SARASOTA, Fla. – To say that Jackson Holliday’s exclusion from the Opening Day roster is a stunning development wouldn’t be accurate. I felt like I kept advising people to brace for bad news, that it wasn’t a sure thing.

It ain’t on ‘till it’s on.

I gave Holliday less than a 50 percent chance before the Winter Meetings, jumped into the 60-70 percent range while flying out of Nashville, and came back down as Holliday’s strikeouts rose.

The improved at-bats and overall impressive play moved me again, but never to the point of feeling secure in his placement on a mock roster. I straddled that fence until it left permanent marks. Take my word for it.

One reason for my hesitancy in thinking that Holliday would be in Baltimore March 28 is how it went against the club’s usual cautious and deliberate handling of a top prospect in making the jump from Triple-A to the majors. This isn’t new. Or have we forgotten the Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson watches?

SARASOTA, Fla. – Three months after Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias described Jackson Holliday as “definitely a very strong possibility” to make the Opening Day roster, baseball’s No. 1 prospect was told that he’s beginning the season at Triple-A.

A promotion that wasn’t etched in stone crumbled in Sarasota. The dust was thick.

Holliday was counted among seven cuts but got the bulk of the attention and fan reaction after batting .311/.354/.600 with three doubles, two triples, two home runs and six RBIs and 15 games. His comfort level expanded at second base, where he figured to get the vast majority of his work with Gunnar Henderson entrenched as the starting shortstop.

“Obviously a very tough decision on all these guys,” Elias said, making certain to include outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers, who were optioned, and infielders Coby Mayo and Connor Norby, pitcher Albert Suárez and catcher David Bañuelos, who were reassigned to get the camp roster down to 38.

“We have a lot of players with a lot of really good statistics in camp, and a lot of them were sent out today, so that’s hard because these guys have put themselves in such a good position in terms of their performance and the kind of shape they came in. Making spring training evaluations, it’s more art than science, and all these guys did a great job of putting themselves in the thick of the competition and distinguishing themselves, even with this talented camp.”

SARASOTA, Fla. – Jackson Holliday will begin the 2024 season at Triple-A Norfolk.

The Orioles announced this afternoon that prospects Holliday, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby were reassigned to minor league camp and outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers were optioned.

Right-hander Albert Suárez and catcher David Bañuelos also were reassigned. But Holliday is the big news.

Baseball’s No. 1 prospect batted .311/.354/.600 in 15 games, with three doubles, two triples, two home runs and six RBIs. He was vying for playing time at second base, with Gunnar Henderson entrenched at shortstop.

Today’s move with Holliday could signal that the team is keeping Ryan McKenna as a fifth outfielder or carrying second baseman Kolten Wong, whose opt-out date is today.

SARASOTA, Fla. – The camp roster held at 45 players yesterday. Jorge Mateo is confirmed for Opening Day in Baltimore.

Can the remaining decisions be simplified to, who’s the last reliever and bench player? Are we actually at that point in spring training?

A reduction to two spots with this many players on the major league side is interesting, to say the least.

To say the most, this is the correct math if bullpen locks are Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Mike Baumann, Dillon Tate and Keegan Akin. And if we’re waiting only to find out whether Jackson Holliday is on the Opening Day roster or the Orioles decide between second baseman Kolten Wong and a fifth outfielder like Kyle Stowers, Ryan McKenna or Heston Kjerstad.

In hindsight, it isn’t that simple. It’s more than just two players going head-to-head for one job, like the good ol’ backup catcher wars of past spring trainings before James McCann arrived.

A few odds and ends as there are now just a few spring games left. An odd number of five actually and that will be the end of spring training in 2024.

We are all about ready for a new season to start at this point.

Rookie fav: We don’t even know for sure yet whether the Orioles Jackson Holliday will be on the Opening Day roster. But according to DraftKings Sportsbook, he is the favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award:

* O’s Jackson Holliday at +250.

