Not so long ago – 2 1/2 weeks, to be precise – the Nationals appeared to be making real progress.

With an 8-7 win over the Phillies on June 2, the Nats improved to 25-32 overall. They even owned a winning record over nearly one-quarter of a full season, going 20-19 after opening the year a dismal 5-13. They were on pace for a 71-win season, which would be a dramatic improvement from a 55-107 fiasco in 2022.

Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore were leading the pitching staff, each making a case for All-Star consideration. The lineup, while still lacking in the power department, was managing to string together rallies with some regularity, scoring six or more runs five times in a span of 11 games. Young potential cornerstones Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia were making positive contributions.

In that moment, it was fair for anyone who has watched this franchise’s decline from World Series champs to full-scale rebuild to wonder if the worst days of this painful process were now in the past.

Then the Nationals started losing. And losing more. And losing even more.

As he impressed throughout April and May with the best sustained stretch of his young career, one question loomed over Josiah Gray: Could he continue to keep the ball in the yard all summer, avoiding the back-breaking home runs that spoiled his 2022 season?

Four starts into June, the initial answer to that question is not an encouraging one. Gray is serving up homers again, and this afternoon it cost him more than in any previous outing this year.

Despite early support from his teammates to the tune of a five-run lead, Gray gave it all back and more in an 8-6 loss to the Cardinals, the critical sequence coming in the top of the fifth when he surrendered back-to-back homers to turn a game the Nationals once controlled into yet another demoralizing loss.

"The offense has been phenomenal for me out there pitching. I can't applaud those guys enough," Gray said. "I've just got to be better and not squander a five-run lead."

The Nats’ 12th loss in 14 games differed from most that preceded it, because they actually hit well in this one. They jumped all over St. Louis starter Jack Flaherty, jumping out to a 5-0 lead after two innings and putting Gray in prime position to take care of the rest.

Jeimer Candelario is back in the Nationals lineup this afternoon, and while that wouldn’t seem to be a dramatic change, for this particular lineup at this particular time, it is quite significant.

Candelario was scratched from the lineup Sunday about an hour prior to first pitch with a sore right thumb after getting jammed the previous evening. Michael Chavis, who was supposed to be filling in at first base for the day, shifted to third base, with Dominic Smith, who was supposed to have the day off, starting at first base after all.

The end result: The Nats managed only two runs on eight hits in a 4-2 loss to the Marlins, with Chavis going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and Smith going 0-for-4 with three groundouts to first.

Candelario may not be thought of elsewhere as a premier, middle-of-the-order bat, but he has become critical to the Nationals’ chances of scoring runs as this season has played out. His .788 OPS ranks second among all regulars on the club, behind Lane Thomas’ .822 mark. His 21 doubles rank third in the National League. And he has three Defensive Runs Saved at third base, providing steady play in the field since Opening Day.

His absence Sunday was noticeable.

The season is nearly halfway complete. The All-Star break is three weeks away. And today, two of the worst teams in the National League open a three-game series, one of them expected, one of them definitely not expected.

The Nationals, as much as everyone would’ve liked to believe, remain at the bottom of the NL East, a position they have taken firm control over while dropping 14 of their last 18 games. But the Cardinals were not supposed to be at the bottom of the NL Central, owners of a 29-43 record this deep into the season.

Suffice it to say, both teams will enter this series feeling like they need to win two of three to right their respective ships. Only one can prevail. For the Nats to do it, they’re simply going to have to start scoring more runs. They’re averaging only 3.2 runs over their last 13 games, with a .275 on-base percentage and .367 slugging percentage. It’s tough to win games like that. Perhaps they can generate some offense (and especially be patient) against St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty, who has issued a league-high 43 walks in 73 2/3 innings.

Josiah Gray led the league in walks last season, and though it has remained an issue this year, he stepped up big-time with zero free passes in a seven-inning start last week in Houston. Gray did give up four runs, but he was pleased with his process throughout that game (if not the results themselves).

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 4:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 88 degrees, wind 11 mph right field to left field

It was something of a throwaway line from Davey Martinez during a postgame press conference that didn’t include many bright spots.

Minutes after his Nationals lost for the 14th time in 18 games overall, the sixth straight time against the Marlins, Martinez was mentioning Lane Thomas’ third-inning homer (which ultimately accounted for all of the team’s runs during the 4-2 loss) and how it was just the latest in an ongoing string of big hits by the starting right fielder.

