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The Orioles have a 40 home run type. His name is Matt Wieters.

Secondly, Baseball Prospectus, while I respect the fact that they predicted 79 wins which is far more than any other outlet (most outlets are predicting around 70 wins which basically means the team will be no better than last year which is patently ridiculous), they also have the Orioles giving up more runs than last year. Without Eaton, without Hill, without Berken and with a better bullpen I think that is close to impossible so I don't put much stock in their numbers. They are too high with runs scored and runs allowed for most every team.

Is it bad that when I saw the title, I immediately thought that we had lured Delino DeShields out of retirement?

I think our offense is definitely going to be better than league average this year, with as many well-rounded hitters as we have. As always, it's going to be our pitching that defines the team.
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I thought of that, too. He was, after all, a team MVP one year........Steve

If the Orioles traded Luke Scott for Adam Dunn tomorrow, and Dunn announced that he would happily DH full time for the O's, you would write a column talking about how much his power will help everyone else in the lineup, and what a good thing it is to have one guy in the order who pitchers fear. And, you'd be right.
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I stated that having the 40-homer guy is not a bad thing, sure it could help. But I'm just pointing out the best teams usually score 800 plus runs, and they all don't get there via the longball.

There's also something to be said for having decent hitters up and down the lineup, and right now the O's will have hitters 1 thru 8 that all can drive the ball with either gap power or legit homer power. Several could hit 20 or more. Believe me, if this team scores 800 plus runs, no one will notice they are missing an Adam Dunn type.

Last year's Nats had Dunn hit 38 and Zimmerman 33 and they hit 156 homers as team, scoring 718 runs. The O's had ONE player hit over 20 homers, hit 160 as a team and scored 741 runs. To me, that makes my point, but I could be wrong......Steve

Steve,

I think as far as the numbers go, the offense has been and will be fine. What the numbers don't show is how many times the O's would score 6+ runs for a few games and then score 2- runs for two turns through the rotation. I'm not sure that having a 40 homerun guy impacts that. If he is on, then it doesn't matter (Luke anyone?), the runs will come. But if the big bopper has a slump, what then. Many teams rely on that one guy, sort of like hockely clubs that rely on the top line for all the scoring. I really think that having consistency up and down the lineup is more conducive to preventing long offensive slumps. In our division and with our park, a real power hitter would be great, but I don't think it is as imperative as many think. As you pointed out, we will have to do a better job with base running and situational hitting. The problem is since just about everyone is capable of hitting the long ball, it is difficult to know when to try and go yard and when to manufacture a run. With 8-13 homer guys the decision is easy. With 30-40 homers guys the decision is easy. With 15-25 homers guys the decision is much harder. I think last year we hoped and waited for the long ball a little too often. I hope this year we will alter the balance a bit and go for more one and two run innings. If so, I think we can be fine without a big guy.

Of course who knows, one or two of our guys may end up being such a "big guy".
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Some good points, PV. The more balance and good hitters in the lineup, maybe the less likely for slumps or slow periods of team offense. Also, I think the club realizes it has to play small ball better this year. Trembley discussed the base running at FanFest and knows that must improve also he has cited that 44 percent of their games were decided by two runs or less.

I think he knows a run here or there could make a difference.....Steve

I think not having Melvin Mora and all his base running blunders will help the team drasticly. That being said I am not a Mora hater it was just his time to go.

Steve, My brother and I used to argue all the time over how to set up our teams. So much so we as youngsters we would actually get into fist fights over it. He preferred power over a guy that I preffered which were high OBP guy. He would have a team of say Dave Kingmans and I Geoge Bretts or Moliters. Which do you preference? Also in the mid 90's the O's moved home plate back 5 to 10 feat. Do you think it would benefit the O's with the team they will be fielding this year to do this again knowing we have alot of doubles hitters to utilize more of a wide open field? I see this benefitting our pitcher as well with the deffense we will be putting out there. Thanks steve, love your blogs.
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First of all, discussion yes, but no fighting over this blog.

Second if the choice is a team of Kingmans or Moliters, I'll take the Moliters.

The O's don't have any plans to change the dimensions of tthe Yard as far as I know, it's plenty big enough for all those possible doubles.........Steve

I kind of think that Reimold and Jones are both capable of reaching the 30 hr mark next season, if they are healthy. Two 30 hr guys in one lineup always looks good. This team has power, but they just really havent harnessed it yet.