* Texas’ Evan Carter at +300.

When it comes to the Orioles, we have seen it happen in recent years, we have seen it happen last year and we have a historical perspective of it as well.

It is that a young player, even those ranked as No. 1 prospects in the sport, can and often do struggle at the outset of their major league careers.

Two words come to mind - patience and expectations. Patience to give the young player time to settle in and feel comfortable at the big league level and to start to put up numbers. And expectations which must be managed early on for that player. It’s OK to have high expectations, we should for top prospects, but it is also ok to give them time to realize the expectations. Often a lot of time.

Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are now emerging stars on the Orioles and already considered among the top players in the game. They have at least a couple of things in common in that both shot up to No. 1 in prospect rankings and both had some early career struggles.

Hard to believe it now, but Rutschman, who had his MLB debut on May 21, 2022, was 13-for-74 after his first 20 games with 18 strikeouts and no RBIs. That is zero RBIs. He was batting .176/.256/.257/.513 at that point. Over 113 games on the 2022 season he would hit .254/.362/.445/.806 and finished second for the Rookie of the Year award and 12^th in the MVP voting.

DUNEDIN, Fla. – Jackson Holliday keeps pushing to make the Orioles’ Opening Day roster.

Two more hits today, including his second home run, and a walk were the latest arguments for it. He can’t be ignored. He won’t let up.

Blue Jays veteran Chad Green served up the homer with two outs in the fifth inning, with Holliday driving a curveball to the bar area beyond the right-center field fence. The average increased to .326 with a .998 OPS.

There must be something about TD Ballpark. Holliday hit a grand slam here in a March 10 split-squad game.

“I do like hitting here,” he said. “Usually the wind blows out, so it’s pretty favorable.”

We hear big league managers and front office types say something similar early each spring training. They hope there are a lot of tough decisions to make at the end of their camp. They hope a lot of players play well.

It doesn’t always happen. It probably doesn’t often happen.

For the Orioles, this year, it did happen.

Kyle Stowers is batting .297 with an OPS of 1.181 and seven spring homers. Colton Cowser is batting .364/1.246 with four long balls. Coby Mayo is batting .366/1.068. Even a more veteran player like Errol Robinson has gone 6-for-16 this spring. Tyler Nevin has hit .302 and Connor Norby is 6-for-20.

On the mound, the Orioles have nine pitchers with ERAs of 0.00 that have thrown at least three innings.

SARASOTA, Fla. – A second off-day of the spring provided rest and recreation to a group of players who would rather hit a golf ball than the wall.

What it couldn’t accomplish is the task of figuring out how to pare the camp roster to 26 players. That’s a higher pay grade.

Competition is great. It’s also a pain in the rear because players who should be introduced to a packed house on March 28 will be working out in Sarasota and waiting for the minor league season to begin. Seems unfair but that’s business, the kind from an organization that’s operating at a much higher talent level than in the past.

The rotation is at least close to set with Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin, whatever order beyond the ace. Let’s assume that Rodriguez and Kremer are two and three.

But what the heck is going on with the position players?

SARASOTA, Fla. – Two off-days in one spring training? This must be how the other half lives.

I’d ask why the Orioles usually don’t get multiple breaks in their schedule, but I’m here to supply answers. That’s supposed to be my contribution to the mailbag.

You remember the mailbag, of course. Sequel after sequel to the beloved 2008 original. Informative, mildly entertaining, never edited except for your crude profanities.

I’m not worried about length. It’s the freakin’ internet.

Your style is fine with me, though I’d lengthen those shorts.

SARASOTA, Fla. – The at-bats and innings are going away. Boxes will arrive in front of lockers to ship belongings to Baltimore or other destinations. Meetings that shape the Opening Day roster will continue.

The days are dwindling but the work that remains is stacked high.

As the team prepares today for split-squad games against the Braves in Sarasota and Tigers in Lakeland, the latter being one of the worst trips of the spring that’s avoidable because of the home action, here are some more thoughts, questions and curiosities:

* Will Ryan Mountcastle return to the lineup?

