Will a team be slugging their way to a World Series title over the next couple of weeks. Do home runs now play well in the playoffs?

For years a narrative was that teams that hit a lot of homers won’t in the playoffs and that type of offense won’t work.

Are the 2024 Orioles evidence of that. They finished second in the majors in homers this year but hit just one and lost two games to Kansas City scoring one run on that homer.

But other slugging teams are winning and have won. The 2023 Texas Rangers finished the 2023 regular season third in the majors in homers and OPS (.790) and runs per game at 5.44.

On their way to the World Series, they swept the Orioles three straight out-homered them 5-3 in that series. For the postseason Texas hit 30 homers in 17 games, produced a .792 OPS and averaged 5.70 runs per game. They put up big offense during the year and in the postseason too. Their postseason team ERA was a respectable 3.83 and sure you are going to need some solid pitching too.

As the Orioles didn’t win as much in the final months of the season, the focus was often on the offense which was not performing at earlier levels.

But also, during those last two months and the in the postseason the team was without a key rotation pitcher (several of course) in right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.

Up until he got scratched for a start Aug. 6 at Toronto right before game time, he was having a pretty solid season. And I will post some stats later that make it look like he is trending toward becoming a top-of-rotation starter. Maybe Rodriguez will turn out to be that next ace the organization drafted, developed and produced.

His last start this season was July 31 and then he was out with right lat/teres discomfort, a similar injury that cost him three months on the farm during 2022. The O’s were hopeful he would get back late in the year, but he didn’t make it. He is expected to be a 100 percent full go to start 2025.

Rodriguez went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA over 20 starts in 2024. In 116 2/3 innings he posted a 1.243 WHIP with a 2.8 walks per nine and 10.0 strikeouts.

It came up again during Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round playoffs when the Orioles hosted the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles, who issue some of the fewest intentional walks in the majors, had a chance to walk Bobby Witt Jr. with a base open in a key spot.

They pitched to Witt with a man on third and two outs in the top of the sixth of a 0-0 game. Witt singled to left off Corbin Burnes to score the game’s only run as Kansas City beat the Orioles 1-0 and they were halfway to a series win.

Witt batted the next day with runners on first and third and two outs in the sixth of a 1-1 tie. This time he singled in a go-ahead run again. There was a base open here – just not first-base – so that would have been a real unconventional intentional walk to load the bases, but it was there if the O’s wanted it.

The O’s were not beat in that series because they pitched to Witt, it was more about scoring one run in two games. But when you are not scoring, every run against you seems magnified.

I would have walked Witt in that spot in Game 1.

They are two of the most important players on the Orioles roster. They both have had some struggles in their short careers. We are talking here about Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman.

If one player got turned around in Gunnar, can’t Rutschman do the same in 2025?

Sure he can and after producing an OPS of .814 in 2023 to rank 15^th in the American League and .893 in 2024 to rank seventh, does anyone even remember Gunnar’s struggles?

Yep, probably not.

But early in the 2023 season there were even fans calling for Henderson to be sent back to the minor leagues. From Opening Day 2023 through May 12, Henderson had this batting line - .170/.341/.310/.651 over 33 games. Through June 8 and 54 games he had started to turn it around but still was batting just .206 although his OPS was up to .732. The rest is history.

When three teams that each won division titles and more than 100 games last year all lost in their first playoff series and went a combined 1-9 last October, the theory was that the long layoff was an issue.

This year three of the four division winners, teams that once again had five-day layoffs before opening their Division Series, won to advance to the League Championship Series.

In 2023, the 104-win Atlanta Braves and the 101-win Orioles and Dodgers went out quick in the postseason.

But this year three division winners - the Yankees, Dodgers and Guardians - are moving on. The Los Angeles Dodgers shut out San Diego in Game 4 and Game 5 to advance to face the Mets for the National League Championship. The American League series, which starts at Yankee Stadium on Monday, has New York versus Cleveland. 

So much for the theory that the five-day layoff is too much to overcome. That narrative was fun while it lasted. 

An Oriole since the December 2016 Rule 5 draft and an Oriole now for parts of eight major league seasons, the 2025 season could open with outfielder Anthony Santander playing for another major league club for the first time.

He’s finally reached the service time to become a free agent and Santander’s chance to cash in on a 44-homer season is almost at hand.

Can the Orioles re-sign him and how far should they go to do just that? No doubt the team would love to have a middle-of-the-order bat back for their 2025 lineup. Not to mention a team leader who seems universally loved within the clubhouse. The fans admire and appreciate Santander greatly as well.

His loss would be big.

As usual, it may come down to years and price. If he gets a three-year deal, say in the $75 million range, would the O’s be in the hunt at those dollars? If the years and dollars go up from there which is possible, maybe very possible, how competitive will they be? Should they be?

