After a sustained run as one of baseball’s highest-spending clubs, the Nationals have morphed into one of the sport’s lower-spending clubs over the last 12 months. Given the state of the franchise’s rebuild, that’s not unexpected. Teams focused on identifying young pieces for the future don’t boast high payrolls.

But the question remains on the minds of so many right now: When will the Nats decide it’s time to spend big again, and what will that look like?

Reading tea leaves from club officials, it doesn’t sound like a splurge is coming this winter. They’re still focused on identifying those long-term parts to the puzzle. Once they have a better sense what they already have, they may be more inclined to spend money to acquire what they don’t have.

But even if they don’t go big yet, there’s reason to believe payroll will increase in 2024. Not by a lot, but some.

First, some background: From 2013-21, the Nationals ranked in the top 10 in the majors in end-of-season payroll every year, with a club record $205 million payroll (fourth-highest in baseball) during the 2019 World Series run.

We don’t know yet how the Nationals are going to approach this offseason. Is there a chance they spend big on a free agent? Are they going to stick with their approach from last winter and sign several stopgap players to one-year contracts? What positions are they targeting most?

We’ll learn in the coming weeks and months how exactly this is going to play out, but as the true offseason gets underway this week, it’s helpful to look at what the Nats currently have as a guide for what they might now want to add.

And that doesn’t just mean what they have at the big league level. Now more than ever, the presence of top prospects in Double-A or Triple-A who could be close to arriving in D.C. can and should affect how Mike Rizzo and Co. approach the Hot Stove League. If they think they’ve got a long-term answer at third base waiting to make his major league debut, they probably aren’t going to sign a free agent for more than one year. If they don’t think they’ve got an in-house answer at first base, they might well decide it is appropriate to make a long-term commitment to someone from the outside.

So let’s take an opportunity this morning to look at the Nationals’ organizational depth chart, position by position. The top players listed are currently on the 40-man roster. Players who follow with an asterisk next to their names are not on the 40-man roster (though some could be added next week when the team needs to protect them from being lost in the Rule 5 Draft).

CATCHER
Keibert Ruiz
Riley Adams
Drew Millas
Israel Pineda
Brady Lindsly*
Onix Vega*

After filling two vacant spots on their coaching staff with in-house promotions, the Nationals are now filling a prime vacancy with a notable outside name.

Miguel Cairo will be Davey Martinez’s new bench coach, a source familiar with the decision confirmed, reuniting the former Tampa Bay teammates and giving Martinez another experienced voice in the dugout.

Cairo, 49, spent this season as the Mets minor league infield instructor, but he spent the previous two seasons as the White Sox bench coach, ultimately taking over as interim manager for several months while Tony La Russa dealt with a medical issue.

A veteran of 17 big league seasons with nine different organizations from 1996-2012, Cairo was a well-regarded utility infielder who played all around the diamond. He was still a young player when he and Martinez (then nearing the end of his career) were teammates with the then-Devil Rays from 1998-2000 and forged a friendship.

Martinez has spoken highly of Cairo in the past and lobbied for him to get the White Sox’s full-time managerial job after La Russa retired. Chicago instead hired Pedro Grifol for the position, leaving Cairo to find employment with the Mets instead.

Organizational prospect rankings are by nature ever-changing. Top prospects reach the big leagues and watch their careers take off. New draft picks join the list and leapfrog other established players. Some once-touted prospects lose their steam and disappear off the radar.

But it’s notable how much the Nationals’ prospect rankings have changed in the last two years, growing from one of the least-touted groups in baseball to one that is now turning a whole lot of heads.

And it’s not necessarily all the same names everyone assumed would top the list not that long ago.

Baseball America unveiled its 2024 Top 10 ranking Monday, and while most of the names include on the list come as no surprise, the order they are listed does include a few surprises.

Headlining the group is the newest member of the organization: Dylan Crews. As one would expect, the No. 2 overall pick in this summer’s draft immediately takes over as the No. 1 prospect in the Nationals organization. (He should be a top-10 prospect in the sport once that list is unveiled later this winter.)

The Nationals set their 40-man roster for the offseason as required by Major League Baseball this afternoon, activating five players who had been on the 60-day injured list (including Stephen Strasburg) and designating minor league reliever Matt Cronin for assignment to clear the spot needed to get the organization down to the correct number.

With 41 players under club control but only 40 slots available now through Opening Day, the Nats decided to drop Cronin, a 26-year-old lefty who looked like he would be a part of the team’s long-term plans entering this season but fell from grace following a rough season that ended in injury.

