Early look at Nats' free agent predictions

It’s still early November, so the Hot Stove is far from heating up. But with this past week getting us further removed from the end of the World Series, the offseason – specifically free agency – has officially begun.

For the Nationals, that means it may be time to make some significant offseason additions to the major league roster after years of waiting for their in-house prospects to reach the bigs, opening the window for them to compete again.

Mike Rizzo reportedly said at the General Manager Meetings this week in San Antonio that he thinks the Nats could make a big free agent signing this winter if it makes sense for the club, which would be a stark contrast to the organization’s philosophy over the last three offseasons.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Trade Rumors’ list of the top 50 free agents and which players its staff predicts will land in Washington …

1B PETE ALONSO
Top 50 rank: 7
Contract: Five years, $125 million

MLBTR had three out of four of its staff members in this exercise predict Alonso will sign with the Nats, which shouldn’t be that much of a surprise since the slugger has been connected as a possible fit in D.C. for a couple of months now.

The Nationals desperately need power in their lineup. And with the free agent departures of Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, they also need a first baseman to fill a position that hasn’t had a consistent producer since Ryan Zimmerman retired.

Alonso brings a lot of power at first. The right-hander’s 226 home runs since 2019 are second in the majors only to Aaron Judge’s 232.

For those who think the five years and $125 million is a little low for the four-time All-Star, Alonso will be 30 in December and is limited defensively at first. And predictions by both ESPN (six years, $159 million) and FanGraphs (seven years, $140 million) are around that $25 million average annual value for the former National League Rookie of the Year.

Now the fourth staffer predicted Alonso would return to the Mets, which is an obvious possibility. But reports have said the Mets’ top target this offseason is former National Juan Soto, who is MLBTR’s No. 1 free agent. The predictions to land Soto’s 13-year, $600 million deal are split between the Mets and Yankees.

If the Mets do indeed land Soto (yet again breaking the hearts of Nats fans), then it would seem unlikely they would also retain Alonso.

RHP LUIS SEVERINO 
Top 50 rank: 15
Contract: Three years, $51 million

Only one of the four MLBTR staffers predicted Severino would sign with the Nats. However, all four had different answers for the veteran right-hander.

After years of dealing with injuries while with the Yankees, Severino signed with the Mets on a one-year, $13 million deal and produced a respectable 3.81 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 31 starts, his most since 2018.

Rizzo always says, “You can’t have enough pitching, especially starting pitching.” And the GM mentioned at the end of the season he’ll be looking to add a starter to the rotation after the departures of Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams and the injury to Josiah Gray.

Severino may not be a top-of-the-line starter. But even if he slots behind MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and Cade Cavalli, he can provide solid starts in a young rotation that will need them.

There is a caveat to signing Severino: He was extended the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, so he could accept that and stay with the Mets. But if he rejects it, any other team that signs him would lose a draft pick.

LHP ANDREW HEANEY
Top 50 rank: 25
Contract: Two years, $24 million

Another situation where all four staffers predicted different teams with one selecting the Nats as the landing spot.

Heaney, 33, put up a 4.22 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 23.2 percent strikeout rate and 7.6 percent walk rate while averaging 153 ⅔ innings over two seasons with the Rangers and winning a World Series title in 2023.

Plenty of veteran starters in their 30s have received two-year deals in recent memory (i.e. Williams with the Nats), so this is a reasonable contract for ideally reasonable production. And when it’s up, the Nats could be really good and add a true No. 1 starter to their much-improved young rotation.

RHP KYLE GIBSON
Top 50 rank: 41
Contract: One year, $13 million

Again, four different landing spots were selected for Gibson, one of which was the Nationals.

The 37-year-old is available in free agency because the rebuilding Cardinals declined his 2025 club option to start their offseason.

But that had nothing to do with the veteran right-hander’s performance this year. In 30 starts, he produced a solid 4.24 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 20.9 percent strikeout rate, 9.4 percent walk rate and 44.8 percent grounder rate. And he’s durable, with Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole being the only two pitchers with more innings than Gibson since 2014.

Gibson is widely thought of as a respected veteran leader in the clubhouse who can provide league-average innings in bulk, both of which the Nats will need to compete in 2025.

RHP DAVID ROBERTSON
Top 50 rank: 47
Contract: One year, $11 million

Robertson is the fourth pitcher MLBTR has predicted the Nats will sign this offseason, but the first reliever.

This one might not move the needle a lot for fans as Robertson will turn 40 in April. But despite his age, he’s been one of the best high-leverage relievers over the past couple of seasons.

In 72 innings with the Rangers this season, the right-hander posted a 3.00 ERA while punching out 33.4 percent of batters and walking only 9.1 percent. And his cutter has only gotten better with age: His best pitch averaged 93.3 mph, which was tied with his 2023 season for the highest average of his 16-year career.

Robertson’s age prevents him from landing a multi-year deal, so he’s been living off one-year contracts recently. The price tag is a bit of a risk for an older reliever, but adding him to the back end of the Nats bullpen alongside Kyle Finnegan and Derek Law would give manager Davey Martinez another trusted arm to close out games.

MLB Trade Rumors also linked the Nats’ interests to these free agents (with their predicted contracts):

OF Anthony Santander (four years, $80 million)
LHP Sean Manaea (three years, $60 million)
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $44 million)
RHP Jeff Hoffman (four years, $44 million)
OF Michael Conforto (two years, $18 million)
C Kyle Higashioka (two years, $15 million)

You can find MLB Trade Rumors’ full list of the top 50 free agents and their predicted landing spots here.