As the offseason rolls merrily along, except of course for the segment of the fan base that feels flattened by it, win projections and championship odds already have surfaced on the internet.

They seemed premature in December and remain so in the first week of January, but they always can be adjusted later.

The Orioles could or could not be done with their search for starting pitching and they must address the bullpen, but they’re graded now based on losing their ace starter and 44-homer bat. The dip is minimized by the additions of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, along with backup catcher Gary Sánchez, at a combined $71 million.

Expectations could change again after the Orioles announced Friday evening that they signed veteran starter Charlie Morton to a $15 million deal.

The consensus seems to be that the Orioles remain a playoff team, which back in the day would have been celebrated with tremendous enthusiasm. They haven’t qualified for the postseason in three consecutive years since 1969-71, reaching the World Series each time. Perceptions of a dynasty are ruined by losses in ’69 and ’71. Perceptions of the current club are marred by back-to-back sweeps.

Today a look at a few more notes and items we can expect to see during the 2025 season.

The return of this pitcher: The No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez should return as a full-time member of the Baltimore rotation.

In 2024, he made what turned out to be his last start on July 31. He was scheduled to pitch Aug. 6 in the series opener at Rogers Centre in Toronto but was scratched just minutes before first pitch with what was later described as right lat/teres discomfort.

Getting this now 25-year-old right-hander back is a big lift for the rotation, which loses ace righty Corbin Burnes. Rodriguez went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA over 20 starts and the Orioles went 14-6 in those games.

He gave up two earned runs or less 14 times. And if you could take away his two worst starts last year, where he allowed seven runs each time, he would have finished the season with an ERA of 3.02.

The Orioles haven’t found their starting pitcher in Dallas and they aren’t done with the bullpen. The work continues today and through the offseason. The last day of the Winter Meetings isn’t a deadline to finish the roster.

Is there anything else to do with position players?

The club appears set barring a trade, though it’s Dec. 10 and a lot can happen. The 13 non-pitchers right now are easy to identify.

We know the catchers - Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez. We know that Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Heston Kjerstad and Tyler O’Neill are expected to be the four outfielders. And we know that it leaves room for seven infielders, which on paper read as Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo.

Top prospect Coby Mayo and Emmanuel Rivera, who signed a one-year contract for $1 million and is out of minor league options, appear to be on the outside. To get either one of them in the picture might require dealing an infielder.

At his offseason home in Florida last Thursday night, while it was very cold in Baltimore, O’s manager Brandon Hyde joined us from a much warmer climate. When Brett Hollander and I hosted the season debut edition of the "Hot Stove" radio show on WBAL Radio, Hyde was a guest.

Not to rub it in, but when asked how the weather was in his neighborhood at that time, he told us he was in shorts and getting ready to cookout.

Yeah, that could work.

On matters relating to his baseball team, Hyde provided a few other thoughts.

Please note this interview took place before the O's weekend agreements with Tyler O'Neill and Gary Sanchez. And he cannot publicly talk about that pair anyway until the O's make those signings official. That seems likely to come this week during the Winters Meetings in Dallas. 

The Orioles were focused a year ago on finding a new closer and they reached agreement with veteran Craig Kimbrel on the final day of the Winter Meetings, an unusually aggressive act for a team that usually returned home with a minor league signing and Rule 5 pick.

Their No. 1 starter came later, with executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias trading for Corbin Burnes on Feb. 1. Also a bold move that signaled further changes to how the Orioles conducted business beyond the rebuild.

Otherwise, the Orioles addressed depth and created competition at multiple positions and found some insurance with second basemen Kolten Wong, who didn’t make the club, and Tony Kemp, who did for a brief period.

The current offseason doesn’t find the Orioles shopping in the same closing market. They expect Félix Bautista to be full-go in camp and back in his usual role on Opening Day, though he might be handled with more care at the beginning because he hasn’t pitched since August 2023.

“We are realistic about the fact he’s coming off surgery,” Elias said in last month’s video call. “We don’t want to overly pressurize him. We are going to want to treat him with a little extra care given the fact that he didn’t pitch (this) year and he’s coming off surgery. So, way too soon to announce roles and things like that. And I think it’s just going to be a matter of how sharp he is. But we want to give him the margin for an error that a guy coming off surgery deserves.

I’m about 2 ½ weeks past my open-heart surgery and progress is slow but steady.

I just typed that sentence without having to lie down.

The heavier lifting comes as we move into December, into a new year and to Sarasota for spring training. The 40-man roster has 39 players and the Orioles have multiple items remaining on their shopping list. They also need to hire a bench coach and major league coach.

Let’s look at four more topics and decisions hovering around the Orioles, with you, the reader, telling me how they’re going to turn out.

