Pitching staff projections: Mine and yours
We're inside of two weeks until pitchers and catchers report now, and with an enjoyable-if-not-classic Super Bowl behind us, the baseball season officially enjoys an unobstructed view on the sports horizon. Well, maybe that's a little less true in an Olympic year. But you get my point: It's getting close.
In that spirit, I wanted to kick around an issue that many of you asked about in last week's live chat. The competition for spots on the Nationals' starting staff is going to be as fierce as I can remember it, so I'd like to begin the week by breaking down the competitors for rotation spots and what they'll need to do to get in.
Let's start by assuming there are two guarantees out of the five spots in the rotation: John Lannan and Jason Marquis. Put them in whatever order you want, but the two New Yorkers are going to be there. That leaves three spots, to be contested among a group including (but not necessarily limited to): Collin Balester, Miguel Batista, Ross Detwiler, J.D. Martin, Shairon Martis, Garrett Mock, Scott Olsen, Craig Stammen, and Stephen Strasburg. I guess you could throw Shawn Estes into that group, too, but we'll assume he's covered by the "not necessarily limited to" provision.
So how do you assemble a rotation out of a group of prospects, bargain veterans and injury risks? It's going to be one of the biggest focuses of spring training, to the point where early starts are going to matter more than they have in the past, just to see how Olsen's shoulder looks or whether Mock has made the necessary strides to start every five days. This group will have to get whittled down by the middle of March, so the Nationals can start giving their presumptive starters more work in the last few starts of spring.
Here's my take on each guy, what he has to do to end up in the rotation and where he'll likely land:
COLLIN BALESTER
He's in the rotation if: He shows the kind of consistency and effort early in camp that we never saw from him last year. 
Balester had an inside track to one of the open spots, but got passed by Martis and Jordan Zimmermann while he tinkered with the height of his delivery toward the plate. There isn't going to be time for much of that tinkering this year, if Balester wants to make an impression. He gave up 10 homers in 30 1/3 innings with the Nationals last year. His curveball will have to be sharper than it was, and he'll have to show a little more mental toughness than we've seen.
Where he ends up: Balester has the stuff to excel in the majors, but barring an eye-opening spring, he'll likely start in Syracuse.
MIGUEL BATISTA
He's in the rotation if: The Nats decide they need the kind of veteran innings-eater they had two years ago with Odalis Perez. Batista can be that guy, but he hasn't excelled at it since 2007 with the Mariners. His career WHIP (1.497) is on the high side, and it hasn't been below 1.5 since 2004. But there's been a spot for guys like Batista in the rotation before, and Jim Riggleman saw him in Seattle in 2008. He's a guy worth watching.
Where he ends up: If the Nationals get spooked by the state of their young pitchers, Batista slides into the fifth spot to open the year. But it's more likely he's the first guy to be called up from Syracuse--or he makes the team as a swing reliever, like Julian Tavarez did last year.
ROSS DETWILER
He's in the rotation if: He continues to pitch the way he did last September. Detwiler has struggled with his mechanics and been through a couple of overhauls since the Nationals took him with the sixth pick in 2007. But he seemed to find a groove last fall, throwing an effective two-seam fastball that got him 13 ground-ball outs in his first big-league win against the Mets. Detwiler's got solid velocity on his fastball, but not the kind that will help him miss bats consistently. He's another pitch-to-contact guy, which the Nationals like, and he'll only need to replicate what he was doing last fall to start this year in the majors.
Where he ends up: As the No. 5 starter in Washington's rotation. Detwiler seems ready to make the jump, and the guess here is he gets that chance.
J.D. MARTIN
He's in the rotation if: Most of the Nationals' flashier prospects fail to make strong showings this spring. 
Martin was effective in his half-season in the rotation last year, but he's not a guy who factors prominently into the team's long-term plan. Maybe he moves in a trade, or maybe he sneaks into the rotation with a consistent spring. But teams had a .279 average and .341 OBP against him last year, and he doesn't seem like a guy that's going to rocket up the ladder at this stage in his career.
Where he ends up: Syracuse, barring a trade or a surprising spring. Martin is a good option to have on hand, but there are enough pitchers with stronger chances than him that he'll wind up in the minors.
