Backs against wall again, Nats try to pull off rare World Series feat

HOUSTON - They've won three elimination games in the last month, twice when trailing by multiple runs in the eighth inning. And that's to say nothing of the uphill climb they faced after opening this remarkable season 19-31 before reaching the World Series.

So while there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Nationals' ability to come back from three straight home losses to the Astros over the weekend and now flip the 115th Fall Classic back in their favor the next two nights at Minute Maid Park, if ever there was a team capable of doing something like this, wouldn't it be this one?

"Pretty much everybody eliminated us from the season in May," catcher Kurt Suzuki said. "We've kind of been playing like every game was an elimination game since then."

That's what the Nationals have to convince themselves right now as they prepare for Game 6 tonight and hope to force a Game 7 on Wednesday. They've overcome plenty already this year. Why not overcome another daunting obstacle and emerge from it all as champions?

"We've been in this situation before," fellow catcher Yan Gomes said. "We just were in this situation before in L.A. We are not hanging our heads. We're still going to come out there and fight just like we've done all year."

It all sounds simple enough, but of course it's anything but. The Astros, if you haven't realized by now, are a phenomenal team that didn't win 107 games by fluke and have shown some impressive resilience itself to bounce back after dropping Games 1 and 2 at home.

And history is on Houston's side, though perhaps not as much as you'd assume.

This is the 67th time a World Series has reached Game 6. In the previous 66 cases, the team that was up 3-2 went on to win the series 44 times.

Which means the team that trailed the series 3-2 came back to win the series 22 times. And 41 of 66 teams that trailed the series 3-2 at least won Game 6 and forced a Game 7.

So in that particular case, history appears to be on the Nationals' side to at minimum extend the season another day.

Here's the key caveat, though: The vast majority of teams that have come back from a 3-2 deficit to win the World Series have done so while playing at home. Only seven times in history has a team won both Games 6 and 7 on the road, and six of those instances came more than 40 years ago: the Cardinals in 1926 and 1934, the Yankees in 1952 and 1958, the Tigers in 1968 and the Pirates in 1979.

There is, however, one recent example that should give the Nationals hope. Only three years ago, the Cubs found themselves trailing the Indians 3-1 in their first World Series appearance in 71 years. They went on to win Game 5 at Wrigley Field, then Games 6 and 7 in Cleveland to break one of the most notable curses in North American sports history.

And guess who served as bench coach for that team?

"The guys are good," said manager Davey Martinez, who won a ring serving on Joe Maddon's staff in 2016 and now is trying to win another as Nationals manager. "We were talking about it after the press conference (Sunday) night, and they're all upbeat. They think this is way far from over."

If nothing else, the Nationals have to feel confident about their chances tonight with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. Yes, they've got to find a way to score runs off Justin Verlander and the Astros bullpen, but they have to believe Strasburg is going to keep Houston's lineup in check and give themselves a good chance.

For all the attention and praise heaped upon Max Scherzer - who deserves it, by the way - Strasburg has been this team's true stopper for a while now. In his last six postseason appearances, he's 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 52 strikeouts and four walks. And three of those appearances came in elimination games, the Nationals winning all three (Game 4 of the 2017 National League Division Series, then this year's NL wild card game against the Brewers and NLDS Game 5 against the Dodgers).

"He's been doing it all year, and pretty much the past few years in the playoffs, for us," first baseman Ryan Zimmerman said. "Whenever we need a big game or a big outing, he steps up and gives us one."

If Strasburg steps up again and leads the Nationals to victory tonight, they'll still need to figure out how they're going to win Game 7, whether Scherzer is somehow capable of pitching after getting a cortisone shot in his neck Sunday, or if Aníbal Sánchez and Patrick Corbin (on short rest) are going to have to step in and deliver in Scherzer's absence.

It's a pretty narrow path to victory, but that's nothing new for these Nationals. Their path to victory has been narrow for five months now, with little room for deviation.

There's nowhere else to go at this point but straight ahead and hope they can somehow emerge on the other side as unlikely World Series champions.

"You know, we've lost three battles in a row, but the war is not over yet," center fielder Victor Robles said via interpreter Octavio Martinez. "We've got to go to their home and hopefully force a Game 7. With God in front, anything is possible. So just keep the faith and keep going."