Mountcastle went 2-for-4 with an RBI double and run-scoring grounder Tuesday against the Rays in Sarasota, but he hasn’t played in the last four games.

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. – Dean Kremer jogged from the dugout to the mound today for the bottom of the fifth inning. He got another up. And he got the chance because he was cruising.

Kremer retired nine batters in a row and he wasn’t done. With Albert Suárez ready in the bullpen, Kremer threw all three of his pitches for strikes and Francisco Mejía flied to center field.

Now, he could sit down after registering his longest outing of the spring.

Ten in a row were retired since Kremer hit his second batter of the day. He allowed one run and two hits in 4 1/3 innings, with one walk and three strikeouts.

In four exhibition starts, Kremer has surrendered six runs and 12 hits and struck out 11 in 12 1/3 innings.

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. – Colton Cowser is playing left field and leading off this afternoon against Rays right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa.

Jordan Westburg is playing third base. Heston Kjerstad is in right.

Jackson Holliday is starting at shortstop after playing in last night’s “Spring Breakout” game in Bradenton. Connor Norby, who also played last night, is the designated hitter today.

Dean Kremer is making is fourth start, with Albert Suárez on the trip to pitch in relief. Kremer has allowed five runs and 10 hits in eight innings, with three walks and eight strikeouts.

Coby Mayo is listed among the reserves. Among players coming over from the minor league side are outfielder Dontá Williams and infielders Anthony Servideo and TT Bowens.

BRADENTON, Fla. – The much-anticipated and aggressively hyped rematch between Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday and Pirates ace-to-be Paul Skenes lasted six pitches tonight. Holiday struck out with the count full and Skenes didn’t return for the second inning.

He’ll never be accused of wearing out his welcome. Just the batters who have to face him. And maybe a few catcher’s mitts.

Skenes’ fastball in the Orioles' 3-1 loss was clocked at 100.6, 101.7 and 101.1 mph during the at-bat. He began the game by striking out Enrique Bradfield Jr. on three pitches – at 100.6, 101.1 and 101.7 mph.

Last year’s first-overall draft pick out of LSU put his stamp on the inaugural “Spring Breakout,” retiring the side in order by breaking Connor Norby’s bat – it sure sounded like it, anyway - with a 96.6 mph sinker that produced a ground ball to third baseman Jack Brannigan.

Statcast identified the pitch that fanned Holliday as a 91.6 mph four-seam fastball. That’s wrong. Skenes hasn’t thrown a four-seamer in the low-90s since he was in preschool.

This time last year, the Orioles Jackson Holliday and Samuel Basallo – now the club’s top two rated prospects – were a couple of weeks away from reporting to Low-A Delmarva to start the 2023 season.

A year later both have continued to impress and progress as prospects and now they are two of the best in the sport. While Holliday is everyone’s No. 1 prospect, Basallo is ranked No. 10 by Baseball America, No. 17 by MLBPipeline.com and No. 27 by ESPN.com.

Two studs to help lead the best farm system in the sport and both could be in the lineup tonight at 7:05 p.m. when the O’s prospects play the Pittsburgh Pirates prospects in Bradenton in the Spring Breakout game that will be televised live by MLB Network.

Basallo played in his first spring game Monday and went 0-for-3 combined Monday and Tuesday. He has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow and is not ready to catch yet but can take at-bats in games as the DH.

If Holliday and Basallo are in the lineup together it will be the first time for that duo since they played for Delmarva late last April, before Holliday was moved to High-A Aberdeen. By the time Basallo later got to Aberdeen, Holliday had moved to Double-A Bowie and by the time Basallo played four games to end his 2023 season at Bowie, Holliday had moved to Triple-A Norfolk.

SARASOTA, Fla. – The Orioles are venturing into a unique part of the exhibition schedule today. Not a split-squad, which has been done twice already and is happening again Sunday and March 23. The first Spring Breakout game will be played tonight in Bradenton as the back end of a doubleheader against the Pirates.

