Steve Mears: Is it time for the Nationals to tweak their lineup?

Is it time to rearrange the lineup to thwart the competition? The Nationals have been stacking left-handed hitters Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper for months. Both players hit left-handed pitchers well. Harper actually has a higher slugging percentage (eight points) against left-handed pitchers versus the right-handed pitchers, but his on-base-percentage is 53 points lower against left-handers.

Would the lineup do better putting Anthony Rendon between Murphy and Harper to take advantage of the lefty specialist? Some feel that you should not change what is working. "Could this work better?" is the logical response.

On top of that, should the Nationals shape the lineup to maximize all the facets of the game between offense, defense and baserunning?

At first base, Murphy has a FanGraphs UZR rating of 0.6 while his second base UZR is a minus-6.5. The key is in the range ratings, which at second base have Murphy at minus-6.8 and at first base rate him at 0.9. Murphy is above-average at first base in range and well below average at second base. Contrast that to Ryan Zimmerman, who only has a range rating of 0.1 at first base and a 1.2 UZR. Keep in mind that UZR is cumulative, where the UZR statistics are relative to the number of innings played at the position.

Murphy's best defensive position is clearly first base, which is currently occupied by Zimmerman, who is slashing .213/.269/.368 with a .170 batting average with runners in scoring position. Is it time to move Murphy to his best position then look at the other options like Trea Turner, who is a plus defender at second base and has improved at there, with one of the best small sample size range ratings at a 3.9 in his career in only 280 2/3 innings with a 4.5 UZR.

If Turner was playing second base, that would leave a large void in center field. Who could Dusty Baker plug in there? Ben Revere is not exactly hitting well with bases empty, but he does hit well with runners on base. With men on base (101 at-bats), Revere is slashing .287/.333/.386. Revere has been hitting pitchers well out of the stretch. In a small sample size (12 games), Revere has a .286 batting average batting second in the batting order.

This makes for an interesting statistical conversation, as Revere is a slightly below league average defender when you factor in his arm strength as a negative, but overall the defense is much better with Murphy at first, Turner at second and Revere in center field. Baserunning improves also, and taking Revere out of the leadoff spot and putting him into the two-hole could be just what has been working statistically.

Steve Mears blogs about the Nationals for Talk Nats. Follow the blog on Twitter: @TalkNats2. His thoughts on the Nationals will appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.




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