Corbin Burnes is an example that strikeouts are trending down in MLB

It is a slow trend down in baseball. It is pitcher strikeout rates per every nine innings. In the shortened 2020 season, pitchers in MLB averaged 9.1 strikeout per every nine innings. The year after the mark was 8.9. Last season it was down to 8.6 per nine.

It is nothing too significant at this point and there is still plenty of swing and miss in the game. But at some point, contact skills and players that don’t strike out that much may be valued again.

Ironically it was a pitcher somewhat known for strikeouts that brought this trend to my attention. It was right-hander Corbin Burnes during an interview this year in May. Burnes began the 2024 season pitching Opening Day for the Orioles and he fanned 11 Los Angeles Angels in a dominant outing. But over his next eight starts he never fanned more than six in a game. On May 13 at home versus Toronto, Burnes fanned just two batters. 

It was a day or two after that start that I asked Burnes about the Toronto hitters’ approach that night and I asked him where all his strikeouts had gone?

“We are seeing a different approach against me,” Burnes said during that interview. “It was easy to see what that Blue Jays lineup approach was - if they got to two strikes, they were doing all that they can to put the ball in play. I think that is kind of how the game is changing. You are seeing lineups change to more of a contact approach. Things tend to happen more when the ball is put in play.

“That is one thing you are seeing. Also, pitch-mix-wise I am a little bit different. Pitch sequencing is one of the things I’ve been looking into recently to try and combat this approach when they get to two strikes and just kind of throw the bat at it to put the ball in play.”

Back in the day kids were taught to choke up and put the ball in play with two strikes. The game is not exactly going back to those days as hitters still try to get off a big swing even with a two-strike count.

“I will not say I don’t like it,” Burnes said in the May interview. “Lot of groundball outs, and when you have this defense behind you, those outs are made. Can’t really complain about it. But definitely would like to see a few more strikeouts, but it is not something I am going to chase.”

Every year since 2020, Burnes has finished in the top eight for the Cy Young Award, winning it in the National League in 2021.

But each year since 2020, his strikeouts per nine innings have decreased.

2020: 13.3

2021: 12.6

2022: 10.8

2023: 9.3

2024: 8.4

Burnes had a K percentage of 36.7 in 2020 and 35.6 the next year and that number was down to 23.1 in 2024. The league average was 22.7.

And this is about more than one pitcher, but Burnes sure illustrates how one pitcher is seeing this trend. He continues to thrive, pitching to an ERA of 2.92 this year while finishing fifth for the AL Cy Young Award, big strikeout numbers or not. He's that good.

We're a long way in baseball from a day when even the biggest sluggers limited strikeouts. But those days may not be gone forever.