A week of key dates brings us later today to players accepting or declining the $21.05 million qualifying offer. Decisions must be made by 4 p.m.

This one is easy to predict.

Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander are expected to decline it and dive into free agency. They have rich long-term deals waiting for them. They aren’t settling for anything less.

Burnes is the top starter on the market and the Orioles are keeping the door open for a return. Santander is coming off a 44-homer season and will attract plenty of suitors. His value has never been higher.

The Orioles will receive a draft pick if Burnes and Santander sign with other clubs. That’s why you make the qualifying offer, which only applied to players who haven’t received one in the past and spent the entire season with the team. No deadline additions.

When Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder reached out to Orioles pitching coach Drew French to talk about righty Zach Eflin it was a bit unusual. It happened not long after the July 26 deal that made Eflin an Oriole and sent three minor leaguers to the Rays.

Snyder was showing great friendship and support for a pitcher he had a wonderful relationship with in Tampa. Even though he would be helping a division rival, this was a case where a couple of personal relationships seemed to top wins and losses.

One was Snyder’s close relationship with Eflin. The other was his emerging friendship with French. That one all started in Florida during spring training in a unique way.

“I actually got connected with Kyle this spring,” French explained during the O's last homestand. “I was staying in Sarasota at the previous home of the Rays trainer Joe Benge (formerly with the Orioles). We talked about Kyle a lot, someone I respected from afar. So, later we got connected and talked several times during spring training.

“When the trade did go down, he did reach out and said I’ve got some info. It is really about respect for the transition of the player that we know what his routine looks like, what his side days are. Just kind of the in-between stuff. In the same division, there is usually not a ton of company secrets thrown out between us. But it was some general stuff that helped us know the player better. Kyle really helped with that.”

SARASOTA, Fla. – Here is yet another reason to praise the Orioles organization: making more good decisions on their farm.

Last year, they took a minor league pitcher that had thrown a combined 44 2/3 innings out of the bullpen in the 2021 and 2022 minor league seasons and made him a starter.

They saw something and the move worked. Right-hander Alex Pham, mostly a reliever in college and exclusively a reliever in his first two pro seasons, had a huge year as a starter pitching at High-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie.

He went 3-5 with an ERA of 2.57. Over 112 innings he allowed 72 hits, posting a .182 average against and 1.02 WHIP. He recorded a 3.4 walk rate and 10.5 K per nine rate. He had 13.3 K per nine rate with Aberdeen, where he went 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in May and was the South Atlantic League Pitcher of the Month.

Yep, this starting thing was indeed working out.

If you look at the Roster Resource section on FanGraphs.com, they list their current projected pitching rotations for each club. It might surprise some to note that the Tampa Bay Rays, a team known for producing good pitchers and solid pitching development, does not have one homegrown pitcher listed among its top five.

Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale and Shane Baz were added via trades, Zach Eflin in free agency and Zack Littell was added on waivers.

Of the O’s listed five, just John Means and Grayson Rodriguez were drafted by the Orioles. Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin – listed fifth right now – all came via trades.

So, for the top two AL East teams from last year, 80 percent of their current rotations came from outside their own organization.

The bigger message is get good pitching wherever and whenever you can. At the end of the year, they count only wins, not wins generated mostly by homegrown talent.

Recently I wrote here about some players that were surprises this year for the Orioles as they made their way to an AL East title. On the farm there always seem to be a few surprises, if for no reason other than we have more teams and players to choose from.

This year was no different, but I think two of the biggest surprises on the farm were two players that both ended their years with Double-A Bowie in outfielder Billy Cook and right-handed pitcher Alex Pham.

Both ended the year in the O’s top 30 via MLBPipeline.com with Cook at No. 27 and Pham at No. 29. Cook is currently unranked by Baseball America, but Pham made it all the way to No. 17 via BA.

They were players on the rise during the 2023 season and both are hidden gems no more. They’ve found their way onto the radar and will be watched closely in 2024.

Both were college draft selections in the 2021 MLB Draft – Cook out of Pepperdine in round 10 and Pham in round 19 out of San Francisco. So, neither will need to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until the Rule 5 draft in 2024.

CHICAGO – The Orioles minor league rosters are in for some big changes very soon. According to a club source, eight players are about to be promoted and they include five players currently ranked among the O’s top 30 prospects list via Baseball America.

Moving from Double-A Bowie to Triple-A Norfolk are infielder César Prieto, right-handed pitcher Justin Armbruester and righty reliever Wandisson Charles.

Moving from High-A Aberdeen to Bowie are pitchers Alex Pham, Keagan Gillies and Jean Pinto and outfielder Jud Fabian.

Moving from Low Single-A Delmarva to Aberdeen is right-handed pitcher Juan Nunez.

Fabian is currently ranked as the Orioles’ No. 13 prospect by Baseball America and No. 15 via MLBPipeline.com. In 55 games with the IronBirds, he is batting .281/.392/.490/.882 with 13 doubles, nine homers, 35 runs, 19 steals and 43 RBIs. He was the No. 67 overall draft pick in 2022 out of the University of Florida.