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The problems lies with......
"We both conceded that John Lackey isn't coming here"

Until the media, fans and State of Maryland stop accepting the "cheapness" of this ownerhip and FO, rediculous comments like this will reign.

There is NO excuse for not spending the money to place winning team on the field when in FACT they are charging everyone MAJOR LEAGUE prices. They have went over a DECADE without spending any considerable money. They have bank rolled every dollar which came off the books from distant contracts.

Roch...I have a question for you?
WHY CANT THE ORIOLES SPEND MORE MONEY TO GO AFTER the "LACKEY" type players? Better yet, I challenge any poster on here to answer that question? IF there is quality players out there, what holds this organization back from spending the money?

The winter meetings have come and gone and all we hear is "WE CANT" or THEY WONT"
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Slow your roll, Chris. Lackey isn't coming here. It isn't because the Orioles can't afford him. It's because they won't spend that much on a pitcher, and because, if the money is close, he's going to go to a contender. Sorry that the facts are getting you worked up. I could lie and say he'll accept a one-year deal heavy in incentives, or that the Orioles are prepared to top what the Yankees are paying Sabathia, if it makes you feel better. - Roch

Roch,

If in fact the Lowell trade from Boston to the Rangers happens then in your opinion:

(1) Do the O's make a play for Micheal Young for 3b and possibly moving to SS after Izturis contract is up?

(2) Have you heard the FO mention anything about Young?

For a team trying to cut salary the Rangers have picked up Harden Ray and Lowell and only dropped Millwood. I realize that Boston picked up alot of Lowell's contract and Harden had an incentive contract but I wish the O's would cut payroll along those lines.

Thanks
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What if the Rangers decide to play Lowell at first? Don't know their plans, but I haven't heard that Young is now definitely available. But, obviously, if I heard anything from the O's front office about Young, I'd report it. - Roch

I like Luke's theory, and I've always personally agreed with it. I don't see that being a realistic option in the MLB, though. And obviously politically speaking it doesn't work to put butts in the seats when you are virtually conceding defeat before the first pitch.

I still like that kind of outside-the-box thinking, though.

Gotta love Luke!

What was Adam Eaton? A Pinto or a Gremlin?
I have always wondered why we didn't match our 5 against another team's ace. You all but concede that one game but greatly improve you odds for 80% of your games. As a mathematician, I like those odds.

Not so sure I agree with Luke completely. If memory serves correctly the O's were able to play respectably against the big dog pitchers ... it was the 4 & 5 guys of other teams - the ones you're supposed to beat - that made our lineup look like a collection of pre-schoolers, for some reason.

Always about the weapons, isn't he?

There seem to an order to the player AM is trying to acquire. First the starter - done, then 3rd, then a closer, then another bat, then the "risky" starter. Does that seem to be accurate or am I reading more into the blogs/reports than is there?

Also, with Jenks getting released, do you know if he goes on the "possible" list or is he not of interest to the O's?
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I don't think there's a particular order. The No. 1 starter did seem to be the top priority at the meetings. Now you get any deal done that advances the quickest. As for Jenks, I really don't know. There are a bunch of guys who just became available, but the front office isn't going to rattle off names of the ones they like. It's a frustrating process. - Roch

Roch said:

Slow your roll, Chris.

That's pretty funny for a Monday morning there Roch (and appropriate). The only time I heard that used before was in Undercover Brother. Somehow it was funnier here.

I don't totally agree w/ Luke. Yes, our young guys haven't been around as long as the Sabathia's, Halladay's & Beckett's, but their stuff is good enough to give them a fighting chance. I mean lets be honest, Chris Tillman is not Adam Eaton.

Hey Roch, do you know what Bedard's lifetime record is against the Sox & Spankees? I remember him pitching pretty well against them (when he pitched!)
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Don't know. Would have to research it. Maybe baseball-reference.com has it. - Roch

mstrchef13-

I am no brummie fan. I actually think he's a huge tool. However, technically, the team is like a publically traded company and the fans are the stockholders. Taxpayers build the stadium, and pay for everything.
So, they do owe explanations on why they do things and don't do things.

It's why it is very important team members and coaches have to be open to press conferences and interviews. That is how they communicate with the fans.

I know what your saying though. It isn't smart for the Front Office to show their specific hands.

I don't understand why Brummie is so stupid. He keeps asking, whats the plan, what now? Macphail has said it 8 million times. Grow the arms and buy the bats.
The last 2 seasons have been about getting us in position to have 5 top arms. Hopefully, we can get to a point where we have 5 front end arms. NO ONE has 5. Most don't have 2 or 3.
Now, as the arms are here, and growing, we are trying to do the smartest thing with the core position players and prospects. Get some help for them, some protection, but at the same time don't do anything that will impede their growth. Hence not rushing to get someone for 3rd that will not be able to replace when and if Bell is ready.

ALSO, don't make any significant fiscal mistakes, so that when Jones, Reimold, Weiters, Tillman, Matusz, etc. when they get to their arbitration years and free agent years, we have enough money to lock the best ones up for long term deals.
Hopefully Reimold turns into a 35+ HR righty, like they want now, except in 3 or 4 years, we will have him, and won't have to spend on the FA market.

but Brummie is a dope. So he just likes to make noise.

I'm sure Dave Trembelly is all for this pitching matchup strategy. He could run his B lineup (as he is so fond of doing) on that day as well. Really give it to the few O's fans left.