Is it over-hyped. Oh God, yes. And the matchup between Jackson Holliday and Paul Skenes, the last two first-overall draft picks, already played out in Sarasota. We’ve seen it, much to the chagrin, I’m sure, of Major League Baseball.

Holliday grounded out on the second pitch thrown by Skenes, and the right-hander was done after the first inning. You blinked at your own risk.

Skenes is starting again tonight in this battle of top prospects, and Holliday probably is leading off again and expecting to play five innings. They probably will square off at least twice.

“I think any time you get to face somebody, it gives you a better idea of the second time you get to face them. So I’m excited about that,” Holliday said this week on a conference call. “It was awesome. It was a really cool experience to have so many No. 1 picks on the field. I don’t think that happens too often. It’s a really talented group down here in the Sarasota and Bradenton area, and it was a lot of fun.”

SARASOTA, Fla. – Cole Irvin didn’t bother to track the entire flight of the ball that Atlanta’s Orlando Arcia hit over the left field wall with a runner on base in the second inning. He turned to catcher James McCann and held out his glove. Bring on the next batter.

Irvin was a more engaged spectator on Jordan Luplow’s ball later in the inning that landed pretty much in the same spot. He thought that one had a chance to stay in play, and he showed just a smidge of frustration as he again spun toward the plate.

This wasn’t Irvin’s night.

The left-hander allowed six runs and seven hits in his first three innings, with three walks and three strikeouts. He threw 63 pitches, only 37 for strikes.

Brought back for the fourth, Irvin walked a batter in between a fly ball and popup and exited at 73 pitches, 41 for strikes.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Tyler Wells has done most of his work on back fields and away from media fixated on Grapefruit League games. His only start before today was March 1 in North Port, when he shut out the Braves for two innings and faced only six batters after a single and double play.

Twenty-three pitches, 17 strikes and 11 days until his next appearance.

Manager Brandon Hyde said earlier today that Wells remains in the starter competition and should be accumulating the rest of his innings on main stadium fields.

“Try to go four innings today, 60-ish pitches,” Hyde said. “We’re definitely building him up. … It’s important he gets these next few starts in.

“I think he’s thrown the ball really well this spring. Looks like he did in the first half this year.”

On Dec. 4, Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, turned 20. He was a teenager no more. The next day at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias let the world know the kid had a good chance to make the O's 2024 Opening Day roster.

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said that day, getting reporters attention in stating it so strongly.

Fast forward to this spring camp and the kid that is 20 is starting to really swing it well in spring games. After getting two hits versus the Yankees in Tampa Monday afternoon, he is 10-for-31, batting .323/.344/.613/.957 with two doubles, two triples and a homer. He is 6-for-14 his last four games.

Manager Brandon Hyde said the stat sheet will be just a small part of the evaluation of Holliday. But the kid is handling everything well thus far, from opponent pitchers like the Phillies Zack Wheeler and Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi, to every national reporter that wants his time to the fans that clamor for autograph.

He fits in well in a clubhouse where he is the young guy and the rookie and to me, he is looking like someone with a great chance to break north for the opener. Just like Elias said in December.

TAMPA, Fla. – While the Orioles continue to evaluate Julio Teheran as a possible rotation or bullpen piece, they’re about to find out how he handles spring training adversity.

It finally arrived today.

Teheran hadn’t allowed a run or hit in his first two appearances over three innings, but the Yankees scored four runs in the bottom of the first while working him for 27 pitches, and he was done after 2 1/3.

The pitch clock violation before his first offering to leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu was a bad omen.

LeMahieu struck out on a slider, but Alex Verdugo singled, Anthony Rizzo walked, Giancarlo Stanton reached on a fielder’s choice – Rizzo was safe at second base – Trent Grisham walked to force in a run and Austin Wells drove a changeup into left-center field for a three-run double.