The future Orioles payroll
There are those who call the Orioles "cheap" because they didn't spend on a big name free agent this year.
Others say this wasn't a top free agent class and the time wasn't right for the O's to make a move like that.
Some look at the Orioles' payroll and see plenty of room for future spending. I won't argue that point.
I expect the O's payroll, which was reported to be about 67 million last year, will probably be in that neighborhood again this year.
There are a couple of reasons for that. Keep in mind the large number of players on the O's roster that are first or second-year players and not even yet eligible for salary arbitration.
I don't have the exact figures but a good guess would be that Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, Felix Pie and Jim Johnson could cost the club somewhere in the neighborhood of five million in salary for the 2010 season.
That's for eight key players.
Add on guys like Matt Albers, Kam Mickolio, David Hernandez and Jason Berken as still lower salaried players not yet eligible for arbitration.
Now project a year or two or three down the road when players like Wieters, Reimold, Matusz and Jones will be eligible for salary arbitration.
This year, Jeremy Guthrie will likely see a pay increase from last year's $650,000 to around three million through arbitration or a pre-hearing contract agreement.
That's an increase of 2.35 million, and remember, Guthrie led the league in losses and homers allowed and pitched to an ERA of 5.04.
I point this out, not to knock Guthrie, but to point out how the arbitration system, which players are eligible for after their third seasons (some after two years), so greatly benefits the players. Salaries skyrocket upward through arbitration.
If Guthrie gets that jump after a poor season, what could it cost the club if Matusz, Wieters, Reimold and company all become arbitration eligible after big years?
Andy MacPhail has to think about this. You and I don't have to.
The Orioles are enjoying having good young talent at a low price right now - but that won't last forever.
How much will it cost the club if the O's pursue a solid free agent at shortstop next winter? What about if they go hard after that so called "big bat" next offseason?
The payroll will be going up - there is no way around it and I'm sure MacPhail knows every dollar he can save now might help him some later and allow him to resign perhaps more of his top young talent two or three years down the road.
Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander got a five-year, $80 million dollar deal this week. What if Matusz or Tillman or Arrieta or Erbe is Verlander-good two to four years from now? How much will they want in a long-term deal? Can the O's keep all of them?
It cost the O's $106 million in combined long-term deals to redo Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. What will the bill be like for Wieters and company down the road?
Baseball players do make huge salaries. But most don't get the real big money until at least after they have completed three seasons. All teams want first and second year quality talent because it comes at a lower price.
That changes though. While the eight players mentioned above come at a collective low price, the four key players added this year - Kevin Millwood, Mike Gonzalez, Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada - will cost the club around $25 million this year.
I can't imagine any fan wants the O's to turn into the Florida Marlins and produce good young talent, only to lose it every time a player is due for a long-term, big-money deal.
Maybe, the O's are "cheap" now. They can do that with all this young, not-yet-ready for arbitration talent.
But the bill will come due before too long.
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Categories (click for archive)Orioles News | Steve Melewski |
Steve,you hit the nail on the head! Most people that post on these blogs dont have a clue what the heck they are talking about. AM knows what he is doing.
And let me ask some of you this-Why would any of you want to push for the Orioles to sign a pitcher ( Bedard )who isnt able to pith from the get go?
P.S. Miss having you in Frederick Steve!
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Hey, Rusty, Frederick and Frederick County is one of my favorite places on this earth. Wonderful area filled with wonderful people and I loved my five years in radio at WFMD from 1982-87. I still get a kick out of going back there now for Keys games.
I think a lot of people (especially Andy bashers) overlook the cost it will take to pay Jones, Wieters, Reimold, etc, just through arbitration over the next few years. That's not even mentioning signing them to long-term deals, which will also be in the not too distant future......Steve
Steve
Somehow I don't think Orioles fan's will mind if the team mirrors the Florida Marlins... As long as the team wins the World Series every once in a while like Florida seems to do.
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I don't agree. I think the fans will get attached to players like Wieters, Reimold, Jones and Matusz and will be most unhappy if some or many leave via free agency.....Steve
Very well written Steve. Revenue saved now will surely need to be spent a few years down the road if the Mr. Angelos and Mr. McPhail do indeed strive to be competitive in the future. Of course, that's not allowing for dollar value in relation to inflation. Hmmm. Kinda of frightening, eh?
Very good points Steve.
If all of our guys become studs we're going to probably lose a few. I do hope we get to worry about this later on because I want all of our guys to be stars instead of busts. Great work lately Steve - keep it up!
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Thanks, Omazing........Steve
This article is very misleading everyone thinks that our young pitching is going to cost us hundreds of millions in the next few years to maintain. That is a bold faced lie.
Cole Hamels in his 3rd season signed a 3 year 20 million dollar extension
after winning a world series MVP for god sakes. (So Matusz under control for 5-6 years will cost around 30 mil including arbitration MAX)
Josh Johnson (we can only hope Tillman will ever be that good) 4 / 39 extension less than 10 mil a year, less than Roberts makes
Tim Lincecum (we don't have anyone nearly as good as Lincecum-could have had him, he went 1 spot after Rowell!) and he is going to arbitration asking for 13 mil.
