The cold and hard math from the 2022 season tells us this: The Orioles had a below-average offense this year. But not by a large amount. Still, it was enough to have Birdland’s concern meter on the rise as the year ended. The O’s offense stumbled badly at the end, and for some, that is the lasting memory of how they did with the bats this year.

Wins is the stat that matters above them all, but for offense, the number of runs tells the most complete story. The Orioles averaged 4.16 runs per game this year to rank 10^th in the American League, behind the league average of 4.22 per game.

For much of the year the club was at right about league average. They were at 4.20 runs per game at the All-Star break and scoring 4.24 through August. Had they maintained that, they would have finished just above league average. But the Orioles scored just 3.97 runs per game in the final month, and their season-long average decreased.

The highest-scoring teams in the league were the Yankees (4.98 rpg), the Blue Jays (4.78 rpg) and the Astros (4.55 rpg).

In 2021, when American League teams produced more offense, the O’s scored 4.07 runs per game to rank 14^th in the league, well behind last year's average of 4.60 per game. So they went from 14^th in 2021 to 10^th in runs per game in 2022.

For Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins, a follow-up act was always going to be a challenge. How does a player produce the first 30-30 season in Orioles history and then repeat that?

Since 1954, the club’s first year in Baltimore, no player had ever hit 30 or more homers and stole 30 or more bases in the same season. It was not done by anyone else in the majors in 2021 and had not happened in the American League since 2018.

It probably would have been more of a surprise if Mullins had in fact repeated the feat, but he fell 14 homers short. In one sense, was the great achievement of 30-30 a bit of a burden for him this season? Maybe somewhat.

“Yeah, but in terms of pressure I wasn’t feeling pressure to repeat that, but I had that as a goal. But I think at the end of the day I just wanted to put together a strong season like I feel I have,” said Mullins.

It was a year where his OPS was four percent above league average, but not 37 percent as it was when he was the unanimous Most Valuable Oriole. In ’21 he batted .291/.360/.518/.878 with 37 doubles, five triples, 30 homers and 59 RBIs. He stole 30 of 38.

When it comes to Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo, there is a lot to like. He led the American League in stolen bases, he plays very solid, sometimes outstanding defense, and that top-of-the-scale speed never goes into a slump.

The defense and speed are plenty good enough for a first-division team, but is his offense? At a time when there are so many good-hitting shortstops in the American League, the O’s have a player that comes up short in that area.

When we consider Mateo’s future with the club, there are two elephants in the room: One, will that offense improve sufficiently or can we overlook it with that speed-defense combo? Two, will one or more of the O’s numerous and talented infield prospects be coming to take his job?

First, kudos and props for Mateo. In Orioles history, only Luis Aparicio and Brian Roberts have ever led the AL or been tied for first in steals. Mateo’s 35 topped the circuit by one over teammate Cedric Mullins, and by three over Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena.

Mateo’s dWAR, per baseball-reference.com, of 2.8 was tied for eighth-best in the major leagues. His 11 Outs Above Average (OAA), per Statcast, led AL shortstops, and his 14 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) ranked third among big league shortstops and second in the AL to Houston’s Jeremy Peña.

After going – and this is accurate – a full 27 months between his last college game at the University of Arkansas in March 2020 and his first pro game earlier this season for low Single-A Delmarva, outfielder Heston Kjerstad continues to make up for lost time.

And he lost a lot of time.

The bout with myocarditis that is now in his rear-view mirror and the hamstring injured that sidelined him early this year. His long-awaited pro debut came on June 10 this summer for Delmarva. On July 13 he moved to high Single-A Aberdeen and ended the minor league year in the playoffs with the IronBirds. And now he’s doing well in the Arizona Fall League with the Scottsdale Scorpions.

In a late-season interview at Aberdeen's Ripken Stadium, Kjerstad said just being back on the field, playing in games and being healthy again, made this a special year for him.

“It’s been a great season,” he said before an IronBirds playoff game. “After going through my struggles, it’s even more fun (just playing) than I remember it being. And just being able to be out here everyday with the guys, working and getting better. Now let’s go home with some wins.”

