Happy Hollidays everyone! The day is finally here: the start of Major League Baseball’s regular season. 

The O’s open up their new campaign north of the border in Toronto. With consecutive playoff appearances but no October victories to show for it, Baltimore has something to prove. 

An energy and hunger was palpable at spring training. The locker room is eager to compete for an AL East crown and find more postseason success. 

Who will lead the team in home runs? Who will be the breakout star? Who will have the best facial hair? A new season means new predictions; dart throws that certainly won’t be held against us at a later time. 

Yesterday on “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I handed out some superlatives. I’ve provided my predictions below, but for Annie’s picks and more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out the full episode here: https://masn.me/qt7qjk0i

Cade Povich looked sharp yesterday. 

No hits, no walks and no earned runs at Nationals Park for the final exhibition game of the season. 

“Really good. Wanted to get the guys in, get them out quickly and get to Toronto,” Povich said with a laugh. “Everything felt good.”

The goose eggs on the box score would’ve looked better if there was a box score. The rain in the nation’s capital didn’t let the Orioles and Nationals take the field for their final tune-up of spring training. There wasn’t a game, but Povich did look sharp. 

His outfit did, at least.

WASHINGTON – As it turns out, the window of opportunity wasn’t just ajar for Cade Povich. It was open, and “Slim” took full advantage. 

Povich won the fifth spot in the rotation and earned the right to hit the hill for Baltimore’s home opener. A big step up for the lefty, who began last season at Triple-A Norfolk. 

“First Opening Day roster, being able to start, make a home opener start, that’s a big deal,” manager Brandon Hyde said today in D.C.. “I think Cade’s got a great way about him. He’s very, very mild mannered, he’s very composed. I was really impressed with his maturity last year and how much he grew up, honestly.”

That growth was on full display during Povich’s final month of the season. 

He flipped a switch in his five starts in September. After an 11.81 ERA in July and a 7.36 in August, that number plummeted to a 2.60 to close the baseball calendar. 

Jordan Lyles did exactly what the Orioles needed him to do in 2022. 

Lyles was an innings eater. He posted every fifth day, making 32 starts and tossing 179.0 innings, averaging close to six innings per outing. The 31-year-old was the only member of Baltimore’s pitching staff to make at least 25 starts, and provided incredibly valuable stability at the top of the rotation. 

Baltimore won 83 games that year, a shocking 31-win improvement from the previous season. Lyles’ consistency and veteran presence played a big part in that turnaround. 

In 2023, Kyle Gibson was tasked with much of the same. Post every fifth day, eat innings and give the bullpen some breathing room. He delivered exactly that. 

Gibson was tied for the American League lead in starts with 33 and tossed 192.0 innings, 12th most in the bigs. He completed five innings of work in 28 of his 33 outings. 

The top two picks were obvious. 

Gunnar Henderson was always going to be the first selection in “The Bird’s Nest’s” 2025 Orioles fantasy draft. 

As Annie Klaff and I attempted to construct two teams of the upcoming season’s top contributors, Henderson was a slam dunk. Fresh off a fourth-place AL MVP finish and a 9.1 bWAR season, the superstar carried my 2024 iteration of this exercise. 

Adley Rutschman was always going to be the second pick. Despite down numbers in the latter half of last season, Rutschman has as much upside as anyone. A perennial All-Star, the catcher has been mashing his way through spring training, primed for another stellar campaign. 

With the third pick in our snake-order draft, Annie, who lost our coin toss and thus received the second and third picks, was left with a decision to make. 

Jorge Mateo played a baseball game on Sunday, his first since July 23.  

“He adds so much to our team – versatility, the speed,” Brandon Hyde told reporters down in Sarasota. “I love his energy he brings on a daily basis. We missed that last year.”

Despite the encouraging signs that Mateo is nearing a big league return, the odds that the speedster makes the Opening Day roster feel slim. Appearing in a spring training game is a big step, but many more have to be taken. 

Hyde continuously raves about Mateo’s value, noting his speed, defensive versatility and energy. The skipper’s approval is a big box to check. So while it isn’t guaranteed that Mateo will have a roster spot upon his return from injury, it seems likely. 

When that day comes, how will the Orioles make room for him on the 26-man roster?

It’s going to take a while to shake the odd feeling that arises upon seeing Anthony Santander trot onto the field in Blue Jays blue. 

Santander waltzed onto the diamond as Baltimore’s opposition for the first time on Thursday. He’ll do it again on Opening Day after signing a five-year, $92.5 million deal with Toronto this offseason. 

