The looming Mateo decision

Jorge Mateo played a baseball game on Sunday, his first since July 23.  

“He adds so much to our team – versatility, the speed,” Brandon Hyde told reporters down in Sarasota. “I love his energy he brings on a daily basis. We missed that last year.”

Despite the encouraging signs that Mateo is nearing a big league return, the odds that the speedster makes the Opening Day roster feel slim. Appearing in a spring training game is a big step, but many more have to be taken. 

Hyde continuously raves about Mateo’s value, noting his speed, defensive versatility and energy. The skipper’s approval is a big box to check. So while it isn’t guaranteed that Mateo will have a roster spot upon his return from injury, it seems likely. 

When that day comes, how will the Orioles make room for him on the 26-man roster?

Let’s start with the state of the club without Mateo, as the 13 position players breaking camp with the team seem to have fallen into place. 

A dynamic duo at catcher and first base: Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn. Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday and Ramón Urías should be patrolling the infield dirt. And in the outfield, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill and Cedric Mullins figure to start most days with Heston Kjerstad and Ramón Laureano providing depth.

Dylan Carlson has been making a heck of a case to make the team, but with three minor league options, he’s easier to move throughout different levels of the organization. All in all, that’s 13.  

There aren’t many battles to be seen. Carlson and Coby Mayo fit in Norfolk, and they’re the only healthy players on the 40-man not projected to make the club. 

Plus, let’s assume that Henderson is healthy enough for Opening Day; it’s better for everyone’s mental health. Even if the O’s play it safe and start Henderson on the injured list, a player like Liván Soto with a minor league option could make the team, but would likely be sent down quickly upon Henderson’s return. 

If Mateo were healthy in camp, the battle for 26 would have a lot more intrigue. 

Entering his age-30 season, Mateo brings a lot of different things to the diamond. The most obvious x-factor in the right-handers game is his speed, as Mateo is 99th percentile in the game in sprint speed, according to Statcast.

That speed is a huge help on the basepaths and the defensive side of the ball. In 2022, when Mateo was exclusively playing shortstop, he was 97th percentile in outs above average. And as the O’s have needed, the former top prospect in the Yankees system has been able to bounce around from short to second base to center field; a couple of premium positions. 

The drawback in Mateo’s game is an obvious one: the offense. At the dish, Mateo has yet to produce a season with a .700 OPS or better in an Orioles uniform. His numbers against lefties are much improved, though, to a tune of a .799 OPS against left-handed pitchers in 90 plate appearances last year. 

So, the role feels clear and necessary: a versatile defensive player that can be a valuable bench piece as a pinch runner or defender who can start games and produce well against left-handed pitching. 

That’s where things get tricky. There isn’t a position player projected to make the 26-man roster that doesn’t have a role that feels clear and necessary. 

We can take the starters out of the conversation: Rutschman, Mountcastle, Holliday, Westburg, Henderson, Cowser, Mullins and O’Neill. Sánchez and O’Hearn belong in that group too. That leaves three spots. 

Urías can play second and third base, and hit close to .300 with an .891 OPS in 45 games in July and August filling in for Jordan Westburg. He may not start every day, but he’s the go-to backup for Westburg and Holliday. Clear and obvious. 

Kjerstad can play either corner outfield spot and brings plenty of thump to the outfield or designated hitter. If the O’s are facing a righty and Mountcastle hits the bench, Kjerstad and O’Hearn could both fit in the lineup. If O’Neill needs an off day against a right-hander? You guessed it. Clear and obvious. 

Laureáno can play all three outfield positions and had an .869 OPS against lefties last season. Cedric Mullins had a .506. And the Orioles committed to Laureáno with a big league deal and a club option for 2026. Clear and obvious. 

Finally, though, we see some overlap. If Mateo is playing a serviceable center field, he joins Laureáno as a platoon outfield option. But Mateo can also play second base and shortstop and brings a different dynamic with his speed. 

You can file this discussion under a “good problem to have.” There are lots of players that bring value to the big league club and only so many spots to roster them. Hopefully, good health will force Mike Elias to make a tough decision. 

While it may not be a decision on an everyday starter, it’s an important decision nonetheless. Winning on the margins separates the good from the great.