Simply, O's stars must propel team out of funk

There have been countless conversations about what is plaguing the Baltimore Orioles. 

Of course, a league-leading 5.37 ERA as a staff doesn’t help their 10-17 record, but those problems are easier to pinpoint. The pitching woes can be chalked up to injuries to both key pieces and depth arms, combined with slow starts of healthy pitchers. 

What is harder to explain is the struggles of the lineup. As a team, the Orioles have a .677 OPS, just 21st in the big leagues. Their 79 walks are fourth-fewest in the majors, as is their .223 batting average, leading to the sixth-worst on-base percentage. And for the cherry on top, the athletic bunch has only combined to steal 15 bags, sixth-fewest in the game. 

If you’ve watched the last few seasons of Orioles baseball, that doesn’t really make sense. 

It’s a lineup that features some of the best young players in the game, three of whom were All-Stars a season ago. They’re flanked by savvy veteran pieces, and only one key starter, Colton Cowser, is missing significant time with injury. 

So what gives?

Simply put, the O’s stars need to play like stars. And right now, the numbers aren’t there. 

Let’s start with Adley Rutschman, a back-to-back All-Star and one of the best catchers in the game. His process and approach has been great, but he hasn't been rewarded. 

According to Statcast, the young catcher is 90th percentile or better in squared-up percentage, chase rate, whiff rate and xwOBA, an expected version of wOBA, which is a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base, instead of simply considering whether a player reached base, according to MLB. But despite this, Rutschman is slashing just .209/.314/.363 with a .677 OPS entering tonight’s game against the Yankees.

Rutschman’s expected batting average, which measures the likelihood a batted ball will become a hit based on physical characteristics like exit velocity and launch angle, is all the way up at .276. Needless to say, a .276/.378/.500 slash line with an .878 OPS would look a heck of a lot better. 

There’s a similar story to be told about the visibly frustrated Gunnar Henderson, who is 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 96th percentile in hard-hit rate. It’s the lowest percentage of weak contact of his career, but it hasn’t resulted in good counting numbers. 

Our third All-Star hitter, Jordan Westburg, has been fighting through some nagging injuries over the last few weeks, according to Brandon Hyde. He’s out of the lineup again today, and has served as the designated hitter more often than not as of late. 

Even so, his .258 expected batting average would look much better than his current .217. He’s barreling baseballs at a good rate and limiting his chase. 

Admittedly, it is difficult to continue to talk about expected numbers during a stretch like this. Rutschman, Westburg and Henderson rank fourth, seventh and ninth on the team in OPS, respectively, and that isn’t any sort of recipe for success. 

Baltimore has actually found great production from the pieces expected to support those franchise cornerstones in players like Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Urías. They’re the top-three players in OPS on the ballclub, and no other hitters have that figure above the league-average .703. 

The stars of the club are expected to be in that category too. 

When things are snowballing in the wrong direction, it can seem as if every bounce is a bad one. For Rutschman, Westburg and Henderson, it sure seems that way, as their process has been far better than their results. 

But eventually, the results need to be there too. The O’s haven’t scored more than three runs in a game since April 19. Regardless of pitching woes, that isn’t going to win you many baseball games. 

The Orioles have built their team around these young stars, and rightfully so. With All-Star appearances under their belt, Rutschman, Henderson and Westburg create an excellent backbone for sustained success. 

Everyone knows that they have the talent to lead the O’s out of their current funk. Their good process just needs to turn into good results sooner rather than later.