How important is Martinez's high-speed fastball?

Spring is the season of dart throws.

The Orioles hit a bullseye last offseason when they signed Albert Suárez to a minor league deal.

Suárez hadn’t toed rubber in the majors since 2017, but became a key piece of the 2024 Orioles. The righty boasted a 3.09 ERA in eight games as a reliever and a 3.76 ERA as a starter.

“Big Al” may not have been a signing that turned many heads in 2023, but it was one that became consequential for Baltimore.

Naturally, many eyes are darting around camp in an attempt to find the next Suárez. A pitcher who, after an unsuccessful stint in the majors, bounced around to leagues all over the world to find his groove.

A few non-roster invitees at O’s camp fit that vague description.

Yaramil Hiraldo and Robinson Martínez posted impressive strikeout numbers during their time in the Dominican Winter League. Hiraldo turned my head during a bullpen session with an incredibly live fastball.

But one name has caught the attention of many: Rodolfo Martinez.

“When a guy’s throwing high 90’s with a split like that and a slider he can throw for strikes, that does open your eyes,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said of Martinez at camp. “I had never seen him throw before and that was exciting.”

Fastballs in the neighborhood of 100 mph, like the ones that Martinez throws, are almost certain to get noticed. Martinez’s impressive velocity has drawn a lot of attention from fans.

How often does velocity directly correlate to a plus fastball?

In 2024, Mason Miller threw the hardest four-seam fastball in baseball at an average of 100.9 mph. His run value on that pitch, per 100 fastballs thrown, was 20th in the game at 1.6, according to Statcast. That’s among pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances against. “Run value” is defined by Statcast as “the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count.”

Miller was 25th in baseball in overall arsenal run value among qualified pitchers. He was able to use his electric fastball, which he threw 63 percent of the time, to speed hitters up and get them off balance to the tune of a ridiculous 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

Robert Suárez, Albert’s brother, threw the fifth-fastest four-seamer in baseball last season, at an average of 99.1 mph. But among that same pool of pitchers with 100 plate appearances, Robert Suárez's fastball ranked 58th in run value per 100 pitches. Still good, just not dominant.

Make no mistake, Suárez’s fastball was still a plus offering. It was a much better pitch than Victor Vodnik’s fastball, which, despite being the ninth-fastest in the league, ranked 159th in run value per 100 offerings.

All this to say: Fastball velocity is important, but it does not directly translate to a good fastball. There are plenty of other factors, including vertical movement, spin rate and efficiency, location, and many others that all contribute to a fastball being a good pitch.

So while you can be excited about Martinez’s velocity, he’ll have to prove a lot more than that on the mound.

It’s a different part of Hyde’s statement on Martinez that will ultimately prove to be more important than the eye-catching velocity: throwing for strikes.

Back in 2019, Martinez’s last time with a major league organization, the right-hander walked more than five batters per nine innings across four different levels of the minor leagues.

Now you might be remembering that the Orioles have had success with pitchers who have struggled to find the zone, including Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano. Bautista walked nearly six batters per nine innings in the minors in 2021 and Cano walked 16 batters in just 18 innings of big league work in 2022.

The key distinction is that Cano and Bautista boast stuff that can play in the zone. And once their location improved, the quality pitches could still get by hitters.

The now dynamic duo each struck out about 10.5 batters per nine innings in their minor league careers. Bautista got that number close to 15 in 2021. Martinez has only averaged 8.8 strikeouts per nine in his minor league career and 7.5 strikeouts per nine in his seven years of experience elsewhere.

So if he’s locating over the plate, is his arsenal still good enough to get hitters out? We’ll need to see a lot more in spring training to make that determination.

It’s certainly possible that Martinez becomes another diamond in the rough expertly found by general manager Mike Elias and company. But to make waves in the big leagues, it’ll take a lot more than just a high-speed fastball.