Zach Wilt: What Ubaldo Jimenez needs to do to be effective

For the first time since July 28, Ubaldo Jimenez will make a start for the Baltimore Orioles. With Chris Tillman on the disabled list, Jimenez will take the mound tonight in D.C. as the Birds look to take all four games of their interleague series against the Nationals. It's been a tough season for Jimenez, he's 5-10 with a 6.94 ERA. In his three seasons with the Orioles, he's pitched to a 4.99 ERA and surrendered 4.5 walks per nine innings.

Jimenez signed a four-year deal with the Birds prior to the 2014 season and has struggled to live up to it to this point. There have been frustrations throughout the last few seasons and this year, as we've even heard rumors about the O's cutting ties altogether with 32-year-old pitcher. Jimenez has managed to keep his roster spot, but has instead been moved the bullpen for the last month, pitching only in a mop-up-duty-type role.

Despite what Orioles fans may say on Twitter, it hasn't all been bad for Jimenez in Baltimore. There have been some highlights, including his start back on May 7 in which he surrendered just two runs over eight innings, striking out six and walking one against the A's. Remember that gem? It was a game score of 68, Jimenez's highest of the season. The Birds won that game 5-2 and split a doubleheader against Oakland after dropping the first game. So what was it that made Jimenez so effective during this start and how can he repeat that tonight in our nation's capital? I dove into the PitchF/X data in search of some answers.

The key to any good Jimenez start is his sinker. He's thrown it more than any other pitch this season. Lefty, righty, batter ahead or pitcher ahead, it doesn't seem to matter. It starts and ends with the sinker. 42.39 percent of his pitches this season have been sinkers. In that start on May 7, Jimenez threw the sinker 59 times, recording strikes 62.7 percent of the time. The interesting thing I found was that he received a lot of called strikes in the bottom of the zone with that pitch, while recording just three whiffs. The sinker also recorded 10 outs on balls in play. If Jimenez is going to be successful tonight against the Nats, he's going to have to find the zone with his sinker early.

Behind the sinker is Jimenez's split, which he's thrown 17.7 percent of the time this season. Back on May 7, he recorded six whiffs on 24 of those pitches (19 total strikes). He also managed four outs on balls in play. It was his most effective pitch that day with consistent horizontal and vertical break. The split is Jimenez's out-pitch, and when he can locate it in the zone, it fools even the game's best hitters.

Jimenez also works in a four-seam fastball, slider, curve and the occasional cutter. My favorite takeaway from the PitchF/X data was the beautiful artwork created by Jimenez's release point on May 7. I noticed very slight variations on the horizontal axis, specifically the release of his splitter, but everything remained consistent on the vertical location. The arm slot on the sinker was steady and it produced some of the best results he's had in 2016.

Mechanics have always been blamed for Jimenez's struggles, so the PitchF/X data hasn't necessarily unearthed something we didn't already know. However, there may be another factor in play when it comes to his problems this season: plain old-fashion bad luck. Jimenez's 4.75 FIP is over two runs less than his 6.94 ERA, opponents have a crazy .372 BABIP against him this season. Some of this could be blamed on the Orioles' outfield defense, which ranks 29th in baseball with -40 defensive runs saved. Though it hasn't seemed to affect Dylan Bundy, who leads the O's staff in fly ball percentage. I would blame the rest of the hard hit balls, but the exit velocity data doesn't show that Jimenez has been hit much harder than the rest of the league.

Perhaps he's just due for another May 7-type gem. With expectations low for tonight and a matchup against a team who has lost their last four games, it's hard not to like his chances. If nothing else, we have his red hot bat to look forward to tonight. Jimenez had two hits and two RBIs in eight at-bats last season.

Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zach_wilt. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.