SAM

Steve, I agree about the importants of having a balanced lineup over one raw power guy (though a combination of two is even better). Having a lineup without any cheap outs is an enormous advantage, because there's no one a pitcher will feel can be pitched around as everyone one through nine can contributed.

Remember back in 2004 when Barry Bonds was the most feared hitter in baseball (probably the most feared ever)? He hit .362 with 45 HR and 101 RBI and raised the bar ridiculously high when he the major league marks for most walks (232) and most intentional walks (120) in season (don't see those records ever being broken, do you?) not only because there was no good way to pitch him, but because pitchers would rather take their chances against whichever number five hitter the Giants sent up to the plate, because none of them hit .300 or as many as 20 HR.

That's where the Giants would have benefited from a more balanced attack, having someone follow in the lineup to make them pay. It's always preferred to have not just one big hitter in a lineup, but two back-to-back: Ruth-Gehrig, Boog-Frank, Cal-Eddie, Mantle-Maris, Aaron-Mathews, Teixeira-A-Rod, Ortiz-Ramierez, etc.

As for the Orioles this season, at first glance there looks to be the potential for a big year offensively. At worst, the O's should be a little better, you'd think, with the possibility for a much improved performance. Lots of things will have to go right for that to happen, such as: B-Rob being B-Rob, Scott finally putting together two good halves, no regressing for Jones or Pie, Reimold and Wieters building on last season, Markakis' further blossoming at the plate, Atkins finding his stroke, Miggy not losing his and a healthy Izturis hitting above .260 with 20 steals.

Put all that together (and maybe a pleasant surprise or two in the power department), and the O's could have a very formidable lineup, indeed. And the O's pitching could really use that kind of support to take some of the pressure off.

I never understood why people say we need a "big bat" at first or third. Yes they are traditional power positions but I wouldn't mind solid defensive guys that hit 20 homers and have a decent average. Especially when you get decent power out of non-traditional power positions like we will at catcher and CF. So If Bell and Snyder come up and top out at say Billy Butler type numbers from last year (21 homers, 40 doubles (he actually had 51 but I won't shhot that high)) I'd be absolutely fine with that if they played solid D on the other side. Bottom line is that this game is about who scores the most runs, not who hits the most homeruns. Its about getting clutch hits, any clutch hit, you don't get bonus runs for hitting a ball 500 feet.

Hey there, I think a team that goes all the way, or to the playoffs without a plus homer is the exception to the rule. I agree with PV in that the team will weather slumps better when there is blanace throughout the lineup.

You know, this team has alot of homerun potential with all of the up and coming players like Jonsey, Wheat, Remi, and even Pie in addition to the doubles machines of B-rob, Kakis, and now Tejada. I really expect that (Luke) Scott will find his consistent homeruns this year. Did Kranny even work with him last year? Who knows how Atkins will play out this year, but if he pans out like the three to four years prior the last one, he can be on par with Kakis, with perhaps a bit more pop.

My concerns, for the offense as this is the topic of this artcle, would including Jonsey's free swinging, Wheats' heavy bat, Tejadas' ground double outs, Pies' 'getting it' at the plate and on the bases, Atkins' whatever had brought him down last year, Remis' ankle, and of course Scotts' apparent perfectionism as it were.

Here's to a fan that is excited to watch the O's everyday. Come on O's!

I think you absolutely have to have a masher in the middle of the lineup. It's not always about how many runs you score over the course of the year. A big time home run hitter makes other teams pitch to your lineup differently, especially late in games. Up by 1, teams will throw better pitches to the guy in front of a true power hitter, so as to not walk him and run the risk of giving up a game losing homer. No one's really worried about getting doubled to death late in games, because it takes too many good at bats, as opposed to just one bad pitch. That said, there was no one the O's could have signed this offseason that would both fit the need of a power bat and be able to play a position we need. Next year they should go after someone like Carlos Pena, or in a best case scenario trade and extend a guy like that this year while we're on pace to win 100+ games with our great young pitching.

Theoretically we could score 15 runs a game in May, and taper off from there and then the big overall stats don't mean anything. What we lacked last season was someone who could drive in runs in the middle of the order when it counted. Now hopefully one of the young guys fits the bill or Tejada/Atkins. I think the chances are good that that guy could come from one or more of: T/A, Reimold, Jones, or Wieters. It's not about homeruns, its about clutch hitting, which we sorely lacked.

I think you make an excellent point about improving baserunning. Hopefully with Huff gone (don't look at his base-running stats, its sad he even has base-running stats last season), and maybe Pie showing something on the base-paths we will be better.

