The Nationals have the best rotation in baseball, but considering the way pitching is stacked in the National League East, they might need it to win a second consecutive division title.
The Braves usually challenge the Nationals. But this year, the Mets and the Marlins are likely to be the Nationals' biggest headaches.
The Braves rotation is strong, but not as deep as last season. The Phillies are trying to start over, and lefty Cole Hamels will be front and center in trade discussions as July approaches. The Marlins added an ace, Mat Latos, who pitched to a 3.31 ERA during his three seasons in Cincinnati's hitter-friendly ballpark, to a core of strong arms with upside. The Mets are banking on Matt Harvey, who electrified the Citi Field in 2013, to return from elbow surgery and pick up where he left off.
As spring training camps open this week in Florida and Arizona, here is where things stand with pitching the NL East:
Atlanta: The Braves had the fourth-lowest ERA for starters last season. The Braves have traded big-name players to stockpile young pitchers, but this season, they'll build around Julio Teheran, who had a 2.89 ERA and two shutouts last season; Alex Wood, an underrated pitcher on the rise; and Shelby Miller, a top-notch prospect acquired from St. Louis for outfielder Jason Heyward. The big question is whether Mike Minor can return from a shoulder injury. After that, Mike Foltynewicz, Eric Stuts and Wandy Rodriguez are candidates for fifth spot. Craig Kimbrel is still the Braves' closer. Last year, the Braves struggled to score runs and take advantage of some of the best pitching in the NL. Now, without Justin Upton, Heyward and Evan Gattis, there are questions about the pitching as well as the ability to score runs.
Miami: The Marlins shipped prospects to Cincinnati for Latos, 27, a top-of-the-rotation pitcher who can become a free agent after the season. So it is safe to say that the Marlins are expecting to contend this year because who knows if they'll sign Latos long-term? They have rotation depth and strong power arms in the bullpen. And their best pitcher, Jose Fernandez, is expected to be back sometime in June after Tommy John surgery. In addition to Latos, the Marlins will start the season with Henderson Alvarez (2.65 ERA last season), Jarred Cosart (3.69 ERA), Dan Haren (4.11 ERA) and Tom Koehler (3.81 ERA) in their rotation. Alvarez is an excellent pitcher, Cosart has nasty stuff and Koehler is underrated. Also, the Marlins have David Phelps, Aaron Crow and Andre Rienzo.
New York: The Mets, with 79 wins last season, think this is the year they will contend, and when it comes to pitching, they have depth. Zack Wheeler (2.54 ERA in 2014), Jon Niese (3.40 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (2.69 ERA) are the locks in the rotation. Wheeler is set for a breakout season, and either he or Niese will be the starter on opening day against the Nationals. Harvey, an All-Star in 2013 who was out last season after Tommy John surgery, expects to be back April, but manager Terry Collins says the team will be careful with him. The 41-year-old Bartolo Colon will likely be the No. 5 starter and that means Dillion Gee could end up in the bullpen. Also, the Mets like the progress of prospects Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and Steven Matz. Syndergaard, acquired from Toronto, has the highest ceiling of the three.
Philadelphia: The Phillies are in transition and tried to trade All-Stars Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon over the winter. No deals were done and the debate was whether the Phillies overvalued the two pitchers. The Phillies need each to produce so that they'll have value for when the July 31 non-waiver deadline approaches. Given the skyrocketing contracts of starting pitchers this offseason, the $96 million left on Hamels' contract seems like a steal, but the Phillies are looking for prospects. After Hamels, the Phillies' rotation has Cliff Lee (another trade candidate), Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams and David Buchanan, who had a 3.75 ERA in 20 starts last season. Harang and Williams are classic journeyman. Williams pitched 115 innings for three teams last season. Harang was a productive starter for Atlanta in 2014.
Washington: Is there any question that the Nationals have the best rotation in the league, if not in baseball? Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez -and now Max Scherzer, the $210 million pitcher with one complete game in his career, is on the staff. Scherzer, who left Detroit for D.C., has had 16, 18 and 21 wins in the last three seasons with strikeout totals of 231, 240 and 252. The questions: Will Strasburg continue to be the opening day starter? Will Gonzalez bounce back? Assuming the Nationals win the NL East - and who isn't pitching them? - who is the starter that gets bumped from the postseason rotation? The Nationals could have multiple pitchers contend for titles in victories, ERA and strikeouts in the NL. And all would have a chance be NL Cy Young contenders. The bullpen will look different: Casey Janssen replaces Tyler Clippard as one of the setup men for closer Drew Storen. Storen was lights-out as a closer last season and that's why Rafael Soriano is gone. Clippard was as durable as a pitcher could get. Janssen has closing ability. Last year, he was one of the best relievers in the AL with Toronto until a food poisoning issue sidelined him at midseason.
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