This is why teams love their own young pitching it is CHEAP for 4-5 years and even when they're on the level of the pitchers mentioned above, 4 years of control is under 10 mil a year for all but the rarest of cases.
Compare those figures to the FA pitching market or the second big contract in a pitcher's career and THAT is where the big money happens. If we lock them up in a year or two to 4-5 year extensions it isn't going to cost the club that much money. The O's had a payroll of 97,000,000 in 2007 and that team was terrible. They have the money to offer extensions and contracts, they just have to catch them early.
Steve,
Enjoy your articles, keep up the good work. Miss you on the Terp pregame and postgame shows though.
For all your contract needs, you should go to Cot's baseball contract website. They have all the salaries listed up through 2014. The O's are currently at $64.8M, not including Guthrie's salary.
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I do go to Cot's site and used it for background for this story. Thanks for the nice words about my Terps coverage. I miss it.......Steve
Steve,
I HOPE that all these young guys turn out to be good enough that we have to spend that kind of money. I am gitty just thinking about it. And though I would love to keep them all, but at the right time, hopefully Andy can pull of some more miracle Bedard-ish, trade. I have never been so excited as a fan about the future(im only 22) ...12 DAYS!
Steve...Good thoughts in your post. Successful small market teams must avoid the large salary bill for expensive free agents and needy arbitration eligable players if we want to compete every four to five years. It is part of what I call the small market competative cycle. The cycle starts by hiring a new executive, then a teardown of the team including jettison of the expensive players (even Cy Young guys) for young cheap talent. Improvement of player development and scouting acquires new young cheap talent. The organization holds on to a few cornerstone players to build around. As newly acquired young cheap talent becomes competitive, the small market team adds affordable veteran talent to allow the team to compete for a small window of time against the large market big free agent spenders. Fans are happy for a short period of time and Nestor closes his pie hole. Then, the young competitive talent and veteran players become unaffordable to the organization based on revenue streams and the cycle starts over. When you have to give up two pitchers like CC and Lee, its painful and makes a lot fans ticked off. Your post shows that the window to be competitive can be short for small market teams. Good job.
PS Only those short sided people think the Orioles can spend there way of this losing streak. They are old school uncreative thinkers.
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Nestor??? Who is that????
Agreed! but why dont the o's do what tampa did with longoria with weiters? Its a little risk but is a potentially huge cost saving contract?
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Who is to say they won't? He will not even have two full years of service at the end of 2010 and cannot be a free agent until after 2015. They have plenty of time to work on a long-term deal for Wieters. In the meantime he will be a lower salaried talent at least this year and maybe for 2011 too.......Steve
Steve,
I'm one of those who particularly enjoy watching a player develop and stay with an organization -- like we've had the opportunity to do with BRob and Nick. With this approach, the team seems like family or community instead of a business. It will especially great with this solid bunch they've got coming up.
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There is a tradition here with players like Brooks, Cal and Palmer playing here throughout their entire careers. That is a traditon worth embracing with this current group. It started with B-Rob and Nick and should continue for years with the current young players.......Steve
The O's are bound to lose some of their players when they come up for free agency, it happens to everyone. Players like Ripken and Jeter are very rare, but if the O's can re-sign guys to smart deals that hold on to them through their prime, then that is something I'm in favor of. The O's have to be smart with their money.
Steve,
It is easy for fans to call Angelos cheap, but is it thier money being forked over? They simply want to complain simply to complain. Those same people were yelling at the rafters to stop spending high dollar on aging players years ago. They wanted good young players through the draft.
Well, this time is now and these talking heads want to spend again until the cows come home. They cannot have their cake and eat it too.
BTW, I heard the Orioles signed Joel Guzman to a minor league deal. He was once a high rated prospect in baseball. Was he given a invite to Sarasota to push Andino?
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According to a story in the Baltimore Sun, he was not given a spring training invite. That doesn't mean he could not find his way over there or be added at a later time......Steve
Dave asked,
Why dont the o's do what Tampa did with Longoria with Weiters?
Because Scott Boras is Wieters' agent, and he would never in a million years allow him to sign that type of contract. And looking at it from a player's viewpoint, any agent who would should probably be fired. Sure, Longoria gets some security against a career-ending injury, but he'll spend most of this deal playing for way under market value. And I don't believe the deal has any out clauses, either. If the O's could get Wieters to agree to a similar deal, more power to them, but it'll never happen.
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Good point about Boras and you are probably right about the contract situation as well.....Steve
Brett,
You did a good job in twisting things around, the only one that twist the truth here is you. Steve didn't say our pitchers would cost us hundreds of millions, he gave you 5 or 6 names, not all pitchers, that we will have to deal with in 3 or 4 years. Now Steve was right that this free agent market wasn't very good and really had no one we needed or was worth the money and years they were asking (Holliday for example). This is a business and there is no need to waist money.
Another line you said I find funny is this one:
"Tim Lincecum (we don't have anyone nearly as good as Lincecum-could have had him, he went 1 spot after Rowell!) and he is going to arbitration asking for 13 mil."
