Trevor Rogers' winter plan: Find his velocity again

For Orioles lefty pitcher Trevor Rogers, things were moving fast. Spiraling on him a bit. On July 30 he was traded from Miami to the Orioles, who gave up Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to get him. Less than a month later – after four mostly ineffective starts for his new club – he was sent to Triple-A.

This was not going the right direction.

He had pitched to an ERA of 3.17 in his last nine Miami starts before the trade but had an ERA of 7.11 in four O’s outings.

A National League All-Star as a rookie in 2021, a season that ended with his second-place Rookie of the Year finish, he could not get it done for his new club. Not only would he not help Baltimore get back to the postseason, now he was going back to the minors.

But on his way out of Baltimore, where he had a WHIP of 1.842 in four games, he had a conversation that was encouraging.

“When I first got traded over there, I just put way too much on my plate," Rogers recalled in a recent phone interview. "They traded for me, they want to win, I have to do this, I have to do that. It ended up biting me in the butt. I just put way too much pressure on myself.

“When I got optioned, (Drew) French (O’s pitching coach) and I had a really good discussion. You know, we didn’t want to do this, but we have a really good, solid plan for you. We have you for two years (of team control through 2026) and with our staff and what we are able to do we can get you back to where we think you can be and help us win. Hearing that from him, that they had a plan in place, not just we’re sending you to Triple-A it didn’t work out, we’ll see you later, it wasn’t that type of thing and definitely made it a little easier knowing that.”

Then he pitched for Norfolk on Aug. 25. He gave up 10 runs in 4 1/3 innings. What the heck.

Looking back now, Rogers said he throws that game out. He was sick and should not have pitched. Things would soon get better but not on that night.

“I had nothing in the tank. My wife was in the stands and she said I looked dead out there.”

But he would come back to life, so to speak, over his final four starts of the 2024 season, when he pitched to a 2.96 ERA for Norfolk with six walks and 28 strikeouts over 24 1/3 innings. He gave up a .191 batting average and .557 OPS.

Finally something was going right.

It was the start of a trend in a positive direction. A positive trend that has carried into this offseason.

“Really not worrying about the results,” Rogers said about his end to the year pitching well for Norfolk. “Was really just focusing on the mechanics and not trying to worry about the outcome. Just take it bit by bit. Can’t take a big bite out of it early and expect in one day this is going to turn around. Really focusing on mechanics and getting back to my intensity level – through the course of the year I lost that intensity on my start days and was just trying to survive – I kind of found those two things and saw the benefits of that.”

It provided him offseason momentum.

“Absolutely. Definitely, a good taste left in my mouth. Kind of a reset for me mentally. And really this is the first offseason in a couple of years where I am healthy and able to do things in the weight room that I have not been able to do in a couple of years. Really excited about that.”

And that weight room work is where Rogers and the Orioles really think will be a critical area for him.

In 2021, when he pitched to an ERA of 2.64 over 25 starts, Rogers averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball. By last year that was down to 91.9 mph.

Statcast metrics shows that Rogers’ fastball in 2021 played in the top five percent of the majors in “fastball run value” and he was one of the toughest to hit a barrel against, ranking in the top 11 percent.

In 2024, he ranked in the bottom 19 percent in “fastball run value” and was in the bottom 35 percent in barrel percentage against.

This is where that conversation with French comes into play. Just how could the Orioles help him? What is the plan and how are they helping him this offseason?

“The main thing just the way baseball is trending is that – velocity is king,” Rogers said. “We’ve really done a good job, and they’ve done a good job, of the strength and conditioning aspects of it and where I have been lacking with strength just with the injuries throughout the years. Really attacking those areas and also developing a better and more consistent breaking ball and getting those few ticks back on my fastball. I think we all know it’s in there. Just got to get stronger and get my mechanics back where it needs to be.”

The O’s and Rogers added another element that could prove pivotal. He would go to a player performance data-driven center for further evaluation, testing and coaching.

“I have been doing Driveline this offseason (in Phoenix). The Orioles and Driveline, we’ve been in constant communication, just making sure we are all on the same page. We looked at the numbers and my lower body strength was far below average. So, it correlates with velocity.

“To be honest I was happy to see that. If everything was right in the middle or average, we might have a bigger question. But knowing that was lacking and it contributed to my lower velocity, I was excited to know there is an answer. And I can work to attain the goal of getting stronger.”

It was like a light bulb turning on moment for Rogers. The lower body weakness could be turned into more ticks on the radar gun.

"Losing three to four miles per hour, it just never made sense to me until we looked at these numbers. And it now makes perfect sense," he said. 

“I did long toss today and felt real strong. My back feels good, my arm feels good. It’s late November, we still have a long way to go but the fact I can put a little bit of velocity on it pain-free is real good for me.”

So as a trio oversees his offseason program – the Orioles, Driveline and Rogers himself – they all concur that a velocity gain is very possible.

Rogers has specific numbers in mind.

“The bottom end, if I could stay on the low end, consistently 93, 94, that plays a lot better in the big leagues than 88 to 91, especially coming from the left side. If it can grab a 95, 96 from time to time, then we’re rolling with steam,” he said.

The last few months have him quite optimistic about what he can bring to the Orioles over the next few years.

Soon in this space: Even more with Rogers. We will talk about what his pitch-mix could look like in 2025 and how he may introduce a new pitch based on October work in Sarasota with an O’s coach. He also realizes he has doubters after his 2024 season and will need to prove to everyone – himself included – that he can be a key O’s rotation piece.