“First time in a spring training game playing against my team,” Santander told reporters down in Florida on Thursday. “They gave me the opportunity to be a big leaguer.”

There’s emotion, and then there’s baseball logic. 

From an emotional standpoint, it would be hard for an Orioles fan not to be attached to the joyous outfielder. 

The baseball gods are hardly ever kind.

Over the last few weeks, the Orioles have been hit with significant injuries. We’re not talking 2024 depths of despair level, but important enough to conjure similar emotions. Agony, dread, synonyms.

This week on “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I broke down the injuries and what they mean for Baltimore moving forward. While the topics will be introduced in this article, you can hear more in-depth analysis by watching the full episode here.

Andrew Kittredge 

Let’s start with the devil we know rather than the ones we don’t. Kittredge underwent an arthroscopic debridement procedure last week to repair cartilage in his left knee. The reliever told reporters yesterday that his original timeline was sometime between June and the All-Star break, but that early indications point to the earlier side of that. That’s good! What’s not good is losing one of the best setup men in baseball for multiple months. Kittredge is coming off a season in which he posted a 2.80 ERA, an off-the-charts chase rate and was money in high-leverage situations.

Over the last few seasons, you may have heard of a relatively new pitch: a “sweeper."

Popularized by pitchers like Yu Darvish and Adam Ottavino, a sweeper features more horizontal movement than a traditional slider. “Sweeping” action, to be exact. According to Major League Baseball's glossary, a slider typically has about six inches of horizontal movement, while a sweeper averages closer to 15.

While the sweeper is a variant of the slider, pitchers can throw both. The two offerings, with their drastic difference in movement, attack hitters in very different ways. The sweeper has been used around the league enough to earn a spot in MLB’s pitch type glossary, and its popularity will most likely continue to grow across the game.

There’s a new popular pitch in town that may earn its way there soon enough, too: the “kick-changeup.”

Perhaps you’ve seen highlights of this relatively new offering from pitchers like Clay Holmes and Andrés Muñoz. So what the heck is it?

The Orioles are in a different era. 

Consistently competing in the American League East, Baltimore can’t afford to give guaranteed, consistent playing time to prospects. Development, while still important, has to give way to winning baseball games at the big league level. 

Of course, this wasn’t always the case. 

Pitching prospects like Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer were never top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline, nor were they considered to be in the upper echelon of the O’s top youngsters. However, with a rebuilding phase at the big league level, they were still able to find pathways to relatively consistent playing time in the majors. 

Both players have been able to carve out roles in Baltimore: Akin out of the bullpen and Kremer as a mainstay in the starting rotation. They were given a chance to prove that they had big league ability and they made the most of their opportunities. 

A new season means a new MLB Pipeline prospect ranking. 

This week on “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I broke down some of the highlights from an updated top 30. You can listen to the full episode here: https://masn.me/6r1g411x

The Top Dogs 

Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo are two of the top prospects in all of baseball. Two of the best 15 in the game per Pipeline’s top 100, to be exact, and No. 1 and No. 2 in the O’s top 30. Basallo, now the top prospect in Baltimore’s system, has turned heads down in Sarasota with his eye popping exit velocities and defensive improvements. However, the catcher still needs seasoning in Triple-A Norfolk after posting a .638 OPS in 21 games with the Tides. That’s to be expected during your age 19 season. As for Mayo, there’s not much left to prove offensively down in the minors. Continuing to progress defensively at both third base and first base is the next step in his development. 

The Speedsters in Center 

The Orioles’ 2024 trade deadline was active. 

For the rotation, Baltimore acquired Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. To shore up the bullpen, a pair of flamethrowers from Philadelphia in Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. And to supplement a talented outfield, the O’s added Eloy Jiménez, Austin Slater and Cristian Pache. 

But how about a move that didn’t impact the big league roster? 

In late July, it was the move everyone was waiting for. 

The Orioles sent utilityman Billy Cook to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Pat Reilly. 

Spring is the season of dart throws.

The Orioles hit a bullseye last offseason when they signed Albert Suárez to a minor league deal.

Suárez hadn’t toed rubber in the majors since 2017, but became a key piece of the 2024 Orioles. The righty boasted a 3.09 ERA in eight games as a reliever and a 3.76 ERA as a starter.

“Big Al” may not have been a signing that turned many heads in 2023, but it was one that became consequential for Baltimore.

Naturally, many eyes are darting around camp in an attempt to find the next Suárez. A pitcher who, after an unsuccessful stint in the majors, bounced around to leagues all over the world to find his groove.