Late in the year, and for much of the 2024 season, O’s fans saw right-hander Corbin Burnes take the mound and pitch as the ace he was said to be.

You can earn ace status when you win a Cy Young Award, as he did with Milwaukee in 2021. From 2020 through 2023, Burnes finished sixth, first, seventh and eighth for the award. He should be in line for another finish up the board this winter too.

Over 32 O's starts, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA over 194 1/3 innings. He recorded 22 quality starts and had a 1.096 WHIP while averaging 2.2 walks per nine and 8.4 strikeouts per nine.

His K per nine has dropped every year since 2020 and yet he posted a sub 3.00 ERA in four of those five seasons. The guy is just good with a big strikeout total or not.

Look at what might be his last two O’s starts, one in the regular season at Yankee Stadium where he was held to five innings and one in the playoffs against Kansas City.

If the Orioles are to maintain a highly rated farm system, they will need to keep producing premium prospects. First there were Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman and they sort of turned it over to the likes of Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Samuel Basallo.

The O’s hope more is on the way through their 2024 MLB Draft class. A class headed by their top selection, North Carolina center fielder Vance Honeycutt, who they picked No. 22 overall in July.

On the last day to sign draft picks, which was Aug. 1, he signed a $4 million dollar bonus deal, just over the No. 22 slot amount of $3,802,200.

To say the least, Honeycutt had some adjustments to make to pro ball and had his struggles in a small 13-game sample, eight with Low-A Delmarva and five in early September with High-A Aberdeen.

He went 9-for-51, batting .176/.250/.196/.446. When I interviewed Honeycutt, 21, in early September in Aberdeen, he talked about his first few pro games.

It is a key question both in looking back at the Orioles’ 2024 season and ahead to what they hope is another good year for 2025.

What will it take to get Adley Rutschman’s bat going again?

Was he hurt when he slumped for much of the second-half?

“There is not an injury that I would speak to of any nature,” Mike Elias said during the season-ending press conference. The Orioles keep indicating that while Rutschman may have had the usual bumps and bruises, no injury was the main cause for his poor late-year stats.

Unless and until they tell us something different, that is what we have to go on here.

For Orioles young catching prospect Samuel Basallo, a 2024 season that began with him rehabbing a stress fracture in his right elbow and spending time as a DH ended with him healthy, hitting well and advancing to Triple-A for the first time in his career.

Basallo spent most of this year with Double-A Bowie over 106 games but in late August moved to Triple-A Norfolk and played his final 21 games for the Tides.

He was named by Minor League Baseball as the Top MLB Prospect in the Double-A Eastern League. He played in the Futures Game in July and is now ranked as the O’s No. 2 prospect in the team top 30 and No. 13 in the national top 100 at season’s end by both Baseball America and MLBPipepline.com.

Not bad for the youngster from the Dominican Republic, who was signed to a $1.3 million bonus in January of 2021. He flew up prospect rankings in 2023 and by the end of the year was a top 50 prospect. So he was a marked man all this year and still put up a .790 OPS between Bowie and Norfolk. He is the first Baysox to be named Top Prospect in the league by Minor League Baseball since Adley Rutschman in 2021.

This was his age 19 season by the way, and he did not turn 20 until Aug. 13.

The narrative for some is how bad the Orioles are on offense. We saw them score one run in two playoff games.

Yes, it still hurts and probably will be that way for a while.

The challenge for the organization in how to improve the offense is that over the long sample of the last two full seasons, it’s been among the highest-scoring in the sport.

Combined runs scored, 2023 and 2024:

1,748 – LA Dodgers
1,651 – Atlanta
1,632 – Arizona
1,593 – Orioles

Here is the thing about baseball: It can indeed break your heart. And in a sport that takes six months to play 162 games and can seem never-ending, the actual playoff ending can take about 24 to 48 hours.

All those games, all those ups and downs, all those emotions, then it's over in a blink.

And a whimper for the Orioles scoring just one run.

Mike Elias indicated Thursday he doesn’t want to make any knee-jerk reactions to the season and that is prudent.

The fanbase, on the other hand, or segments of such, are providing us an overwhelming amount of knee-jerk reactions. Someone must pay for this!

When it comes to the Orioles offense, some of the judgements of it show recency bias, and that is understandable. As the team struggled late in the year the offensive performance and production dropped.

Fewer runs led to fewer wins, pretty easy to understand. In scoring just one run in two games in the playoffs, the offense that came up short often late in the year did so again, this time on the biggest stage.

For the full year, some of the O’s offensive numbers looked good. Those numbers include those from the first half, when the offense ranked second in team OPS and fourth in runs per game. But in the second half the offense ranked 11^th in the major leagues in team OPS and seventh in runs per game.

