Cedric Mullins raised the bar to such impressive heights in 2021 with his first All-Star selection and Silver Slugger award, and becoming the first 30/30 player in Orioles history, that some regression the next summer was bound to happen. He became a tough act to follow. Blame it on himself.

Still productive at the plate, still dangerous on the basepaths and outstanding in the field, but a notch below his overall production.

Mullins established career highs with 64 RBIs and 34 steals. His 32 doubles were just five fewer than in the previous summer, and his 89 runs were only two short. He didn't commit an error and was a finalist for a Rawlings Gold Glove. But his average dropped from .291 to .258 and his OPS from .878 to .721.

Taking the usual offseason self-inventory has led Mullins to one particular area of his game. The decline versus left-handed pitching.

Mullins abandoned switch-hitting two years ago, surrendering to his poor splits and leaving the right side of the batter's box, and slashed .277/.337/.451 against southpaws. But he slashed .209/.265/.313 in 2022, compared to .279/.340/.441 against right-handers.

So close to the start of spring training, so insecure about how much I’m willing to guarantee about the 2023 Orioles.

They won’t move out of Baltimore during the season. Bet the house on it.

They won’t change managers. They won’t change mascots. They won’t change Boog’s BBQ into a vegan concession stand.

But what about the team itself prior to opening day? Here are a dozen:

Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are locks for the rotation.
One signed for $10 million and the other came in a trade that cost infield prospect Darell Hernaiz and is a needed left-hander. Gibson could be the opening day starter in Boston if the Orioles want a right-hander at Fenway Park. The Orioles expect Grayson Rodriguez to break camp in the rotation. They are openly rooting for it. But I can’t issue an absolute guarantee. At least, not at the Gibson/Irvin level.

Four more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers are due at the spring training complex in Sarasota. Where has the time gone?

The mailbag already is in the best shape of its life. Bulky but strong enough to handle the extra weight.

You know the routine. You ask, I answer, you trust that I’m in the know, I trust that you won’t fact-check me. And we have our latest sequel to the beloved original.

Please excuse the reckless disregard for editing. We’re informal here. Take off your shoes, unzip your pants. No one is judging you.

We serve brevity by the buckets. You want more clarity? See an optometrist.

The volatile nature of a major league bullpen can push teams out of their comfort zone and into pure survival mode. Doesn’t matter how good it was in past seasons. Relievers are fickle in nature. They can carry you one summer and let you down the next. Be the pulse and break your heart.

The Orioles departed their camp in 2022 hopeful, but far from certain, that they’d get the necessary support from Félix Bautista, Bryan Baker, Cionel Pérez, Joey Krehbiel and Keegan Akin. They had seen glimpses from Dillon Tate, but nothing that sustained over a full season. They were working to reinvent Jorge López after his failures as a starter.

What resulted was a 3.49 ERA that ranked ninth in the majors and enabled the Orioles to post their first winning record in six years. It instantly made Brandon Hyde a better manager, and a more relaxed one. It meant everything.

Baker had the strongest finish, with his last 11 appearances scoreless over 12 1/3 innings. He flourished when others faded, an unexpected development with only one major league outing prior to joining the Orioles.

The right-hander posted a 2.13 ERA in his final 40 games, compared to a 5.60 ERA in the first 26, which included two starts that fouled up his numbers. The ERA was 1.82 in the last 22 games.

The Orioles are bringing back seven of their minor league managers in the same roles in 2023, but also replacing and relocating several coaches.

Buck Britton will begin his second season as manager at Triple-A Norfolk after top prospects Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson graduated to the majors last summer. Kyle Moore returns to Double-A Bowie, Roberto Mercado to High-A Aberdeen, Felipe Rojas Alou Jr. to Single-A Delmarva, Christian Frias to the Florida Complex League Orioles, and Chris Madera and Elbis Morel to the two Dominican Summer League entries.

Matt Packer shifts to complex coordinator of instruction after managing in the FCL last season. The Orioles are fielding one FCL team this year. They have a sufficient number of players, but only one game scheduled.

Among the new hires are Sherman Johnson as Bowie’s hitting coach and Austin Meine as Aberdeen pitching coach.

