O's game blog: Burnes faces Blue Jays at Oriole Park

The Orioles and Blue Jays play the third game of their four-game series tonight after splitting a doubleheader Monday. The Orioles won the opener 11-5 and lost the nightcap 8-4.

The Orioles (63-44) lead the American League East, but now just by a half-game over the Yankees, who have won their past three games. The Orioles have not been in second place since June 26. They would be tonight with a loss and another Yankees win.

While the Orioles are 3-3 their past six games, in longer stretches they have lost six of their past nine, 12 of 19 and 13 of the last 21 games.

Since June 21 when they began a series where they would be swept in Houston, the Orioles are 14-19 with a -42 run differential. In those 33 games, they have a team ERA of 5.37 allowing a team batting average to opponents of .270 with an .800 OPS in that span. Opponents are scoring 4.5 runs per game with 48 home runs in this stretch.

After the doubleheader, the O’s have now allowed five or more runs in eight straight games, seven times allowing six or more. In the eight games, they have allowed 91 hits with a 5.45 team ERA.

The Orioles are 3-8 at home in July.

On the mound tonight, righty Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA) will make his 22^nd start. Burnes ranks second in the majors in ERA to the Tigers' Tarik Skubal at 2.35.

Burnes has been on a roll where he has recorded five straight quality starts with a 2.78 ERA. Since April 26, he has 15 quality starts in 16 games, allowing four runs once to miss from having 16 in a row. In this stretch, Burnes is 7-4 with a 2.37 ERA and .608 OPS against.

The Orioles are 14-7 in Burnes’ 21 starts. He gives up a .498 OPS to lefty batters, which is outstanding, and a .683 to right-handed batters.

AL leaders, quality starts:

* 17 – Corbin Burnes and Logan Gilbert (Mariners)
* 16 – Tarik Skubal and Seth Lugo (Royals)

Since the 2020 season, four major league pitchers have sub-3.00 ERAs with a minimum of 500 innings pitched:

* Max Fried – 2.73
* Corbin Burnes – 2.79
* Shane Bieber – 2.91
* Max Scherzer – 2.98

Burnes in that span produces a 148 ERA plus and a 1.004 WHIP. He is 47-26 with 2.4 walks per nine innings and 10.6 strikeouts per nine in that time.

Burnes has made two starts this season against Toronto, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. In three career starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA.

Burnes has been outstanding this year in six AL East starts, going 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA. He’s allowed five earned runs over 40 innings with a .170 batting average and .480 OPS allowed.

Right-hander Chris Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA) makes his 22nd start for Toronto. He has not faced the Orioles this year. But in six career starts, he is 3-2 with a 4.79 ERA. In four starts in July, he has a 6.23 ERA and .800 OPS against.

The Rogers deal: A quick take on the O's trade for lefty pitcher Trevor Rogers. While it may not be a big October difference-making acquisition, it could help the O's secure a playoff berth and lengthen a rotation hit by injuries.

The five now could be in some order Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Rogers. That could move Albert Suárez to a middle relief role.

While Rogers has a 4.53 ERA this year in 21 starts, which is below league average, he has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his past nine starts, with an ERA of 3.17 in that span. The O's hope that pitching roll continues with them.

The price to get him was Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. That was the price to get a lower-salaried, back-end starter in a seller's market. But one that is under team control through 2026. 

A 2017 first-round draft pick, Rogers is 15-32 with an ERA of 4.23 in 80 career starts. His last game was Friday when he gave up two runs versus Milwaukee. So his next day to pitch would be tomorrow. Maybe he gets the last game of this series or pitches early in the Cleveland series that begins Thursday night.