I may be in the minority on this but I really don't like the defeatist attitude. The Yankees are getting old and haven't done anything to address it this offseason. Sabathia was great last year but he also has a lot of miles on his arm the past three seasons and the rest of the Yankee rotation is shaky (Burnett led the Al in walks, Petitte ain't getting younger, Joba/Hughes have proven nothing as starters). The O's are younger, as good or better at 5 positions in the order as the Yankees (all 3 outfield spots, DH, catcher) and they have a decent rotation. It almost seems like defeat is being conceded before stepping on the field. That was okay 3 years ago but everyone on the O's should be fired up and conceding nothing going into this year.

Chris said:
The problems lies with......
"We both conceded that John Lackey isn't coming here"

Until the media, fans and State of Maryland stop accepting the "cheapness" of this ownerhip and FO, rediculous comments like this will reign.

There is NO excuse for not spending the money to place winning team on the field when in FACT they are charging everyone MAJOR LEAGUE prices. They have went over a DECADE without spending any considerable money. They have bank rolled every dollar which came off the books from distant contracts.

Roch...I have a question for you?
WHY CANT THE ORIOLES SPEND MORE MONEY TO GO AFTER the "LACKEY" type players? Better yet, I challenge any poster on here to answer that question? IF there is quality players out there, what holds this organization back from spending the money?

The winter meetings have come and gone and all we hear is "WE CANT" or THEY WONT"

Roch,
You do know that this is Jack/Brummie just using his new name?

The only thing I have against starting your #5 VS their #1 is eventually, your #1's are going to end up with LESS starts than your #5's. You don't want that happening.

And I thought you left this blog Jack? "Rediculous" ?????

Chris said:
The problems lies with......
"We both conceded that John Lackey isn't coming here"

Until the media, fans and State of Maryland stop accepting the "cheapness" of this ownerhip and FO, rediculous comments like this will reign.

It's a shame his parents didn't name him Collaborate Scott.

"Tillman is a great talent with tremendous upside, but you're talking about a Cy Young winner. And if you play your cards that way as a team, you're running a Mustang up against a Porsche 911. Your Mustang is still a good car, a fast car, but it's going to lose every race. You just don't have the horses."

____________________________________

It's not the car; it's the driver.

Roch,

I think a healthy Bedard would go a long way to solving things (dominant #1). Frankly I think the Orioles already have corner infield prospects who are as good or better than what they could pick up as a one year rental.

Additionally; unless they get Valverde, I think they'd be better off just looking within the organization for a closer.

Jim Carter

I like Luke, but he just touched on an argument I see all the time that really drives me crazy. Number 1 starters do not always pitch against other number 1 starters. They do not pitch against other number 1 starters even any more often than any other spot in the rotation. I had this argument on another forum last year and I actually took the time to research it (using Josh Beckett from the Red Sox as an example over the course of the 2008 season). I'm not going to do all that legwork again, but Beckett made something like 21% of his starts against the opponent's Opening Day starting pitcher. That's 1 in 5, or almost exactly what you would expect if it was completely random.

Baseball teams have different schedules. They have different off days. Pitchers get injured, rotations get shuffled and guys go on the D.L. The only time "aces" are guaranteed to be matched up with other "aces" is in the first start or two of the season, and even that assumes that every team pitches the guy who ends up being their best pitcher over the course of the season on Opening Day. So getting back to Luke, you could start your fifth starter on Opening Day, but all that would do is make you more likely to lose on Opening Day.

Roch
Question? In the last three years between Weiters, Maturz, Roberts and Markakis and now Millwood, how much money has Mr. Angelos spent? All I hear is what a lousy owner he is ( And I agree) but lately he has laid out some real money. How Much?
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A quick Google search shows Wieters received a $6 mil signing bonus, Matusz a $3.2 mil bonus, Roberts signed a four-year, $40 mil extension and Markakis signed a six-year, $66 mil extension. They're also paying $9 mil of Millwood's contract. - Roch

And this is why ole Luuuuuuuke is a player and not a GM. First off, Lackey isn't coming here and Andy isn't going to sign off on a 30+ year old starter for a 6 year deal. Sorry Luke, Millwood is going to have to do for now. And while you probably won't be here to enjoy the resurgence of the O's, we already have our #1 and his name is Brian Matusz. And furthermore Luke, who were those two pitchers that went up to the Bronx late last year and pitched you guys to wins?

Hey Roch -
Hpe you're enjoying your holidays. How come no one seems to be as excited about Millwood as I am? He had the 7th best ERA in the AL. Better than Beckett, Burnett, Pettit, etc. Is it because he is not a huge name that played for the Yanks, Mets or Sox last year? Also, he put up that ERA in a very similar park to Camden. I know he wasn't in the AL East but he did pitch in the AL. The trade wasn't even on the main baseball page on espn.com but the Nats singing Pudge was. Just curious why this is...
Thanks again for all your hard work.

Luke Scott made an interesting point about putting your #5 versus their #1 but we did a lot of that early last year. I remember because I was posting about it.

At the time he left us, Adam Eaton faced more #1s than Guthrie. He was our sacraficial lamb... he was excellent at it. Didn't help us much, but that could have been a product of what surrounded him.