SHAIRON MARTIS
He's in the rotation if: He comes out throwing like he did last spring, or the early part of the season. Martis' big problem has always been his tendency to nibble, and he started doing that too much last June after a 5-0 start with the Nationals. He's not 23 yet, though, and while we didn't see him last September, GM MIke Rizzo said he'd gotten reports from Syracuse that Martis had been more aggressive in going after hitters. There's a mental bridge that has to be crossed before doing that in the majors, though, and the hunch here is Martis needs another half-season in the minors before he's there.
Where he ends up: As one of the team's top starters in Syracuse before returning to Washington later in the year. Martis has the stuff to be an effective starter, but there's no rush on him, and the Nats will take their time.
GARRETT MOCK
He's in the rotation if: We're a little bit at a loss on this one. Mock has impressive stuff, a sharp four-pitch arsenal that he used to dominate at Syracuse last year. But he's yet to show that in the majors, walking far too many batters instead of challenging them and failing to adjust to hitters the second and third time through the order. Mock's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .360 last year, which somewhat corroborates his frequent contentions a few bleeders and seeing-eye singles did him in. But those get more damaging when you walk people, and a .380 OBP against doesn't help matters.
Where he ends up: The Nationals are running out of time to figure out what Mock will be, and manager Jim Riggleman has hinted several times this winter he's got a good chance to be in the rotation. The hunch here is he misses out on a spot and starts in Syracuse. But the Nationals still have high hopes for him, either as a starter or reliever, and he's a Rizzo guy. So we might end up eating our words on this one.
SCOTT OLSEN
He's in the rotation if: His arm is healthy enough to get his velocity into the low-90s by early March, setting up his other pitches to be effective. 
Olsen's shoulder is a concern, especially after he rarely showed much zip on his fastball last year, and his other pitches were only effective last year in the summer stint between injuries where his fastball finally broke 90 mph. The Nationals have cut a veteran starter each of the last two years in camp when they had concerns about arm trouble (John Patterson and Shawn Hill). Could Olsen be the third? His $1 million salary is a lot easier to eat than the $2.24 million he would have made, at a minimum, had the Nationals offered him arbitration.
Where he ends up: All that said, Olsen is only 26, and has three full seasons as a starter under his belt. That's more than most of the Nationals' other options, and we're guessing Olsen makes the rotation as the No. 3 starter.
CRAIG STAMMEN
He's in the rotation if: He continues his progression toward becoming a right-handed John Lannan. The Nationals like ground-ball pitchers who work quick, and Stammen can do that when his two-seamer is sharp (remember the six shutout innings against the Yankees last year?). His stuff isn't anything dynamic, but he's a hard worker who pitched hurt last year and who's willing to learn--another quality he shares with Lannan. The Nationals' two-seamer specialists (Lannan and Marquis) at the top of the rotation will help Stammen, and while the bullpen has been mentioned as an option for him, he might not need it..
Where he ends up: Stammen pitched 105 2/3 innings before elbow surgery last year, and assuming the bone chips are no longer a problem, he'll be the No. 4 starter in the Nationals' rotation to open the year.
STEPHEN STRASBURG
He's in the rotation if: He's so dynamic this spring that the Nationals have no choice but to put him in the majors. That's a possibility--Strasburg has the stuff, and at least some of the knowledge to figure out the big-league pitching puzzle at age 21. He needs to develop a changeup, though, and while the Nationals say his knee is healed after he hurt it in the Arizona Fall League last year, they're not going to take any chances with him. Strasburg's 100-mph fastball is electric, but it can flatten out at times, and he'll likely get hit around by an experienced lineup at least once this spring (like the Cardinals did to Jordan Zimmermann last year). But there's no question Strasburg's ceiling is higher than anyone else in the Nationals' camp. And he's got the capacity to force his way onto this team.
Where he ends up: Ah, yes, the $15.1 million elephant in the room. You'll hear plenty about Strasburg this spring, from this outlet and plenty of others around the country. But in the end, he probably gets sent to the minors, at least for a brief tour of Class A Potomac (get your tickets now!) and Class AA Harrisburg or Class AAA Syracuse before making his debut at Nationals Park sometime this year. Rizzo prefers a slow path with prospects like this, especially with the kind of suffocating hype Strasburg will face this spring, and he could use at least a little time to tune his changeup.
So, to recap, my projection for the Nationals' Opening Day rotation is this:
--John Lannan
--Jason Marquis
--Scott Olsen
--Craig Stammen
--Ross Detwiler
Balester, Batista, Martis, Martin and Mock head to Syracuse (with the possibility Batista or Mock makes the team as a reliever) and Strasburg takes a quick tour through the minors before arriving in the District this summer.