The giants didn't know if Lincecum was going to be as good as he is now, he was 10th overall so many teams passed him by. So how do you know if any of our prospects are as good? Where was Pujols drafted? Piazza? Even scouts who get paid for what they do don't always see the diamond in the rough. I am surprised Steve even let your post go through after calling him a liar.
Steve, very good job on the post. Alot of people here wished they were as smart as you. This should be pasted to Roch's, Schmuck's and Nestor's blogs.
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Thanks Rich for your nice comments......Steve
Steve-
A team can stay competitive if it drafts well, and scouts IFA's well, for the ballpark of about 110-130 Million.
Now, if the O's start to win, and get that attendance back up to 3 Million a season, that should be NO PROBLEM for the O's if they were at 95 Million 13 years ago.
Wouldn't you agree?
Also, if I dug in the Sun archives, I could find the interview with Angelos where he says he understands it will take in the neighborhood of 120 Million to compete year to year, and THAT was probably 5 or 6 years ago.
Look at Bischotti, he was basically saying the other day at the Raven's PC, that, if the WR that he wants is there, he will come out the 5 Million of his PERSONAL Wallet to land the guy.
Like Herschel Walker and Vince MCMahon back in the day. Or Steinbrenner with Reggie Jackson.
Angelos can operate the team at a loss for a while if he really wants to win. Come outta his own pocket.
The is all sort of mute if they trade for AGon after next year, then lock him up for 5 years $110 Mill.
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Ryan, while it helps to have payroll latitude, you simplfy it much too much. The Mets paid 149 million last year to win 70 games and Houston 102 million to win 74. On the other hand, the Rockies won 92 games with a payroll of 75 million.
I could see the O's payroll going to 80 or 90 million just in arbitration cases over the next couple of years. Add a key free agent or two and that could easily be 100 million. That figure will not guarantee success. It is about the talent you acquire, not how much you pay that talent...............Steve
Excellent post, and you are 100% on target there. All of these young guys are going to be getting extensions at right around the same time, give or take a year, and we need to have a lot of money off the books if we are going to retain a majority of them.
On that note, I DON'T want a huge free agent shortstop signing next year, unless there is an overwhelming candidate (I haven't looked at the list of people available next year just yet). I am perfectly fine with Cesar's stellar defense and wouldn't mind him signing an extension, nor would I mind another 1-2 year stop-gap as we did with the corner infield positions in 2010. Both of those options make more sense than shooting yourself in the foot by throwing out $100 million at a big name.
Very solid points and hard to dispute that costs will be higher in the future for those players who do pan out. It does appear to be a pre-emptive counter-argument for those who will clearly have to wonder why exactly Andy MacPhail said that he would acquire a middle of the order bat *this* offseason. I am not even going to complain that he did not, but for someone who plays it so close to the vest, do you have any thoughts on why exactly he said what he did after the end of last season? It's not like he said, "I'll see what's available and determine whether a big bat is attainable." He said he was going to get it done. Full stop. And it is confusing as to why. I like the construction of this O's squad but it needs another veteran pitcher and a true clean-up guy. Neither are currently on the roster. But heck, I've waited this long. What's another year?
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I've debated the need or lack thereof for a true cleanup hitter, so let's not go there again so soon. I need to review some previous stories, or feel free to link a Masn or Sun story where MacPhail said he would get a cleanup hitter. I do remember him saying he would "buy the bats." I'm not saying he didn't say that, I don't remember the exact words. Whatever, I still like the lineup balance and think this team will be decent on offense, even without a 40-homer guy........Steve
Right on the money Steve. I wonder how Nestor feels, knowing that he is the laughing stock of Baltimore sports journalism? What a clown that guy is.
Hey Steve great story here, but what we all remember who Weiters agent is! And his agent likes to engaged his players value on the open market to the highest bidder!
Revenues are only half the equation. Costs are the other half. The Orioles costs are very low. Whats important is earnings which equal revenues minus costs. Over the last seven years the Orioles have the third highest earnings in all baseball. In fact their earnings were 300 million higher than the Yankees over the period. In 2010 they have an excellent shot at breaking the highest earnings over the last 20 years, 43.7 million. The Orioles are swimming in money, with way more than enough to cover a higher payroll now and future expenses. They are a large market team behaving like a much smaller market one to hoard money.
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My only question would be, if no MLB team opens its "books" how can anyone know what thier profit margin is? Is this someone's estimate or do they claim to know the teams costs and where did they get the information? Steve
PS - If you are saying, and I'm not sure you are, that the O's are only interested in a profit, why up Nick and BRob for 106 million. Why not just pass on Wieters and pocket his 6M bonus. Why give Tejada 6M, why not just sign Crede for one million. Why not sell the naming rights to Oriole Park, almost all teams do this including the one right next door. The O's could probably get 5-10 million a year, maybe more, in naming rights.
Why did they upgrade the teams video system, the fans can't see that. Why send John Stockstill to Japan 50 times a year, just save that cash.
The numbers are from Forbes. I do not know if they are actuals or estimates. Gee wouldn't it be something if a media type did some research and found out how good the numbers were. If they are estimates I would expect them to be good estmates as the Forbes group is talented and respected. If the estimates are good or even consistent they show Angelos running the team to make money with winning secondary.