I think the real issue on this team is our pitching though. I'm surprised so many people are okay with Millwood as our #1 in the Al East. I love the signing, but Millwood against Sabathia? I'm rooting for the young guys. This will be an interesting season.

Hello Steve, here's my take on the 2010 team at present. we don't need the 40 homerun hitter. this team is balanced. and when spring training starts. Dave Trembley gets to figure out his line-up. this will be one of the best starting line-up in the Majors. with the guys we now have this team should score a lot of runs and lead the american league in hits and doubles. I for one am very excited about this coming season. and looking forward to the BIRDS having the best season in 12years. I can hardly wait to get back to OPACY . GO ORIOLES GO!!!!!!!

Steve -

Just a heads-up. BP had to revise their PECOTAs. They're projected for 808 runs now, not 864. That would have made them 5th in the AL in 2009. Not bad.
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What happened to cause the change, Jim.......Steve

Although that bopper would be great, it is unnecessary. I can see 20+ homers from Jones, Markakis, Scott, Reimold, and Wieters. Roberts and Izturis are not good for that many (although Roberts has before), and I have no idea what to expect from Atkins and Tejada. Jones, Scott, Reimold, or Wieters could become a 30+ homer guy this year, if healthy. My question is this, with the show of power that Aubrey put on late last season, why didn't they consider him for first? I really think he could hit 20+ given the job full time. I'm getting pretty excited. If the pitching is even marginally better than last year, this will be a fun year.
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Aubrey hit .289-4-14 in 90 September at bats last year. Not to discount that in any way, but some teams are wary of late-season stats. Now that they have a player in Atkins that has a couple of 100-RBI seasons at the Major Lg level, he's their guy for now.

Aubrey did a really nice job late last year. I just think Snyder is a top prospect and an O's first-round pick that the club really believes in. He's hit in the AFL and really grabbed everyone's attention with that OPS of 1.018 in AA last year. Now he needs to keep progressing and put up numbers at Norfolk. Aubrey is part of the "inventory" and things can change fast in this game and he could emerge in a key spot, we'll see.......Steve

Steve - BP released their depth charts earlier than usual this year and a few bugs had yet to be found/addressed. Primarily, the impact of defensive metrics had been misapplied as BP reconfigured the technical details of PECOTA this off-season - going from a strictly old-school spreadsheet driven machination to a more modern database system which will allow for more flexibility in their updates through ST and during the season. There's a nice exchange in the comments on the site regarding whether a "beta" tag should have been placed on the early release. BP's staff has quickly responded to the feedback and the new data reflects the bug-fix. Please note that their projections will change through ST as rosters are finalized and playing time questions are answered by the teams.

As to the big-bopper question, count me in the crew that understands there is more than one path to the promised land. Harvey's Wall Bangers or the 80's Cards - just need to get the bodies to cross home plate. Depth, lineup flexibility and a nice stable of young capable arms all combine to push my optimism to new heights for '10. Should be an exciting season. Let's go O's! ..... Jay
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Thanks for clarifying Jay..........Steve

This line up would be great in the NL. Unfortunately we're in the AL east. Last year every team in the AL east had a 30+ homerun guy, actually they all had 2 except for the Red Sox. It will be interesting to see the Red Sox's run production without Bay. Right now I see there line up very comparable to the O's but they do have the best rotation in baseball so they'll do better than us. AL east line ups are still stacked with 20+ HR guys along with 1 or 2 30+ guys per team. It's got to mean something!

I have a lineup thought that's maybe a bit radical...

Our starting 9 doesn't include a true power hitter... but we have balance. All of our guys can hit, but I think they need to be slotted in the right spot.

The way I see it, we have 3 "protectors" in our lineup: Roberts, Tejada and Markakis.

As "protectors", I mean a guy who doesn't need any help or protection for themselves. No matter who hits around them, they'll still do the job on their own.

So here's what I'm thinking: If you bat Roberts, Tejada and Markakis at the top of your order, then the rest of the lineup loses the protection. We've essentially wasted their value.

In fact, Roberts is immediately wasted by batting leadoff. And if Roberts is gonna protect someone, wouldn't you want it to be a person with homerun potential (like Jones or Reimold) instead of Izzy? I mean... who cares if Izzy sees strikes at the plate? He can't do any damage with them anyway.

So now I'm contemplating something like this:

Jones
Roberts
Wieters
Tejada
Reimold
Markakis
Atkins
Scott
Izzy

You don't want to walk Jones, because Roberts could burn you... so Jones will see more strikes (in theory) and get better pitches to hit.