I like Scott, I'll miss him. You can't be that forthcoming around here.

potter, take some of the profits from the last few years, add in some of the salary dropped from last year's 21st highest payroll , & go $ign Valverde , that's an absolute, & then the best starter you can if that is what everyone thinks they need. Hopefully a 3B or 1B drops in their laps cheap because I am certain the potter clan will have hives by the time they got those 2 prior deals done.

This puts Hernandez &/or Berken in the bullpen or one there & one at AAA getting more experience. Overall, a better rotation AND bullpen.

Forget Atkins... let's just say he is the Brian Giles of 3Bmen....

Roch,
Sorry for being on a roll so early. As long time fan, I am simply tired of ...as you put it
"It's because they won't spend that much on a pitcher"

If they wont spend that much on a pitcher, who will they committ to by spending the money in order to acquire top talent? This organization has pushed the idea of budget baseball down our throats long enough. If they are so intent on charging ML prices at OPACY, then darn it, they should feel an obligation to put the best team on the field.

We always settle for stop gaps or "the big guns wont sign with us" type players. Well...they sign with Seattle, why wont they sign with us. Because we WONT spend .....SPEND the money to secure one or two top tier FA.

I guess for speaking out, I transform from a 42 year fan to a troll. But enough is enough. I cannot wait til fan fest. Mr. MacPhail is going to have a few tough questions to answer. I received my email about renewing my 4 season ticket seats which i have held since 1978. the delete button took care of that. I refuse to support an owner who will not support the fans!

Please dont think I am shooting the messenger? Thank you for all that you do for us. Unfortunately, think how fun your job would be if you worked for a company who at least tried to put a winning club on the field each year like...hmmmm Atlanta, St Louis, Colorado, Bo Sox,Detriot...right or wrong, at least they try!

Personally, Luke my be a nice guy and all, but, he collects his entire years stats, in about 20 games. The other 142 he is an automatic out.

I have always detested hitters that just try to crush the ball every time the come to the plate. Jack Cust, Nick Swisher, the entire Texas line-up.
Because, they end up batting 235, with 30 HR's. Granderson is a case in point.

Ted Williams and Bob Feller used to joke about how the game had changed in the 80's. Feller always said the same thing when asked what was the best way to hit him. He said, "the best way to hit me, is the same way the best hitters hit, just get the bat on the ball. Make contact, use the whole field that way, and your gonna get on 30% of the time."

That's why I'd take a Markakis 100 times out of 100 over a Luke Scott.

I don't know if I like the idea of matching up our #5 with the other team's #1. That makes the matchups:

5v1
1v2
2v3
3v4
4v5

Our 5 should lose to their 1. Our 1 and their 2 should be even, ditto our 2 and their 3. We might have a small advantage in 3v4, and a somewhat larger advantage in 4v5. I don't know if those are enough to offset the big disadvantage of 5v1.

The reality, or course, is that once you get past Opening Day, the 1v1, 2v2, etc matchups aren't guaranteed because of days off, rainouts, and the like.

Re: Lackey. He's not coming here. If the money is close, he'll choose to play for a contender. Personally, I don't like the idea of giving Lackey AJ Burnett money. He's reasonably durable, but for $80+ million, I want a pitcher who's more than just reasonably durable. The silver lining is that Lackey was very positive on our young pitchers in an interview during the season. I don't think that would be enough to persuade him to come to Baltimore, though.

Roch,
Have the O's completly given up on Costanzo? I hear nothing mentioned
about him anywhere......is he not a 3rd baseman?
is he in the plans anywhere?
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It doesn't look good for him at the moment. He's taken a few steps backward. It's up to him to get his name back out there with a healthy and productive stretch. - Roch

I have thought about Luke's pitching matchup scenario before, but realistically I'm not sure it works out as cleanly as he indicates. FIrst of all, outside of the first few opening weeks- do #1s really end up facing each other that much? Tracy's point is also well made that we didn't exactly light up other team's backend of the rotation. Rookie left-handers are in heaven against the Birds.

Luke's comments about the rotation are entirely accurate. It's not about getting 5 capable starters. It's probably about getting 7-8 starters 2-3 who are well above average and probably one stud. We are closer than we have been in a long time. Very important to note the progress before adding criticisms that may even be partially addressed over the winter. I just don't know why we would be looking at retreads *if* better/younger options exist. MacPhail's offseason has been solid to date. Even he is looking for much more, so no need to panic that Millwood is it. Go birds.

Btw, Lions are just brutal. Culpepper can't expose our secondary and he therefore meets criteria for retirement. Rice is a beast. Flacco needs to continue to improve. Refs still stink.

Roch, did you ask him if he'll be spoting a mullet again this year?

Ryan said:
mstrchef13-

I am no brummie fan. I actually think he's a huge tool. However, technically, the team is like a publically traded company and the fans are the stockholders. Taxpayers build the stadium, and pay for everything.
So, they do owe explanations on why they do things and don't do things.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I disagree. Here's an example. Let's say that the Orioles were in on Soriano. Let's say, just as an example, that the Orioles offered Matt Albers. Atlanta said no, and countered by asking for David Hernandez, to which the O's said no. At that point, Atlanta accepted the offer from Tampa Bay.

If MacPhail came out and said all this publicly, what positive effect could any of it have? Albers knows that we tried to trade him away. Hernandez and his agent know that we value him more than Soriano. Atlanta knows that we cannot be trusted to keep trade negotiations a secret. All this, just to pacify a vocal minority who need to know what THE PLAN is?

