The upcoming Roki Sasaki posting could have big reverberations throughout MLB

Roki Sasaki

The pending move from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball by right-handed pitcher Roki Sasaki could create some chaos with MLB’s system to sign international amateurs.

Currently teams get limited pool amounts to sign these players, some as young as age 16. It is essentially a hard cap on the total amount a team can spend.

The issue here is that, at 23, Sasaki is too young to qualify to be signed as a “foreign professional” and he instead will be signed, per MLB rules, as an “international amateur” meaning he will be signed as a minor league free agent.

He is getting at most, the entire amount in the pool of the team he picks to sign with. In the international signing period that runs thru this Dec. 15, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the largest remaining pool amount, at $2,502,500 with the Orioles next at $2,147,300 followed by the New York Yankees at $1,487,200 and then San Francisco at $1,247,500.

Sasaki has not even been posted yet and that could lead his actual signing to occur after the beginning of a new international signing period on Jan. 15, 2025. At that point the bonus pools reset for all clubs for the Jan. 15 signing class. The top pools for several teams will have amounts of $7.555 million. The Orioles are in a group of teams that will have $6.908 million to spend.

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The latest hint that O's offense is getting tweaked and not overhauled

Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins celebrate home run

When it comes to the Orioles offense, a much, much discussed topic in Birdland since the 2024 season ended, there are a variety of opinions.

Holding the one that counts most, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias expressed his take on the Baltimore offense last Friday – the same day he announced the left-field wall was being moved in for next season.

That should help the team score more runs, but they were never lacking in homers actually, finishing second in the AL and MLB last year with 235.

Maybe the closer wall will help the O’s pursue a right-handed hitter via free agency, although Elias said that was not the reason for the move. This was more about the long-term and a continuing effort to get the home park to play more neutral with offense.

On a related matter, will the O’s offensive philosophy be changing, Elias was asked.

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Potential O's free-agent target: Lefty Blake Snell

Blake Snell

If the Orioles do not re-sign right-hander Corbin Burnes and are not in the final hunt for lefty Max Fried and find that Roki Sasaki gets posted but signs with another team, there is still another stud pitcher out there to potentially sign.

He is a two-time Cy Young Award winner with huge strikeout numbers and was the best pitcher in the majors last season starting July 9. Did we mention he does not have a qualifying offer attached to him and no draft picks would be lost for signing him?

He is lefty Blake Snell, who in, what could be his one year with San Francisco, went 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA over 20 starts and 104 innings.

A Scott Boras client, Snell had designs on a $200 million dollar or more deal last winter via free agency. But he did not get that and signed very late, during training, with the Giants for a two-year deal and $62 million. It included an opt out after this past season and he has taken that.

Snell got off to a terrible start after signing late. He had a 9.51 ERA after his first six starts and made injured list stints with a left adductor strain and left groin strain. 

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O's-Rays on the road will not be at the Trop next season

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The hurricane damage to the roof of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg will send the Tampa Bay Rays to a new home for the 2025 season.

When Hurricane Milton tore through Florida on Oct. 9, the storm's winds destroyed a large portion of Tropicana Field's fiberglass roof. 

The Rays will play their home games for next season at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, which is about 20 miles from Tropicana Field. The Yankees use Steinbrenner Field as their spring training home, and that will continue. They also have a Low-A Florida State League team that uses that facility, and that will also continue, although they are expected to use other fields and not the stadium field. There are more than 40 days when the Rays and Tampa Tarpons will both be scheduled to play at Steinbrenner Field. 

The Rays will continue to hold spring training at Charlotte Sports Park in Port Charlotte. Their first regular-season homestand will take place at Steinbrenner Field. They host Colorado on Opening Day March 27 and play the Rockies and Pittsburgh in those first six home games. Tampa Bay will play 16 of its first 22 games next season in their temporary home at Steinbrenner Field.

Next season the Orioles are scheduled to play the Rays on the road June 16-19 for four games, and they will play a three-game series versus the Rays in Tampa from July 18-20, the first series out of the All-Star break.

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Creed Willems on playing for AFL title plus dimension change to Camden Yards

Creed Willems

For some pro baseball players, a long, long season will end tonight in the Arizona Fall League championship game. O’s top 30 prospect Creed Willems is one of that group.

Spring training was a long time ago and so was his Opening Day with High-A Aberdeen April 5. It was a year where he missed several weeks mid-summer with a left hamstring injury. But he also advanced to Double-A Bowie for the season’s final 16 games. He put up a .784 OPS between the IronBirds and Baysox. He’s had a strong 19-game run for Surprise in the AFL, which hosts tonight’s championship game at 8 p.m. ET on MLB Network.