All this, though, is subject to plenty of change -- there are some permutations that would include Estes or even Matt Chico -- but it's plenty of fun to speculate about.
So let's do a little of that: Leave your guesses for the rotation in the comments section, along with what you'll be watching from this group of pitchers this spring. Then, we can revisit those predictions throughout the spring. Maybe there will even be some publicly-acknowledged bragging rights for the winner, or a prize of similar financial value and prestige.
The polls are now open. Get to it.
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Categories (click for archive)Ben Goessling | Nationals News |
I predict:
Lannan
Marquis
Batista
Stammen
Mock
I think Detwiler picks up where he left off last spring and really shows he's ready for a prominent role in the Nats rotation, while Olsen needs more time to get back up to full velocity. Mock takes the 5th spot because this organization has really liked him for a long time and want to see him grow in MLB:
Marquis
Lannan
Detwiler
Stammen
Mock
Very interesting. My post at the Hutch this morning reprised the list I'd given at the SABR meeting, which was from a PowerPoint deck that I'd submitted before the Nats signed Batista. Plus, on reflection, I need to give Martin a chance, soft tosser or no.
So, upon reflection, to begin the season:
Marquis
Lannan
Martin
Mock
Batista
Strasburg's your #1 when he comes up, which will be in May (which will make him a Super Two but the Nats seem not to care much about that, witness JZimm).
Mystery man is Olsen. I'm feeling the odds are against him, but they're beatable odds. Thing is, I don't think his chances can be judged on a continuum: like the little girl with the little curl, if he is good he's apt to be very, very good, and if he is bad he's apt to be horrid. If he comes up he'll likely battle Marquis / Lannan for ace; if he doesn't, he may be washed up.
Lannan
Marquis
Olsen
Stammen
Martin
--unless of course, they sign Washburn or Smoltz or make some sort of deal for a Starter, which would not surprise me.
I see Martin beating out Detwiler because the former throws strikes and works fast, which this infield (I'm looking at you Guzman) seems to need in order to stay in the game. Rizzo and Riggleman clearly appreciate Martin (and Stammen's) and approach and attitude, which wins them spots 4 and 5. Detwiler needs to put together a little more than just a few good starts in September. And if Olsen's arm is done, move Stammen and Martin up one and add Mock, who need to sink or swim.
As you point out, there's a lot riding on health (especially in Olsen's case) and spring training performance, but here's my guess: Lannan, Marquis, Olsen, Mock, Detwiler. I think those last three are the candidates with the most upside potential. In other words, if everyone is healthy and pitching their best, those three should emerge, assuming Dtrasburg is going to be in the minors for at least a month or two.
I don't think it is going to be an easy or a clear decision, but I suspect that Olsen won't be able to hit low 90s making his other pitches more hittable.
I personally love JD Martin, but I don't get the feeling that Rizzo and Riggles want all soft tossers... which is why I think they will go Mock over Martin even though I would prefer otherwise.
I figure no Detwiler, because I'm not convinced that he'll be able to replicate September and I think they will end up trusting Batista or some other veteran for April...
But what do I know?
Ok. Marquis is probably the number 1 guy, but Lannan should get the Opening Day nod. Besides, as Riggleman says, after the first cycles through the rotation, order doesn't really matter so much anymore.
So:
Lannan
Marquis
Olsen
Mock
Stammen/Detwiler (still can't decide. Stammen's cuter, so there's that)
Frankly, without having heard about Riggleman's love for Mock, I'd have put Stammen in 4 and Detwiler in 5. Not that I don't like Mock, I just sorta forgot about him.
On Olsen! On Jason! On Martin! On Lannan!
On Martis! On Garret! Detwiler and Stammen!
You're all pretty fungible so bask in the light
Before Strasburg arrives, because then it's Good Night.
Season Start Rotation
1 - Marquis
2 - Lannan
3 - Olsen
4 - Detwiler
5 - Stammen
Post-All-Star-Break Rotation
1 - Marquis
2 - Lannan
3 - Strasburg
4 - Batista
5 - Mock
September 1 Rotation
1 - Strasburg
2 - Strasburg
3 - Strasburg
4 - Lannan
5 - Whoever
Marquis, Lannan, Stammen, Detwiler, Balester break from Camp 2010
Mock, Strasburg, JD, Martis AAA.
