Wondering about Dodgers, Santander and Pérez

Cionel-perez-spring-training-live-AB-3

Questions and curiosities. The offseason is full of them.

Some recent examples include how we’ve pondered whether Zach Eflin or Grayson Rodriguez would be the No. 1 starter as the roster’s currently set, who’s the No. 5 starter, the chances that Jackson Holliday platoons, how much Heston Kjerstad plays, whether the Orioles trade for Luis Castillo, if the Orioles are done making moves for position players, whether Nick Gordon will make the team, whether Albert Suárez should start or relieve, who’s a dark horse candidate, how Tomoyuki Sugano will adapt, which starters go to the bullpen, whether the Orioles can count on Jorge Mateo on Opening Day, whether the Orioles would trade Ryan Mountcastle, and how good the Orioles’ bullpen is.

Let’s do some quick hits as we plow through another week of the offseason. It’s more of a light dusting compared to the heavier accumulations.

Are the Dodgers good for the Orioles?

Probably not if there’s a rematch of the 1966 World Series, but Juan Soto seems like the only huge free agent fish who wiggled away from this juggernaut. The rich get obscenely richer.

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With Mullins set in center, what do the corner OF spots look like for O's?

Heston Kjerstad

With Cedric Mullins set as the O’s center fielder, what do the outfield corners look like? Tyler O’Neill, who signed a free agent deal for three years for $49.5 million that included an opt out after one season, is expected to get many of the starts in right field. Young Heston Kjerstad is also part of that right-field mix no doubt with Colton Cowser, who finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, mostly in left field.

O’Neill, who turns 30 on June 22, last year for Boston made 56 starts in left field, 34 in right field and 17 as the DH. He was named the Red Sox Comeback Player of the Year by the Baseball Writers' Association of America's Boston chapter. O’Neill missed 27 games due to three stints on the injured list.

But over 113 games and 473 plate appearances with Boston, he hit .241/.336/.511/.847 with a 132 OPS+ that was just below Anthony Santander’s 134. Santander is still available in free agency.

O’Neill was a prolific batter versus lefty pitching last season, hitting .313/.430/.750/1.180 with a wRC+ of 215 off southpaws. Against right-handers he batted .209/.290/.403/.693 for a wRC+ of 91. Now he can take aim at the closer fences in left-field and left-center at Oriole Park. 

A Gold Glover in the outfield in 2020 and 2021, O’Neill has made 36 career starts in center field and could spell Mullins there at times as Mullins hit just .196 with a .506 OPS in 2024 versus left-handed pitching.

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This, that and the other

Jorge Mateo

Tyler O’Neill’s status as the first player signed to a multi-year contract since Mike Elias’ hiring as executive vice president/general manager in November 2018 comes with a caveat attached to it.

O’Neill can opt out of his three-year, $49.5 million deal after the 2025 season. He can dive back into free agency and search for a more lucrative offer or fulfill the entirety of his agreement.

The Orioles can get a year from O’Neill as the replacement for free agent Anthony Santander, with power, on-base ability and upgraded defensive at multiple outfield positions with his two Gold Gloves in St. Louis, and pivot again in the offseason – whether staying in-house or working the free agent and trade markets. They can plan on having him for three seasons to go with Colton Cowser and eventually 2023 first-round pick Enrique Bradfield Jr.

If O’Neill decides to opt out, the Orioles are allowed to make him a qualifying offer and, if declined, receive a compensatory draft pick. They could get something back beyond his production for one season.

Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander were among the dozen players to decline the $21.05 million. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks for six years and $210 million, giving the Orioles the 30th-overall selection in the draft. They already owned the 19th and will net another if Santander signs for north of $50 million.

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Never too soon to look at O's batting orders and lineups

Gunnar Henderson

The Orioles will play a game, a spring training game, for the first time on February 22nd at home versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. How their lineup will look that day is not important. Can’t read anything into a spring training lineup, especially not the first one of spring.

But how might that lineup look on Opening Day, March 27th at 3:07 p.m. at Rogers Centre against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Rather than wait for that big day, we could make a guess today. Doesn’t cost anything and no matter what we project, no one will get hurt. Unless it’s a player’s feelings that we leave out. But that’s rather unlikely too, so let’s proceed.

First the Blue Jays project to have five righties in their rotation possibly starting with Kevin Gausman or Jose Berrios. So we know it’s likely going to be a right-hander versus the Orioles that day and we’ll go with that.

Everyone’s lineup might be different for different reasons. Here is mine as of Jan. 13.

