Would Nats have better chance of re-signing Soto if they never traded him?

In a free agent class loaded with big names, one name clearly stands above the rest. Juan Soto was always going to be the prize of the 2024-25 offseason, and the now-26-year-old star ultimately positioned himself as well as he possibly could to get whatever he wants, from wherever he wants it, this winter.

Are the Nationals part of that conversation? The optimist would say absolutely they are, with plenty of available money to spend and their prior relationship with their former World Series hero. The pessimist would say there’s no chance of a reunion, not with the Yankees and Mets at the top of the list of suitors and not with the Nats’ lack of participation in legitimate free agency for several years now.

The realist would say there is a chance, but it’s a pretty small chance. By all accounts, Soto loved his first season with the Yankees, who loved him back and who now really need him to try to get back to and then win the World Series. If he somehow doesn’t re-sign with the Yanks, then the Mets are probably going to offer comparable money in the same city. And then there are other big-market suitors like the Phillies and Red Sox, maybe the Dodgers, Giants and Cubs as well if he’s willing to leave the East Coast.

Soto would have to really want to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals would have to really want to bring him back to make this happen. It’s not impossible, but it’s probably improbable.

Here’s an interesting question, though, that must have crossed a few minds in the last week or two: If the Nats had never traded Soto, would they have a better chance of re-signing him now?

We know why Mike Rizzo did trade him (along with Josh Bell) to the Padres on Aug. 2, 2022. After he turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer earlier that summer, Rizzo concluded there was little hope of convincing Soto to sign any kind of extension before reaching free agency. And because his club was well on its way to a 107-loss season, with a barren farm system after years of draft picks failing to pan out, Rizzo believed his best chance of restocking that system was to trade a young superstar who still had 2 1/3 years of club control attached to his name.

What, though, if Rizzo hadn’t done it. What if he had held onto Soto for those remaining 2 1/3 years. What would the conversation be like right now, with Soto having never played in San Diego or New York? Would he have been less inclined to look elsewhere? Or, at least, would he have considered the Nationals as high on his preferred list as any other team interested in his services?

Here’s what we’ve come to know about Soto: He cares about winning. He really cares about winning. He also cares about being compensated extremely well. And he has let Scott Boras call the shots throughout this process, trusting his agent’s longstanding preference not to preemptively sign contract extensions and instead take advantage of a system that almost always produces more money to those who wait for free agency.

So the real question is whether Soto would believe the Nationals were positioned to win in 2025 and beyond without already having James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana either on their big league or minor league roster.

Even with the arrival of the first three in D.C., the Nats only won 71 games in back-to-back seasons. If they want to contend in 2025, they’re going to need those players, plus a bunch of other young cornerstones, to take some major steps forward. They’re also going to have to supplement that roster with some experienced players of consequence, not one-year rentals like Joey Gallo and Eddie Rosario.

What would the Nationals look like right now without Wood, Abrams and Gore? They would have quite a few important holes to fill, and while Soto would more than adequately allow them to overcome the loss of Wood, they wouldn’t have a bona fide big league shortstop to replace Abrams, nor a potential ace left-hander to replace Gore. They would have to have acquired comparable (or better) players from somewhere else, without having any other trade chips like Soto to dangle in front of other teams.

The Nats would be a better team right now than they were in August 2022, no doubt. But would they be better enough to convince Soto they were on the right track toward contention in the near future? Because if he couldn’t envision it, there’s little reason to believe he would have stayed, no matter the size of the contract offer.

No, as tough as it may be to accept, the Nationals’ best chance all along of re-signing Soto as a free agent was to do just what they did: Trade him, then hope to bring him back two years later. (Actually, their best chance would’ve been to do a better job drafting and developing quality major leaguers from 2012-20, giving them the ability to replace the departing members of their championship roster from within and never have to embark on the rebuild in the first place.)

Their chances of re-signing Soto now may not be great, but they’re probably a little better than their chances of retaining him after seven seasons in a curly W cap, the last five of which would’ve come with a losing record.