Johnson, who replaces Branden Becker, appeared in 10 game with the Angels in 2018 – going hitless in 11 plate appearances – and posted a .362 on-base percentage in nine minor league seasons that included stints in the Reds (2019) and Twins (2021) systems. He spent last year with independent Kane County.

Félix Bautista didn’t know whether the Orioles would put him on the 40-man roster to protect him from a 2021 Rule 5 draft that never happened. He didn’t know whether he’d break camp with the team. So many uncertainties that have been shed like unwanted pounds.

Bautista became a dominant set-up man and closer as a 27-year-old rookie, and one of the easiest calls to make as spring training nears is his status in the bullpen. He’s the ninth-inning guy. Others can vie for the role when he isn’t available.

The only sour note was his finish. Bautista became less effective and available down the stretch due to arm fatigue, and he went on the injured list Oct. 3 with left knee discomfort.

The offseason is devoted in part to finding ways to build endurance and stay strong, though exposure to a first major league season should simplify the task.

“It’s a lot of focused, hard work, trying to focus on getting my shoulder, and my legs specifically, stronger and make sure there’s no lingering issues throughout the season,” he said via interpreter Brandon Quinones.

Players are heading down to Sarasota ahead of the designated report dates for spring training, and not just the five hitting prospects attending the development camp that began yesterday. Gunnar Henderson’s flight landed two days ago. The five Orioles participating in the World Baseball Classic – outfielders Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, pitchers Dean Kremer and Dillon Tate, and infielder Ramón Urías – will arrive early so they can leave camp early.

Rather than getting us closer to identifying the 26-man roster for opening day, it feels like the Birdland Caravan has created more confusion over its composition.

DL Hall may not fit in the mock bullpens, with executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias suggesting that the left-hander could be sent down if unable to make the rotation in spring training.

“That part hasn’t been decided,” Elias said. “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.”

We knew that Hall would arrive in camp as a starter and be stretched out, that the Orioles would keep developing him to occupy a spot in the rotation, but the ‘pen seemed like a solid and logical alternative following his 10 appearances last September. A weapon for the later innings.

The Orioles began their latest development camp this morning at the Ed Smith Stadium complex, with five of their top prospects working out until Feb. 14.

Outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad and infielders Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby are spring training invites receiving an opportunity to meet early with the major league staff and instructors.

Manager Brandon Hyde, co-hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte, offensive strategy coach Cody Asche and strength and conditioning coach Trey Wiedman will be joined by Triple-A Norfolk manager Buck Britton, coordinator of instruction Jeff Kunkel, minor league hitting coach Brink Ambler and High-A Aberdeen development coach Ryan Goll.

Ambler served as Single-A Delmarva’s hitting coach in 2022 after his promotion from minors technology coordinator.

MLB Pipeline ranks Holliday as the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect after they selected him with the first overall pick in last year’s draft. Cowser is fourth, Mayo seventh, Kjerstad ninth and Norby 11^th.

Mike Elias’ choice of word in August, within the infamous “liftoff” quote, caused some confusion regarding payroll flexibility, but it was the first true indicator that he was moving past the rebuild stage and eyeing a much grander one.

Elias told the assembled media at the warehouse Friday morning that the rebuild was over, that it was “behind us.”

That’s liftoff. Different phrasing but the same positive message.  

The Orioles weren’t using up most of their energy on addressing the farm system and creating the talent pipeline that would make them annual contenders. Wins would begin to matter again. The standings would begin to matter again beyond how it influences draft status.

The club is talking about the playoffs, and to anyone who will listen. These aren’t just internal conversations.

SALISBURY - Ryan Mountcastle couldn’t resist. The temptation got the best of him.

Mountcastle had to check out the left field fence at Camden Yards this week while in town for the Birdland Caravan, knowing that it hadn't changed. Giving it another chance to torment him.

“We were up there. It looked about the same,” Mountcastle said yesterday before posing for photos with fans and tending bar at Evolution Craft Brewing in Salisbury.

With his familiar boyish grin, Mountcastle said, “You see all these other parks moving it in, and I guess we’re moving it out. It is what it is.”

The dimensions will be friendlier to the hitters at Ed Smith Stadium, where the Orioles begin spring training in a few weeks.

The Orioles sent out their list of non-roster invites to spring training yesterday with the understanding that other names could appear later. Thirty wasn’t a set number. There’s always room for Jell-O and more lockers at the Ed Smith Stadium complex.