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Thoughts on ways Orioles can improve in 2025

Adley Rutschman

As the offseason rolls merrily along, except of course for the segment of the fan base that feels flattened by it, win projections and championship odds already have surfaced on the internet.

They seemed premature in December and remain so in the first week of January, but they always can be adjusted later.

The Orioles could or could not be done with their search for starting pitching and they must address the bullpen, but they’re graded now based on losing their ace starter and 44-homer bat. The dip is minimized by the additions of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, along with backup catcher Gary Sánchez, at a combined $71 million.

Expectations could change again after the Orioles announced Friday evening that they signed veteran starter Charlie Morton to a $15 million deal.

The consensus seems to be that the Orioles remain a playoff team, which back in the day would have been celebrated with tremendous enthusiasm. They haven’t qualified for the postseason in three consecutive years since 1969-71, reaching the World Series each time. Perceptions of a dynasty are ruined by losses in ’69 and ’71. Perceptions of the current club are marred by back-to-back sweeps.

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Beginning a new year with a list of resolutions

Brandon Hyde

The year 2025 is upon us. Break out the resolutions and other promises that will be broken like a hockey player’s front teeth.

I usually avoid them but figured I’d come up with a list and invite everyone here to share their own. They can be personal and professional. They can be Orioles related. They can come back to bite you now that they’re documented.

Don’t be ashamed if the elliptical that you kept talking about before Christmas is used to dry your cotton laundry. Or if a vow to avoid having your favorite team dictate your mood is shattered 10 minutes after pitchers and catchers report. These things happen. You’re in a safe space here.

Here we go. I typed softly in case you’re hungover.

No more whining about travel.

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Leftovers for breakfast

Dominican Academy opening

The 11-month mark arrived Monday since the opening ceremony of the Orioles’ new, state-of-the-art training academy in Guerra, Dominican Republic.

The 22.5-acre complex is home to the organization’s regional facility for Caribbean, Central and South American player development operations, with three full fields, a sports turf agility field, batting and pitching tunnels, dormitories, administrative buildings, entertainment spaces, a dining room with nutritious meals, and three classrooms with a computer lab. The expectation was that more than 100 players, coaches and staff would be housed there.

“It’s an incredibly impressive facility,” manager Brandon Hyde said that day. “I just think it’s so well done and it means a ton for the organization because this is part of the lifeblood of our team and lifeblood of our organization is signing players and giving them a great facility to train in. And this is the step one for a lot of our young players that we signed that are going to be Baltimore Orioles, and to have them be in this sort of facility is incredible.

“Everything is done extremely well, just from the fields to the artificial surface for the agility field, to what the clubhouse and the classrooms look like. Just a really, really well designed facility, and looking forward to our young players using it. I didn’t really know what to expect. I’ve been to a couple of facilities down here before. Every one is a little bit different, but this is like modern and this is a really, really, new-age type of facility.”

More young players will be arriving with the international signing period beginning on Jan. 15.

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O's Koby Perez on Samuel Basallo and more (O's add pitcher from Japan)

Samuel Basallo

With 13 international players ranked among the O’s top 30 prospects by MLBPipeline.com, the club’s international program keeps humming along.

It’s big for the Orioles to have both quantity and quality coming from the international prospects. Not only are players like Samuel Basallo getting close now to the majors, but the high number of ranked international prospects will help the O’s mainly a highly-ranked and fertile farm system.

Basallo remains the shining star, having played his age 19 season in 2024. He ends the year ranked as the No. 13 top 100 prospect by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.

Over 127 games between Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) and Triple-A Norfolk, Basallo who turned 20 on Aug. 13, hit .278/.341/.449/.790 with 25 doubles, 19 homers and 65 RBIs.

Basallo produced an .820 OPS with Bowie with 16 homers, 55 RBIs. He hit just .222 with the Tides but batted .297 with an .810 OPS his last 11 games, after going 7-for-44 his first 10 games.

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O'Neill on Orioles: "They’ve got a really good thing going on right now"

Tyler O'Neill

Tyler O’Neill knows his splits and how he’s joining the Orioles in large part because they wanted a right-handed bat to improve their production against lefties. However, he didn’t sign a contract to sit.

The Orioles are prepared to pay O’Neill $49.5 million over three seasons, with an opt-out clause after 2025. He’s basically the replacement for free agent right fielder Anthony Santander, and he’s geared toward exceeding the 113 appearances with the Red Sox this summer.

He’s coming to play.