2011 rotation
Strasburg, Marquis, Lannan, Detwiler, Balester
The sleeper in the rotation will be Balester. He will get 10 plus wins in each of the next two years. That will go along with Each guy in this rotation winning at least 10 games in 2011. 2011 will be the year the Nats make the playoffs.
Here's another entry in the "but what do I know?" category (and that's a rhetorical question, btw ;-)). This is assuming that we don't acquire another veteran pitcher by opening day. I'm a little iffy on Detwiler, but what the hey.
Marquis
Lannan
Olsen
Stammen
Detwiler
For the grand prize, maybe a bag of Doritos?
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I can do a bag of Doritos. I was thinking of organizing some kind of meet-up at the end of spring training, so maybe the winner can be recognized there, in Cool Ranch or Nacho Cheesier form. Or, we can find another prize. I'm flexible.
Ben
I'll throw my opinion in the ring.
2010 Starting Rotation -
Lannan
Marquis
Olsen
Mock
Detwiler
I am trying to keep it L-R-L-R-L
Ideal rotation would be 2011 would be
Strasburg
Lannan
Zimmermann
Detwiler
Marquis
I think Stammen makes his way to the bullpen this year. He was great the first and sometimes second time through the lineup... but come the third time and he got rocked.
He'd be a great ground ball option out of the pen.
I'm not sure what happens with Balester, Martin or Martis.
I think Balester could certainly be a wild card that works out for the Nats. Martin seems like a AAAA player to me because his lack of a strikeout pitch... and Martis seems like a flash in the pan to me. (I'll gladly eat my words if he can turn into something special).
Basically, no matter who starts the year in the rotation... it'll be better than last year if only because Daniel Cabrera is no longer part of it.
My rotation is:
Lannan
Marquis
Olsen
Detwiler
Stammen
If any of the last 3 slip up in spring, I could see Martin or Mock claiming that spot. Martis is young and could probably use more seasoning, but I still like him a lot. I think Batista will be part of the bullpen and be used as a spot starter. Balester really needs to show a lot as he not impressive last year. Finally, Strasburg will be part of the rotation, but not until later in the season.
A meet-up is a great idea. See, if it's the Doritos, we'll know that the winner is all that and a bag of chips...crickets...
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I can do a bag of Doritos. I was thinking of organizing some kind of meet-up at the end of spring training, so maybe the winner can be recognized there, in Cool Ranch or Nacho Cheesier form. Or, we can find another prize. I'm flexible.
Ben
Marquis, Lannan, Guy we Traded for, Detwiler, and Stammen
I predict:
Marquis
Lannan
Olsen
Mock
Stammen
My list:
Lannan
Strasburg
Marquis
Olsen
Mock - when they need a 5th starter
Count me in, though I don't post as much as some of you, I am on every day reading waiting for pitchers/catchers.
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Oooh, the first Strasburg pick for the Opening Day roster! Kind of like an NCAA Tournament pool, you might need a gutsy pick or two to win this thing.
Ben
LOL nationals anthem! Ben (or anyone else who knows), what is the story with Matt Chico, BTW? Sure seemed to be a nice guy.
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He'll be in big-league camp, competing for a spot on the roster. He's healthy, though I don't know if he'll get a look as a starter or reliever. I'd guess it's the latter.
Ben
Chico did start 31 games for the Nats in 2007, going 7-9 with a 4.63 ERA. He pitched 167 innings, which is over 5-1/3 innings per start. Those may not be Lannan-like numbers, but they're better than anything Mock, Stammen, Martin, Martis et al have ever put up. He's still only 26 years old. If he can pick up where he left off before his injury/surgery, I'd say he's a better starter than any of those other guys. Of course, as with Olsen, that's the big if.
Marquis
Lannan
Olsen
Mock
Stammen
Actually I think that the fifth starter hasn't been signed yet, I still think they are going to get another pitcher, either via trade or free agency. Smoltz is still out there, and so is Livan. But if no one else is acquired, I think Stammen will make it over Detwiler.
Mock is going to make the rotation unless he has an awful spring, IMO. At Natsfest Riggleman repeatedly mentioned Mock in the same breath as Lannan.
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Yeah, I heard a lot of the same things. I've got to be honest--I don't quite get it. They like Mock because of his stuff, and there's no question he's got a better repertoire than almost anybody who's got a shot at this thing, sans Strasburg. But he hasn't put it together with any consistency in the majors yet, and he still gets behind in the count too much. Maybe that will change this spring, or maybe he's getting a good look because he's running out of chances. We'll have to see how it all plays out.