“We talk about all these guys for the All-Star Game, right now Lane Thomas is possibly a guy that could make the All-Star team for us,” Martinez said. “He’s played that well.”

Lane Thomas, All-Star? It’s not a crazy thought.

Sunday’s performance left Thomas sporting a .287 batting average, 11 homers, 35 RBIs and an .822 OPS. That final number ranks 14th among all National League outfielders, so it’s not exactly elite. But it is solid, it’s far and away the best mark among all Nats regulars and it continues to rise.

The ball made a loud sound off Stone Garrett’s bat, a 105-mph bullet, and headed in the air toward deep left-center. A Father’s Day crowd of 25,339 at Nationals Park that had little reason to get excited most of the afternoon briefly rose with the kind of anticipation you’d expect from such loud contact at a big moment in a ballgame.

And then everyone slinked back into their seats as Jonathan Davis hauled in the ball at the warning track to end the bottom of the sixth, the Nationals still trailing the Marlins by two runs. Garrett, who came about 20 feet shy of giving his team the lead, slammed his helmet in frustration as he arrived at first base.

"I thought it was gone off the bat," teammate Lane Thomas said. "I think he did, too."

"We thought once he hit it," manager Davey Martinez said, "it was going to be a different ballgame."

The feeling of frustration was mutual throughout the ballpark as the Nats slogged their way through yet another loss to the division foe that somehow has become their white whale.

When the Nationals embarked on a 16-games-in-16-days stretch earlier this week, Davey Martinez began to map out scheduled days off for various members of his everyday lineup. The idea: Make sure everyone gets a break at some point, hopefully on a day when the pitching matchup is conducive to it.

So, Luis García sat Wednesday against Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. Joey Meneses sat Thursday against Houston right-hander Christian Javier. Keibert Ruiz sat Saturday against Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett. And today, Martinez planned to sit both Dominic Smith and CJ Abrams against Miami lefty Jesús Luzardo … until circumstances forced a late change.

“I planned these probably a week ago,” Martinez said. “We’ve had a tough go, all the day games, traveling. I wanted to try to give these guys some days off.”

Smith was due to sit for only the second time in 46 games, but the second time in eight days. In both cases, Michael Chavis was set to make the start at first base in his place, with Meneses remaining as designated hitter.

That plan, however, changed about an hour before first pitch when Jeimer Candelario was scratched from the lineup with a sore right thumb. The veteran third baseman is still available to pinch-hit, according to the Nationals.

The Nationals keep finding themselves in this position, needing a win to avoid a series sweep. This is actually the fifth time in their last six series they’ve lost the opening two games to an opponent. In three of the previous cases (Dodgers, Braves, Astros) they found a way to salvage a win in the finale. They never had a chance to do it in the fourth series, because the finale against the Diamondbacks was postponed due to hazardous air quality. (We’ll see how Thursday’s makeup game shakes out.)

So if the pattern holds true, the Nats will actually beat the Marlins this afternoon and avoid the sweep. Then again, they still haven’t beaten the Marlins this season in five tries, having been swept in Miami last month and now finding themselves in danger of it happening again today.

We’ve talked a lot about pitching throughout this rough stretch, but let’s not give the lineup a free pass. The Nationals have averaged only 3.3 runs, 8.2 hits and a paltry 1.4 walks over their last 12 games (of which they’ve won only two). So they’ve got to do a better job making Jesús Luzardo work today. The long-ago Nats prospect continues to be an enigma: Over his last six starts, he’s alternated between allowing five or more runs or only one run (including once against the Nats).

Patrick Corbin gets the start on the other side. He was solid against the Astros, allowing only two runs over five innings, though he did issue a whopping five walks. If he can hold Miami in check, Davey Martinez should be able to turn to his top relievers today.

Update: Jeimer Candelario was a late scratch from the lineup for undisclosed reasons. Michael Chavis will slide over to third base, and Dominic Smith (who was supposed to sit today) will start at first base.

It takes a lot for the Nationals to beat the Marlins these days. Actually, no one can say for sure what it takes to beat the Marlins this season, because they’ve now had five opportunities to do it and have yet to emerge victorious.

You would think, though, most paths to success would include clutch hitting and quality relief pitching. The Nats got neither of those during today’s frustrating 5-2 loss to Miami.