“Obviously, they want me to be part of the everyday lineup, and I’m looking forward to being able to contribute in that regard,” O’Neill said earlier today in his introductory video call with local media.

“I understand last year I had some splits that were a little more drastic than in years before, but honestly, part of that was playing at Fenway Park and just being in that home ballpark and really trying to tailor my approach to the left field wall. They wanted me to open up to the pull side and kind of had to play up front a little bit more, which left me less room for error. And it worked out. It worked out well, for sure, but it definitely caused some streakiness, so to be able to play in a ballpark that’s symmetrical like Camden Yards, I’m really excited to be able to exploit right-center more and use the whole field and see what I can post on top of that.”

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Sorting through more Orioles spring training storylines

akin reacts black

The countdown to spring training intensifies after the Winter Meetings and the start of a new year. The important dates leading up to it are fading.

Arbitration figures are exchanged on Jan. 9 for eligible players who haven’t signed. The international signing period begins Jan. 15. Those are the big ones.

Perhaps the Orioles will introduce a new player or two before camp opens in Sarasota.

I’ve already provided a sampling of spring storylines: how Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo fit on the roster, how Adley Rutschman will hit, anything Félix Bautista, rehab progress made by Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez’s health after being left off the Wild Card roster, anything Jackson Holliday, what a full season of Zach Eflin could do, whether Daz Cameron can make the club as an extra outfielder, whether Dean Kremer can take the next step, reaction to the left field wall, the bullpen, whether Cade Povich makes the club, Emmanuel Rivera’s bid to break camp with the team, improvements with Trevor Rogers, and any noticeable changes under the new hitting coaches.

Here are a few more.

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Because You Asked - Here We Go Again

Corbin Burnes

The weekend always seems like an opportune time to dump the contents of the mailbag, and chances to do it are running out in 2024.

You ask and I answer, which leads us to the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

I thought about editing, but it appealed to me as much as coal in my stocking or trying to hit Gerrit Cole.

Also, my mailbag comes down your chimney with a bag of presents and your mailbag sweeps it.

Do you think Tyler O'Neill will avoid the injured list for the entire season?
O’Neill has landed on it 14 times in his career, including three in 2024. But I’d have trouble predicting a full season out of any player. You never know when an injury is gonna strike. There’s luck involved, too. “I think the injuries that he has had have been minor,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told the media at the Winter Meetings. “They’re things that have blown over. We’re hoping we can keep him healthy. We’ll take good care of him. We’ll have DH at-bats available for him. … He’s a young guy and I think he’s had bad luck in some regards with some injuries.”

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O'Neill and Sánchez deals official (plus other notes)

Tyler O'Neill

The Orioles announced the signings in free agency of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez earlier today. Physicals were passed and contracts inked.

O’Neill received a three-year deal for $49.5 million and Sánchez received a one-year deal for $8 million.

The 40-man roster has 39 players, leaving room if the Orioles want to make a selection in Wednesday afternoon’s Rule 5 draft that wraps up the Winter Meetings.

“Pretty clearly two profiles we had been seeking going into the offseason,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said during his media scrum at the Hilton Anatole Hotel. “They both bring tremendous amounts of right-handed power. They’re good against both sides, righty and lefty pitching, but extremely productive, Tyler in particular, against left-handed pitching. That's something that you look at the composition of the rest of our team was a relative weakness. We have a lot of left-handed hitters, particularly in the outfield.”

O’Neill replaces Anthony Santander, who remains on the free-agent market and reportedly is attracting interest from other teams in the division.

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Remaining items on Orioles' shopping list and Mateo's expanded role

Jorge Mateo

The Orioles haven’t announced their agreements with outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez, whose contracts become official after they pass their physicals. Two important items will crossed off the shopping list, with O’Neill replacing Anthony Santander in right and Sánchez replacing James McCann as the backup.

The position side appears to be completed unless there’s some late tinkering. It’s the pitching that remains a priority.

The rotation and bullpen are areas that lead to discussions with rival executives and agents. The Winter Meetings in Dallas are the latest setting for them.

“The whole offseason, what we’re trying to do is just improve our team anyway we can,” said assistant general manager Eve Rosenbaum. “We set out wanting to improve our offense, particularly with guys who can mash against left-handed pitchers, so that’s going to be a continued priority for us, bringing in some righty bats. And pitching I think is the other big area. We’ve been talking to a ton of pitchers so far this offseason — some who have signed already with other teams, some who haven’t signed yet. Looking at both starters and relievers.