Same for Wieters... you can't pitch around him for fear that Tejada will knock him in. So Wieters sees better pitches to hit.

Same for Reimold... Nick's behind him, so he gets better pitches to hit.

And hopefully the homerun potential of Atkins and Scott is enough to provide Markakis with some protection, or he'll really be all on his own.

Obviously, part of the problem with this is that you potentially won't see 2 of our best hitters until the 2nd inning (if we go 1, 2, 3 in the 1st). Not to mention, fewer at-bats for Nick.

On the other hand, it sure seems to spread out the protection. I feel like everyone would get better pitches to hit.

I recall an O's team (circa '95 or '96) that had eight or nine 20+ homerun guys. I like balanced lineups as even 40/50+ homerun guys go into periodic slumps. When you have a bunch of guys capable of hitting it out at any time, then team scoring/losing slumps should be less likely.

I haven't looked into in depth, but here's what I think happened: Nate Silver - who created PECOTA - sold the proprietary rights to BP when he started doing political forecasting full-time (at 538.com). There were some mistakes made when BP did this for themselves, largely with the run-environment they used. Individual projections were not altered, but the team projections, which are based on distributions of playing time and run environment were a bit wiggy. So they were promptly fixed.

860+ runs was wildly optimistic. 800+, however, is very good, and with a substantial leap forward in pitching, point toward something like an 85 win team.

I think most of us would be happy a team that's within a end-of-season winning streak of 90 wins.

Of course, the young offensive players need to bounce back and/or progress. And the pitchers need to grow up fast.

Here's hoping.

Thanks for all your hard work. Enjoy the posts.
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Thanks Jim. To win 85 would be a remarkable improvement and create some real fun this year. Seems like a stretch, but why not think big.......Steve

Improve team OBP, increase runs scored. Drawing more walks means more runners on base to drive in, whether by single, double, triple, home run, sac fly. Improving team OBP costs no money, it simply requires stressing plate discipline and the value of deep counts and walks (and not being afraid to hit with two strikes or to strike out, as opposed to aggressive, quick at-bats that help opposing pitchers.
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There is no reason that should not be able to happen. At the start of last year the team seemed to be doing that. The team OBP was .352 in April, but never got that high again. Some individuals need to get better in this department to benefit the entire team. Good points......Steve

Steve-
Come on dude. Look at the playoff teams. Look at every playoff team in the decade.
NY, -- well, I don't want my comp to shut off. lol
Minn-- Mornoue, Mauer,
LA - Manny,
Philly- lol.
St. Louis - what his name? oh, AND Holliday
Col- Hawpe
Angels- ok, here is 1, but, guys had some down years.
Boston- Bay,Ortiz, Youk
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It's not about hitting home runs, it's about scoring runs. One feared hitter in the 4-hole can be pitched around.

HR leaders, AL, 2009:
1 - NYY
2 - Tex
3 - Bost
4 - Tor
5 - TB
6 - Chic
7 - Det

Five of the top seven HR-hitting teams from last year MISSED the playoffs.

Runs scored, AL, 2009:
1- NYY
2- LAA
3 -Bost
4 - Minn

All four of those teams DID make the playoffs. I don't know how else to say it, you don't need a big homer hitter to win, you do however need to score some runs.

Steve

Steve-
Yeah, but ALL of those teams have at LEAST 1 bopper. You asked if the O's need 1, we aren't trying to do what Texas and the Astros do every year, or the Mets.

Ummm ... Bop
(Hanson)

While the achilles injury scares the heck out of me, I think Reimold has the potential to be a consistent 30 hr guy.

Nice thread Steve. I agree with you about rather having a balanced top to bottom lineup, than one with a big bopper and too many holes. As it stands right now the O's could easily get 150 hrs from just their top six guys. My own personal projections: Reimold (28) Jones (26) Markakis (25) Wieters (25) Scott (23) Atkins (23), it could even go higher than that. If you throw in 15 each for Tejada and Roberts that's 180 and the rest of the bench players could get you 20 to total over 200 hrs for the team.

The poster who mentioned OBP is exactly right. Take 200 hrs with a ton of doubles and if the guys can be more patient, taking walks and working the count, this group has the potential to be great. Top 3 in the AL. You don't teach HR's, so Crow should be pusing the Yankee model of working the count and getting on base very hard this spring.