We sure can’t say the 2022 Major League Baseball playoffs have lacked in surprises or drama. We saw three road teams advance, a 15-innings thriller, a six-run ninth inning rally, an ear inspection and a team trailing 8-1 in the fifth inning rally to win.

So yeah, a lot going on in just three days of ball.

The madness resumes today with four Division Series matchups, three of which are interdivision matchups. Should be fun and no doubt we will see more surprises and more drama.

I did not expect to see the Toronto Blue Jays go two and (barbe) que. One of baseball’s best offenses got shutout in Game 1 and Seattle rallied from seven runs down to win Game 2. Wowser. Maybe this series provided the latest example that how a team ends its season matters little in the postseason. Toronto went 22-11 in September and the Orioles saw it first-hand when they played them three times and lost all three series. But even at loud and crazy Rogers Centre, which was rocking at times again in October, they lost.

Tampa Bay was also two and done versus Cleveland. I was a bit surprised that some O’s fans took pleasure in the Jays and Rays getting eliminated. For me, I kind of like the talk of how strong the AL East is and was again this year, but teams losing in the opening round takes some shine off that. I can see not rooting for Boston and New York, but it seems some O’s fans want all four to destruct in October.

The Orioles Gunnar Henderson was not in the major leagues that long – for 34 games – but long enough to experience both hot and cold streaks at-bat. And long enough to have some big moments and hits, long enough to show he belongs and that his considerable talents play at the level at the age of 21.

Unlike with fellow top prospect Adley Rutschman, he was hitting well almost from the start, although he did have some struggles late in the year when he said he was getting a heavy dose of breaking balls.

Henderson’s first go-round in MLB produced these numbers over 132 plate appearances: .259/.348/.440/.788 for an OPS+ of 123 with seven doubles, a triple, four homers and 18 RBIs.

He remains rookie eligible, falling short of thresholds of 130 at-bats (he had 116) or 45 days on the roster to lose rookie status. He could win the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year.

He did win the 2022 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year award. Over 121 games between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, he batted .297/.416/.531/.947 with 101 runs, 19 homers and 76 RBIs.

While just one of the four O's full-season minor league affiliates - high Single-A Aberdeen - made the playoffs this year, it was a banner season for the organization in player development. They had two players ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the sport and both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson made the majors and did well when they got there.

The Orioles prospects list was noted for both the quality and depth it showed this season. That was seen by the Orioles being ranked as the No. 1 farm at midseason by Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and ESPN.

Today let's take a look at a few stat categories for both hitters and pitchers and see which players were among the top five O's this year for those stats. Later we'll take a look at more stat categories.

OPS (min, 250 PAs)

.946 - Gunnar Henderson
.886 - Connor Norby
.884 - Kyle Stowers
.874 - Colton Cowser
.852 - Jordan Westburg

There is one area where it might be tough for the 2023 Orioles to match the 2022 version. It’s an area that we won’t be able to compare on a stat sheet. It’s team chemistry and camaraderie.

For the 83-win Orioles this year, it was exceptional.

Players cited it throughout the year and as the season went on, it was hard not to notice how close-knit this team was. And the closeness developed and showed itself both before games and even outside of the ballparks and then showed up many nights at 7 o’clock. There was no stat for it – advanced or otherwise, but this chemistry was vital to this team this year.

As the Orioles look to take the winning to the next level, outfielder Austin Hays said the togetherness is important. Players genuinely enjoyed seeing teammates suceed, not because they should do that, but because it came naturally.

“I think we turned the culture here into a winning environment,” said Hays. “Where, we are celebrating wins in the clubhouse as a team. We’re going and having team dinners together. We had a win belt this year for player of the game and guys had to give speeches after that. All those things that come with the wins, just the team growing together and growing with one another, it was a culture we didn’t have here for the last three years.

When I asked Orioles outfielder Austin Hays to analyze his own season before Wednesday’s doubleheader, the first point he made was an important one and I could tell it really mattered to him.