“We expect Félix (Bautista) to be back, but he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, of course, so we want to make sure he has plenty of support in that bullpen if he can’t pitch as frequently as maybe we’re used to him pitching in the past. So definitely looking to do whatever we can to shore that up, whether that’s with internal options or externally. And then starting. I think it’s no secret that we have some guys who are down with Tommy John. Corbin Burnes has left. So we’re looking for at least one solid starter to bring in, because you can never have too much pitching, especially in this day and age.”

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This, that and the other

Coby Mayo

Last year’s Winter Meetings appeared to confirm the handful of Orioles prospects deemed untouchable, at least to some rival executives - a group that included Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad.

This week could present an opportunity for media in Dallas to glean whether some statuses have changed.

Holliday projects as the starting second baseman after a rough introduction to the majors, where he batted .189/.255/.311 with 69 strikeouts in 60 games. He’s made an adjustment at the plate, removing the leg lift as a timing mechanism and going with a toe tap, and the Orioles maintain a high opinion of a player drafted one/one and who ranked as the top prospect in baseball.

Jordan Westburg, Jorge Mateo and Ramón Urías also can play second, giving manager Brandon Hyde infield flexibility. But the ideal setup has Holliday at second, Westburg at third and Urías and Mateo working in utility roles. Mateo also could be an extra right-handed hitting outfielder.

Kjerstad could find many more opportunities bouncing between the outfield and designated hitter. The Orioles signed Tyler O’Neill to replace Anthony Santander, but Kjerstad offers the contrast of a left-handed bat.

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Some notes and stats on soon-to-be Oriole Tyler O'Neill (Sanchez too)

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The Orioles have agreed to a contract with a right-handed hitter with thump, filling one key need on their offseason wish list. They came to terms with free agent outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal for $49.5 million. The deal has yet to be officially announced.

O’Neill is the first free agent the O’s acquired with a multi-year deal since Mike Elias took over as general manager. He can opt out after the 2025 season, which would essentially make this a one-year deal.

O’Neill, who turns 30 on June 22, last year for Boston made 56 starts in left field, 34 in right field and 17 as the DH. His addition seems to make it quite unlikely now that the O’s will re-sign free agent outfielder Anthony Santander.

O'Neill was named the Red Sox Comeback Player of the Year by the Baseball Writers' Association of America's Boston chapter. O’Neill missed 27 games due to three stints on the injured list. He went to the seven-day concussion IL on April 18 and also went on the IL May 29 with right knee inflammation and Aug. 7 with a lower leg infection.

Over 113 games and 473 plate appearances with Boston, he hit .241/.336/.511/.847 with a 132 OPS+ that was just below Santander’s 134.

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Source: Orioles reach agreement with O'Neill on three-year contract (and Sánchez for one year)

Tyler O'Neill

The Orioles found their right-handed hitting outfielder.

The club is signing Tyler O’Neill to a three-year contract worth $49.5 million, according to a source. The deal, which becomes official after he passes a physical, includes an opt-out after 2025.

This is the first multi-year free-agent contract since Mike Elias joined the front office, though it could become a one-year deal with the opt-out. The Orioles hired Elias as executive vice president/general manager in November 2018.

O’Neill’s deal also signals that the club is moving on from Anthony Santander, a free agent who hit 44 home runs this summer.

Power isn’t sacrificed with O’Neill in the fold. He hit 33 homers in 113 games with the Red Sox and posted a .336 on-base percentage in 473 plate appearances. Santander owns a career .307 OBP.

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Burnes motors through Red Sox lineup and Orioles' offense is clutch in 7-1 win (updated)

burnes pitching gray

BOSTON – They came out of the dugout one by one again today, walking up a red carpet and making a hard right along the third base line. The march of the Orioles. Introduced on another Opening Day, their third if we aren’t counting the first spring training game.

Corbin Burnes started that afternoon and again on March 28 at Camden Yards. He stood on the mound at Fenway Park, the only opportunity in his seven-year major league career, with the emotions from Red Sox fans overflowing after the club’s return from a three-city West Coast trip, the 2004 team reunion and tribute to late knuckleballer Tim Wakefield and wife Stacy.

Burnes retired two batters in the first inning, threw a curveball to Tyler O’Neill, heard the contact and walked onto the grass in front of that same mound. He wouldn’t pitch with an early lead, but it was coming.

One run wouldn’t be insurmountable for an Orioles offense that’s been noticeably small in the clutch.

O’Neill belted his league-leading sixth homer, but Burnes allowed only two hits and none after the first, and Colton Cowser drove in four runs in a 7-1 victory before an announced sellout crowd of 36,093.

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