ESPN's Keith Law on the O's hire of Mike Elias and more

LAS VEGAS - Just as we can't expect their won-loss record to quickly improve as they rebuild, the Orioles' battle against other teams off the field in the front office could be lengthy as well. We're talking about how the club catches up to other teams in analytics and in making data-driven decisions.

On Nov. 21, new Orioles general manager Mike Elias hired Sig Mejdal as the club's assistant general manager, analytics. He is tasked with building up the Orioles analytics department and getting the club up to speed with other organizations before it can potentially exceed them leading to more wins on the field.

This process takes time, according to ESPN baseball analyst Keith Law. During a Winter Meetings interview today, we discussed the Orioles work to improve their analytics operation.

Can they catch up to and maybe even top the competition?

"Yes, but it's going to take time," said Law. "In talking to GMs of other clubs that have encountered such situations, you are probably looking at two to three years until they reach a point where they are on par with other clubs that have been doing this for a while. Some clubs have had large R&D departments (research and development) for up to 10 years now.

"We are sort in a larger era now, the Statcast data where the technical requirements, in terms of hardware, software and personnel requirements with staffing, are much higher these last three years. It may take a full calendar year until they can fully staff their R&D department. I've heard they have seven current job openings. That is not even large. But to try and hire seven people with all these other baseball hires, that is a lot to ask. It may be a year before they are actually running to the point where they do the kind of analysis that there were comfortable with in Houston."

But Law certainly believes the Orioles made the right move with Elias.

"I think this is exactly what they needed," he said. "The fact that these guys have worked together for a while now and had so much success in Houston points to this being a great hire. I feel like with the hiring of Mike Elias, he's not taking this job unless he knows that he has the authority that Dan Duquette did not have.

"Mike comes in, gets to pick his own manager, his own amateur director, his own farm director and on down the line. This will be Mike Elias' organization in philosophy and in practice from Day One."

At 35, is Elias ready for his new challenge?

"I think so," Law said. "I think he's been ready for this for a while now. I think he was someone in demand previously but recognized there were certain opportunities he wanted. To come with Sig, someone I know a lot about as a person and also as a baseball mind, I have a ton of respect for Sig. The fact that Elias could bring him as well with an organization they can build from scratch (will be important). Now they get to build something really from the foundation on up, which I know is very appealing to two people as intellectually minded as those two are."

Sig-Mejdal-Sidebar.jpgLaw wrote about Mejdal in his book "Smart Baseball."

"He is a literal rocket scientist," Law said. "Extremely bright, extremely intellectually curious. Not just someone that is smart, but someone that enjoys asking questions and the process of finding ways to answer those questions. That is how you advance a club forward and find new philosophies and ideas. Whether it is in the amateur draft, the international market or pro market, he will change - not even change - he will infuse a philosophy throughout the organization.

"He's very comfortable working with traditional baseball people, too. He was in uniform one summer as a coach. Loved to go out to the back fields to talk with coaches. He really pioneered the idea of this data is not just for finding players, but it's for improving players. We need to get our entire player development machine on board with what is coming out of analytics, so we can get the most out of the players we have, either to get them to the majors or to increase their trade value."

Law agrees with an assessment that Orioles fans are going to need to look past wins and loses for a while to see progress in other areas. Whether it is an individual performance of a player or a young player that is getting better and showing progress who one day will help a contending Orioles team try to beat the big boys.

"You want to win every game you can, but recognize the Orioles are going to lose 100 games this year and probably 100 next year also," Law said. "They are at a point now where Houston was in 2012. They can just try stuff and see what happens. That's fun. As an Orioles fan, view this as experiment. We don't know how everything will work, but it should be really fun to find out what does and doesn't work. You are going to get to follow along with this intellectual journey with a front office, but also have the confidence that these guys have been there before. They've built success and they know where they are going. They are not just throwing stuff against the wall. There is an idea behind it. And you get to watch the results play out."




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