A lineup that gave itself only a few chances to drive in runs did so only twice, stranding a runner in scoring position in three different innings. And Davey Martinez, whose bullpen was without the services of several arms typically used in high-leverage spots, watched as failed starter-turned-reliever Chad Kuhl made a mess of the decisive seventh inning and Rule 5 pick Thaddeus Ward surrendered two big insurance runs in the top of the ninth to put the game out of reach.

So it was the Nationals lost yet again to their plucky division rivals from South Beach. They are now 0-5 against them this season despite being outscored by only eight runs in total. And they’re an unfathomable 4-20 dating back to the start of the 2022 season.

"The thing is, it's almost like we've got to play perfectly," Martinez said. "And that's tough to do every night. If we don't chase, do some other things, the outcome might be a little better. We've got to keep playing hard. Get on base for the next guy. When we do that, we actually score a few runs."

When looking for reasons to explain the Nationals’ more competitive play early this season, it was easy to point to the club’s improved defense as a significant factor.

After rating as the majors’ worst defensive team in 2022, the Nats ended April ranked 22nd with minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s far from excellent play in the field, but it did represent real improvement from the previous year.

When they take the field this afternoon, though, the Nationals find themselves back at the bottom of the list. They entered the day with minus-29 DRS, tied with the Athletics for worst in the sport.

Defensive metrics, of course, remain far from a perfect measurement of actual defensive play. But the eye test also seems to suggest the team’s performance has regressed in this area over the last month or so.

“I still feel like we’re playing pretty good defense,” manager Davey Martinez insisted today. “Look, you’ve got to remember we’ve got two guys that are really young in the middle of the field, and it’s going to be part of the process. But I think overall they’re doing well.”

The Nationals, as you may have heard by now, just can’t beat the Marlins. Friday night’s 6-5 loss left them 0-4 this season against Miami and a staggering 4-19 over the last two seasons. How is that possible? Credit to the Marlins, who to be sure are an improved team with a good pitching staff. But that’s an absurd winning percentage against any opponent, no matter how good.

The Nats will try to reverse that trend this afternoon in the second game of the weekend series. They’ll have Jake Irvin back on the mound after a 10-day layoff. Thanks to an off-day at the beginning of the week, the team decided to skip over Irvin’s turn in the rotation and give the rookie a chance to rest and work on some things in the bullpen. He was quite excited about the way his last throwing session went. We’ll see if that actually translates into positive results in today’s game.

The Marlins send left-hander Braxton Garrett to the mound, so Davey Martinez has his right-handed-heavy lineup in there. That includes Stone Garrett, now officially part of a left field platoon with Corey Dickerson. And it includes Riley Adams, who gets the start behind the plate while Keibert Ruiz gets the day off.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. MIAMI MARLINS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 4:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees, wind 16 mph in from left field

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
2B Luis García
3B Jeimer Candelario
DH Joey Meneses
LF Stone Garrett
1B Dominic Smith
C Riley Adams
CF Victor Robles
SS CJ Abrams

HOUSTON – It seems hard to believe given his offensive struggles the last three seasons, but Victor Robles’ pending return should be a real boon to the Nationals’ offensive fortunes.

Robles, out since May 7 with a back injury, appears to be in the final stages of a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester and could be activated this weekend, perhaps even in time for tonight’s series opener against the Marlins at Nationals Park.

Will the 26-year-old center fielder with a career .670 OPS really make much positive difference at the plate? If he performs anything like he did prior to suffering the injury while sliding into second base in Arizona, yes.

Robles was making some real strides through the season’s first month-plus. It’s not just his .292 batting average and .388 on-base percentage, impressive as those are. It’s his approach at the plate, a vast improvement from 2020-22.

Robles has always been one of the freest swingers in baseball, often to his detriment. His strikeout rate the last three seasons was a lofty 25.1 percent, his walk rate a scant 6.1 percent that plummeted to 4.2 percent in 2022.

HOUSTON – For 26 innings over three agonizing nights, the Nationals tried like might to hit a baseball high and far at the home run haven that is Minute Maid Park. For 26 innings, they could not get anything to clear the fence.

And then, at last, in the 27th inning of this series against the Astros, Keibert Ruiz finally broke through and delivered the big blast his team had so desired all week.

But because Hunter Harvey couldn't record the 27th out without surrendering the tying run, the series was extended to a 28th inning and the Nats found themselves in extras for the first time this season.