Cronin, a fourth-round pick in 2019, posted a 2.42 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 48 games with Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Rochester in 2022. But he struggled to a 5.02 ERA and 1.884 WHIP this season in Rochester and had surgery in August for a herniated disc in his back.

Meanwhile, the emergence of Robert Garcia, Jose A. Ferrer and Joe La Sorsa this year left the Nationals with several left-handed options for next year’s bullpen, further making Cronin expendable.

If Cronin goes unclaimed, he could be outrighted to the minors and remain in the organization, albeit no longer a member of the 40-man roster.

The World Series ended five days ago. That means, for all intents and purposes, the offseason begins today.

While there have been a few newsworthy developments up to this point, today marks the more official start of the Hot Stove League. Free agents may begin to sign contracts. Teams must set their 40-man rosters. Decisions of real consequence will start being made.

What might this offseason have in store for the Nationals? Here’s a primer to get you in the right frame of mind for what comes next …

* SETTING THE 40-MAN ROSTER
The first order of business is setting the organization’s 40-man roster, which for the last seven months has included more than 40 players. That’s because anyone on the 60-day injured list didn’t count against the total.

But there is no IL during the offseason. Healthy or not, everyone must be included on the 40-man roster or else be placed on waivers, made available to other teams or just flat-out released altogether.

For as much angst as the recently completed World Series generated – How dare the venerable Fall Classic feature a 90-win team against an 84-win team, neither of which won its division! – it really should have been embraced to the fullest extent around here.

Not because Nationals fans should’ve felt an emotional pull toward the Rangers, who spent the first 11 of their 63 years of existence as the Washington Senators. Not because it afforded Max Scherzer the opportunity to win his second ring. And not because the Diamondbacks made sure neither the reviled Dodgers nor the reviled Phillies (who took care of the reviled Braves) would reach the World Series again.

No, this series should’ve been wholly embraced by any baseball fan in the D.C. area because it offered something that’s been in short supply around here for several years now: Hope. Real hope.

Surely you heard it mentioned once or 17 times in the last two weeks, but just in case you forgot: Both the Rangers and Diamondbacks lost 100-plus games two seasons ago. Then Texas went 68-94 while Arizona went 74-88 last season. And here they were squaring off in the final week of October for the Commissioner’s Trophy.

The Nationals, as you already know, lost 107 games last season. And they finished this season 71-91. Huh, how do you like that?

The Nationals decided to promote from within when selecting a new farm director. The club today named Eddie Longosz as vice president and assistant general manager of player development and administration, giving a longtime front office member the opportunity to now oversee the entire minor league operation.

Longosz, 37, has worked for the Nationals since 2010 and spent the last eight seasons as director of scouting operations. In that role, he assisted general manager Mike Rizzo on all aspects of the club’s amateur, professional and international scouting operations.

This promotion moves Longosz into a new area, one the organization has been trying to improve for some time. When longtime farm director Doug Harris was forced to leave baseball in 2020 while fighting an ongoing battle with cancer, his longtime assistant Mark Scialabba formally took over a role he essentially had already held for several years. Two years later, the team made veteran scout De Jon Watson director of player development, tasked with overhauling a farm system that was undergoing massive change following the trades of Juan Soto, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and others for prospects.

The Nats parted ways with Watson shortly after this season ended, though, making him one of a number of experienced baseball operations staffers who either were let go, resigned or retired. Now they turn to Longosz to take over a critical job for a franchise counting on several top prospects to make their major league debuts in the next few years.

“Eddie Longosz has been integral to our organization’s success over the past 14 years,” Rizzo said in the team’s statement announcing the promotion. “He is a tireless worker with extensive knowledge of our minor league players, coaches and system as a whole. He developed strong relationships with many of our current players during the draft process and has earned not only their trust, but the trust of those around them.

PLAYER REVIEW: MASON THOMPSON

Age on Opening Day 2024: 26

How acquired: Traded with Jordy Barley from Padres for Daniel Hudson, July 2021

MLB service time: 2 years, 42 days

2023 salary: $724,400

The Nationals have declined their 2024 club option on Victor Robles, but that doesn’t necessarily mean an end to the outfielder’s time with the organization.

In choosing not to pick up their $3.3 million option for Robles, the Nats still retain control of the player, who has accrued only five years and 33 days of big league service time. That makes him eligible for arbitration once again this winter before he can finally become a free agent.

