Expected stats could indicate a positive regression, plus a Rodriguez update

WASHINGTON – Expected stats don’t show up in the box score. That makes them easy to dismiss. 

They’re not interchangeable with counting numbers, nor should they be used as a crutch for a struggling offense. 

But, in this case, it could help explain why a lineup with so much talent has struggled to score runs. It’s one thing to say, “This team is talented and they should be hitting better than they are.”

Expected numbers support that claim. 

Entering tonight’s game against the Nationals, the Orioles have the 19th-best team OPS and have scored the 18th-most runs in the game. On paper, with stars like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg, they are far better than a fringe top-20 unit. 

The offense hasn’t been led by those stars to begin the year. Instead, the catalyst has been Cedric Mullins, whose unexpected return to his 2021 form has been vital to putting crooked numbers on the board. 

Mullins has been on fire in his first 21 games, with a .290/.443/.623/1.066 slash line. Rutschman, on the other hand, hasn’t found nearly the same success, with a .200/.297/.375/.672 slash line. 

With an OPS figure nearly 400 points apart, would you believe me if I told you that their expected stats are strikingly similar? 

Expected stats attempt to express the skill shown at the moment of bat-to-ball contact, removing defense and ballpark factors from the equation, according to Statcast. They can serve as a mean to regress to, either positively or negatively. 

Mullins has benefited from some positive results in relation to his expected numbers, with a batting average 55 points higher than expected. 

Rutschman, on the other hand, has a batting average 69 points lower than expected. His slugging percentage is 143 points lower than expected, too. That slash line isn’t indicative how the quality of his at-bats. 

“Adley’s had his ups and downs so far this year,” noted skipper Brandon Hyde. “It’s still really, really early. We still have five-plus months to go. I expect him to have a good season.” 

Their star catcher is far from the only one. 

Westburg’s batting average is a whopping 72 points below his expected average of .259. Henderson, Heston Kjerstad and Ryan Mountcastle have all seen “bad luck” drop their batting averages at least 30 points. 

There is always room for improvement, and Hyde has been the first to admit that Baltimore still isn’t taking the best at-bats. But there is reason to believe that this lineup full of talent is going to turn things around. 

“Our expected numbers are a little better than the actual numbers show right now,” said Hyde. “You hope that that starts swinging in our favor a little bit. We’re a better club than what we’ve shown so far, and we have a lot of confidence in these guys, especially offensively, to start putting up numbers.”

Sometimes, it’s hard to trust that process during a stretch like this. But if you’re looking for signs of hope, the offense’s expected numbers could certainly be one. 

Hopefully Baltimore will start to see some positive regression to the mean tonight against Trevor Williams. 

Breadcrumbs from the Skipper 

Hyde started his time with the media before today’s game with an update on Grayson Rodriguez. It’s a “mild lat strain,” for the right-hander, which feels like pretty positive news given his ominous shutdown. He has “improved quite a bit this last week” and is “symptom-free right now.” Hyde added that he should start throwing in “a couple of weeks.” 

The plan is for Brandon Young to start on Friday in Detroit. Nothing new on Kyle Gibson to report yet. 

Zach Eflin is set to throw off a mound on Friday or Saturday. He’ll be throwing a side late this week.