A look at some possible reasons for predictions the O's will have a poor season

Don't worry, Orioles fans, I am honestly not trying to get your blood pressure elevated and I'm not trolling you. But I do want to spend some time today discussing this topic: O's season predictions.

Keep in mind this very, very important fact: Predictions are interesting to look at and debate, but they mean nothing. If you don't believe me just go back to some predictions for last year, which missed on the Orioles by a mile.

But even after the Orioles posted 96 wins, an American League Championship Series appearance and won their division by 12 games, here are some predictions for the 2015 Orioles that don't even see them posting a winning record:

* Steamer projects 78-84
* Pecota projects 78-84
* FanGraphs projects 79-83

Recently, ESPN's Buster Olney said: "This is a team that has the deepest pitching staff in the American League East."

So if the Orioles have such deep pitching, why are they predicted to have losing seasons in these projections?

Good question, but the Orioles always seem to fare better when a human is providing the opinion, rather than a computer or projection system.

I don't know what these systems use to project won-loss records, but PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.

PECOTA is a Baseball Prospectus proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.

Yeah, that sounds like a system where the Orioles don't have a chance. And that system predicted the Orioles would also finish 78-84 last year, missing their actual win total by 18.

Here is my take why the O's fare poorly in some of these predictions/projections:

* O's starting pitching is underrated: FanGraphs wrote that "Kevin Gausman is the most talented starter in the rotation, but no one in there is really an impact pitcher."

Steamer projected the Orioles would allow 4.44 runs per game this year. Last year, the Orioles allowed 593 runs (3.66 per game) to rank third in the AL. If they do give up 4.44 runs per game, they would allow 719 for the season, which would have been 12th last year in the league. Why Steamer sees the O's going from third to 12th in runs allowed, I truly have no idea.

Last year, the Orioles ranked third in the AL in team ERA at 3.43 and fifth in rotation ERA at 3.61. After the All-Star break, the Orioles led the league in both team ERA at 2.88 and rotation ERA at 2.94.

They didn't just pitch good, they pitched great. But they don't score high in the sabermetric FIP stat (11th in the AL in 2014) and maybe that hurts them in these projections. They don't strike out many batters and some computers (and actual humans, too) are impressed by strikeouts.

Also, the O's don't have an ace and they seem to get downgraded for that, while not getting a bump for having a deep starting staff one through five along with a solid bullpen. Plus, they have depth on the farm. But Steamer doesn't seem to care.

* Computers can't really quantify defense very well: I'm not a fan of defensive metrics and think defense is very hard to put a reliable stat on. When we evaluate players, we often put weight on offensive stats but what about defense?

This is an area where the Orioles are among the best in the game, and maybe the metrics don't do them justice and/or the computers don't put the weight and importance on defense that the Orioles do throughout their organization. Run prevention often gets overlooked, in my opinion.

* The O's have more stars than they get credit for: While MLB Network listed just one Oriole, Adam Jones, among the best 100 players in the game right now, the Orioles have players in Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado and Jones that have either played in an All-Star game, or won a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger. Hardy and Jones have achieved all three.

So that is a solid talent base that will be on the field in five of the eight defensive spots on the field, minus the pitcher.

Maybe it gets back to the losses of Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and Andrew Miller, and some that project and predict just see the club falling off significantly without those three.

I don't use any Optimization Test Algorithm when I look at how the Orioles may do this year. But I still see a good team, probably one that is the best team in the division.

As the Orioles begin the Grapefruit League season today, it's probably time to put the computer projections in the rearview mirror and have fun talking about actual games and results.

The Orioles always seem to fare better when that happens.