Let's say that the Orioles were in negotiations for Pedro Feliz. Lets say that the Orioles offered him 2 years for $10MM. We know that he eventually signed with Houston for 1 year and $4.5MM. MacPhail lets it be publicly known what we offered Feliz, with the unsaid between-the-lines comment being that Feliz and his agent were stupid for taking the Houston deal when we clearly offered more money and more years.

Again, who does this help? Feliz' agent probably avoids us with his other clients. Any 3B on the market who thinks that they are better than Feliz now expect the Orioles to offer them more than 2/10. It would be no different than if Feliz' agent took our offer and shopped it around to other teams.

There are things on the business side of baseball that the fans do not need to know, things that if they were known would make it more difficult for the team to do business with other teams.

I guess as a player, you need to be short-sighted but I hope the front office takes the long term view of things and realizes that just because Sabathia was better than Tillman this year, that doesn't mean it will always be that way. We are trying to build a team that will contend every year and that takes time. Not a huge fan of Scott and wouldn't mind seeing his name as part of some trade this off-season.

Chris, I guess its the organizational philosophy to build from within. Imagine the Twins w/ money to retain their players. I think thats the goal ??

To he who asked about Bedard's splits:

Erik's lifetime record against the BoSox:

13 G 5-4 4.25 ERA 1.28 WHIP 60 K in 72 IP

Erik's lifetime record against NYY:

13 G 4-5 4.32 ERA 1.34 WHIP 62 K in 66.2 IP

Luke lost all credibility when he called a Mustang a "good car".

Roch,

"[Millwood] would be slotted lower on a better team . . . ." This is an interesting comment, because it seems to me that ever since Millwood left Atlanta, he's been considered the no. 1 starter on the teams that have acquired him. I admit that this is just my impression -- I could be wrong, as my kids frequently assert I am. And while I certainly wouldn't contend that Millwood was considered no. 1 in a Braves rotation that featured Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, it seems like he was no. 1 on the Phillies, Indians, and Rangers. Of course, one could make a strong argument that those teams were not good, but my point is that he's a legitimate no. 1 starter. He's had lots of experience facing the Sabbathia's and Hallidays, and knows what that's all about. While he doesn't have the W-L record of those pitchers, he hasn't been too far off. His career ERA is 4.02, Sabbathia's is 3.62, and Halliday's is 3.43. Also, his strikeout/9 innings ratio is in the range of those pitchers, and his walks/9 innings ratio is identical to that of Sabbathia. All in all, he's a very good pitcher who's been stuck on some bad teams since he left Atlanta.
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In the AL East, for example, he's not a No. 1 on any other staff. I'm not ripping the guy, just saying that if you check around the league, he'd probably be slotted a little lower on a lot of clubs. Guthrie was a No. 1 here in Baltimore, but now he's going to be lower. - Roch

Love the car references today, Roch. I currently have both a '67 Mustang and a new Porsche 911 in my garage. To top it off, my wife drove a Cavalier for years.

To Chris, Brummie and others complaining about the O's not overpaying players to come to their team. What evidence do you have that paying these players exorbitant is worth it? We all acknowledge the O's would have to significantly overpay for the likes of Bay, Holliday, or Lackey and let's be honest that doesn't always work. The O's offered Tex last year a fair deal to come back to MD and play ball and be a hero. The Yankees offered more money (and a chance to win) but they didn't have the highest offer. The team that went the highest for him was the Nationals (which also would have brought him back home). So you can't really say that overpaying works because sometimes players will just choose a better fit for their needs.

Also remember that for every Tex. there is a Soriano who is a huge bust. And for every Sabathia there is a Zito and a Lowe. Giving big money to players isn't really a recipe for success. There are plenty of teams trying to dump these huge contracts they are committed to. Yes there might be players who are worth big money, but they don't always fit with the O's. Why should Baltimore spend $9-10 million a year for a 3B who has had his share of on base struggles (that applies to both Figgins and Beltre), when they have Josh Bell waiting in the wings? Why should they commit $14-18 million a year for Bay or Holliday when they have Riemold in LF, with Scott and Pie also in the mix (as well for DH). All three are better defenders than Bay, and Pie is better than Holliday. Riemold is projected to put up an .897 OPS according to Bill James next year (and he is a pretty fair source) which is actually higher than Bay, and just .025 lower than Holliday.

Sure you could sign Holliday and have Riemold DH, making Pie and Scott more expendable (I personally think they should trade them regardless) but you are talking 5-7 years and $16-18 million a year for a moderate upgrade (remember Scott at DH should post an OPS in the .830 range). And if Bay is the choice then he really should be your DH because he has been pretty bad in the field for some time now. Sure maybe other teams (Mets, Cards, Mariners) will use him in LF, but you are mitigating his value by getting his negative defense. I don't think he'll sign for a DH spot on a team that probably won't contend next season.

Pitching is even a worse area to commit big money. We've seen it first hand how pitchers can go down with injury at any time. Remember Kris Benson, Jarret Wright, Sidney Ponson? None were worth remotely the money we paid for them. Guys like Schmidt, and Zito are cautionary tales, not to mention Mike Hampton, or Denny Neagle. Even guys who pitch effectively aren't worth their big contracts. The Braves already are regretting the Lowe deal, and Burnett isn't worth $16.5 a year (which is what Lackey wants). I'm fine with adding Millwood and potentially Bedard. I think that's a much better use of resources than signing Lackey.

