It’s still early November, so the Hot Stove is far from heating up. But with this past week getting us further removed from the end of the World Series, the offseason – specifically free agency – has officially begun.

For the Nationals, that means it may be time to make some significant offseason additions to the major league roster after years of waiting for their in-house prospects to reach the bigs, opening the window for them to compete again.

Mike Rizzo reportedly said at the General Manager Meetings this week in San Antonio that he thinks the Nats could make a big free agent signing this winter if it makes sense for the club, which would be a stark contrast to the organization’s philosophy over the last three offseasons.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Trade Rumors’ list of the top 50 free agents and which players its staff predicts will land in Washington …

1B PETE ALONSO
Top 50 rank: 7
Contract: Five years, $125 million

ST. LOUIS – The Orioles have had many nights this year where they have been an aggressive hitting team. And many nights where that works out well for them.

They began last night leading the American League in runs per game. But they also ranked 14^th and next to last in walk rate and they are 28^th in the majors with a walk rate of 7.0 percent. American League average is 8.2.

The O’s hitters, on average, see 3.80 pitches per plate appearance to rank 11^th-most in the league and league average is 3.88 per PA.

Yes, they rate low in walks, but high in runs scored and they rank first in the majors in slugging and sixth in MLB in team OPS where they are also third in the AL.

In an extended answer before last night’s game, manager Brandon Hyde explained why many nights the O’s are an aggressive hitting team that sometimes hunts pitches early in counts and why they like it that way.

Money remains a determining factor in free agency, with the most lucrative offers usually winning out. The game’s evolution still has its limits. Some things stay the same.

However, the Orioles are finding that they’re a more attractive destination after emerging from the rebuild.

The perception of the organization has shifted, and more dramatically than the left field wall.

It won’t make Shohei Ohtani regret the $700 million he’s getting from the Dodgers, but the selling points are beginning to multiply.

“It’s been really refreshing and it’s such an easy conversation for Brandon Hyde and I to explain why this is a good place to come play,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said at the Winter Meetings.

A week’s vacation for your trusty beat writer usually guarantees something for the Nationals: News.

Countless times over the years have I gone off the grid only to find out the Nats made some kind of major transaction in my absence. So, count me genuinely shocked when I got back to town after an extended Thanksgiving break with nary a peep coming out of South Capitol Street. Don’t get me wrong, I was glad Bobby Blanco’s holiday weekend wasn’t ruined by breaking news. But I fully expected to come back with reason to share my thoughts on multiple items of interest.

Instead … well, there really isn’t anything new on the Nationals to discuss. The Winter Meetings begin Sunday in Nashville, so there will be actual news soon enough. But not yet.

Perhaps the most interesting development of the last week from the Nats’ perspective was the flurry of moves made by other clubs. Especially when it came to free agent starting pitchers.

There have already been a number of moves in that oh-so-important department, and you better believe the Nationals were paying attention and calculating how it might impact their own pursuit of pitching help this winter.

The Cardinals signing of Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $12 million deal with an option didn’t shed much light on the Orioles’ plans for their rotation.

Those intentions already are illuminated.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias wants an upper-level starter for the rotation. Gibson is a great guy who put up some good numbers in 2023, but Elias is aiming higher.

He won’t find a higher-quality individual, but this is about upgrading the rotation.

Elias gave interviews at the general managers meetings and to MASNsports.com and 105.7 The Fan over the last few weeks, and it’s the same summary. He wants pitching. Near or at the top of the rotation and in the back end of the bullpen.

The Orioles were expected to find a new Opening Day starter in 2024, whether from outside the organization or by choosing one of their returnees.

Now, they’re assured of doing it.

Kyle Gibson reached agreement today on a one-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals that includes an option for 2025, per a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, with multiple outlets confirming.

ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported that Gibson will receive $12 million next season.

It’s an ideal landing spot for Gibson, who lives in the St. Louis area and attended the University of Missouri. He follows the Cardinals’ agreement yesterday with veteran Lance Lynn to a one-year deal plus an option for a guaranteed $11 million.

The Nationals, like pretty much every other team in the major leagues, could use some pitching help entering next season. They would love to add an experienced starter to a rotation that, while improved from a year ago, still was lacking in many ways.

Saying you’re interested in adding a veteran starter, however, is very different from actually adding a veteran starter. And the term “veteran starter” can mean a whole lot of different things.