John Means is rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery and he’s a first-timer on the free-agent market. He has a second child on the way and the same desire to pitch.

My energy level isn’t allowing for a deep dive into anything beyond my couch, but Danny Coulombe’s removal from the bullpen adjusts the Opening Day projections.

Not too soon to post them and not too soon to pivot.

It isn’t common for a team to stand pat with its ‘pen, and I’d expect executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias to check the markets for at least one reliever that he can bring to camp and boost the competition and depth.

The Orioles claimed left-hander Tucker Davidson on waivers from the Royals in October 2023, three weeks after bringing back left-hander Luis González on another minor league deal. González was just added to the 40-man roster.

Jonathan Heasley was acquired in a December trade with the Royals and Wandisson Charles agreed to a minor league deal, but securing Craig Kimbrel at the Winter Meetings was the big haul. It just didn’t work out for more than half of the season.

The last two Octobers, the Orioles have gone 0-5 in playoff games and three of those were decided by one run. A clutch hit here or a clutch out there might have made the difference.

The O’s did not have Félix Bautista available for any of those games in the late innings. He last pitched for the Orioles on Aug. 25, 2023 and had Tommy John surgery in October of 2023.

But in 2025, Mountain time returns in Baltimore.

It’s like they signed or added an All-Star reliever. Bautista was a 2023 All-Star, and that year finished 11^th in the AL Cy Young voting.

Now, knock on wood, he should be a full go from the first day of spring training in February. At that point he will be 16 months removed from his procedure.

The Orioles will try next season to make the playoffs in three consecutive years for only the second time in franchise history and the first since 1969-71.

The Wild Card lessens the challenge but it remains a daunting task.

They won only one World Series in that span, beating the Reds in five games in 1970, and aren’t labeled as a dynasty because of the other October failures. The 2025 team, meanwhile, would be viewed in a positive light by advancing past its first playoff round.

The Orioles are tangled in a 10-game postseason losing streak that dates back to the 2014 ALCS. How can they wiggle free?

Let’s discuss three of the ways.

It’s never too early to start thinking about spring training storylines.

That’s a lie. It’s much too early. But there’s no harm in talking about a few topics in October.

Can the roster hold Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo?

There might not be two bigger curiosities in camp than this duo. Kjerstad was the second-overall pick in the 2020 draft, and you know the rest, including the myocarditis diagnosis that pushed back everything in his career and changed his life. Mayo has risen to No. 1 prospect in the system and No. 8 in baseball per MLB Pipeline, with power that makes jaws drop.

Kjerstad has it, too, but neither one has a position waiting for him. Kjerstad was supposed to be the everyday right fielder, but he was optioned again this season and sidelined by a concussion, and Anthony Santander hit 44 home runs. Mayo went 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts and was optioned twice, and a team trying for a deep playoff run went with more trustworthy defenders at third base.

Kyle Bradish and Félix Bautista slipped on backpacks this morning and left the ballpark for their flights to Sarasota, where they can keep rehabbing at the complex.

Bradish threw a 35-pitch bullpen session yesterday at Camden Yards. He used all of his pitches after being limited early to his fastball following his diagnosis in January of a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

“Feels really good,” he said.

The progress is encouraging since his platelet-rich plasma injection, but there’s no timeline for his return to the active roster and rotation.

“Still day-by-day, see how everything feels, see how I’m recovering,” he said.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Temperatures at the Ed Smith Stadium complex in Sarasota are expected to reach the 70s again today. Sunscreen is readily available in the baseball operations building and the athletic trainers’ carts during workouts, and also in the dugout once exhibition games begin.

Can’t block out the excitement that comes with the first official day of pitchers and catchers spreading out on the back fields and in the bullpen area.

Optimism also is running high for a club that posted the best record in the American League last year. It’s time to defend the division title.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias will meet the press later this morning, which presents another opportunity for a health check.

Not Elias’, since we’re assuming that he’s fine.

Time today for a few more facts and opinions about the 2023 Orioles and the Birds who will take the field in 2024.

Fact: The Orioles’ team ERA for last season was 3.89 which ranked fifth-best in the American League and seventh-best in the majors. In the second half, their team ERA of 3.58 ranked first in the AL and third in the majors.

Opinion: Is the O’s pitching really that good? Well it was last season and they were rolling in the second half. Several pitchers made improvements as the year went on. The back-end of the bullpen will be interesting to watch as Craig Kimbrel tries to replace Felix Bautista.

O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said this in early November, before the Kimbrel signing: “I am worried about Bautista’s absence and I don’t believe we felt that fully in September of 2023. We are going to try like hell to bring in some help from the outside for the back of our bullpen.”