Then he will drive home to Texas and finally get some rest after a solid season for the O’s No. 22 prospect via MLBPipeline.com and No. 25 on Baseball America.

A catcher and lefty hitter, the O’s drafted Willems in round eight of the 2021 MLB Draft. He had a strong college commitment to TCU. But an over-slot $1 million dollar signing bonus sent him on his way to pro ball.

In 19 games for Surprise in the AFL, he’s hit a robust .338/.391/.500/.891 with five doubles, a triple, two homers and 11 RBIs. He played in the Fall Stars game.

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Is a possible Santander replacement already on the O's roster?

Heston Kjerstad

If the Orioles felt strongly enough about outfielder Heston Kjerstad to put him on their playoff rosters the last two Octobers – and they did do that – could he be in their starting outfield on Opening Day 2025?

If the O’s lose free agent slugger Anthony Santander to another team, could Kjerstad take his spot in right field?

One argument against or making that more challenging is the club’s stated desire to add a right-handed bat. That doesn’t mean that bat will be Santander’s replacement necessarily, should he leave, but finding a right-handed hitting corner outfielder could be done perhaps more easily than at some other defensive spots.

If Santander left and the starters in the outfield are Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Kjerstad that is three lefty hitters.

But on the other hand, when will the O’s truly know or see what they have with Kjerstad? They liked him enough to draft him No. 2 overall in 2020 out of Arkansas. We know his injury history and the bout of myocarditis which set him back early in his career, but that is in his rear-view now and again, he’s been on two playoff rosters in two chances to be on one.

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A great honor for former Orioles outfielder and Rookie of the Year Al Bumbry

Al Bumbry 1983 vs. Milwaukee Brewers

For former Oriole Al Bumbry, the 1973 American League Rookie of the Year, it was a wonderfully deserved honor.

At their 34th annual banquet last Saturday, the Middle Atlantic Scouts Association honored Bumbry, now 77, with their “A Life in Baseball” award.

The man known as “the Bee” has had quite a life in the sport indeed. A ROY award, a 14-year career (13 as an Oriole), an O’s World Series title in 1983 and named an Orioles Hall of Famer in 1987. He was also a MLB coach for three teams, including the 1995 Orioles.

His 252 stolen bases rank third most in O’s history behind only Brady Anderson and Brian Roberts. He is third on the club’s all time triples list (holding the team record once hitting three in one game), ranks eight in runs scored and 10th in games played.

A great Oriole we know now.

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Notes on the O's in Arizona Fall League, Sasaki signing odds and Select-A-Seat day

Roki Sasaki

With eight players, a manager and a strength coach from the Orioles organization, the Surprise Saguaros are chasing an Arizona Fall League championship.

The six-team AFL will see its regular season end tomorrow. On Friday, the second and third place teams meet in a playoff semi-final game. The winner will advance to meet the No. 1 seed on Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET.

After a loss yesterday, Surprise remains in first place at 16-10 (.615) by one game over Glendale and Salt River (both 16-12, .571) with two to play. These are the likely playoff teams.

Surprise is managed by Roberto Mercado, who managed the O's Double-A Bowie team this year. 

A look at the eight O’s organization players on the Surprise roster:

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O's Anthony Santander wins an AL Silver Slugger Award

Anthony Santander

After producing a 44-homer season, hitting 11 more than he ever had previously, O's outfielder Anthony Santander tonight was named an American League Silver Slugger Award winner.

A finalist the last three years, Santander is a first-time winner and joins Yankees Aaron Judge and Juan Soto as AL outfield winners.

The O's had two other Silver Slugger finalists, but Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg did not win.

Santander’s 44 homers ranked second in the AL and third in the majors. He hit .235/.308/.506/.814 with 91 runs and 102 RBIs, both career bests. He became the eighth Oriole to hit 40 or more homers and first since Mark Trumbo in 2016. And the first to drive in 100 or more since Jonathan Schoop in 2017. His 35 homers starting June 1 were third in the majors.

Santander was also the eighth switch hitter (12th occurrence) in MLB history to hit at least 40 homers in a season and one of four (five occurrences) with at least 44. He became the ninth player in O’s history with multiple 30-homer seasons. His 105 homers since the start of 2022 lead MLB switch hitters and rank sixth overall in the majors.

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Roki Sasaki will likely make a big impact for some MLB team, but at a small initial price

Roki Sasaki during the World Baseball Classic

Over the weekend, an announcement that Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will be posted by his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines to come to the MLB in 2025, put a top pitcher out there that some team will get at a real bargain price.

Because at age 23, Sasaki is too young to qualify to be signed as a “foreign professional” and he instead will be signed, per MLB rules, as an “international amateur” meaning he will be signed as a minor league free agent.

