add another solid reliever maybe Joe Beimel or someone of that ilk. I'd much prefer that to signing Rodney (who wants $10 million) or Valverde (who will want just as much if not more). Long term deals for relievers don't really work. Bradford, Walker and Baez all didn't work out, and those deals were light years better then the deals for Ryan, Wagner, F. Cordero, we've seen lately. The deals last year for K-rod and Fuentes are already biting the Angels and Mets some as well. I don't think it makes sense to overpay for relief help. Not to mention I would be hesitant to give up a draft pick for a reliever not named Rivera, Nathan or Papelbon.

A back of a bullpen with Koji, Johnson, Hendrickson, Kam, Capps and say Biemel would be pretty good and have a nice mix of power and finesse guys, as well as lefty-righty (the other spot or two can be filled by whoever doesn't make the rotation or guys like Albers and Safarte).

Another thing the O's should look into for their long term bullpen help is Jose Arredondo who was non-tendered by the Angels. He won't pitch this year b/c of TJ surgery, but if i'm not mistaken he'll still be under team control for 2 or 3 more seasons after this one. Sign him and all he costs is a roster spot on the 40 man until the season starts, then just keep him on the 60 day DL.

I see what you did, Roch: "closer to a closer"

I've had Capps, Gregg and Valverde on fantasy teams the past three years and each has performed well. I couldn't really argue with any of them. I think Gregg could benefit from reuniting with Kranitz, Capps could benefit from not being on the Pirates roster and Valverde could be good period if he stays healthy.

We need to go after Capps NOW! Can't believe the Pirates non-tendered him.

Hooves said: I can't remember who originally suggested it on this blog (perhaps Ken Francis?), but I'd love to see Erik Bedard closing games. Think about that for just a second. He would be utterly dominant - high K-rate, low WHIP - and the reduced workload might keep him healthy for the long haul

I mention Bedard as a closer about a month ago, sounded good at the time. I don't know how Bedard or the Orioles would feel about it. He seems perfect for it to me, and he seems to have the attitude for it.
If the Angels non-tendered Arrendondo we should definitely take a chance on him. He was very good in 2008, we all thought he was going to replace K-Rod when he left. Someone will grab him quickly. Roch, do the Orioles have any interest in Jack Cust? I know he wasn't very well liked when he was here before, but he has some power and a good OBP. What about Jonny Gomes or Ryan Garko?
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Again, these guys just became available. I can't call a team official and start doing a roll call of players they might be interested in. They had some interest in Garko last winter, at least enough that his name was kicked around. But don't know about this winter. - Roch

Pass on Capps. He is louzy.

I'd sign Capps and let him compete with Koji for the job. I don't think Valverde is worth his asking price (or the draft pick you'd have to surrender) and I don't think Rodney or Gonzalez are real closers.

And then cross your fingers for Kam Mickolio down the road.

Sorry Roch, didn't mean to tick you off! Was just asking.
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You didn't, and sorry if I came across that way. I'm just being asked about a bunch of these non-tenders and don't really have an answer. It's hard enough getting a feel for what MacPhail is doing with guys who have been available for a while. - Roch

Roch what are your thoughts on the O's bringing in Chein-Ming Wang? He seems like he fits the incentive based salary due to injury last season
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I've been asked about him many times. You can toss him into that incentive-ladened mix, but it seems like the Orioles would prefer Bedard. And don't be shocked if the Yankees re-sign him. - Roch

Roch,

It's nice to see your evaluation of the available closers. I'd like to see a similar piece on corner infielders.

Jim Carter

Kool, so I don't have to go to the principal office?
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You don't even have to clean the erasers. - Roch

west coast O's fan: You suggested Bedard as a closer. Since the Millwood signing I'm going to adjust my proposed likelihood of the O's signing Bedard from 10% to at least 50%, based partly on my feeling that he'd probably like to come back and also upon his apparent projection to be pitching in April or May.