He stayed on the field this year.

There were a few bumps and bruises along the way, but he played in a career-high 145 games taking a career-high 535 at-bats. His team could depend on him to be there this year even if he wasn’t always playing at 100 percent. That is important to any player and gains him respect in the clubhouse.

“Personally I think it was a big win for me to stay healthy from the start to the end of the year,” Hays said. “I had a really, really solid first half. The second half I was very inconsistent and had a couple of bad stretches where I went down (in the stats). But overall I learned a lot this year and am happy with how my personal year went.”

He had 53 more plate appearances this year than he did in 2021 and produced nine more doubles with six fewer homers and 11 fewer RBIs.

If an offseason can be filled with intrigue and drama, this one could for the Orioles.

After an 83-win season, 31 more than the previous year, the Orioles are a winning team. Now we begin to find out how they take what they have impressively built to get to this point, to get to the next stage.

To get to where they can win 90 to 100 games, to not only contend for the playoffs, but for division championships with a team that could make a deep postseason run. And do it year after year after year. That is the long-range goal for the Orioles, and now we begin to see if they can realize it.

They have done such a great job just to get to this point.

They have a low payroll and plenty of flexibility with that moving forward. They have a top-ranked farm both to produce players to contribute to the big league club and players that could be involved in some key trades this winter.

The Orioles battled the weather and the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series on Monday night. Toronto won the game, which was called in the eighth, by a 5-1 score to take the series opener. The scheduled second game of this series was rained out yesterday.

So the clubs will complete the 2022 regular season today with a straight doubleheader at Oriole Park. The Birds head into the offseason after the games while the Jays begin play in the American League playoffs at home Friday in the best-of-three Wild Card Series.

The Orioles (82-78) have clinched a winning season and could finish with 84 victories with two more wins. But Monday’s loss was their fifth in the last seven games and they have lost seven of 10, 11 of 18 and 17 of the last 28 games. They are 14-17 since Sept. 1.

The Baltimore offense has scored three runs or less for six consecutive games since they scored 14 runs followed by nine runs in the first two games of their recent series in Boston. In those six games, they have scored just 10 total runs on 34 hits, going 2-for-37 with runners in scoring position. The Orioles have not homered in the last four games and have hit just two in the past six games.

Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo stole his 35th base of the season Monday night. He became the sixth Orioles player (eighth occurrence) since 2000 to record 35 steals in a single season and first since Jonathan Villar swiped 40 in 2019. Mateo leads the AL in steals by one over teammate Cedric Mullins, by three over Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena and by five over Bobby Witt Jr. of Kansas City.

The season is down to one final day, and for the Orioles, two final games in today’s doubleheader against the Blue Jays. When Game No. 162 is over, an Oriole is likely to be leading the American League in stolen bases and that has been a rarity in team history.

But who will win the title with two contenders going? O’s shortstop Jorge Mateo is the current AL leader with 35 and his teammate center fielder Cedric Mullins is next at 34.

“It’s been fun. Just going back and forth,” Mullins said about competing with a teammate for the league steals lead. “It was funny when he went back up by two or three not too long and I came back and caught back up. Just Monday for example, I knew he would be aggressive when he got on base. We’re going to bring it down to the wire and see what happens.

“I think that makes it even more interesting, having someone on the same team competing with you for the stolen base title. We’re both pulling for each other. It’s an interesting dynamic for sure.”

Just three times since the Orioles moved to Baltimore in 1954 has an Oriole led the AL in steals. Luis Aparicio did so with 40 in 1963 and 57 in 1964. It happened just once since when Brian Roberts stole 50 bags in 2007 and was a co-leauge leader with Carl Crawford of Tampa Bay.

Orioles infield prospect Jordan Wesburg is looking forward to the baseball offseason. For him it will include his wedding in December and more work toward making his major league debut.

While it didn’t come this year, it figures to be a near certainty for the 2023 season. Westburg is the O’s No. 5 ranked prospect via MLBPipeline.com on the club’s top 30 list and is now No. 76 on their national top 100. He is the O’s No. 6 prospect on the Baseball America list and No. 89 on the BA top 100.

