"The Bird's Nest" hands out season superlatives

Happy Hollidays everyone! The day is finally here: the start of Major League Baseball’s regular season. 

The O’s open up their new campaign north of the border in Toronto. With consecutive playoff appearances but no October victories to show for it, Baltimore has something to prove. 

An energy and hunger was palpable at spring training. The locker room is eager to compete for an AL East crown and find more postseason success. 

Who will lead the team in home runs? Who will be the breakout star? Who will have the best facial hair? A new season means new predictions; dart throws that certainly won’t be held against us at a later time. 

Yesterday on “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I handed out some superlatives. I’ve provided my predictions below, but for Annie’s picks and more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out the full episode here: https://masn.me/qt7qjk0i

Most Home Runs - My pick: Tyler O’Neill 

Gunnar Henderson was an easy choice here, but let’s kick things off with a bang. Yes, Henderson hit 37 home runs last season, by far the most of any returning Oriole. But there’s a newcomer in town and he’s jacked. O’Neill has played in at least 100 games in a season twice in his career. In each of those years, he has hit over 30 dingers. Let’s project that the slugger stays healthy and that the left field seats get peppered. 

Highest OPS - My pick: Gunnar Henderson 

I tried to talk myself into another Oriole for variety’s sake, I really did. But Henderson had an OPS close to .900 last season, and there wasn’t a particularly close second. The newcomer in the lineup, O’Neill, has had an OPS of .847 and .912 in his two healthiest seasons, and could certainly be a challenger. Additionally, players like Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg could all have an OPS in the .800 or better range, which is outstanding. Ultimately, Henderson is the best player on this team, and I anticipate him hitting like it. 

Best Starting Pitcher - My pick: Zach Eflin 

If Grayson Rodriguez were healthy, this category would be a tossup. But Rodriguez’s status remains murky, and I’m left with Eflin as the obvious choice. The veteran had a 2.60 ERA in nine starts in Baltimore last year and finished in sixth place in AL Cy Young voting in 2023. His pitching style pairs wonderfully with an athletic defense behind him. He may be the most obvious answer, but that doesn’t make him the wrong one. 

Best Relief Pitcher - My pick: Yennier Cano 

My heart wants to say Félix Bautista. If The Mountain is back to full strength, he’s one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. But, a grace period for Bautista is needed. There will be limitations in his usage that will make 2023 hard to replicate. Cano, on the other hand, just keeps chugging right along. After an All-Star campaign a few seasons ago, Cano has since established himself as a reliable setup man. Among pitchers with 50 or more innings in 2024, Cano was top-25 in two of FanGraphs’ all-encompassing pitching metrics: Stuff+, measuring the physical characteristics of your pitches, and Location+, measuring your aptitude for putting the baseball in good spots. Expect nothing different in 2025. 

Best Prospect - My pick: Samuel Basallo 

It feels too easy to pick Coby Mayo or Basallo for this category. But our constant conversation about the dynamic duo doesn’t disqualify them from consideration. I went with the catcher here, as I anticipate that the 20-year-old will spend more time in the minors than Mayo will. Basallo only played 21 games with the Norfolk Tides last season and didn’t flash great offensive production. That’ll change. 

Breakout Prospect - My pick: Michael Forret 

A prime breakout candidate is one that’s projectable. If everything goes well and a prospect reaches their ceiling, just how tall is it? For Forret, his ceiling could be the best pitching prospect in the Orioles’ system. The former 14th round pick boasts an impressive arsenal of two fastballs, one of which reaches 97 mph, two changeups, a slider, sweeper and splitter. Like many other pitching prospects in Baltimore’s system, Forret needs to improve his command. But it’s much harder to teach stuff, and the stuff is outstanding. 

Breakout Star - My pick: Colton Cowser 

This superlative could’ve been interpreted a few different ways. Who is going to take the biggest leap forward from last season? My vote goes to Jackson Holliday, who appears ready to take the next step in the majors. But Cowser has the ability to go from a good player to a great one. The former first-round-pick has every tool in the bag, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him end the season with 25 home runs, 25 stolen bases, an .800 OPS and a gold glove. That’s an elite player, and Cowser has the ability to be just that. 

All-Stars - My picks: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser 

Henderson and Rutschman almost feel like locks to make the All-Star Game. They both have legitimate arguments as the best players at their respective positions, and both should be elite once again. And I’m anticipating that Cowser, my breakout star, has a huge year. As much as I wanted to add Jordan Westburg to this list, there is staunch competition at third base in the American League. José Ramírez is a shoe-in just about every year. Isaac Paredes will destroy the Crawford Boxes in Houston, and Alex Bregman will do the same to the Green Monster in Fenway. This isn’t a slight on Westy; the competition is just that good.

Best Bobblehead - My pick: Adam Jones HOF Bobblehead 

What’s not to love? A fan favorite in Jones with his iconic pie? It’s hard to get much better than this. Cowser, Henderson and Rutschman all have fantastic entries, but this one feels like a slam dunk. 

Best Facial Hair - My pick: Gunnar Henderson 

The ‘stache and the flow are an outstanding combination for Henderson. I’m not saying that they’re the reason for the shortstop’s outstanding production, but I’m not saying they’re not. There are plenty of challengers in this race, but I’m going with my gut here. 

Unsung Hero - My pick: Charlie Morton 

Before I get yelled at, I am not equating the two pitchers that I am about to talk about. But when Brandon Hyde was asked about Corbin Burnes last season, many times, the first thing that he would point to was his consistency in posting every fifth day. Burnes made 32 starts for the O’s last season; Morton has made at least 30 starts in six consecutive seasons, excluding 2020. He brings reliability, veteran leadership, and a playoff pedigree to an O’s team in need of all of those things. And there may not be a better pitcher in baseball to have in a locker room for young arms like Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Cade Povich. While the ERA may not be flashy, Morton’s value will go far beyond the field. 

Most Valuable Oriole - My pick: Gunnar Henderson 

I tried. I tried to talk myself out of it. But there’s just no picking against a player that has a bWAR over 15 in his last two seasons of baseball. Henderson was elite last season, finished top-five in MVP voting, and despite an injury to begin the year, should have incredible production once again. Henderson is the best player on the team, and someone else would need to have an unbelievable season to dethrone him. Granted, there are plenty of players on this roster that could do just that, but Gunnar is Gunnar. I’ll go with him until I’m proven wrong. 

On a personal note, it’s a privilege to be kicking off my fifth full season covering Orioles baseball. From being “MASN intern Brendan” as a 19-year-old to diving into new and exciting challenges seven years later, it’s a journey I wouldn’t trade. I’d love for you to follow along with me on “The Bird’s Nest,” as well as all of our other MASN platforms all season long. It’s going to be a fun one in Birdland, and I hope to serve you well along the way.