The first-half OPS was .764 as the Orioles scored 4.94 runs per game. In the second half those numbers were .731 and 4.73.

From Aug. 1 on, when the Orioles went 26-27, they scored 4.4 runs per game (13^th in runs) and the OPS was .702 (15^th).

During the first day of the Orioles offseason, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde took numerous questions from reporters trying to assess what went wrong again for the Orioles with a quick out in the playoffs.

Elias spoke for over 30 minutes.

After a 91-71 regular season, and 192 wins, the second-most in the majors since the start of last year, the O’s went 0-2 this October after going 0-3 last year against Texas.

“The expectations, I think, for this season were different. We didn’t meet them,” said Elias. “We all feel that. And it has applied a different kind of pressure that is new for a lot of people in this building. The big leagues can do that to you.

“I am optimistic, bullish, I believe in this group going forward, but it’s not going to just happen automatically. We’re going to have to put in the right work this winter. Everyone is going to have to look internally. Self assess, self correct.”

The ending can be abrupt and this one was. A season of big expectations for the Orioles ended with another quick out in the playoffs. This time they are done one round sooner than last year.

It all stings in the moment and will probably stay with many in the organization and fanbase for quite a while.

Ten straight postseason losses and swept in four consecutive series counting the one-game Wild Card in 2016. Not good.

In time some of the hurt will fade and fans will look forward to another promising season. For the Orioles, the window to win should be in the early stages of a multi-year run. This should not be their last crack at it.

Last year they gave up too many runs to Texas. This year they scored too few in 1-0 and 2-1 losses to Kansas City.

The Orioles have lost yet another close postseason game to the Kansas City Royals. Swept four straight in the 2014 American League Championship Series by six total runs, they lost a pair of one-run games to K.C. in this AL Wild Card round.

They lose 2-1 today and scored just one run in the series. The Royals advance to play the No. 1 seed Yankees in a series that begins on Saturday in the Bronx. 

The Orioles are now 0-6 all-time in the playoffs versus the Royals by eight total runs.

After a 91-71 regular season and a second-place AL East finish, the season ends again in early October.

The O’s have lost 10 straight in the postseason.

Facing a win or go home, the season's over scenario, the Orioles host the Kansas City Royals today in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card round series at Oriole Park. 

There were just 10 hits yesterday as Kansas City pushed across a sixth-inning run to beat the Orioles 1-0, who now have a nine-game postseason losing streak.

Bobby Witt Jr. singled in the only run as Kansas City moved to within one win of advancing to the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees.

The Orioles, who scored 22 runs in sweeping Minnesota over the weekend and 56 runs in their last 10 regular-season games, were shut out. It was their fourth shutout over the last 20 games since Sept. 8.

O's right-hander Corbin Burnes went eight-innings plus one batter allowing five hits and one run on 84 pitches. Burnes, who has never thrown a complete game came close yesterday. His career-long outing was 8 1/3 innings on July 18, 2021 for Milwaukee at Cincinnati.

After Orioles starting pitchers covered just eight innings in the 2023 American League Division Series versus Texas, O’s 2024 ace Corbin Burnes matched that innings total in one night.

He was that good.

But even giving up one run was too many on this night as the Orioles were held to five hits, went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and were shutout 1-0 by Kansas City in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round.

The Orioles had scored 22 runs in a three-game sweep at Minnesota and 56 runs with a team OPS of .797 in their last 10 regular season games.

But the O’s have now been blanked four times since Sept. 8 and that is a 20-game span.

It was the pitcher’s duel that many expected. It was a game where one run was scored and today the visitors got it.

The Orioles' playoff losing streak, dating to 2014, reached nine today as they lost 1-0 to Kansas City on Bobby Witt Jr.’s RBI single in the top of the sixth.

O’s starter Corbin Burnes, who allowed one run over eight innings plus, was outstanding today, just as he was late in the year.

But now the Orioles have to win two straight games to advance out of this Wild Card round.

Some quick thoughts on Game 1:

In the postseason in two straight years for the first time since 1996 and 1997, the Orioles host the Kansas City Royals today in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card round.

It’s a best two-of-three series with the Orioles hosting two games and all three, if necessary.

For what it’s worth, since the 12-team MLB playoff format started with the 2022 postseason, all eight Wild Card round series have ended with 2-0 sweeps. There has yet to be a third and deciding game.

In 2022, Cleveland defeated Tampa Bay, Seattle beat Toronto, Philadelphia beat St. Louis and San Diego topped the New York Mets, all by 2-0.

There were four 2-0 sweeps last year for Minnesota over Toronto, Texas over Tampa Bay, Arizona over Milwaukee and Miami over Philadelphia.