He cannot be given a massive contract per the rules. In fact, while Corbin Burnes may sign for $200 million or more, it's possible that Sasaki could actually get $2 million or less.  

If Sasaki is posted very soon, he could be signed by Dec. 15, the last day for teams to sign international amateurs during this current signing period. If that were the case, the Orioles, per the Associated Press, have the second-highest pool amount remaining right now to sign such players.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the top remaining international pool amount at $2,502,500 with the Orioles next at $2,147,300 followed by the New York Yankees at $1,487,200 and then San Francisco at $1,247,500.

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O's Colton Cowser is finalist for BBWAA AL Rookie of the Year award

cowser @ BOS

With one American League rookie award secured already, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser tonight was named a finalist for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America's American League Rookie of the Year award for 2024.

The other finalists are both Yankees: pitcher Luis Gil and catcher Austin Wells. The award winner will be announced a week from tonight, on Nov. 18.

The O's had no other finalists for the four major awards. 

Should Cowser win the BBWAA award, the Orioles will get a bonus draft pick for next summer. The Orioles got a Prospect Promotion Incentive selection this past July after Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year. And with that pick, No. 32 overall, they selected University of Virginia infielder Griff O’Ferrall.

If Cowser wins next week, this will be the first time the Orioles have had back-to-back BBWAA Rookie of the Year winners.

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O's Mike Elias talked about the club's needs during the GM meetings

Orioles GM Mike Elias

The baseball offseason is about to really heat up. Some big name free agents like Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras will meet with teams this week to get the ball rolling.

There seemed to be a glacial pace of free agency last year and maybe it all moves faster this time around. The Winter Meetings are in early December.

The general manager meetings were last week in San Antonio which gave all teams a chance to begin to lay groundwork for the next few weeks and months in talking with other teams and with player agents.

During an interview on MLB Network, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias discussed the club’s top priorities this winter.

“Well, we’ve got a really strong core returning,” said Elias. “We’ve got a young nucleus that I’d stack up there with any in baseball and that’s a good place to start. I think we have a lot of good rotation pieces and bullpen guys coming back. But we definitely are looking to augment the roster and add to the team.

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O's fans will be watching to see if the Yankees lose a big free agent fish

Juan Soto

As the MLB free agent process plays out this winter, Orioles fans will be watching closely to see what their team does. They may also be watching a player from another team closely.

What Oriole fan would not be happy to see Juan Soto leave the New York Yankees? Even if he wound up with another team in the American League East, it would badly hurt the current division champs.

The New York offense seemed like a two-man show at times in 2024 and any O’s fan would be happy to see that as a one-man show next year.

Soto had a monster year on offense, batting .288/.419/.569/.989 with 31 doubles, four triples, 41 homers and 109 RBIs. His OPS ranked third in the majors and was his best since posting a .999 for the Nats in 2021.

He is the rare player who walked (129) more than he struck out (119), posting an 18.1 walk percentage.

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Potential O's free agent target: Lefty pitcher Max Fried

Generic-Gates

If the Orioles lose right-hander Corbin Burnes via free agency, they could turn to free agency to find his replacement, or at least find someone that is in his class of pitchers.

They are not in abundance but there are a few available in this free agent class. A list that includes lefty Max Fried, who will be 31 next Opening Day.

A former first-round MLB Draft pick, Fried has never pitched for anyone save Atlanta. But if they didn’t sign him to an extension by now, there is an assumption that he will be pitching elsewhere in 2025.

MLBTradeRumors.com listed numerous clubs that could make a play for Fried, including the Orioles. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman said he will get looks from American League East clubs including the Orioles, Toronto and Boston, and that the Yankees have already “checked in” on him. So where are the Rays?

MLB Trade Rumors also listed the Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres (who originally drafted him), Cubs, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers as possible destinations for Fried. And the outlet noted that six-year deals for pitchers beginning at age 31 or later are rare, with only five in the past decade (Zach Greinke, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester).

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Potential O's free agent target: Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

It is the time of year where free agency in baseball takes center stage in the sport. Free agents can now sign with any club and it may not be long before some players do sign with new clubs.

It can be an exciting time of the year for fans – they track which players will the O's pursue, which players can they actually add and which players will they actually add?

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll present information on this blog about some free agents. Not because we feel the team should sign them or will, but because they make sense as an O’s target. None of this means they will end up here as all 30 teams have a shot at these players.

Right now, money talks and other things, I hear, walk.

If the Orioles do lose free agent Anthony Santander to another club, they could replace him with another free agent corner outfielder in righty-hitter Teoscar Hernández.