Within hours, left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. He, too, will be in Sarasota, giving the Orioles 38 pitchers in camp, including 12 of the non-roster variety.

The possibility still exists that the Orioles make a waiver claim, sign a free agent or consummate another trade. They aren’t shutting down.

“We’re still working on stuff,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said yesterday during a Q&A with fans at Wilde Lake High School.

Could be pitching, an infielder or an outfielder. And it could be a major league contract.

The Orioles broke camp last spring with a 28-man roster after Major League Baseball and the union approved its expansion through May 1, one of the changes caused by the lockout. Fifteen of those players weren’t with the club on 2021 opening day: pitchers Jordan Lyles, Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez, Bryan Baker, Keegan Akin, Joey Krehbiel and Mike Baumann, infielders Kelvin Gutiérrez, Rougned Odor, Jorge Mateo and Chris Owings, outfielders Ryan McKenna and DJ Stewart, and catchers Robinson Chirinos and Anthony Bemboom.

Bautista, Pérez, Mateo, McKenna, Baker, Krehbiel, Akin, Baumann and Bemboom remain in the organization, and the others are with new teams or waiting to sign.

Lyles joined the Royals on a two-year, $17 million deal. Odor and Chirinos also made it through the entire season with the Orioles but are major league free agents.

At least a dozen players could be on the charter to Boston who weren’t with the Orioles last opening day: Pitchers Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Mychal Givens, DL Hall and Austin Voth, infielders Gunnar Henderson, Adam Frazier and Terrin Vavra, outfielder Kyle Stowers and catcher James McCann.

Rule 5 selection Andrew Politi will try to squeeze into the bullpen. At least one of the non-roster players - a group that includes first baseman Lewin Díaz and first basemen/outfielders Ryan O’Hearn and Franchy Cordero - will try to be counted among the opening day newcomers with the Orioles.

I wrote Thursday that a week had passed since the Orioles made their last transaction, and the most recent move impacting the 40-man roster came Jan. 11 with the acquisition of left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez from the Red Sox.

And then what happened?

Austin Voth avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $1.85 million contract that included a team option for 2024. A few hours later, the Orioles announced their acquisition of left-hander Cole Irvin from the Athletics, which caused Hernandez to be designated for assignment.

Irvin’s video call with the media was held Friday morning, and shortly after that the Orioles announced that they signed first baseman Curtis Terry to a minor league contract.

The sounds of silence were shattered.

The Orioles ventured into the offseason with the stated goal of finding veteran starting pitching to supplement a collection of younger, promising arms with varying degrees of major league success, none of it sustained for significant periods. John Means is the undisputed ace but shelved by reconstructive surgery on his left elbow that could sideline him for the first half. The others showed flashes of becoming established in the rotation, some a little brighter than others.

Kyle Gibson signed a $10 million contract for 2023 and left-hander Cole Irvin was acquired in a trade with the Athletics, providing four years of team control and another consumer of innings. Perhaps a slight deviation from the club’s initial vision of how the free agent market would play out, though it wasn’t expressed publicly in exact terms.

The second tier wasn’t as much of a bargain as perceived early in the process, but the Orioles eventually were able to land their veterans, and at a much lower cost. Irvin hasn’t reached his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Never assume that the front office is done, even though the numbers – and these are available to the media – show an overflow of starters for a five-man rotation and could flood the bullpen.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias also prioritized left-handed bats for first base, second base and the corner outfielder. Players who also could contribute as the designated hitter.

The immediate reaction to yesterday’s Cole Irvin trade centered on whether he could start for the Orioles on opening day and how his arrival impacted the other rotation candidates.

All of this is according to an industry source with direct knowledge of my mind.

Also, can we confidently say now that the search is over – a nod to “Survivor” – and the Orioles relinquished interest in Michael Wacha and every other starter?

Space is really tight. They might have to build an addition onto the rotation. But never turn away from the spring waiver wire.

The Orioles don’t own a true No. 1 starter with John Means unavailable until probably June or July. Irvin doesn’t qualify, which appears to set up an intense and fascinating camp battle.

The Orioles succeeded today in finding a starting pitcher for their unsettled rotation, consummating a trade after failing to reach terms with a free agent.