And thanks to some long-awaited offensive execution by several members of the lineup, they emerged at the end of the night with a well-deserved 4-1 victory over the defending World Series champions.

"It always feels good to win," Ruiz said. "I feel really good for the team. We've been playing really good, coming from behind. We lost yesterday, but we've come from behind and we've been playing better. Don't give up, keep the head up and keep playing hard."

HOUSTON – It was easily forgotten, because of what transpired moments later, but prior to the controversial ending of Wednesday night’s game, the Nationals put themselves in an especially disadvantageous position when they allowed Kyle Tucker to steal third off them without even attempting to throw him out.

Tucker, leading off second base with one out in the bottom of the ninth of what was at that point a tie game, took off for third as Hunter Harvey delivered his pitch to the plate and slid in safely as catcher Keibert Ruiz could do nothing but watch from his position.

It may not have mattered, because Harvey proceeded to walk Corey Julks and then surrendered the grounder by Jake Meyers that scored the winning run when Meyers wasn’t called for interfering with Ruiz’s throw to first. But it stuck with manager Davey Martinez, who has grown tired of seeing that type of play happen against his team over and over this season.

“It definitely matters,” Martinez said. “In a situation like that … we’ve got to keep the guy on first base or second base, wherever he may be.”

This has become a disturbing, regular pattern for the Nationals, who enter tonight’s game having surrendered 67 stolen bases (tied for third-most in the majors) while throwing out only 15 runners. The problem is more acute in late innings, with Harvey, Kyle Finnegan, Mason Thompson, Carl Edwards Jr. and Andrés Machado having combined to allow 20-of-22 opposing runners successfully steal of them.

HOUSTON – Tonight is the 15th scheduled game of a stretch that has seen the Nationals play nothing but contenders, including some of the best teams in baseball. It promised to be a difficult stretch, and it most certainly has proven to be that. They enter tonight’s finale at Minute Maid Park with a 3-10 record against the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Braves and Astros. (They of course didn't play one game vs. Arizona due to hazardous air quality in D.C.)

The schedule eases up now, but before that happens the Nats would love to emerge from this series with at least one win over the defending World Series champions. They’ll need to score some runs prior to the top of the ninth, you’d think, but the challenge again isn’t an easy one facing Christian Javier. The 26-year-old right-hander is 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 starts, though he did give up four runs on seven hits and three walks during a five-inning no-decision against the Guardians last week.

As was the case for Josiah Gray on Wednesday night, MacKenzie Gore faces his own challenge in the form of a potent Houston lineup that gets shortstop Jeremy Peña back tonight. Gore had a rough one in his last start in Atlanta, giving up five runs in five innings, including a pair of homers. He’ll have to keep an Astros team that has launched six homers so far in this series in the park tonight.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS at HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: Minute Maid Park
Gametime: 8:10 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Indoors

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
2B Luis García
3B Jeimer Candelario
DH Corey Dickerson
C Keibert Ruiz
1B Dominic Smith
LF Stone Garrett
SS CJ Abrams
CF Alex Call

HOUSTON – The ninth inning of Wednesday night’s game at Minute Maid Park featured enough drama and twists and turns to capture every ounce of attention afforded the Astros’ 5-4 victory over the Nationals.

It also rendered everything that happened prior to the final inning moot, even though there were a few significant developments throughout the bulk of this game. Most notably, Josiah Gray’s seven-inning start and another new pitch he unveiled along the way.

Gray didn’t enjoy anything close to his best results of the season, charged with four earned runs thanks to a two-run double in the first and back-to-back homers surrendered in the fourth. But the right-hander did do a lot of things well, better than he had for much of the season to date.

He didn’t issue a walk for the first time since Aug. 10, 2022 against the Cubs. He threw 66 of his 95 pitches for strikes. He completed seven innings for only the third time this year.

For those reasons, Gray still viewed this as a positive outing, despite the fact he was due to take the loss until his teammates rallied in the top of the ninth.

HOUSTON – That tonight's game, with the Nationals back at Minute Maid Park for the first time since the 2019 World Series, would end the way it did defied all common sense and logic. How could the baseball gods concoct such a scenario – a potential obstruction call on a bang-bang play at first base – with a game between these two teams in this ballpark, and have that call yet again go against Davey Martinez's club? Was this some kind of cruel cosmic joke?

