Matt of Matt's Bats: Examining how Nats can regain division lead

Think back to about a month ago, July 29, 2015. The Nationals enjoyed a two-game lead in the National League East. They won 7-2 in Miami and made a road trip up to New York. In the first game of that series, Wilmer Flores, who everyone thought was about to be traded, hit a walk-off single to win the game, and the lead was cut to one going into a start against reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. The Nats lost the next game, too, and the Mets were suddenly tied for first. On nationally-televised Sunday Night Baseball, Noah Syndergaard and the Mets completed the sweep. The Mets took first place in the NL East, and since then, they've only grown their lead.

It's been a bad August for Nationals fans. The team has played poor baseball, which has been the reason the Nats are 5 1/2 games back. With each passing day, the Mets are starting to look like the sure favorites to win the NL East. Before the season, Las Vegas picked the Nationals as the 6-1 favorite to win the 2015 World Series. Now at the end of August, there's about a 15 percent chance of them winning the division and about an equal chance for getting one of the wild card spots.

In order for the Nationals to make the playoffs, they not only need to start winning, they need the Mets to start losing. The Nationals have been unable to put together any kind of winning streak. Before they visited the last place Rockies on the road trip last week, the last time they won back-to back games was all the way back to July 29-30 - the series before they lost the division lead to the Mets. (Personally, I haven't been to a game where the Nats have won since July 3). I'm not saying that the season is over for the Nationals, because anything can happen. But unless the Mets collapse and the Nats start winning games against better teams (Cardinals, Orioles, Mets, and improving Padres), this doesn't look good.

Here's what I think it will take for the Nats to regain their lead. First, remember that it was only a month ago that the Nats held a 3 1/2 game lead. Those numbers have basically reversed, but with another five weeks to go, it can switch back if the Mets play consistently bad baseball and the Nats consistently win. The Mets had the chance last week to bury the Nats when they were on their West Coast road trip, but the Mets got swept by the Pirates. Being 5 1/2 games back with 39 left is hard but possible. I like that Jayson Werth is batting leadoff, Anthony Rendon is picking up from last year and Michael A. Taylor has been great as a No. 8 hitter with MLB's longest home run of the year. The Nats need to find a way to get Danny Espinosa into more games. It might make sense to give Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond, Yunel Escobar and Jayson Werth each one day off every week and slip Espinosa into their position. They'll get rest and Danny will get at bats.

The other thing in the Nats' favor is that the Mets' best pitchers - Matt Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard - will be on innings limits. That means they may get pulled out of starts early or skip some starts. There isn't an obvious spot starter for the Mets since rookie phenom Steven Matz is injured. Nats fans have to hope that causes the Mets to lose some games. But on Sunday, Logan Verrett, a relief pitcher, threw eight innings of one-run ball and gave the Mets the win. Mets manager Terry Collins has already announced, however, that the three of them will be ready to pitch the last series in September and into the postseason if necessary. What he was talking about, of course, is the final series of the year when the Nationals go to New York to end the season. The head-to-head games are the most important for the Nationals to make up ground, because each Nationals win is a Mets loss. Right now, it looks like the season could come down to the six remaining games, including the very last game of the 2015 season. The Nationals will be facing off against Harvey, de Grom and Syndergaard for those last three.

For the Nationals, this season will probably come down to the wire, the last game of the year at Citi Field. No matter what happens, as a fan, I would like to see the team end the season with a healthy lineup and playing better baseball than they have all year.

Ten-year-old Matt blogs about the Nationals at Matt's Bats. Follow him on Twitter: @MattsBats. He shares his views weekly as part of MASNsports.com's initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.