Well they got some help and now we see how that works out and if the bullpen, which appears a strength with some depth on paper, plays out that way once the games begin.

With the Orioles set to play the entire 2024 season without closer Félix Bautista, which pitchers replace him in the ninth inning and how well they do next year will have a lot to say about the O’s team performance for the year.

Obviously, we don’t know yet the makeup of the 2024 bullpen and if the team will look to acquire via trade or free agency someone that could pitch the ninth. But one pitcher that will be in that late-inning mix is right-hander Yennier Cano, mentioned in this space yesterday as a player that surprised us in the 2023 season.

He sure did. He was not even on the Opening Day roster and in the 2022 season, between the Twins and Orioles in brief action, he had posted an 11.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. Then that same guy began his 2023 O’s season with 17 straight scoreless outings. That is about as surprising as it can get.

After Cano became more hittable in the second half – somewhat expected when you are almost unhittable – he no doubt has some doubters entering the winter.

But let’s look at some numbers first.

HOUSTON – Had the Orioles discovered a way to more accurately predict Ryan Mountcastle’s recovery from an injury to his left shoulder, they wouldn’t have waited until yesterday to remove him from the active roster. The data would have driven them.

Mountcastle kept making incremental gains in his recovery. Manager Brandon Hyde told the media on multiple occasions that the first baseman was “a little better” and might be available off the bench, at least in the field.

A few attempts to hit in the cage demolished the optimism that was building.

The description of left shoulder soreness was replaced by a more specific term - AC joint inflammation. Located at the tip of the shoulder where the scapula and clavicle come together.

Most injuries in this area start to improve within a week but can take much longer for a full recovery depending on the severity. The Orioles are hoping that Mountcastle is ready when eligible to come back.

John Means is bouncing back in fine fashion after making his first start Tuesday since undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery in April 2022.

“Everything’s felt great,” he said today. “It’s felt better than it has in a while, so I’m really pleased with everything that’s going on and how I’m feeling.”

Means threw a bullpen session on Thursday, again with the desired results.

“Felt good, everything feels normal,” he said.

Staying with a six-man rotation puts Means on the mound again Monday night in Houston, where he could be pitted against veteran Justin Verlander. The teams haven't listed their starters for the three-game series.

In the first nine games this year between the Orioles and Tampa Bay, the Orioles went 6-3 and they were 6-0 in games decided by two runs or less. 

But in the series opener last night in Baltimore, Tampa Bay won a close one by 4-3 on Luke Raley's tiebreaking homer in the seventh. The Rays bullpen put up four perfect innings to protect that lead. The Rays 'pen has thrown 34 straight innings without allowing an earned run.

Tonight, the Orioles hope their 'pen gets a chance to protect a late lead.

Then we will find out - Can the Orioles win close games against Tampa Bay without closer Félix Bautista?

It is really a question they are going to have answer the rest of the way and a big question for October playoff baseball.

The Orioles aren’t ready to shut the door on Félix Bautista’s season. They don’t feel the urgency to make a declaration with 20 games remaining before the playoffs.

Bautista isn’t in their bullpen, but time is on their side.

Executive Vice President/General Manager Mike Elias confirmed today in a media session that Bautista has a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. An MRI revealed the damage, which is termed “acute-on-chronic.” A sudden injury that also results from use over a period of time.

Surgery to replace the ligament, or a Tommy John procedure, remains a possibility down the road, but the Orioles aren’t traveling it this month.

“The question is when and how to deal with that,” Elias said.

Because my mailbag hates dry heat and cross-country flights, I’m answering more questions today from home and waiting to join the Orioles in Boston.

I go where it goes.

You understand how this works after 15 years. How it’s a sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

You want heavy editing? Go to a movie. I don’t tamper here. We’re crazy with clarity, sinful with style, bold with brevity, loony with length, ga-ga over grammar.

Also, my mailbag expands like a September roster and yours splits like the back of Ye’s jacket.

The Orioles are off today, flying into Arizona after yesterday’s loss to spend more time enjoying the dry heat. Think of it as a pizza oven except there’s no melted mozzarella.

Their roster expands by a pitcher and a position player on Friday. They’d do it anyway, but teams don’t have the option of staying at 26.

The dog days of August are gone. We’ve moved onto September baseball as a contender, and it’s the home stretch no matter where the schedule takes you.

“This is definitely an exciting time right now for our club,” manager Brandon Hyde said yesterday. “Going back to the West Coast. I feel like we were just there. It’s an important road trip, every game matters right now, every game’s important. And it’s a lot of fun playing in games that matter.”

Can’t flip the pages of the calendar without finding more questions, which isn’t as enjoyable.