(Also, so we're clear: Is this a pick for those five, or do you want to sub out one of them for a to-be-acquired starter. I won't make you name the starter, but if you want to save a spot for a free agent or trade acquisition, that's fine with me. Just wanted to double-check. There's a lot riding on this thing, you know.) :-)
Ben
John Lannan
Jason Marquis
Scott Olsen
J Martin
Craig Stammen
John Lannan
Jason Marquis
Craig Stammen
Miguel Batista
Garrett Mock
My rotation:
Lannan
Marquis
Mock
Martin
Olsen
Stammen will probably overtake Martin or Olsen in May/June, but this is how I see the beginning of the season shaking out.
Marquis
Lannan
Stammen
Detwiler
Strasburg (5th differnt starter used - ala Jordan Zimmermann in '09)
Hi Ben,
We had a kid named McGeary or something like that who Bowden worked a deal for, so the kid could stay at Stanford. All accounts were the kid was a phenom. Where is he now?
Thanks/KM
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Well, he's been less than phenomenal with the Nationals--he got demoted from Class A Hagerstown to short-season Vermont last year, just as his former Stanford buddy Drew Storen was arriving at Hagerstown. Click here for McGeary's career stats.
Nice kid, but just hasn't been consistent yet.
Ben
Thanks Ben for your answer to my question on McGeary.
Isn't that case an object lesson in why not to pick Bryce Harper? Again, a nice kid no doubt, but there's no way I'd use the number one pick on somebody 17/18 years old playing at a minor college. Who knows if he'll ever be able to hit an MLB slider, much less throw out MLB base-stealers?
Do you agree?
NatsDNA
I'll have a go at it -
Lannan
Marquis
Stammen
Olsen
Martis (only because he's out of options)
Detwiler, Martin, Balester, & Mock all go to SYR.
Not sure my guess is any different but I am thinking:
Lannan
Marquis
Olson (man I hope he is healthy)
Mock
Detwiler
tough to leave Stammen off & of course I think Strasburg will be up sooner than later
This would be my guess: Lannan Marquis Martin Detwiler Stammen
Curious about people's thoughts on Strasburg "loading" issues. There's been talk, since well before he was drafted, that his mechanics may lead to arm/shoulder problems before he gets too deep into his pro career. Does anyone know whether the Nats are working at minimizing the stresses in his arm by tinkering with the early part of his delivery? I assume opinions vary, but at the mlb management level, is such an approach generally seen as advisable with this kind of talent?
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Nats people I talked to about this last summer said they didn't have any issues with Strasburg's mechanics. They said his delivery was clean, and didn't need to be changed. That said, I've seen a lot of the websites that break down his mechanics and point out the trouble spots. We'll see in another week or so what his delivery looks like.
Ben
I'm going to do a may rotation
Marquis
Lannan
Wang
Olsen
Mock
Number 1 being marquis only because lannan is young and it takes some pressure off him, though I do think lannan will have a better season than marquis.
Olsen will slide in at the number 4 slot, in my opinion its his last shot to show he has anything. If no free agent / trades are made I'd put martis into the 5 hole, as he did have some decent performances last year (as I think of the phillies game where he let up two bombs to ryan howard and was smoked) haha but he did have some good appearances. Detwiler will be in the mix by june or the all star break.
Hey ben I got a question for you, after the last two pathetic seasons where I watched almost every game and saw the awful line ups put out there, this years team looks solid with a real chance to push .500, my only question is who does elijah dukes have embarassing pictures of? I don't know why they keep giving him a shot, I feel like we have seen enough K's on picthes way out of the strike zone and he has too much trouble with curve balls, if its may and he is at his usual self I never want to hear his name mentioned again w the nationals, I am very comfortable with the current starters except for him. He really needs to have a quick start, I can deal with the rotaion being sub par in the 4,5 slots as it is better than last years lannan, then 4 minor leaguers. To me its all about 2011 when zimmermann comes back and strasburg is ready to go.
Opening day roster:
Marquis
Lannan
Olsen
Mock
Martis(though I'd love to see detwiler or chico step it up in the spring but that very doubtful)
Detwiler's injury knocks 10 or so prediction out, including Bens.
Looks like the Livo signing may make this a best 4 out of 5.