Are we talking about a top-of-the-rotation guy, someone who could lead this staff for years to come? Are we talking about a middle-of-the-rotation guy, a solid-but-unspectacular pitcher who takes the ball every fifth day and usually gives you a chance to win? Are we talking about a back-of-the-rotation guy, a stopgap solution who may not even make it through the entire season?

We don’t know specifically yet what the Nationals have in mind. But if we look back at Mike Rizzo’s track record, we can probably get an idea about the type of pitcher he usually pursues. And the type of pitcher he usually ignores.

Since becoming general manager in 2009, Rizzo has signed nine starting pitchers as major league free agents: Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang in 2010, Edwin Jackson in 2012, Dan Haren in 2013, Max Scherzer in 2015, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez in 2019, Jon Lester in 2021 and Trevor Williams in 2023.

In one sense it was a bit unexpected that an O’s pitching staff that performed so well in the second half of the 2023 season would perform poorly in the playoffs. But they gave up 21 runs as Texas swept the Orioles in three games. They gave up 18 in the last two games as starters Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer combined to allow 11 runs in 3 1/3 innings.

Texas is a good hitting team, but Orioles pitchers seemed to be hitting their stride the longer the season went on. This time Texas got the better of them.

For the 2023 season, the O’s team ERA was 3.89 to rank fifth-best in the American League. Baltimore was just a few points behind third-place Tampa Bay's 3.86 and a bit further back of first-place Minnesota's 3.74.

In the first half of the season Orioles pitching went 54-35 (.607) with a 4.15 ERA. In the second half the staff went 47-26 (.644) with a 3.58 ERA of 3.58 that was first in the AL and third in the major leagues. The O's played at a 104-win pace after the All-Star game.

The O’s team ERA by month in 2023:

The offseason remains relatively quiet for the Orioles after their Division Series loss to the Rangers.

They signed pitcher Guachi Jules to a minor league contract, and the only information I can find is he’s 19-years-old, right-handed and assigned to the Dominican Summer League orange team. Pitcher Austin Voth, catchers Anthony Bemboom and José Godoy elected free agency.

Director of draft operations Brad Ciolek is joining the Nationals as senior director of amateur scouting. Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Bradish and Ryan O’Hearn are finalists for the Major League Baseball Players Association’s Players Choice Awards. Catcher Adley Rutschman, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and left fielder Austin Hays are Gold Glove finalists.

Reliever Nate Webb signed a two-year minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training. Pitcher Bruce Zimmermann underwent core muscle surgery in Philadelphia and should be ready for spring training.

Otherwise, hardly a peep.

On an Orioles team that produced 101 wins, their first 100-win year since 1980, along with making the postseason for the first time since 2016 and winning the division for the first time since 2014, several veteran players made key contributions.

But the Orioles have five free agents and all five could be playing somewhere else in the 2024 season. Infielder Adam Frazier played in 141 games and had an OPS of just .696, but that number was .932 with runners in scoring position. Outfielder Aaron Hicks is a free agent also but his OPS was .806 in 65 O’s games.

On the pitching side, right-hander Kyle Gibson is a free agent after leading the team with 15 wins, 33 starts and 192 innings. He tied for third in the AL in wins and was sixth in innings. He was a leader in the clubhouse and outside of it as seen by his Roberto Clemente Award nomination. The guy sure gives back – within the clubhouse and outside of it.

I see value in having Gibson back on the team to provide pitching depth. I just have concerns of a price tag of $10 million or more for such depth. Hard to put a dollar figure on what his mentorship for young pitchers and leadership for all players meant. But the club might have to look somewhere else for the same thing next year if they decide to try and get what he brings at a lower price.

Pitchers Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami are also free agents. It’s hard to see a scenario where the club pursues Flaherty, but maybe there is one out there. Fuji was given every chance to hold down a spot in high-leverage relief and spent a few nights looking like a steal. And a few looking like much less than that. I say the O’s let him walk and look for more consistency elsewhere, even if it comes in a package that doesn’t feature a 100 mph fastball.

The end was laid out early for us, the six runs scored over the first two innings in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. And yet, it felt so abrupt. Funny how that works.

