Baseball's Hot Stove may be about to really get going

It has been a somewhat slow Hot Stove season thus far in terms of signings. But the stove may be really about to get hot.

The biggest free agent prize – outfielder Juan Soto – may be close to signing and it could happen during the Winter Meetings that begin on Monday. He has been the most talked about player this offseason and that will hold up until he signs.

Will the dam burst after that?

This is what many in the industry seem to believe. Once Soto is off the market, teams may pivot to outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández and really kick off the pursuit of position players. Big dollar teams that miss out on Soto, could move back to the high-end starting pitcher market chasing the likes of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

Where does this leave the Orioles?

With the same needs they have had since the opening of free agency – top starting pitching and a right-handed hitter, likely an outfielder.

Per usual, the Orioles just do not let their thinking leak out in the media. Credit to them for keeping their business in house. That can frustrate media and fans who like rumors and see that as fueling the hot stove.

But the O’s job is to make their team better and not make our conversations more lively and interesting.

A few pitchers have signed for significant dollars thus far:

* Blake Snell to the Dodgers for five years and $182 million.

* Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels for three years and $63.7 million.

* Frankie Montas to the Mets for two years at $34 million.

* Matt Boyd to the Cubs for two years and $29 million.

The top relief contract thus far went to Aroldis Chapman who went to the Red Sox for one year and $10.75 million. The Sox will be his fifth team since 2022 and at that price, I pass on a pitcher who still throws hard and can be effective but is going to be 37 by next Opening Day and who walked 5.7 per nine last year.

The Sox seem anxious to throw money around, they are practically telling everyone we want to spend. They want Soto, they want Fried, they want them all. We’ll see how that works out.

Boston has been to the playoffs once in six years, finishing in last place three times in that span. Can they spend their way back to the top of the AL East? They seem to think so.

With Snell now signed, of course the Orioles would love a reunion with Corbin Burnes. Burnes had a good experience with the Orioles and if they make the best offer, they might actually have a real chance to get him back. If they don’t, they could be looking at Fried.

Fried’s ERA+ of 151 since the 2020 season is first in the majors among pitchers with 500 innings or more. He is a two-time All-Star, two-time top five Cy Young finisher, three-time Gold Glove winner and shows high groundball and low homer rates while pitching with solid walk rates.

In 2024 over 29 starts for Atlanta, Fried went 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA over 174 1/3 innings. He recorded a 1.164 WHIP while allowing 0.7 homers and 2.9 walks per nine innings. He posted a strikeout rate of 8.6.

I wrote about him as a possible O's target here. 

Hot Stove radio show tonight: I will be joining O's broadcaster Brett Hollander tonight and filling in for Geoff Arnold on the Orioles "Hot Stove Radio show" on WBAL Radio from 7 to 8 p.m. This is the first of many offseason Hot Stove shows airing Thursdays on WBAL Radio. Among the guests tonight will be O's manager Brandon Hyde.

Fans can listen through this link.