Which spring training stories are overreactions?

Ah, the first week of spring training games. 

The perfect time to toss out wild takes about the upcoming season based on an incredibly small sample size of games that hold minimal weight. 

What takeaways are overreactions? Which far-too-early conclusions could actually come to fruition? 

On this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest” (which you can watch here), Annie Klaff and I took a deep dive into some early storylines. On the way up, we’ll see which ones hold any water. 

Heston Kjerstad will have a 20-plus home run season

Kjerstad has outstanding power. It was on full display in 2024, when the former first-round pick slugged over .600 in 56 games with Triple-A Norfolk. Flashes of Kjerstad’s sweet lefty swing give ample reason for fans to be excited, but I’ve seen some project the outfielder to have as many as 35 home runs. What’s a reasonable expectation? If Kjerstad can hit a home run every 20 at-bats, you could safely call that a good power season. In that case, he would need 400 at-bats to reach the 20 home run benchmark. Only time will tell if he can find that kind of playing time in a crowded Baltimore outfield. 

Enrique Bradfield Jr. will debut for the Orioles this year

It was a priority for Bradfield to hit the weight room this year, and it has shown thus far in spring training. The speedster mashed a home run early on in exhibition action and left many thinking: As an already elite defensive center fielder with great speed, if the bat is coming along like this, is Bradfield’s big league future more present than previously thought? The Vanderbilt product will still need to earn a promotion from Double-A Bowie before we can really have that conversation. But if the first-round pick puts up good offensive numbers at Triple-A sooner rather than later, his impressive tool kit might be hard to ignore come September. 

Tomoyuki Sugano will be the third-best starting pitcher in the O’s rotation

The hype train surrounding Sugano has left the station, hit a blazing top speed, somehow did a kick flip and circled around a few more times. The media attention is justified for an MVP with a storied career, but will it translate to major league success? Sugano certainly has the command of the strike zone and the stuff to be a solid major leaguer, but getting caught up in the hype train this early doesn’t leave much room for error. 

Rodolfo Martinez will be a big league contributor

Speaking of getting caught up in a hype train, it’s easy to be excited about Rodolfo Martinez, as Brandon Hyde noted early in Sarasota. The right-hander has a blazing fastball and some decent secondary options. But how will his command hold up and will his stuff play well enough inside the strike zone? 

The bullpen will be a top-five unit in baseball

The Orioles bullpen had a 4.22 ERA last year. A 3.70 ERA or better would’ve been in the top five in baseball. That’s certainly a lofty jump. However, the addition of Félix Bautista certainly brings a lot of optimism. A full season of Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto helps, too, with Soto posting a 1.10 ERA in his final 18 games in an Orioles uniform to end the year. And don’t forget about Andrew Kittredge, his ridiculous chase rate and the 2.80 ERA he brings from St. Louis. With this kind of talent, top five doesn’t feel out of the question.

Adley Rutschman will have the best season of his career 

Rutschman has come to camp “inspired,” according to Hyde. The All-Star seems to have arrived at Ed Smith Stadium in great shape, physically and mentally, and feels primed for a big season. It will be tough to beat his 5.4 bWAR from 2022 or his .809 OPS from 2023, but the catcher seems ready to take the next step into superstardom.

Now that you’ve been introduced to some of the topics, I hope you’ll give this week’s episode of “The Bird’s Nest” a listen to hear which takes Annie and I think are overreactions and which are not. You can tune into the podcast live on our MASN Orioles Facebook and YouTube channels every Wednesday at 11 a.m., or after the fact on your favorite podcast platform.