It’s going to take a while to shake the odd feeling that arises upon seeing Anthony Santander trot onto the field in Blue Jays blue.
Santander waltzed onto the diamond as Baltimore’s opposition for the first time on Thursday. He’ll do it again on Opening Day after signing a five-year, $92.5 million deal with Toronto this offseason.
“First time in a spring training game playing against my team,” Santander told reporters down in Florida on Thursday. “They gave me the opportunity to be a big leaguer.”
There’s emotion, and then there’s baseball logic.
From an emotional standpoint, it would be hard for an Orioles fan not to be attached to the joyous outfielder.
Santander was a Rule 5 Draft pick by the O’s back in 2016. He had never played above High-A, but developed into a key piece of Baltimore’s rebuild. A stretch of eight seasons in an Orioles uniform culminated in an All-Star appearance last season, where the switch-hitter mashed 44 home runs, brought over 100 runners home and earned a payday in his contract year.
That payday just didn’t come in Baltimore.
“When you go to free agency, you want to stay with the team that gave you the opportunity, but at the same time, it’s a business,” Santander remarked.
The emotion surrounding Santander’s departure will be hard to shake. But the calendar has twice flipped since the signing. And as we approach the beginning of the season, any big shakeups to the O’s major league roster would be a surprise.
So, now that we have a good idea of what the Orioles roster will look like this season, let’s once again ask the question: did it make sense to let Anthony Santander walk?
Let’s start with Baltimore’s current outfield construction. Colton Cowser is going to be an everyday player, and Cedric Mullins is close to it. The question mark, of course, came in how the O’s would replace Santander’s production.
Tyler O’Neill is a big part of the equation. The Canadian signed a three-year, $49.5 million contract this offseason, with a potential opt-out after this year. That’s a much different risk than handing out a contract close to $100 million over five years.
O’Neill has struggled with injuries throughout his career, but is coming off a great season with Boston in which he hit 31 home runs with an .847 OPS. Santander’s career-high OPS (in a season with 50+ games) is .814.
Of course, you’re still short 13 home runs from Santander’s great season. Most are projecting more than 13 long balls to fly off the bat of Heston Kjerstad, who figures to be the O’s fourth outfielder this season. Kjerstad only has 52 games under his big league belt, but has flashed great numbers in his limited opportunities.
If O’Neill and Kjerstad can stay healthy, they should be able to combine to match Santander’s production. The right and left duo mimics Santander’s switch-hitting ability, too. They just take up one more roster spot.
Now, let’s talk about Tony Taters.
To preface, Santander earned a payday. 44 home runs, an .814 OPS and an All-Star appearance in a walk year. Plus, three-straight seasons playing over 150 games with at least 28 home runs. Not to mention, the veteran is an outstanding clubhouse presence. You won’t find anyone around the team that isn’t happy for him, myself included.
But, there were some valid question marks surrounding a long-term deal.
First, let’s start with defense. Santander, entering his age-30 season, was just 28th percentile in outs above average last season, according to Statcast. His arm value was 23rd percentile, and his sprint speed was 18th percentile. Overall, his fielding run value was 25th percentile in the game.
But, of course, if Santander is one of the best hitters in the game, the defensive metrics shouldn’t matter that much.
Taters’ 44 home runs were third most in the sport last year. He was 31st in 2023 and 13th in 2022. All great rankings. Last season, he was 26th in baseball in OPS among qualified players. But in 2023, he was 52nd, and in 2022, 54th. Above league average every year, but not elite among players that qualified.
What dragged Santander’s OPS down was his on-base percentage. Despite being 26th best in OPS, the outfielder didn’t crack the top-100 in OBP. He was sandwiched between Lane Thomas and Marcus Semien on that ranking, who each posted an OPS around .700.
You have to go all the way up to number 61 on the OBP rankings, Jackson Merrill, to find a player with at least an .800 OPS. The highest OPS by a player below Santander’s OBP mark of .308, among qualified players, was a .763 by Ezequiel Tovar. Who, by the way, was in the 98th percentile for outs above average last year. Merrill was 97th.
Santander’s .308 on-base percentage last year was his lowest since 2019. The number was up at .325 in 2023, and .318 in 2022. But, hitting 28 and 33 home runs respectively is a far cry from mashing 44.
You know what defense Santander brings, and the home run numbers will need to be gaudy to maintain a great OPS.
All this to say: Baltimore had very valid reasons to question whether or not Santander would live up to a long-term deal with big money attached.
The Blue Jays are paying Tony Taters like a top-50 position player in the game. Only time will tell if his offensive numbers are sustainable enough to prove them right.