Look at it this way Lackey will cost at least $15 million next season, plus the 2nd round draft pick. Millwood cost Ray and $9 million (though if you figure Ray was gonna get prob around $1.25 mil in arb. Millwood costs only $7.75). And while Bedard isn't in the fold yet, I can't imagine him signing for as much as Harden given his current arm issue, So i think with incentives his deal will likely be at most $7 million. That's two potentially top of the rotation pitchers for the price of one.

Roch,

What makes Your blogers think that a lackey or other big names are the answer? I ve seen NY pay big bucks and get nothing in return. Also where do people think that they have the right to tell PA how to spend his money. If it wasn't for him Baltimore wouldn't have a team, it would have been in Washington.
The union & and weak willed owners are the problem. Baseball needs a system simlar to football that would give all team a chance to compete. Or like some have stated put the big money teams in one division.

Mstrchef13-
You didn't read my response right. Don't worry about it.
Ofcourse the FO isn't going to give a play by play of an entire transaction. That's where Brummie is a Dummie.
But they have to answer to the fans when all is said and done. Just like they always do. Thats why they have press conference after every signing, trade, or extension.
Macphail sat down and explained why he liked Millwood. What he expects from him. etc.
The same after the Bedard trade.
The same after Markakis extension.

Another myth shattered: http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=232

"In 2009, the 30 Opening Day starters combined for 824 starts, and around 20% were against fellow #1 starters, more than any other single rotation spot. However, a surprising 31% of their starts come against pitchers who weren’t even in the opposing team’s starting rotation to start the season!"

According to John Dewan, in 2009, #1 starters faced other #1 starters 19.7% of the time:

1v1=19.7%
1v2=14.1%
1v3=14.1%
1v4=13.0%
1v5=11.0%
1v6+=30.9%

Trying to line up pitchers doesn’t seem to work very well, as your ace ends up facing someone who wasn’t even in the opening day rotation almost 31% of the time. Read John’s full article here: http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=232. Nice try, Luke, but I think we should probably leave the intellectual heavy lifting to Andy and his colleagues.

Steve: “Always about the weapons, isn’t he?” Hilarious line!

Steveospeak, Dr. Tom, and Timosan: Thanks for the stats, guys. It's always nice when we can actually bring data to our discussions here. Welcome aboard!

Steveo speak, Really, giving big money to the right players isn't a recipe for success? Then how did the Yankees win the World Series this year? I am pretty sure they bought that championship. No, instead the O's waste money on washed-up players like Millwood and try to pawn him off as a Number 1 Starter. You can make all of the excuses you want for this front office. If you think that the O's will be able to compete with the Yankees or Red Sox without spending the money to get quality players then expect 12 more years of losing. Have fun waiting for all of the stars to align and all of the "prospects" to pan out. Is that the approach a winning organization would take? I don't think so.

Several recent posts have gotten me revisiting the Orioles’ outfield picture for 2010. While Andy MacPhail doesn’t seem to feel there’s a logjam, reasonable people here have suggested various alternatives:

1. Trading Pie. Pie-haters would have ditched him long ago, but recall that we’re referring to “reasonable people” here. Others appreciate him but feel his second half was anomalous and want to trade him while his value is up – certainly a useful concept, one the Guthrie trade proponents should consider. Obviously Pie has been a lightning rod for contrasting opinions, because he’s been Andy’s project and because he got off to an embarrassing start. Remember all the posters who wanted to place him on waivers? (Yet another dunce cap for you, trollboy. Where do you put them all?) Anyhow, Pie’s OPS+ of 122 in the second half, his very good UZR ratings on defense, and his strong minor league numbers would all argue that this young man is just getting started. Given that he’s our only legit backup CF, I don’t see Andy trading him. Remember also that Pie hit for the cycle last year, a feat roughly as rare as a no-hitter. How would people feel if Andy decided to trade a 24-y-o pitcher who had thrown a no-no last year? OMG, we’d be storming Castle MacPhail with clubs and torches. Unless he’s overwhelmed, Andy's going to want a better look at what he’s got before he even considers moving Pie.

2. Trading Luke. A dozen years of privation is making five healthy outfielders look like more of a logjam than it is. But if you listened closely to Dave T’s interview, it’s very clear Luke won’t be moving to first base anytime soon, and he prioritized LF over DH for Luke, which is a little hard to understand unless they’re priming the pump for a trade, since Nolan and I think Felix too are ahead of him on the depth chart. I like Luke (at least when he's not talking, or pointing skyward), and I think he’s a better left fielder than people give him credit for, if his UZR stats can be trusted. Yes, he tanked horribly with the bat in the second half, but he had lots of company, and he hit lefties about as well as righties (with little company). Only Nolan had a better walk rate, and nobody hit near as many homers. He’s a valuable player at the best populated position on the team. Depending what further moves Andy makes, Luke may very well have given Felix his last piggy back ride. Which would be kind of sad.