Angelos has found a nice equilibrium position where he makes a lot of money while appearing to compete. To totally not compete would save money in the short run but not be as profitable in the long run as gate receipts would totally plummet. To truly compete, and we could afford a payroll of 120 million, would not be as profitable. The Yankees and Red Sox totally compete, we make money. To answer your article as our young players make more money there would be older players phasing out of the 120 million payroll. We don't need earnings of 60 million a year for 4-5 years to afford eventual payroll increases.
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You are entitled to believe what you believe. So you say Peter Angelos is that good of a baseball man that he acquires just enough talent to make money and still "appear to compete." So he must know his team will fall short and not win enough.
If Nolan Reimold has 20 homers at the All-Star break, will he be told to back off in the second half because they don't want that to lead to too many wins.
Okay Dave, but I happen to feel that winning with a young exciting team could lead to fan excitement and to better attendance and to better TV ratings and more ads sold and more money for the franchise, but call me crazy.......Steve
Excellent post Steve. I really like your approach to hot button issues like this. There are so many people out there (especially on Schmuck's blog) who honestly believe that the Orioles and Angelos don't care about winning. That he's just in the business of owning a baseball team to make money. I understand that these people are incredibly angry and tired of losing, but they are also short sighted in the evaluation of the current state of the team. They are products of our instant gratifaction culture and can not see the bigger picture, ala the past/present/future. For all of those people you should put up a post that simply says: LARGE PAYROLL DOESN'T EQUAL WINS!!! LET'S MOVE ON.
Any clown could be the GM of a team like the Yankees as Bisciotti pointed out recently. Considering how much he's outspent the rest of the league for the last decade, as a Steinbrenner I would be mad as hell to only have the one world series title to show for it. There's no doubt in my mind that the Orioles are going to have an opportunity to compete for league and world series championships in the next few years 2011-2014 or so. And they will have done it under the shrewd direction and decision making of Andy McPhail and the player scouting and development offices. When they get there the payroll will be over 100 million, due to arbitration and a few savy free agent pick ups. I wonder what all the people who are questioning Angelos's desire to win vs. hoarding money will say then?
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They'll probably come up with something, but you make some good points. It amazes me that people think the O's are in business now only to line Peter Angelos' pockets. I don't know the man's wealth, but I'm pretty sure he doesn't need a penny from the baseball team and he's doing fine without it.
All opinions are welcome, but I believe as you do that spending money doesn't equate to wins. They spent plenty of money on Albert Belle and a few years back spent all that money on the bullpen and what did it get the team. Just poor contracts that hampered the club.
As I pointed out the payroll is about to make a steady increase over the next several years and one day, hopefully sooner than later, they will win enough and show enough promise to sign a big money guy to become one of the final pieces of the puzzle.
Steve
Guthrie is going to arbitration? Well I certainly can understand why, he led the league in two important pitching catagories, most home runs allowed and most losses with a sparkling 5.04 ERA. I don't understand what the O's problem is, he wants $3,000,000 and after a year like he had, a 460% increase seems fair. AND ABSOLUTELY IDIOTIC!!!
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Welcome to the arbirtation process in MLB........Steve
Steve,
You've made that BRob/Markakis point a few times. Those contracts are small for players of their caliber - maybe Markakis is market value. And they are home grown talent. The O's know they'd alienate the last remaining fans by not signing them. That's a no brainer decision.
And building through the draft is the cheapest way to do it. It's realistically the best individual way to do it. But only one piece of that pie. To use it as a crutch for signing top FA talent is not how serious teams approach this game.
But when it's time to spend the money - like on International Free agents - we are a joke. I don't think I've seen MacPhail explain the Sano fiasco yet. Especially since we are supposed to be looking into international markets more - not just over the hill Asian pitchers and 37 nobodys.
We have no big time SS prospects and the best one (from all scouting reports - including what i read on MASN) Sano comes out of the Dominican and we get outbid by the Twins. Questions about age? Twins had them too - and they put all those nice clauses in his contract.
The Pirates GM last week came out and said how he would've easily paid what the Twins paid and was aggravated he didn't get the chance to match the Sano offer.
When asked why the team failed to sign Miguel Sano at FanFest, [Pirates] GM Neal Huntington gave a very interesting response.
"Take your frustration level and multiply it by a million when I got the phone call (that Sano signed with the Minnesota Twins)," Huntington said. "I didn't get it done. I relied on the agent to live by his word that he'd come back to us and give us a chance to make our final bid. We never got the chance."
"We were never in the game for a player even looking for $250,000 out of Latin America before," he said. "This may be one time we were overly aggressive — we moved too quickly."
Where is MacPhail's similar reaction to Sano? I'd like to hear it. That's a GM addressing fan aggravation over an error.
I like how Sano is now the #97 prospect in baseball and is wearing an Orioles hat in that pic cause we gave him one. But when it time to actually give him money...Well we did our usual routine.
As a fan, I don't need Holiday/Lackey/Bay reasoning behind not signing them. I'm fine with it.
But I would like a Miguel Sano one. That one got me just slightly less frustrated than Tex.
