MLBPipeline.com's Jonathan Mayo on Mike Elias and some O's prospects

LAS VEGAS - It's probably no surprise that while Orioles fans seem excited with their new general manager Mike Elias, and national reporters echo some of their feelings. Two I talked with yesterday, ESPN's Keith Law and Jonathan Mayo of MLBPipeline.com, spoke highly of what Elias can do for the Orioles.

"I think it's a great hire," said Mayo. "Obviously, you see the success the Astros have had in terms of what the Orioles now need to do in terms of rebuilding from within. That is in areas like the draft, hopefully through international free agency and things of that nature.

"I've talked to Mike a lot over the years when he was scouting director and even when he got bumped up from that. He brings a really good mix of the analytics approach, but he also had to go out and scout and do the old-fashioned eye test sort of thing. To me, the teams that do it the best use a hybrid approach - you can't just do one or the other. I think Mike, because he's had all these different experiences, brings that breadth of knowledge with him to Baltimore. And a lot of youthful energy also."

Elias will try to emulate in Baltimore what GM Jeff Luhnow did with Houston - and that is take a 100-loss team eventually to the World Series and win it.

"He also saw what Luhnow did in Houston and continues to do," Mayo said. "Surround himself with smart people. No one general manager can do everything all by himself. There is a lot on his plate and I think he'll go and do this the right way. He's not going to rush out and just hire people because there are spots to fill. He's going to find the right people for those jobs."

Elias has said he wants to build an elite talent pipeline in Baltimore. I asked Mayo if that is what Houston did to win and if Elias can indeed replicate such success in Baltimore.

"That is exactly what they did," Mayo said. "But it was slow. People have to remember how many times they picked No. 1 overall and they whiffed on some of those No. 1 picks. But they hit on using their draft pool so incredibly well.

"The other thing they did really well is they scoured the back fields for diamonds in the rough. A lot of their trades they made that included someone no one heard of in A ball are guys that either moved up or they then flipped because they became legit prospects.

"That is how you get there. It's not just drafting well. That is important. It's not just having a presence internationally. It's the combination of that, plus on the pro scouting side really finding some guys. You trade a good big leaguer and you get a marquee young player back, but you also get some guy in A ball that turn into an All-Star-caliber player.

"In the (Manny) Machado deal - and this was obviously before Mike came in - getting a Dean Kremer in that deal was really big. He might end up being the best player in that trade. I'm a big Dean Kremer guy. They need to be doing more of that."

Mayo had some thoughts on some of the Orioles' top prospects as well. He feels lefty DL Hall has a strong chance to make MLBPipeline's new top 100 prospects list that will come out in late January.

I asked Mayo if it is hard to rank O's infield prospect Ryan Mountcastle because, while his bat is highly regarded, scouts have continued to criticize his arm and are not sure where he will play defensively when and if he reaches the majors. He is currently No. 63 on the MLBPipeline.com top 100.

"A little bit, yes. I think Ryan Mountcastle has a lot of upside as a hitter," Mayo said. "I really like watching him hit. But then when you try to figure out where is he going to play, that's when it becomes a little questionable.

"I've see him at times look really good at third and I wonder why is anyone complaining. Then you see a poor throw. I might stick him out in left field. He's not unathletic. Or maybe you just live with fringy defense at third. His hands work OK, he moves OK, it's just that the arm comes up a little short. There have been plenty of guys, if you believe it's a 45 arm, you can live with it. If you thinks it's a 40 arm and I've had people contend that is the rating, then you may have a problem. If I were the Orioles, I'd have him take fly balls this winter to see if it can work."