3. Moving Reimold to first. Everybody loves Nolan, me included, and CHONE projects him to 29 homers this year, which would be very helpful, especially if Luke’s 25 dingers go elsewhere. Generally I’m with amarie when it comes to treating players like fantasy chess pieces (Uggla to third? Pu-leeze!). Granted, Nolan was terrible in left last year: His UZR/150 was -17.3, which is Manny Ramirez territory. But he was hurt and a rookie, so let’s give him a mulligan and see what he can do this year fully healthy, and whether he can stay that way. I wouldn’t rule out a move to first at some point in his career, but doing so now is not only premature, it would also detract a lot from Nolan’s value, since a guy who can play left is worth more than the same guy playing first. So rest easy, amarie, it’s not happening. Not yet, anyway.

4. Pie and Jones trading places. Stat geeks around baseball complain that Adam didn’t deserve his Gold Glove, since last year his numbers were in the bottom half of AL centerfielders overall. As many here complained, he plays too shallow: His UZR ratings on shallow balls were good enough, on medium balls not good at all, and on deep balls terrible. His 2008 numbers were better, and he’s still improving, but last year his range was a big problem, and range is a huge component of defense. John Dewan, stats guru extraordinaire and author of The Fielding Bible, confirms that Adam was pretty awful on this metric. But he also notes that Adam was the BEST OUTFIELDER IN THE MAJORS LAST YEAR in two other important stats: taking away homers (+6) and throwing out runners (+12 – Bazooka!), traits I would suppose to be less valuable in left. (Although how Adam could be so bad on deep balls but still lead the majors in swiping homers is a question I’d love to ask Mr. Dewan.) Even if Pie is a better centerfielder than Adam is, which we don’t know for sure, he still has a lot to prove on offense. And then of course there’s the psychological piece, the How-do-you-move-Derek-Jeter-from-short-even-for-A-Rod? piece. Adam is clearly being groomed as the future leader of the team, on the field and in the clubhouse. He just won a GG in center and led the majors in throwing out runners and swiping homers. Now you’re going to tell him he’s switching places with Felix Pie and fighting for AB’s with Nolan Reimold? You’d better be the one to tell him, because I’m going to be out of Bazooka range.

By the way, everyone at the SoR should visit Pie’s baseball-reference.com page, which I noticed this morning has been sponsored in our honor by none other than our illustrious jdb. Thank you, kind sir! You’re a gentleman and a scholar.

Steve D. you beat me to it! So did you link to John Dewan's article from Rob Neyer or was this just a coincidence? In any case, you da man, dude!

Hi Roch -

Long time, no post. I thought (and think) that the Millwood pick up was AMAZING - a quality starter for a year, for whom we gave up little (Sorry, Ray), who can help the young pitchers? What else could you want?? Yeah, I know - corner infielders. That's what Non tender Season is for.

So our son was born last Monday. How soon til he sees a winning O's team? :) Enjoyed the blog posts while waiting for him to show up, btw....

Stay warm,

Chris
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I was gonna ask where you've been, but I guess the birth of your son is an acceptable excuse. Congrats!! What's his name? And I really hope he sees a winner before his college graduation. - Roch

Dan in Hdg said:
Steveo speak, Really, giving big money to the right players isn't a recipe for success? Then how did the Yankees win the World Series this year? I am pretty sure they bought that championship. No, instead the O's waste money on washed-up players like Millwood and try to pawn him off as a Number 1 Starter.
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If you think that Millwood is washed up, then you're not paying attention. Look at the stats from last year. Would you like to be paying Millwood $9MM for one season, or Derek Lowe $45MM over the next three like Atlanta? I am 100% certain that right now, if the O's offered Millwood for Lowe straight up, Atlanta would kidnap Lowe from wherever he is right now, stuff him into a limo, and drive him to Camden Yards for the press conference.

The key is giving big money to the right players, isn't it? Atlanta thought that giving big money to Lowe would make their rotation the best in the NL East and get them into the playoffs. The Cubs thought that giving big money to Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley were the right things to do. I don't recall that Soriano or Bradley were ever thought of as washed up before they signed. Only a few people, like myself, thought that Lowe's stats were a product of Dodger Stadium. If you don't think that pitching in Dodger Stadium is of great benefit, please come back to me at the end of 2010 with Randy Wolf's stats and tell me the 3 years and $30MM that Milwaukee gave him was worth it.

Why is it that fiscal responsibility is such a negative?

Msterchef13 - great post about realistic trades for Gonzales.

You suggest it would take Tillman, Britton, Pie, Snyder, Perez, and JJ to fetch us Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, and Heath Bell. I would do that in a minute if I got a 72 negotiating window with Gonzales (more on that below). Why the heck not?

Look at the performance history of ANY team's top 15 prospects from any year in the past 20. You will find that the majority are busts or marginal major leaguers. A third or so are solid or excellent major leaguers. Even if our current prospects beat those odds somewhat, we would be giving up, say 3 solid performers (with one being excellent) and 3 washouts or marginals. All of them 2-4 years away from being established. (Tillman is here, but he won't reach his potential for another year or two at best).

We would be getting a 28 superstar 1B, a 28 year old established above average 3B with upside potential, and a 32 year old established closer with 42 saves and 10.3ks per 9 innings last year. All three fill glaring holes in our lineup. All will be solid performers for many years to come.

We would have above average to outstanding defense at every position (except lf, where Nolan does ok and will improve). We would have well above average hitters 1-8 and Izturis batting 9th. We would have an all-star closer (Bell) and Koji as late inning additions to our pen from last year. And we would have Millwood, Bergensen, Matutz, Guthrie, Hernandez, and Berken all still in our starting rotation. AND we would still have top pitching prospects, Arrietta, Erbe, Patton, Hobgood in the minors.