Because if the top international prospect at $3.15 million is too rich for our blood, I assure you real free agents will be too. I'd be happy to hear - "we blew that one." And i'd respect the FO for it more. Not some "too rich for what we deemed worth it." Or "if he was so good why weren't the Yankees/Red Sox in on him." That's ridiculous. When a top prospect is within our grasp - GRAB HIM.
Nice article Steve. One that's not often thought about. Yeah, people think about how much money was spent (poorly more often than well), how much they're paying guys now and how much the O's should offer free agents for the next couple years (since its so easy to spend the money of others and take such a microscopic view). But people don't often look beyond that. I'm sure MacPhail does and has a general idea of how to handle it. A lot will happen over the next 4 or 5 years that will make some decisions easy while others become harder. Having this nice bevy of talent certainly makes the future look bright. Maybe the glow over the horizon is from all the gold that these young men will be earning soon.
Rich D - you beat me to the punch regarding Brett's comments. He seems to not remember that Lincecum just finished his 3rd year in the league. Let's just hope that Matusz and Tillman meet with the same success and both are asking for $13M in arbitation after their 3rd year (though they'd probably be asking for $15-16M with inflation). Let's also hope that Bergesen has even half as much success and asks for $7-8M/year to buy out his arbitration years and a couple in free agency. While we're dreaming, let's also hope that Wieters and Reimold have the numbers to ask for long term contracts before they become eligible. I think what Steve is suggesting (correct me if I'm wrong) is that if these Baby Birds continue to have success, things could get a LOT more expensive a LOT quicker than one might imagine.
Jedd - I'd like to think (and maybe I'm just naive about this) that the O's brass really did want Sano and was quite disappointed that he chose, for whatever reason, to sign with the Twins. I, for one, am glad the O's brass chose not to cry about it in public. In the end, what good does it do. It makes your GM look like a crybaby. "Waa-waa...I didn't get the guy I wanted...thought the agent would be true to his word." Actually, the quote from Neil Huntington that I read here (http://www.twinkietown.com/2009/9/30/1061746/agent-rob-plummer-minnesota-twins) was very gracious, saying the Pirates "wish Miguel nothing but success in his future." All-in-all, whether its drafting or international signings, you win some and you lose some. I'm sure the O's see this one as "one that got away" and "one we'd like to have had another shot at", but that's the way the baseball bounces.
Angelos and Macphail have yet to win anything...still waiting- third season now....all the happy talk in the world isn't worth much...
There will come a time when Angelos will have to put up real dollars in order to "compete"....if he doesn't, then just remember that some of us were right all along.
But the fact is that Angelos and Macphail have sold this line to the remaining believers now for the third year in a row....the Orioles unfortunately are unlikely to be competitive this year or any other year in the AL East without investing more dollars in their product...
SoBoHoBoS,
Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't we hear "he was never going to come here last year." And that's not a whining excuse? That sounds like one to me. If it's the biggest offer and "he was never going to come here" that's not whining.
I'm guessing we weren't the top offer on Sano either. Oh wait we weren't:
Nice quote here:
The Post-Gazette says that Rob Plummer, Sano's agent had agreed to contact Pittsburgh if he were to receive a deal with another team so that Pittsburgh would have the opportunity to match that offer. However, ESPN's Jorge Arangure says that, "From my understanding, the Orioles were given a chance to match. The Pirates were not given that chance." The Orioles were the only other team that had reportedly made an offer to Sano, other than the Pirates.
A few weeks ago, we learned the Pirates had offered Sano $2.6 million, which was rejected. The Orioles offered him $2.5 million.
If we are so opposed to bidding high on top tier free agents. I'd like to know why we weren't the highest bid on Sano. Do we not need elite SS prospects? The Twins have a $96 million payroll this year though so obviously their major market status must be why they can afford to go after top tier international free agents. Same with the A's who go after the top shelf international free agents.
But the O's signed 37 international players probably for a combined total of $37 this year. I'm excited about that step forward in progress.
When have we won some with international players? I know we've lost a lot.
Jedd - I'll have to admit that I didn't follow the Sano story quite so closely as it seems you did. Yes, the O's are in need of a SS prospect. According to your quote from ESPN, it seems the O's were given the opportunity to match the Twins $3M offer. But how do we know that just matching or even exceeding the Twins offer would have landed him? Maybe there's someone on the Twins team he's friends with. Maybe he likes the prospect of playing April games in Minnesota in the new open-air Target Field (though being from Cuba, I doubt that would be the case). Maybe he just flat out didn't want to play for the Orioles and was using them to make the Twins increase their offer. Maybe he thought the Twins were closer to winning (like it has been suggested for Bedard in Seattle) and he liked the idea of playing October games in at Target Field (see above). Maybe $5M would have gotten him, but the Orioles they didn't think that bringing a relatively unknown talent from Cuba was worth that risk. Is Sano more of a known talent than say Grant Green who Oakland selected with the 13th pick in the draft and signed for $2.75M? Is he twice that good. After all, the Orioles could have chosen him instead of Hobgood and then not even had to worry about Sano.