As always though, the lineup isn't the problem. While I like the thread the pitching is the more important topic and key to any sucess in the win/loss column. But there's plenty to be excited about there too.

I had one more observation that I don't think anyone has touched on yet. For all the complaints about corner infield posistions and the lack of power there, it's funny that no one has ever flipped the script and talked about how we have some decent power coming from positions that you don't normally expect to see it. I'm referring to Jones in centerfield and Wieters behind the plate. Believe me when I say just how much those two are coveted by every team in the MLB. Just imagine how many team homeruns we could have in 2011 if they upgraded the stick from the SS position and added a legit 35+ homer first baseman....oh and I almost forgot about Josh Bell at 3rd. You'd be talking about all time record type offense then.

This team is going to do just fine offensively for several years to come. The young pitchers will determine the fate of team. If they are even moderately sucessful there's no reason to think the Orioles couldn't compete with the big dogs in the AL East. None at all.
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You make a very good point not often made. The O's may outhomer many teams at the CF and C postions.......Steve

Steve-
I wanted to add, and to echo some opinions, that, I truly feel Reimold WILL be a 30-40 hr guy.
I think they should plop him into #4 right now. I think he can handle it. etc.

Leading the league in homeruns is twice as good as leading the league in doubles! In the AL East, homers are a necessity. Psychologically (that's the longest word this old man has ever written) a longknocker is mandatory to lead any offense. Earl was right!

OriAl is right...this team really needs to get on the OBP train (heaven knows why that hasn't really happened yet.) It needs to be an organizational philosophy from the top down. That'll add a lot more runs than bringing in some premium HR hitter would.

It's really startling to play a team that knows how to be patient abuse our pitchers, and then see our batters go up there flailing away at 1st pitches all day long.

Markakis' walk rate dropped dramatically last year...which essentially leaves Reimold, Roberts, and maybe Wieters (and Nick can come back) as the only ones who really seem to know how to take a walk.

Matt Wieters was our best hitter the last few weeks of the season and should be a great clean-up hitter, I fear Dave's loyalty to veterans will force us to sit though Atkins and Scott batting too high from the first 100 games.

NormO's - I think its a bit of a steatch to say that leading the league in HRs is twice as good as leading the league in doubles. As Ryan says above - 5 of the top 7 HR hitting teams last year MISSED the playoffs. Since 6 of the top 8 doubles-hitting AL teams also MISSED the playoff, I'm not sure that's a very good indicator either. Two things that do seem to be good indicators (at least from the offensive side) are getting on base and scoring runs. The top 4 in BOTH categories made the playoffs last year.

As suggested by many of the posters, I'd like to see the O's take a more disciplined approach at the plate. I'm not sure that'll happen with Tejada in the lineup - that's 11% of your lineup right there who's swinging if there's a pitcher anywhere near the mound. AJ had a couple weeks in April or May where he took a disciplined approach (resulting in OBPs of .433 in April and .369 in May), but something changed in June (.286 OBP) and July (.329). Although he did have 8 walks in June, he only had 5 in July...compared with 9 and 4 in April and May. Izturis isn't traditionally a patient type of hitter either, so that's 1/3rd of the line-up who are hacking away.

I do like Reimold and Wieter's patience. Roberts is one of the premier lead-off hitters in the game and knows how to get on base (and to 2nd often times). Markakis seemed to be pressing quite a bit - particularly after Huff was traded. I think he'll return to a more patient approach. Scott will take a walk now and then. Atkins too (with less strike outs). So the other 2/3rds of the lineup has a lot of potential to get on base (in means other than a basehit).

Overall, as many posters have already said, I like the lineup of a bunch of 20+ HR guys. While adding a 30+ or 40+ HR guy would be nice, there wasn't one around for them to sign this year. Maybe after the 2011 season when the contracts of A Pujols, A Gonzalez, R Howard and P Fielder all expire the O's will find a nice value in the flooded market of FA 1st basemen. In the meantime, let's see what Atkins and Snyder can do.

Plus, like "Pat in Parkville" suggests (though I wouldn't use that lineup myself), what's wrong with going against the (traditional) grain? Why get beat up trying to do the same thing that the "big boys" are always going to be better at than you (Read: "spend more money")? Why not do something a little different?

Steve, nice to see your posts draw so many intelligent responses.
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Yours now included in the mix, some good stuff......Steve

I'd rather have several 15-20 HR hitters that also are above average defensively and have some speed than a team with one or two big boppers that are slow and defensive liabilities.