After a big year that included 47 games at Double-A Bowie and 91 at Triple-A Norfolk, Westburg was named the Orioles' Minor League Player of the Year, winning the Brooks Robinson award. He was at Camden Yards yesterday and hopes to make that ballpark home soon.

“I feel like you are one step away when you get to Triple-A," he said. "You are one injury away, one whatever away. It’s really cool to have that realization. But there are still things that I would like work on. Still things I need to accomplish. Obviously I didn’t make it up here this year. And that says that we were winning here with the big league club and I wasn’t needed, but there are things I need to address so that next year in spring training I can have a shot.

“I’d like to continue to be more consistent. Continue to polish up the hit tool. There are flashes of things clicking together and also flashes of going into slumps and a little bit up and down. So, if I can can smooth those things out, it gives me a better chance to play up here. Everything is amplified and a bit harder on the biggest stage.”

Orioles infield prospect Jordan Westburg admits it was a bit surprising that he took home the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award after his good friend and minor league teammate Gunnar Henderson was named national Player of the Year by Baseball America.

But Westburg’s season and performance this year don’t take a back seat to anyone. He batted .265/.355/.496 (144-for-544) with 39 doubles, three triples, 27 homers, 96 runs scored, 106 RBIs, 70 walks and 12 stolen bases in 138 games between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. He led Orioles minor leaguers in doubles, extra-base hits (69), total bases (270) and RBIs. He also finished second in the organization in hits and home runs. After being promoted to the Tides on June 6, he led the International League with 74 RBIs.

“I’m proud of the award,” Westburg said this afternoon at Camden Yards. “I put in a lot of work this offseason to, obviously, produce the way I did this year. I’m happy that I won it. But essentially, at the big league level it’s not about me, it’s about the team and winning games and winning championships. That is what it’s going to come down to, but right now it’s cool to win this award.

“When I saw the news that Gunnar won the Baseball America Player of the Year, I was happy for him and a little shocked that I won the Orioles’ award. That is a little bit bigger award. But like I said, there were a lot of guys deserving of the award and I just feel lucky to have won it.”

And beyond Henderson, several players had big years on the O's farm this year. Henderson produced the top OPS in the system at .946, with Connor Norby next at .886, then Kyle Stowers at .884, Colton Cowser .874 and Westburg at .852.

He could get lost in the shuffle a bit in a large group of Orioles prospects that had big seasons at the plate this year. Gunnar Henderson was named Baseball America’s Player of the Year on the farm. Jordan Westburg was the Orioles' Player of the Year. Joey Ortiz had a big second half. Kyle Stowers got to Baltimore. Colton Cowser had a strong finish. Others made their marks.

Infielder Connor Norby is neither a top 100 prospect yet or a first-round draft pick. He doesn’t have the size of so-called traditional sluggers. But no one on the O’s farm hit more than his 29 homers this year. He ended the season hitting one more on the final day to win the O’s farm homer title by two over Westburg.

“I feel like I’ve always had sneaky pop in a sense. I don’t try to hit home runs. Every time I’ve tried to hit a home run, I never do. But I think my home runs came from putting good swings on a pitch,” Norby said in a recent phone interview.

Norby is ranked as the Orioles No. 12 prospect by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com. And both outlets grade his hit tool over his power tool, which gets a just below average 45 grade.

But his power this year looked like more than 45. 

The Orioles have just three games and one series remaining in the 2022 season. Tonight at cloudy and chilly Camden Yards, they host Toronto to start a season-ending three-game series.

The Orioles (82-77) bring a bit of momentum home with them after taking two of three at Yankee Stadium over the weekend. They won 3-1 Sunday, and win No. 82 clinched their first winning record since 2016.

The O's went 3-4 on the final road trip to Boston and New York and ended the year going 38-43 (.469) in road games. That is their best road record since going 39-42 (.481) in 2016.

The Orioles are 44-34 (.564) at home, tied for the sixth-best home winning percentage in the American League and 11th-best in the majors. This marks their most wins and best winning percentage at home since they went 46-35 (.568) in 2017.