The Nationals and Robles could negotiate and agree to terms on a 2024 salary, one that most likely would be worth more than the $2.325 million he made this year but less than the $3.3 million option they agreed last offseason. If they can’t come to terms by January, they could file competing figures for arbitration and await the ruling of a three-judge panel.

Or, the Nats still could decide to cut ties with Robles and not tender him a contract before the league-wide Nov. 17 deadline, making him a free agent now.

It’s not entirely clear which direction the team will go after another disappointing season from Robles, though this time for different reasons from the past.

PLAYER REVIEW: ANDRES MACHADO

Age on Opening Day 2024: 30

How acquired: Signed as minor league free agent, February 2021

MLB service time: 2 years, 23 days

2023 salary: $720,000

PLAYER REVIEW: JORDAN WEEMS

Age on Opening Day 2024: 31

How acquired: Signed as minor-league free agent, March 2022

MLB service time: 2 years, 55 days

2023 salary: $720,000

In reshaping their coaching staff, the Nationals appear to be looking inward for help.

The Nats are promoting Ricky Gutierrez to third base coach and Gerardo Parra to first base coach, a source familiar with the decisions confirmed, filling two of the four vacant jobs on Davey Martinez’s big league staff with a couple of former big league players who already worked for the organization.

Gutierrez, who replaces Gary DiSarcina, spent this season as the Nationals run prevention coordinator, essentially an extra infield coach on the major league staff who traveled with the team and was in the dugout during games. He received praise for his work with CJ Abrams, who developed into a much better defensive shortstop over the course of the season.

The 53-year-old former infielder for the Padres, Astros, Cubs, Indians, Mets and Red Sox will be coaching third base in the majors for the first time. He does have some experience at that position, though, as manager of the Reds’ Double-A affiliate in 2021.

DiSarcina had far more big league coaching experience, including the last two years with the Nationals, but the club did not renew his contract after the season ended, signaling a desire for better performance at that position.

PLAYER REVIEW: HUNTER HARVEY

Age on Opening Day 2024: 29

How acquired: Claimed off waivers from Giants, March 2022

MLB service time: 4 years, 47 days

2023 salary: $870,000

Frank Howard, the hulking slugger who won over a generation of Washington baseball fans with his towering home runs and genteel personality, has died at 87, the Nationals announced this afternoon.

Affectionately known to fans as “Hondo,” “The Capitol Punisher” and “The Washington Monument,” Howard played 16 seasons in four major league cites and spent another two decades coaching and managing for six other organizations. But his legacy was defined by the seven seasons he spent with the Washington Senators from 1965-71, blasting homers into the upper deck at RFK Stadium and becoming every local baseball fan’s favorite player for life, including one young D.C. native who would eventually own the city’s next big league club.

“Growing up a baseball fan in Washington, D.C., Frank Howard was my hero,” Nationals managing principal owner Mark Lerner said in a statement released by the team. “The towering home runs he hit into the stands at RFK Stadium gave him the nickname ‘Capital Punisher,’ but I’ll always remember him as a kind and gentle man. The entire Lerner family would like to offer our thoughts and condolences to Frank’s family during this difficult time. The world of baseball has truly lost a giant.”

Standing 6-foot-7 and weighing 255 pounds, Howard would’ve been a physically imposing hitter in today’s game. In the 1960s and ’70s, he was a jaw-dropping presence in a sport not known for producing many players of that stature.

Signed by the Dodgers out of Ohio State in March 1958, Howard made his major league debut that September. The outfielder became a full-time big leaguer in 1960 and won National League Rookie of the Year honors, then finished ninth in the MVP race two seasons later.

PLAYER REVIEW: KYLE FINNEGAN

Age on Opening Day 2024: 32

How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2019

MLB service time: 4 years

2023 salary: $2.325 million

PLAYER REVIEW: THADDEUS WARD

Age on Opening Day 2024: 27

How acquired: Selected in Rule 5 draft, December 2022

MLB service time: 1 year

2023 salary: $720,000

PLAYER REVIEW: JACKSON RUTLEDGE

Age on Opening Day 2024: 24

How acquired: First-round pick, 2019 Draft

MLB service time: 19 days

2023 salary: $720,000

PLAYER REVIEW: JAKE IRVIN

Age on Opening Day 2024: 27

How acquired: Fourth-round pick, 2018 Draft

MLB service time: 152 days

2023 salary: $720,000

PLAYER REVIEW: TREVOR WILLIAMS

Age on Opening Day 2024: 31

How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2022

MLB service time: 7 years, 27 days

2023 salary: $6 million