Ah, the first week of spring training games. 

The perfect time to toss out wild takes about the upcoming season based on an incredibly small sample size of games that hold minimal weight. 

What takeaways are overreactions? Which far-too-early conclusions could actually come to fruition? 

On this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest” (which you can watch here), Annie Klaff and I took a deep dive into some early storylines. On the way up, we’ll see which ones hold any water. 

Heston Kjerstad will have a 20-plus home run season

Location, location, location. 

Important in real estate, shooting a "The Lord of the Rings" movie and throwing a slider.   

I’m pretty sure that’s what people say.

Glancing at Andrew Kittredge’s 2024 Statcast page, you’ll find that the reliever only had one advanced metric that ranked in the 75th percentile or better: chase rate. 

In fact, Kittredge’s chase rate ranked in the 100th percentile in baseball last season, with batters swinging at 38.9 percent of pitches that the right-hander threw out of the zone. That ranked as the best in baseball among pitchers with at least 200 plate appearances against. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Baseball is a game of punches and counterpunches. 

Last season, Colton Cowser came out of the gates swinging. The former fifth-overall pick mashed his way through April and March to the tune of a .303/.372/.632/1.004 slash line. 

The elite defense didn’t hurt either. 

Cowser ranked in the 96th percentile in both outs above average and arm strength. His 11 OAA ranked eighth among all outfielders in the game and was best among left fielders. Couple great defense and an incredible start at the plate, and you’ve got an everyday starter. 

But then came a counterpunch. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Spring training can be a whirlwind. 

New faces, stars of the game and top prospects are scattered across the fields at the Orioles' spring training complex at Ed Smith Stadium. 

A team fighting to recapture an American League East crown has plenty of storylines. On “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I broke down some of the standouts from the early part of camp. For a more in-depth analysis, you can watch the full episode here.

Tomoyuki Sugano’s rockstar status

Sugano’s name may not have been on the radars of many around Baltimore, but it has rung like “Elvis” thus far at spring training. The three-time Central League MVP has drawn crowds of media at every step. And his first bullpen session in an Orioles uniform was sharp. Gary Sánchez joked that he could close his eyes and Sugano’s pitch would be in the perfect place in his glove. While it remains to be seen how the right-hander's stuff will fare against major league hitters, pinpoint accuracy and great movement on pitches like his splitter are never bad places to start. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – There aren’t many prospects in baseball with an 80 grade tool. 

The grading scale, ranging from 20 to 80, evaluates five different tools for position players: Hit (evaluating contact), power, run (evaluating overall speed offensively and defensively), arm and field. 

MLB Pipeline’s highest graded position player, Roman Anthony, doesn’t have a single grade above a 60. Nor does Walker Jenkins, Pipeline’s third overall prospect in their top 100. 

Coby Mayo’s prodigious power has a 70 grade according to Pipeline’s scouts. As do the power tools of some recent top draft picks like Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon. 

It’s very rare to find a perfect grade of an 80. Enrique Bradfield Jr., according to some outlets, has two: run and field. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Jordan Westburg is intense. Fans like intense. 

Would his friends and family describe him that way?

“Probably,” Westburg laughed. “I can be intense, you know? I’m not gonna dodge those allegations. But I do think there’s a lighter side, there’s a less serious side to me off the field especially. But here, I’m kind of very business-like, very matter of fact.” 

Westburg was all business in 2024. Flying under the radar entering the year, the third baseman put together an All-Star campaign. Westy posted a .792 OPS in his 107 games, but rather than boasting about the positives, he would point to the fact that his total wasn’t closer to 160. 

“I learned a lot last year from getting to play more,” Westburg said. “I was very bummed that I didn’t get a full season. I’m looking forward to trying to stay healthy this year and get a full season and see what we can piece together” 

Heston Kjerstad’s reputation is that of a powerful slugger from the left side of the plate.

So would you believe me if I told you that he and Jackson Holliday had the exact same career minor league batting average? Or that Kjerstad’s .387 on-base percentage was just three points below Adley Rutschman’s down on the farm? The Arkansas product has proved himself to be a well-rounded force at the plate, and an OPS close to .750 in limited action in the big leagues is a sign of better things to come. Manager Brandon Hyde and general manager Mike Elias seem to think so, too. 

“He’s put up huge Triple-A numbers, and there’s opportunity now,” Hyde told reporters down in Sarasota.

“I think he’s kind of earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching,” added Elias. 

As Elias said, Kjerstad has earned at-bats in the big leagues. But there are only so many swings and roster spots to go around.