A strikeout with two down in the top of the ninth inning, Rangers sprinting out of the dugout to celebrate, Orioles staying in theirs to watch and maybe learn. The hurt so evident later.

“It doesn’t really feel real right now,” said catcher Adley Rutschman.

Everyone looked like they were in a haze.

I could carry away so many images from the 2023 season, but I may be stuck with the sight of players sitting in front of their lockers after the media entered. Pretty much a full room, which is highly unusual. It actually was jarring. And not a sound made. Just blank stares.

ARLINGTON, Texas - For the Orioles there was sort of a clear theme to their postgame interviews last night after the Game 3 loss to Texas. The Rangers took an early 6-0 lead on their way to a 7-1 win and a series sweep in the American League Division Series.

Proud of a very good season and AL East championship. But also hoping and truly believing this is just the first step for this talented group of players.

They got swept three straight by Texas and the country didn't get to see the Orioles that we saw most of the year. Take the experience and learn from it. Use it as motivation to return next season and go farther.

"We have a lot of guys who have never been to the postseason before. So, this hurts and it's okay to hurt," manager Brandon Hyde said. "It's okay to have this kind of fuel to your fire in the off-season. It's going to take a while for us to get over this a little bit. But I think our guys will come in hunting and hungry in spring training. The guys coming back, especially the young guys, know what this feels like, know what it tastes like, and it sucks. If they did soak it in a little bit, they're going to be better for it down the road."

Outfielder Austin Hays expressed similar sentiments. I asked him when he has time this offseason to look back on the 2023 season, what will come to mind?

ARLINGTON, Texas – The Orioles are preparing for their first playoff game in Texas since the 2012 wild card game. They headed back to the visiting clubhouse that night and stepped into a champagne shower. A wild scene that left everyone soaked, including media that got too close.

I returned to the hotel, where I’m staying again this week, and the woman behind the desk handed me a plastic bag for my clothes. I didn’t say a word. She didn’t say a word. Just looked at me and understood.

The bubbly won’t be on ice with the Orioles down 2-0 in the Division Series. They need to win twice on the road and get back to Camden Yards for Game 5.

Cover the lockers and floor with plastic again or break out the boxes to be shipped home.

“This team’s pretty resilient,” said veteran starter Kyle Gibson. “They’re young, but they’ve got a lot of experience this year when it comes to playing in big games. None obviously as big as the one (tonight), but I think they’ll be able to draw on that experience and they’ll be all right.”

ARLINGTON, Texas – Orioles manager Brandon Hyde knew that Dean Kremer wanted the ball in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. The high stakes, the confidence he brings to the mound, the impressive starts in two clinchers last month.

Hyde approached Kremer yesterday, prior to Game 2, and updated him on the team’s plans. He was the choice. But Hyde checked back this morning amid the violent conflict with Hamas in Israel, where at least 900 people were killed over the weekend in a surprise attack. Israel declared war on Sunday.

Kremer has Israeli dual citizenship and makes yearly visits to his family. He pitched for Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic during spring training, his proudest moment in a baseball uniform.

“I saw him at breakfast this morning,” Hyde said at today’s workout at Globe Life Field. “We had a nice conversation. Gave him my support and sympathies for him and his family that's involved, and he seemed OK. He seemed like he was ready to pitch. He seemed like he felt comfortable with where his family situation was at with the whole thing.

“Obviously, he's very disturbed and there's a lot of things going on, but I didn't sense that it was going to affect (him). I think he's really looking forward to pitching tomorrow, so I didn't think it was going to affect him.”

Orioles fans had waited for their first home playoff game since the 2014 season. The rain that lingered made the wait even longer. But when they got their chance to cheer, it was loud. It was almost deafening at times amid a sea of orange Saturday afternoon at Oriole Park.

The Orioles fans put on a spectacular show. It was electric and special. 

But the O's offense had its issues - a carryover from the end of the regular season - as they lost 3-2 to Texas in the AL Division Series opener.

“It was unbelievable, it was a dream come true to run out there with orange flags being waved everywhere," outfielder Austin Hays said. "An awesome experience. It was electric, loudest ballpark I’ve ever been in. Louder than the All-Star game. It was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for sure. So I am looking forward to doing it again (today)."