Left-hander Cole Irvin and minor league pitcher Kyle Virbitsky were acquired from the Athletics for Single-A infielder Darell Hernaiz. Lefty reliever Darwinzon Hernandez was designated for assignment to make room for Irvin on the 40-man roster.

Irvin, who turns 29 on Tuesday, could be the only left-hander in the Orioles rotation on opening day with John Means recovering from Tommy John surgery and DL Hall a consideration for the bullpen. He’s made 62 starts over the past two seasons and posted a cumulative 4.11 ERA in 359 1/3 innings, with 1.8 walks and 6.4 strikeouts per nine frames in 2022.

The Orioles get more than durability with Irvin, who registered a career-low 3.98 ERA and 1.160 WHIP last year in 30 starts. He’s under team control through 2026.

The Phillies were the third team to draft Irvin, landing him in the fifth round in 2016 out of the University of Oregon. The Athletics acquired him in a cash deal on Jan. 30, 2021.

The Orioles finished their arbitration business today and proved again that the file-and-go approach has its exceptions.

Pitcher Austin Voth agreed to terms on a 2023 contract that also includes a club option for 2024. He’s the last of the six arbitration-eligible players to receive a new deal.

Terms weren’t immediately available. Voth sought $2 million after the sides exchanged figures on Jan. 13, and the club offered $1.7 million.

Voth, 30, is also eligible for arbitration next winter unless the Orioles pick up the option.

The Orioles claimed Voth off waivers from the Nationals on June 7 and it wasn’t viewed within the industry as an impact move. Voth was out of options, and he ran out of chances in D.C. after posting a 10.13 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in 19 relief appearances in 2022.

A week has passed since the Orioles made their last transaction, signing reliever Reed Garrett to a minor league contract. The 40-man roster hasn’t been impacted since they acquired left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez from the Red Sox for cash considerations on Jan. 11 and designated first baseman Lewin Díaz for assignment.

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training on Feb. 15. The clock on the countdown is ticking louder. Some teams have declared that they’re unlikely to make any other moves, but the Orioles keep trying to find another veteran starting pitcher.

“We’re definitely not going to rest in terms of improving this roster before we leave for Sarasota,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said during Friday’s interview on 105.7 The Fan, “and even after we’re in Sarasota, sometimes things happen.”

They often happen.

Infielder Chris Owings, pitchers Chris Ellis and Conner Greene and catcher Beau Taylor were signed to minor league deals last March after the media arrived in Sarasota. Nothing impactful, as it turned out.

Cedric Mullins will participate in the upcoming Orioles caravan, added to the list on Jan. 10, and report early to spring training in Sarasota before leaving camp to join Team USA at the World Baseball Classic.

The Orioles aren’t done trying to make other moves to set their opening day roster, but Mullins is certain to roam center field and sit atop the order.

What’s new to Mullins is ramping up for WBC competition while leaving behind most of his teammates. Reliever Dillon Tate also was chosen for Team USA.

“It’s going to be awesome. It’s a huge honor to be a part of this,” Mullins said this week on MLB Network Radio.

“The last one being back in 2017, so a decent amount of time has passed. COVID kind of got in the way of that, as well, so it’s awesome to be amongst this group. Not only being competitive out there, but you’re preparing for the season, as well. It’s definitely going to be an experience.”

Nothing has changed with the Orioles rotation as we enter a new week. The same group of candidates for five spots, led by … we don’t know.

The thought of an open competition really intrigues. Then again, so does a trade for a legitimate No. 1 starter, but don't leave a candle burning for Miami's Pablo López, because he's headed to the Twins.

Nothing on the free agent market is going to settle the issue. Michael Wacha isn’t the answer, but he’s been successful between stops on the injured list. He’d be a nice insurance policy while the Orioles hope for a continued upward trend with some of their younger arms. And that the road for top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is a smooth one.

Who really can say until he gets out there, takes the ball every five or six days and pushes himself beyond the number of games he grew accustomed to in the minors?

The Orioles will get back John Means at some point during the summer, perhaps before the All-Star break, certainly after it. They more easily can calculate what they’ll receive from veteran Kyle Gibson based on his 10 seasons in the majors, though they also trust that their studies of video and pitching program will bring out the best in him.