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Orioles set Birdland Member Select-A-Seat event for Nov. 16

Camden Yards Opening Day generic

Coming off a season that produced the Orioles' biggest attendance increase in nine years, the club is holding an event soon to invite more fans to purchase tickets for games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The O’s will host a Birdland Member Select-A-Seat event on Saturday, Nov. 16 from 10 a.m. to noon at the ballpark in downtown Baltimore.

The event is open to the public for fans interested in purchasing a 2025 Birdland Membership or Suite Package. Fans can choose their Oriole Park seat location and learn about the benefits of becoming a Birdland member.

Those interested can RSVP at Orioles.com/SelectASeat. The deadline to RSVP for this event is Nov. 14 at 6 p.m.

Once someone RSVPs, an O’s ticket rep will reach out to confirm their participation and provide more details regarding the event.

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For the Orioles, the window to win is open and should stay that way

Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson

Even in going 0-5 in the last two postseasons, one thing that must be of some comfort for Orioles fans moving forward is that their team should be good again. Both in 2025 and likely for years beyond that.

The Orioles' window to win, as they call it, seems wide open and vast.

The current group plus players that get added should make another run next season and maybe for several years after that.

But having a large window does not mean you will win a championship. It would seem likely to increase the odds, said Captain Obvious. But the Captain also noted that when the Dodgers won this year it was just their second title since 1988, and one came in a shortened season. That is a span of 36 years. In losing the World Series, the Yankees are now without a championship since 2009. That is 0-for-the-last-15 years even though they made 11 playoff appearances in that time.

It's hard to win it all, no matter how good your team is.

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Looking at several free agent predictions for Santander and Burnes

Anthony Santander

If we are to believe various free agent predictions, to re-sign pitcher Corbin Burnes, the Orioles are going to need to fork out around $200 million dollars, maybe more. 

Five outlets – MLBTradeRumors.com, ESPN, FanGraphs.com, and two from The Athletic – all predict Burnes gets a seven-year contract. That would take him through his age 36 season. On the low end, FanGraphs has Burnes getting $196 million and on the high end $247 by Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Several outlets ranked Burnes as the No. 2 free agent behind Juan Soto.

Soto’s projections by the way range from 12 years and $540 million to 15 years and $622 million. But you get a shuffle with that remember. 

That brings us to O's outfielder Anthony Santander for which we see a wide range of predictions. On the low end, ESPN predicts a three-year deal for $69 million. MLBTradeRumors.com goes with four years and $80 million. FanGraphs has him getting five years and $100 million while The Athletic goes with five years and $105 million. Jim Bowden has it six years and $142 million.

That is some range – from $69 to $142 million. The low-end predictions here seem to be in the Orioles wheelhouse, and I would imagine are very doable for the club. But would the Orioles go five years and $100 million for a player that ranked third in the majors with 44 homers?

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The O's pen from the left side without Danny Coulombe and a few other thoughts

Danny Coulombe

Yep, surprising news indeed. Of the five players the O’s held contract options on for the 2025 season, most would have guessed one they surely would bring back at $4 million for next year is lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. 

He’s been a reliable high-leverage reliever for two years for this team. A 2.12 ERA in 2024 and an ERA of 2.56 and WHIP of 0.951 in 94 games in two seasons for the Orioles.

But while the club picked up contract options yesterday on pitchers Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez and position player Ryan O’Hearn, they declined Coulombe’s option.

Why do that?

We didn’t get to interview anyone yet on this decision so we can only guess at the club’s thinking. Coulombe missed a big chuck of this past season, from June 11 to Sept. 20 after a left elbow procedure to remove bone chips. Now at 35, is there concern about that – also that this was his second career elbow procedure in addition to his 2022 hip surgery?

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O's pick up 2025 contract options on three players, but decline option for Danny Coulombe (updated twice)

Danny Coulombe

The Orioles have picked up 2025 contract options on first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn, lefty reliever Cionel Pérez and righty reliever Seranthony Domínguez. But in a surprise move, they declined the $4 million 2025 contract option on lefty reliever Danny Coulombe.

The club today also made the procedural move of reinstating pitchers Félix Bautista, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells and infielder Jorge Mateo from the 60-day injured list. 

Coulombe has been a dependable reliever for the club since they acquired him just ahead of Opening Day 2023 from the Twins for cash considerations. But now he officially becomes a free agent where he could re-sign with the Orioles or sign with any other club. 

Perhaps the team has injury concerns here as Coulombe was on the injured list last year from June 11-Sept. 20 as he underwent a procedure to remove bone chips from his left elbow.

But he finished the year throwing 3 2/3 scoreless over four games and pitched 0.2 innings scoreless in the playoffs.

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