Ryan Mountcastle doubled in the first Baltimore run in the fourth but the Orioles never got the lead or tied the game once Texas scored twice in the top of the fourth.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde didn’t agree that Kyle Gibson’s start tonight could influence how the playoff rotation and bullpen are constructed for the Division Series that begins Saturday at Camden Yards. He wasn’t going to put that much emphasis on it.

“I wouldn’t say it’s a big start,” Hyde said, responding to a reporter’s question. “I think we know what Kyle can do, and if he doesn’t pitch well today it’s not really going to impact anything. A lot determines the postseason roster on who we play, where we’re playing and those types of things.”

The Orioles played the Red Sox again tonight, Gibson tossed five shutout innings, and they scored three times in the eighth in a 5-2 victory before a sellout crowd of 43,150.

Gibson scattered seven hits and left after 80 pitches. Baltimore native Bruce Zimmermann, recalled earlier today, made his first appearance in the majors since July 4, didn’t allow a run through two innings and earned the win.

"He did a great job of minimizing damage," Hyde said of Gibson. "I thought it was actually a perfect workload for him heading into the playoffs."

And then there were two. Two games left in the 2023 regular season as the American League East champion Orioles (100-60) tonight host last-place Boston (77-83) in the third game of a four-game series at Oriole Park. 

The Orioles won their 100th game and clinched the division title with Thursday's 2-0 win. They lost to Boston 3-0 last night as they were held to three hits and blanked for the ninth time this season.

The Orioles offense has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six and six of the last nine games. Baltimore batters have scored eight runs over the last four games and 26 in the past nine. They have hit just three homers in those nine games.

In this series the Orioles are 7-for-55 (.127) with two doubles and one homer, scoring two runs and going 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position.

The loss Friday ended Baltimore's five-game win streak by a combined 15-3 score. Over longer stretches, the Orioles have still won nine of 13, 17 of 26 and 29 of the last 44 games.

Ineligible for the postseason and unable to recapture his All-Star form from last summer, reliever Jorge López was designated for assignment this afternoon and replaced by left-hander Bruce Zimmermann.

The Orioles recalled Zimmermann from the Norfolk Tides, who are in Las Vegas for tonight's Triple-A championship game against Oklahoma City. The Baltimore native hasn’t pitched in the majors since making his sixth relief appearance on July 4 at Yankee Stadium.

Zimmermann allowed seven earned runs and eight total with 15 hits in 11 1/3 innings with the Orioles and posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 21 starts with Norfolk over 99 2/3 innings.

The last two outings in the regular season were rough, with Zimmermann surrendering a combined 14 runs and 24 hits in 9 1/3 innings. He started Game 1 of the best-of-three series against Durham in the International League championship and allowed one run in two innings.

The Orioles haven’t announced a Sunday starter. Kyle Bradish would be working on his normal turn but could be rested, with Zimmermann a candidate to replace him.

As the Orioles get ready to play in the MLB postseason for the first time since 2016 and in the American League Division Series for the first time since 2014, experience in the playoffs is one of the few attributes this team is missing.

The only position players who have played past Game 162 are Aaron Hicks, Adam Frazier and James McCann, and Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty are the only pitchers with a combined 26 1/3 playoff innings.

The Orioles have played in many close games and many late-season high-pressure games this year. That should help prep them. But the postseason could prove to be something different and even more challenging.

“Just think that there will be a lot more adrenaline than they’ve ever felt before,” Hicks, who has played in five different postseasons, said. “They’re going to be a lot more nervous pregame and what it pretty much comes down to is who can calm down the fastest and just play baseball. That is what it comes down to. Little things win games in the postseason.”

Hicks has played in playoff games with the Yankees in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and last season, when he went 0-for-3 versus Cleveland in the ALDS.

A scout who was tracking the Orioles in Cleveland, likely in case of a possible playoff matchup, didn’t begin his impromptu report in the media dining room with observations about the hitters or pitching staff. He didn’t talk about the club’s defense that’s produced one of the lowest error totals in the majors.

He went straight to the enthusiasm and effort.

“They’re a lot of fun,” he said. “I love watching them play. I show up early to watch them get ready. Those guys come to play.”

They were allowed to stop for one day after 17 games in a row without a break. They have six more, on the last homestand of the regular season, while awaiting their opponent in the Division Series.

The wild card round is mathematically possible but would require a thunderous collapse with the magic number down to three. The earliest they can clinch is Wednesday night.