That said, I don't see how Bedard would be interested in becoming a closer, or how the team would be smart to do it, since he's worth more as a starter. Mariano Rivera, for instance, averages about a 3.6 WAR. Johan Santana during his fully healthy years was above 6. And, especially if Erik signs a one-year deal, he's going to want to go on the market the year after as a starter, not a closer, since he'll make more that way. You suggest closing would be easier on his arm, but I don't know of any evidence that closers get hurt any less than starters do. Do you? A couple of high profile starters have made this transition (Smoltz and Eck spring to mind) but it seems pretty rare.

I've been saying for some time now that Koji (if healthy) should be the #1 candidate for the job. None of the external options outside of Soriano who was already traded interested me.

The fact that guys like Joakim Soria, Heath Bell, Ryan Franklin, David Aardsma, and even our very own guys like B.J. Ryan, Chris Ray, and George Sherrill should prove to everybody that you can find a closer virtually anywhere. Soria was a rule 5 pick, Bell and Franklin were failed starters, Aardsma was a journeyman reliever, B.J. and Ray were rookies from our system, and Sherrill was a guy out of the Independent League and a lefty specialist turned closer here.

If the health report on Koji isn't favorable, I take a look at the leftover starters and relievers, see who throws hard with a modicum of control and I bring them in here as an insurance policy closer. Otherwise I take a look at other in house arms like Mickolio.

Kam looked very impressive at times with the Tides. I don't know if he's ready to be a major league closer this spring, but I have a hunch that he will fill that role sooner or later.

Go with Koji at closer. He has experience, he does give up too many homers, and best of all he doesn't walk many. To me that is so big for a closer.

Roch-
Valverde is the obvious choice. We would lose a 2nd round pick which is WELL worth it. Chances of the 2nd rounder panning out as good as Valverde is very slim.

OCJ,
I only suggested Bedard as a closer because I think he would be good at it, and because he has a hard time throwing the innings a starter needs to throw. I also qualified my suggestion by saying that I didn't know how he or the Orioles felt about it. It was really more of a, what do you think about Bedard as a closer thing, than anything else. Just trying to get a feel for what everyone thought about it. Trying to think out of the box.
As for the likelyhood of injury, I would think the fewer innings on his arm couldn't hurt. He just seems like he has the stuff to close, and the mental make up for it. It may be something he trys later in his career.
As for how many closers have been starters, I have no idea. You mention a couple pretty good ones. I'm sure most ML relief pitchers have started at some point in there career.

Who cares how much Valverde would ask for? He's proved himself to be a reliable closer. If we are going to sign a closer, he's the obvious choice. Bedard as a closer is interesting idea but I doubt anyone would actually consider it.

Roch, what are your thoughts on Bedard as a potential closer?
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He's never done it and I doubt he'd sign with a team that would make him one. - Roch

I like Valverde, but I think $10 mil a year for a closer is a little step. I'd try to get him to come down a bit. If he signs great, if not I'd look else where.

PASS on Rodney. Too many walks and not enough K's, given his good fastball and changeup. He should miss more bats than he does.

If Valverde wants over $10m a year, that's unfortunate. I'd love to see him come here, but there's no way I'd pay anyone that much money to pitch 70 innings a year. If his salary desires come down into the $8m range, then we might have something.

Kevin Gregg worries me as a closer, though I like him as a setup man. Capps is a good candidate for a bounce-back year. That unsightly ERA is the result of a .370 BABIP (his career number is .299), and a 13.5% HR/Flyball rate. Those numbers are way out of line with his career norms, so I think he could return to form. His K/BB numbers remained solid (though his walk rate did increase).

My suggestion: sign Capps and have him compete with a healthy Koji. May the better man close.

But you'd have to agree, he'd be bad-*ss as a closer.

I hope they don't sign Ming Wang. He played for the yankees, put him with Mussina and Singleton. I love that they are looking to resign Bedard. He would look great in that #1 spot in the rotation. He's Amazing, Awesome and any other A-words that would describe a pitcher that would be just as good as anyone else in the #1 spot WHEN HEALTHY.

Mike Gonzalez is a beast.I think you sign him for 2 years so Mickilio can develope.I also like Valverde.