My point is that while everyone can state their opinion (and yours is well stated and supported), I just think its pointless to complain about what we as lay-people (I assume you're not part of the Orioles' FO) perceive as a lack of effort. We really don't what's going on in the Warehouse in that regard. It does seem they're making an effort. I heard/read that they're putting more money into international scouting. I've heard/read that Joe Jordan spends 90% of the year on the road, meeting with the regional scouts. They're making the efforts. We just missed out on this one. I'm disappointed too, but I'll just hope even harder that they'll get the next one.
BTW - You didn't forget about the Koji signing last year, did you? I'm sure you discount that by him being on the wrong side of 30. I seem to remember there were a number of teams that were interested and we "won" that bidding war. He actually pitched rather decently last year and I look forward seeing him on the mound again this year.
SoBoHoBoS,
How do you know? Well you try and you find out. If you look at Sano's prospect picture he's wearing an O's hat in it. And if this report is true we were given the option to match the offer and didn't.
This guy was compared to a "potential" Hanley Ramirez. And you are excited about Koji? We were the only team that viewed him as a starter. Look it up. It's why he signed with us. And he had the conditioning of a 1st week Weight Watchers program member. We saw that last year. And this year he's an overpaid bullpen arm. Success!
I'd rather have a prospect with the potential for Hanley Ramirez then a washed up mid-30s Asian pitcher. Those be the facts. Koji was NEVER helping us win anything even in a best case scenario. Sano could've been a building block for the future. But we played budget with the situation as usual. For all this "building from within" talk - I'd like an admission from the FO they blew the Sano deal. Especially after MASN had articles about how the O's LOVED HIM.
And SoBoHoBoS - I may not be in baseball. But I am in advertising and I know media markets. When MacPhail was in Chicago he was in the #3 market - yet his budgets ranked in the teens in payroll. There was an article in I believe the Chicago Tribune about how he understaffed his front office to save money. Besides Wieters/Matusz and that ain't much $$$ there is nothing in MacPhail's entire history that suggests he'll actually spend money.
And if he's the next commissioner in 2012 do you really think he'll be an aggressive spending GM? You think that's what makes for a good Commish in other owner's eyes. Was Selig a big spender?
You and I are both O's fans - I just have a different viewpoint than you on this.
I like all the trades and recent drafts - but those again are the absolute 2 cheapest ways to build a team. This year's free agent class sucked? What was last year's excuse - oh yeah - we weren't ready.
Next year's? We'll roll out the "he wasn't coming here excuses" again. ( To compare to Chicago-MASN's combined media market is #4 in the nation and has two teams like Chicago) - The Sano incident was a perfect example of budget baseball. We wouldn't match a $3.15 million offer for the unanimously thought to be #1 international prospect this year?
This isn't the Glenn Davis - scared of the boogeyman - trade theories or the "break the bank" for one player excuses. This was the top international free agent in our grasp and $3.15 million was too much to offer. A freakin joke. And I personally would like a PR free explanation. I know it's not their obligation to. But I would like one. I realize I won't get it.
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Jedd, you are really entrenched in your position on this one. Sometimes the team will comment on a player they DID NOT sign but not often, much to your disappointment. Why didn't they sign Delgado, what about Crede, what about Garland. It is not fair to ask the team to address every player they don't have but maybe soon we can ask MacPhail more about Sano. My guess is whatever he says you are not going to like.
You said the O's contracts for Roberts and Markakis were small for players of their level. You think an avg of 10M per year for Roberts and 11M for Markakis is small?
I respect your opinion, but don't you agree with any of this article and that the payroll is lower now at least partially because of so many first and second yr players on the roster. And that the O's have to at least account for the possibility of the payroll going up significantly over the next few years as the youngsters go to arbitration and some sign long-term deals.
I think you can't just say because they didn't sign the player you wanted means that they are unwilling to spend...........Steve
Steve,
I absolutely am stuck on this example because of how ridiculous the front office played it. It's inarguable they made a mistake here. This was the #1 international prospect - and we could've had him reasonably. We are a joke on international free agent signing.
Unless your 6 ft 10 Australian pitcher with an above 6.00 ERA in Australia is what we should be calling success.
We had Sano - we blew it. If we are building from "within" and then let the #1 international prospect slip through our fingers over what $600-$700k? That doesn't aggravate you Steve?
We can't say we didn't want him, because MASN had articles with I believe Jordan/Stockstill saying this guy is the real deal - etc etc. Steve you may have written those articles. Didn't we hold a 3-day private session for him and came away raving about him?
Now the people who always defend the O's moves will go "$3.15 million is a lot of money for an unproven international player" and those same people can watch year after year as the O's come up short. Is $3.15 million a worthwhile risk to land somebody who may become Hanley Ramirez? I think so.
Just like the draft you may not get that potential ever. But are we so scared of risk that we thought Sano was too risky? We should have our players use the little league helmets with the plastic face guards too if the FO is that scared of risk.
We aren't really serious about international free agents until we sign a serious one. Not go and sign 37 of them nobody had highly regarded. Or the crown jewel - Koji. I bet he goes down on how NOT to approach international free agency. I believe Chapman's annual salary comes out to about Koji's. Just more years. Potential #1 starter - 100MPH fastball. Too rich for the O's blood again. But that's another rant and I can actually understand why the O's passed on him.