It was not. It was all too real, and it cost the Nats in a way none of the previous similar plays that have befallen them did. This one ended the game. This one gave the Astros a 5-4 walk-off victory moments after the visitors had staged a dramatic, three-run rally to tie the game in the top of the ninth.

And this one left Martinez as steamed as he's ever been at the end of a loss.

"I'm over this play!" the sixth-year manager bellowed as he held up a just-printed piece of paper showing a still frame of Houston's Jake Meyers clearly running in fair territory toward first base as catcher Keibert Ruiz prepared to make a throw from the plate that would hit Meyers' helmet and Michael Chavis' glove right as he arrived at the bag. "Seriously, they need to fix the rule. If this is what the umpires see, as he's running down the line? I'm tired of it. I'm tired of it. Fix it! We lost the game, and (plate umpire Jeremy Riggs) had nothing to say about it, because he can't make the right call. Brutal! Brutal!"

In the exact location where Trea Turner infamously was called for obstruction in Game 6 of the World Series, leading to Martinez's ejection, Meyers was not called for it tonight. As the ball squirted away from Chavis, José Abreu waltzed home with the winning run as the crowd of 39,796 rejoiced, fireworks exploded overhead and Martinez stormed out of the dugout to accost Riggs.

HOUSTON – Upon learning the Nationals were skipping his turn in the rotation so he could take a physical and mental break, Jake Irvin almost didn’t know what to do with himself. The rookie right-hander had grown so accustomed to the regimented, five-day schedule for starters since arriving in the big leagues last month, the idea of a layoff for non-injury reasons was quite foreign to him.

Now that he’s had more than a week of rest, though, Irvin has come to understand how valuable it was in the wake of everything that came before.

“Making your debut and going through the whirlwind of the first month in the big leagues is something you can’t really explain,” he said. “It’s something you go through once and hopefully get your feet wet. I’ve taken this time to kind of reflect on what’s happened so far, and how you can move forward as best as possible. Not only does it give the body a chance to reset, but it really gives your mind a chance to reset and move forward and grow.”

The Nationals took advantage of Monday’s scheduled off-day to skip over Irvin’s spot in the rotation. Patrick Corbin went ahead and started Tuesday’s series opener against the Astros on normal rest, and Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore will follow to round out this series.

Irvin, who last pitched June 6 against the Diamondbacks, is likely to return to the mound either Friday or Saturday against the Marlins. Manager Davey Martinez said he planned to meet with pitching coach Jim Hickey today to settle on a plan.

HOUSTON – Josiah Gray enters tonight’s start with a 3.00 ERA, which is quite good. Good enough to rank sixth in the National League, in fact. His 1.403 WHIP, however, is worse than it was in either of the last two seasons. So, how do we reconcile those two facts?

Gray’s peripheral numbers aren’t great because he’s walking a lot of batters (4.6 per nine innings). But he’s not giving up runs because he’s managing to get outs when he needs to (opponents are batting and slugging .145 against him with runners in scoring position) and he’s avoided the home run (1.0 per nine innings, down from 2.3 last season). Can he keep that up? We shall see, but the test tonight against the Astros is a good one for the young right-hander.

A little run support wouldn’t hurt, either. After an uptick in production that included 5.4 runs per game from May 15-June 2, the Nationals are averaging only 3.1 over their last eight games. Is it any wonder they’ve lost seven of those games?

WASHINGTON NATIONALS at HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: Minute Maid Park
Gametime: 8:10 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Indoors

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
3B Jeimer Candelario
DH Joey Meneses
LF Stone Garrett
C Keibert Ruiz
2B Ildemaro Vargas
1B Dominic Smith
CF Alex Call
SS CJ Abrams

HOUSTON – There was what appeared to be a bounceback performance 2 1/2 weeks ago in Kansas City, prompting the question: Was Mason Thompson back?

The answer, at that time: No, he wasn’t. The Nationals reliever followed up an encouraging, two-scoreless-inning appearance May 27 against the Royals with a three-run meltdown three days later at Dodger Stadium.

So take this with a grain of salt. But after another dominant performance Tuesday night during the Nats’ 6-1 loss to the Astros, Thompson continued a more recent trend that suggests he may actually be coming out of his long funk at last.

“Absolutely, he’s getting back,” manager Davey Martinez insisted.

What did Thompson do in this game to stand out? He faced three batters in the bottom of the sixth and proceeded to retire the side, inducing a grounder to short and then back-to-back strikeouts of Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers.