Can Rainey reward Nats for sticking with him through struggles?

PLAYER REVIEW: TANNER RAINEY

Age on Opening Day 2025: 32

How acquired: Traded from Reds for Tanner Roark, December 2018

MLB service time: 5 years, 127 days

2024 salary: $1.5 million

Contract status: Arbitration-eligible, free agent in 2026

2024 stats: 0-0, 4.76 ERA, 50 G, 0 SV, 51 IP, 47 H, 28 R, 27 ER, 8 HR, 29 BB, 44 SO, 4 HBP, 1.490 WHIP, 85 ERA+, 5.42 FIP, 0.1 bWAR, -0.2 fWAR

Quotable: “We took what we saw from him before the injury and knew that sometimes these Tommy Johns – they say in a year and a half, you’re fully recovered – it takes a little longer than that. With Rainey, because of the way his mechanics were, we wanted to make sure we gave him enough opportunity to go out there and try to work himself back. And I’m glad we did. He’s throwing the ball better. His velo has bumped up a tick. His slider shape has been a lot better. He’s done well.” – Davey Martinez

2024 analysis: Tanner Rainey made it back from Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 season. That was supposed to bring the right-hander and the Nationals some peace of mind entering 2024. It didn’t quite work out that way, because his performance during the first few months of the season brought anything but peace of mind.

With diminished velocity and who-knows-where-the-next-one-will-go command, Rainey labored through April with an ERA that eventually exceeded 10.00. That prompted manager Davey Martinez to bury him in the bullpen to an extent rarely seen before. Rainey made a grand total of four appearances during a 33-game stretch from May 1-June 2, with one layoff of 12 days and another of 15 days, despite the fact he was healthy and available the entire time.

At some point, it seemed fair to question why the Nationals were sticking with Rainey. Yes, he was out of options, but what were the odds another team would claim him off waivers if he was designated for assignment? Whatever their reason, the Nats did stick with one of the few remaining members of the 2019 World Series roster and gave him time to figure things out.

And to his credit, Rainey did figure it out. His velocity climbed as the season progressed, and his command improved. He still didn’t pitch in any situations of real consequence, but over the final two months he delivered a 2.14 ERA and 1.000 WHIP, striking out more than a batter per inning. Patience paid off, and he was able to head home for the winter feeling a whole lot better about himself.

2025 outlook: With Patrick Corbin’s contract finally expired and Victor Robles now employed by the Mariners, Rainey is the last remaining member of the 2019 big league roster still playing for the Nationals. Who would’ve guessed that would come to fruition? This is his final year under club control, though, so the club had better hope all the patience it afforded the righty was worth it and he can deliver one more quality season for them.

The signs were certainly more encouraging by season’s end than they were earlier on, but let’s be clear: Rainey still hasn’t proven he can be successful in meaningful situations. He made 50 appearances without taking either a win or a loss, something no big league reliever had done since the White Sox’s Aaron Bummer and the Diamondbacks’ T.J. McFarland in 2019. According to Baseball-Reference, 225 of the 231 plate appearances Rainey faced this year came in low leverage situations, with one coming in a medium leverage spot and five coming in high leverage scenarios.

So for this to be worth it, the Nationals have to finally give Rainey a chance to pitch in at least moderately important situations. He doesn’t have to be part of their so-called “A bullpen” entering the season, but Martinez needs to be able to ask him to pitch, say, the sixth or seventh inning in a two-run game. If he proves he can perform well in those spots, he can ultimately prove to be a valuable member of this relief corps for one more season.