And it doesn't take a massively expanded team of scouts to get the #1 prospect. A checkbook with the appropriate figure on it will do it.
I could care less about Delgado or Crede - worn out, broken down, retreads. We sign them and it's more of the same. We are about building for the future. Those 2 aren't future - Sano was.
Garland? I don't want to sign any more "innings eaters." My definition of "innings eater" isn't somebody who lasts a bunch of innings while giving up 4-6 runs. That's been the O's definition whenever I hear the term "innings eater". Not mine.
So I don't seek explanations about tier 2 talent.
Steve, you are absolutely right $10-$11million contracts are alot of money. But realistically what would Markakis and Roberts get on the open market. Even Roberts would probably land $12-$13 a year. He's not Orlando Cabrera/Hudson. His skills have not diminished.
Markakis? Didn't we just see what Holiday got? He's not quite Holiday - but I personally don't rate him much far behind him. So those contracts in my eyes were very reasonable. And Steve you know they had to be done. What kind of backlash would the O's have gotten if they didn't do them? Talk about low attendance. My beloved Frederick Keys would beat the O's in attendance if they didn't re-up those 2.
Steve I agree with you that our young talent - will cost us money in those arbitration yeas. But EVERY team has to consider that. EVERY single one of them We aren't the only one in that boat. I assume the Blue Jays will have that problem with all the talent they amassed this offseason. I like what that GM is doing and we know the Jays will go near or above $100million in payroll because I believe they got pretty close a couple of years ago.
And you are right, I can't say they are unwilling to spend regarding not signing the player I WANT. But I can say it when $600k keeps them from signing the player THEY WANT. Especially when that player fits so perfectly into the O's long range plans. I mean they did offer Sano $2.5 million which was the lowest offer on the table - but still "alot of money." Hmm...lowest offer on the table, but alot of money...why does that line of negotiating seem familiar to me...
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All I can say at this point, is you've worn me out. I will not even attempt to make any points in response. I just don't think you need to keep making your point over and over, but at least for a while, I'll approve the comments if you insist. We know your feelings at this point, we really, really do.....Steve
Good morning Jedd, Steve and all who are snowed in.
While I respect your opinion, I feel you're barking at what you think is behind the door. I wish I could use those HTML codes to add italics to "think", but I'm not that tech-savy.
Yes, the O's made an effort. They even gave him a hat, which he was wearing when his head-shot was snapped and now used by all, even though he signed with the Twins. This is just evidence that they made an effort and apparently were pretty close with him. I don't suppose the O's just give a hat to every potential signee they talk to (wish I had those italics again).
As for Koji, I said I was "looking forward to seeing him pitch". I didn't say I was "excited". But Koji's signing just helps prove my point - the point you seem to be missing. Yes, we apparently were the only team that offered him a chance to be a starter and that may have swayed Koji's decision. But we weren't the only team that was making him an offer. In that effort, we "won". The other teams "lost". And all their fans are probably saying "why didn't we just offer him more money?" Well, maybe because money wasn't as important to Koji as being given a chance to be a starter.
Maybe its the same for Sano. Maybe the Twins were able to offer something that the O's just couldn't do - like playing in the AL Central. Maybe his agent wanted the O's to raise their offer just so he could get a bigger contract from the Twins. Maybe the O's realized this and said "we not going to be a pawn in your game". Is it wrong to be prudent? Maybe, maybe, maybe...there's just too many things that we don't know. That's why I feel its pointless to say the FO "blew the Sano deal".
While it certainly would be nice to have a guy with Sano's "Hanley Ramirez potential", I think a sensible FO is a better thing to have. There are lots of guys out there who have lots of potential and turn out to be busts. Spending money like you can print it is the kind of mistake that can hurt for years to come - think Mike Hampton, Gary Matthews or Vernon Wells.
Clearly having a prospect SS wasn't that high on AM's priority list. If it was, maybe he would have spent more (and I emphasize "more" because just matching the Twins offer probably wouldn't have landed Sano). If having a prospect SS was a priority at that time, maybe the O's would have drafted Grant Green instead of Matthew Hobgood with their #5 pick and paid him a little more than what Oakland did to sign him ($2.75M). I contend that Green is more of a known quantity, having played college at USC, than Sano is playing for the Dominican Republic (excuse my mistatement in my previous post about him playing for Cuba).
Well, I'm off to shovel snow.
LOL...well, I'm back from shoveling...only shoveled far enough to clean off the dish satellite and the stairs - although I've got nowhere I need to go. Probably gonna have to do it again this evening.
Not sure which tired me out more, the shoveling or reading your post Jedd. Unlike Steve, I've got one more volley left in me. I wrote my 10:50 response before Steve had passed yours through, so I feel just a little obligated to follow-up.
#1 international prospect? Is this list available somewhere for all to see?
I don't contend that the O's didn't want him. I think they wanted him just as much as any team wants a "Hanley Ramirez potential" prospect. Who wouldn't? Maybe Flordia since they already have a Hanley Ramirez-level SS. What I'm saying is, how do you KNOW we had him? How do you KNOW that it was only $600-700K that stood between us and Sano? If the Twins offered him $3.15M (which he accepted), how do you KNOW that another $600-700K would have gotten the deal done for the O's? How do you KNOW that Sano didn't ask for $5M from the O's?