The Orioles scored just five runs in the series at New York, and were shut out on Saturday. They have scored just nine runs their last five games, going 2-for-36 with runners in scoring position in that span. They have scored three or fewer in 16 of the last 27 games, going 4-12 in those contests.

As O’s rookie catcher Adley Rutschman was named the Most Valuable Oriole today – just the third rookie to take the MVO award since 1954 – it can be easy to forget he wasn’t always producing an .800 or better OPS.

Rutschman played his first game this year for the Orioles on May 21, and after 15 games he was batting .143 with a .422 OPS. After his first 20 games he had no homers or RBIs before breaking through June 15 at Toronto when he hit a two-run homer in the fourth off José Berríos, the same pitcher he will face tonight.

After saying how honored he was today to win the MVO, which is voted on by local media, he recalled the early struggles at the big league level.

“It’s just, we talk about the process a lot, and when you are struggling it’s definitely tough to stay in that mindset,” he said. “But just was trying to do the best that I could to stay positive, stay in the clubhouse around the guys and not let it dictate my attitude or anything else. Kind of control-the-controllables-type thing. Just try to continue to learn and show up to the field with energy.”

And he was getting plenty of support and encouragement at that time.

This has probably been true for a while now but the 2022 Orioles will be a special team in Birdland for many years to come. They may be remembered as fondly as the 1989 Why Not Orioles and the 2012 team that ended a 14-year run of losing.

With Sunday's win at New York by 3-1, the Orioles didn't just achieve a winning season. But they did so coming off their last three full seasons with a combined 333 losses. They lost 115 in 2018, 108 in 2019 and 110 in 2021.

They went from 52 wins to 82 wins.

According to many, maybe to most preseason predictions, they were supposed to lose 100 again. When they started the year going 7-14 in April, it looked like those predictions might be accurate.

They started the year 1-5 but with four losses by two runs or less against two 2021 playoff teams in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. And they showed off some bullpen arms early on that had combinations of power and stuff. 

The Orioles have four games left in the 2022 season as they continue to seek at least one more win to achieve their first winning season since going 89-73 in 2016.

Today they play the final road game of this series and road trip, and the final road game of the season. They can win the series with a victory today. They are 2-4 on this road trip and 37-43 on the season in road games. They are 10-13-2 in their road series this year.

The Orioles beat the Yankees 2-1 on Friday night, holding New York to four hits as Jordan Lyles pitched seven innings and the O’s got one each from Félix Bautista and DL Hall, who recorded his first MLB save. But Saturday, the Orioles were held to three hits in an 8-0 loss to New York.

The Orioles were shutout for the second time in 13 games, the fourth in 26 games, the 11^th time on the season and the third time by the Yankees, who also pitched shutouts against Baltimore on May 25 and July 24.

New York pitchers recorded their 16th shutout of the season. The game marked just the second time in the last 44 seasons, since 1979, that the Yankees have recorded as many shutouts in a year. They also had 16 in 1998. Yankees batters homered twice Saturday and they lead MLB with 246 home runs. That number is their third-most in a single season in franchise history, trailing only the 306 in 2019 and 267 in 2018.

Having too many good players is not really a problem for any major league club. As we look down the road a year or two at the Orioles infield, it is starting to get crowded between players we’ve already seen in Baltimore and players on the way.

Of the current top 18 players on the O’s top 30 prospects list via MLBPipeline.com, nine are infielders, and seven of the nine have played at least as high as Double-A already. The depth is strong.

Gunnar Henderson, at least for now, is still prospect eligible and is the club’s No. 1 prospect with Jackson Holliday at No. 3, Jordan Westburg No. 5, Coby Mayo No. 7, Connor Norby No. 11, Max Wagner No. 15, Darell Hernaiz No. 16, Joey Ortiz No 17 and César Prieto No. 18.

Only four players can start on the infield each day, they tell me.

How will the Orioles handle this? Will there be trades? Will any of these players have to move positions?