We would become winners overnight, and contenders as soon as our young pitching gets established. We could and should go hard after Eric Bedard as well.

We would not be buying past their prime expensive vets, nor would we be trading our #1 draft picks. If we were able to sign Bedard, I dare say we would be contending for the wild card in 2010 and for the pennant in 2011. All of our regulars would be in place for 2010-2015!

Why the heck wouldn't we make that trade?

Roberts 2B
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Gonzalez, 1B
Wieters, C
Reimold, LF
Wiggy/Scott or Free Agent DH
Kouzmanoff, 3B
Izturis, SS

ARe you kidding me?

Millwood
Bergensen
Berken/Bedard
Matutz
Guthrie

Pretty cool.

HEath Bell, Koji, Hernandez, et all in Bullpen

Get it done

I think some people miss the point. The Orioles could be "aggressive" and sign John Lackey by offering him two extra years and 10% more money per year than his next best offer (I imagine that's what it would take). But where would they be, then? They'd be a slightly better bad team with no flexibility to improve. They could trade the prospects they've built the future around for Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder and then give them a king's ransom to extend, but they'd be a slightly better bad team except the future would be stripped.

There's not championship team that can be built this year from what we currently have and the current crop of free agents. There's just not. And long term, we can't beat the Yankees at their own game. We have resources, but not enough to do it that way.

There's a lot of people on here that love to complain about MacPhail and get angry that less than a month into free agency and not a week after the winter meetings, he hasn't found 2 all star starters, a top flight clean up hitter, starters at both corner infield slots and a lock down closer. My question is what would you have him do? Who would you sign and for what money? Who would you trade for and what would you give up? None of the complainers ever post that. I'm legitimately curious to what the answer is.

OCJ:

You mentioned Pie and Jones switching places. Interesting because that was a major topic this weekend on the Tom Davis/Dave Johnson/Phil Wood baseball show on the radio. The three of them think that had Jones not won his Gold Glove it would be a no brainer, to which I agree.

The point that was made that sticks with me is that Brady Anderson played LF when Camden Yards opened specifically because of his ability to take balls away at the wall. Jones would be just as valuable in LF as in CF, because his leaping ability comes into play even more while balls will never ever go over his head unless they are out of play.

Pie, on the other hand, becomes immensely more valuable as a CF over LF. You can just look at video from last season to see how good he was in CF and how bad he was in LF. Johnson made the point that some outfielders just don't pick up the slice on balls to LF/RF, and that Pie was the first CF in a while who he saw play CF like Paul Blair, who would turn, run as hard as he could to where the ball was coming down, stop, and catch it.

As to Jones' at bats in LF, I think he still gets 155 games, say 100 in LF and 55 in CF, with Reimold getting the platoon with Pie. I'm pretty certain I remember seeing Reimold play CF in Aberdeen his first professional season, so I don't think it's a stretch to say that Reimold *could* play CF if it was needed, but I don't know if it is something the organization wants to encourage. Still, between the three OF spots and the DH spot I see Reimold getting 450 at bats if the team wants Pie to be a regular.

quick Google search shows Wieters received a $6 mil signing bonus, Matusz a $3.2 mil bonus, Roberts signed a four-year, $40 mil extension and Markakis signed a six-year, $66 mil extension. They're also paying $9 mil of Millwood's contract. - Roch
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Over 124 million just in these few tranactions..Wow. I think some should revise their MacPhail is cheap tirade?

Roch,

The talk of matching up #1's is odd to me...I think you want a number 1 starter in theory---but it's not like the #1 faces the other #1 other than maybe the first week of the season. You pitch your rotation and as off days and rainouts come in the matchups completely change.

Yes I would love to be a Colorado fan...their organization doesn't pinch pennies...noooooo....so why did they trade away Matt Holliday...why is Brad Hawpe a possible trade chip...what big time free agent have they signed since the Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle debacles...

By no means do I think Colorado is a bad organization, they've been to the playoffs and made playoff runs a lot more than the orioles in recent history...

I just thought I'd point that out...

It's also funny that...people want to spend 8 or 9 mil on a reliever who had a 4.40 era...if that same reliever was an Oriole last year, you would hear how terrible he was...can't forget about the guy with a 5.02 era that we also must get(funny I actually want him to, just saying)...

the grass is always greener on the other side...maybe that means you should water your own...

Since the Orioles have recently been sticking to a 5 man rotation and not skipping over the starts, it is rare that our #1 is facing the other team's # 1 that day anyway.

People, stop it with the Adrian Gonzalez stuff. He's not coming here, he's not even really on the market. The Padres would have to be absolutely stupid to trade him and his reasonable contract at this point. Even if he was on the market.

Kouz has been a major league average hitter in his past two seasons and while he fields pretty well in his range, his range is limited at 3B.

Heath Bell is not an established closer; he was a middle reliever/swing man for most of his major league career and has tossed a crazy amount of innings out of the pen. I wouldn't trade for a closer that involves this many good pieces when you can find closers just about anywhere you look for them.

Dan in Hdg said:

Steveo speak, Really, giving big money to the right players isn't a recipe for success? Then how did the Yankees win the World Series this year? I am pretty sure they bought that championship.

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I am not so sure I agree with that statement, Dan. Yes, the Yankee's bought three people last season. But that's all they bought. They didn't buy a team. They ALREADY HAD Derek Jeter, and Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte, and Alex Rodriguez. They won the world series because (as painful as it is for me to type) the Yankee's are a very talented baseball team. NOT because they bought three big names last off-season.

Roch,

Any chance the O's lock the keys in their Caviler?

=0)
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Now who would be dumb enough to do that...including twice with the engine running? - Roch

Steve said: Always about the weapons, isn't he?

Always? Only if you're counting Mustangs and Porsches as armaments. Seriously, though, do you have a problem with him referencing weapons?

Personally, while I don't own any guns myself, I have no problem with Luke owning them. In fact, if the NRA wanted a poster boy for responsible gun ownership, they probably would be hard pressed to find anyone better suited than Luke Scott.

But it's not like Luke is the first to use such terminology. It's common baseball parlance to say a strong throwing fielder (typically a catcher or outfielder) has a "rifle" (or less frequently "cannon") for an arm. Home runs are sometimes called "bombs" or "blasts." Then, of course, we have Dave Trembley referring to the "cavalry" being on the way.

In other words, if Luke wants to talk about bullets and high-powered rifles, it's really not something about which to get overly-excited.

Wow, Luke might have the makings of a manager someday. I would love to have Luke around as a 300-400 ab platoon guy who can just mash righties, but he will be getting far too much playing time again this year. Hopefully Trembley realizes that even if he can't hit LHP that well, he is still far better off against them than any alternative.

Roch you said:
"The Orioles were more along the lines of a '97 Cavalier this year, but point taken."

You would know about Cavaliers wouldn't you :p
It died on you right? I sure hope you're not still driving around in that thing.
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I actually traded it in when I bought my new car a few years ago. It was still running, but it would overheat if I left it running in park. - Roch

Mstrchef13, I wouldn't want Millwood or Derek Lowe. Obviously the Rangers and Braves want to dump them because of their performances, or lack there of, not just to lower their payrolls. This is what has happened with the O's for the last several years starting with Sammy Sosa. I'm for fiscal responsibility, but I'm not for taking other teams garbage because it is at a reduced rate.
Johnny C, They didn't buy a team? You think they would have made it to and won the World Series without C.C, A.J, and Tiex? And they signed A-Rod a few years ago, he wasn't drafted by the Yankees. And Pettitte had left and gone to the Astros, then came back for the MONEY. But I was actually referring to their 200 million dollar payroll. The teams that win on a consistent basis spend the money to get the good players.

If the Orioles want to break .500, they may have to break the bank on a guy like Lackey. Give him whatever it takes and cross your fingers. What do you have to lose?

Ryan said:

~~mstrchef13-

I am no brummie fan. I actually think he's a huge tool. However, technically, the team is like a publically traded company and the fans are the stockholders. Taxpayers build the stadium, and pay for everything.
So, they do owe explanations on why they do things and don't do things.~~

No wonder capitalism is dying in America. Fans are customers, not stockholders. They make no investment in the equity or cash flow of the corporation. When you buy a GM car do you get to make decisions on where to build a factory? Of course not; you buy a product from the corporation, not equity IN the corporation. As for the ballpark? Did the taxpayers build it and give it to the Orioles? Of course not. They still own it. The Orioles are tenants in the ballpark not owners. The Orioles are private property and owe you no explanation for anything unless it is specified in contracts of law. News conferences announcing acquisitions are advertising, not stockholder meetings or 10Ks. Weak argument overall.

Roch - why won't the O's spend that much on a pitcher???? I am slowly being pushed to the other side on this money spending issue. You didn't answer Chris' (the first comment on this post) question about why the O's won't spend money. Simply saying that the O's won't spend that much on a pitcher proves his point. You said yourself that the O's could afford Lackey - so why do we always have to listen "we're not in on ________" (you fill in one of Lackey, Holliday, Bay, etc.). When you have a $45M payroll and appear not to want to step up to the plate to spend the excess, there will be a lot of questions. We could easily afford a $90M+ payroll (probably more like $100M to $110M), so what is all the hesitation about.
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MacPhail doesn't believe in offering exhorberant amounts of money for pitching. It's not exactly a secret. Remember "grow the arms?" That's his philosophy, for better or worse. - Roch

Roch - thanks for the nice response. Sorry to get aggitated on my previous post - but seeing the Red Sox get Lackey is making me get depressed. It really gets you down when you see the same top two teams in your division sign the top free agents year after year.

But taxpayers don't PAY for Ford to build their plant.

But, its 2 totally different things. I am the ultimate capitalist. That was the dumbest comment in the world.
Neither of you 2 have very good reading comprehension.

I said, of course Macphail doesn't or isn't going to give play by play of trades or Free Agent signings. BUT, AT THE SAME TIME, ONCE A MOVE IS MADE, THEY ALWAYS GIVE THEIR EXPLANATIONS FOR THE MOVE OR MOVES.
ITS WHY THERE ARE PRESS CONFERENCES AFTER EVERY GAME!
ITS THE EXACT SAME THING AS WHEN FORD GIVES ITS QUARTERLY STOCK REPORTS AND FISCAL PROJECTIONS.
I Don't understand why this is so hard to grasp.

What does any of that have to do with being anti-capitalism?