How can you say the O's aren't serious about international scouting? While this seems to have been true not so long ago, its pretty evident that they are putting a lot more resources into this area. While you could have said the O's international scouting a few years ago was a joke, I don't think that's a valid statement today. Just because they missed out on one guy, all of a sudden its a joke?
And speaking of missing out...how is it that you rant about missing out on Sano, but can understand not signing Chapman and his 100mph fastball. You'll have to explain because it certainly sounds like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth.
While I agree with your feelings about guys like Delgado, Crede and Garland, I disagree with your philosophy of "A checkbook with the appropriate figure on it". Throwing money at players like that is a good way to find one's self in a financial mess in a real short time.
Which is what Steve's article was all about in the first place - the O's have to watch their spending carefully if they want to keep all the talent they have right now. While all teams will have to do this, most teams don't have to address it to the degree that the O's will have to since they have SO many elite prospects who are all going to arrive at that arbitration hearing about the same time. How many teams can you name that are going to have 5 prospects command as much money as this group likely will in 4 or 5 years?
There...I think I'm done now too. You can have the last word. Nice debating with ya. =)
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You guys are good readers and fans of this site. You probably just need to agree to disagree at this point and we will revisit this later, perhaps much, much, much later.....Steve
SoBoHoBoS and Steve
We'll agree to disagree. At the end of the day we are all rooting for the O's. We just root different ways. Down here in SoFla we have tons of Ravens fans. There's a bar in Delray Beach called "Brus Room" - every sunday there are probably between 60-75 Ravens fans. We basically control that bar. And the "Brus" in Brus room is a former Dolphins player. So we outnumber Dolphins fans in a supposed Dolphins bar.
It's great. Then when you try to talk about O's with the Ravens fans - it's like you just made fun of their mothers. They are all disgusted with the Orioles and could care less about them. The most they'd sacrifice is a trip 20 miles south to Fort Lauderdale to see ST. Now they won't even do the Sarasota trip.
This is the state of the O's. Now me - I fly up about 3 times a season. I get the MLB package to watch them. If we had made a trade for AGon, (and it does look like he's officially on the market now) - I would've bought season tickets and just let my friends use them when I wasn't in town to see games. That was going to be my catalyst for getting season tickets even though i live in SoFla.
So I'm bought in to being an O's fan. But I, like many other fans, don't just sit back and applaud what looks like in my opinion less than full effort to put a winning team on the field in all points - not just drafting and a couple o' trades.
So I do apologize for the rant, but this one little issue really aggravated me this offseason. And I would've liked it addressed - i'm not saying it would be. I appreciate your sarcasm SoBoHoBoS with the "hat" thing. I was using it as well, because a $2.5 offer when its the lowest on the table is the equivalent of giving Sano nothing more than a hat. The sarcasm was lost though on that one. And if we drive up the price so what? I've never seen why that is a bad thing. If we aren't going to get a player - make the other team pay as much as possible. Maybe it hurts the other team in some other area of their budget.
I know that "Hanley Ramirez" potential quote irked you - but look up the scout reports on him. You will find that exact reference many times. And i think you'd agree the scouts no more than you and I right SoBoHoBoS?
I do appreciate your optimism though. I wish i had it. I can't wait to get it again - but something besides promise has to occur before I get it back. I'm excited about the promise - but skeptical about the long term still.
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Okay, end of discussion, we all move. Thanks!!!!! Steve
Steve,
I got a kick out of your quote about the Florida Marlins. Even an Orioles homer like you has to admit, the O's farm system isn't half as good as the Marlins(especially regarding position players)
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Nice cheap shot at me, but I'll respond anyway. Keith Law rated the O's farm as 6th and the Marlins as 12th. Maybe you meant to say the Orioles were twice as good. No one says he is the expert of all experts, but I'll just bet he knows more about it than you and isn't an "O's homer" like me. Whatever man, don't let the opinions of many, not me, about the O's system, get in the way of your barbs. Keep 'em coming......Steve
Joel Guzman is listed now as 6'6'' and 252lbs and hasn't played SS in years. His latest stints came as 1b/3b/corner OF; so I really doubt he's going to push Andino. His power had declined and he's shown no progression in walking more and striking out less. Purely a depth move for middle tier minors.
The Cleveland Indians in the mid 90's when they experienced a resurgence with Mike Hargrove had lots of young talent that they locked up to long term deals at then above market value for players of their experience, but saved them tons of money down the road.
Basically with every single younger player (Jones, Wieters, Reimold, Matusz, Tillman, etc) will be in a position to play a full year and get a very good idea of where they stand as a key piece to the team for the future and then the Orioles could possibly start talking extensions with these players before they hit their free agent year and avoid some arbitration cases. If the team shows some commitment to winning over this time and treat their young guys wonderfully, maybe they consider sticking with their home town club when offers to go elsewhere might be coming.
Intriguing article. Were did you arrive at all of the data from... :)
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Cot's Baseball Contracts website has payroll info on teams and individual players. That's a great resource and just my knowledge of the arbitration system and the service time of some of the players and you can make some accurate conclusions.......Steve