Better, worse or the same in 2018: Pitchers

It's the new game that's sweeping the nation! Well, maybe not quite, but it seemed to get positive reviews when it debuted yesterday. So we might as well go ahead and do Part 2 of "Better, Worse or the Same."

If you missed yesterday's installment, we looked at each of the eight positions on the field (minus pitcher) and asked whether the Nationals likely would be better, worse or the same in 2018 at each position as they were in 2017. The final tally: three positions should be better (catcher, shortstop, left field), two positions should be worse (first base, second base), two positions should be the same (third base, right field) and one could legitimately go any of the three ways (center field).

Today we'll look at the pitching staff, with five slots for the starters and then four generic bullpen roles ...

NO. 1 STARTER: Same, maybe worse
Max Scherzer has set the bar ridiculously high. That's what happens when you win back-to-back Cy Young Awards. So it's no disrespect to the man to predict at least some drop-off this season. Scherzer is 33 now, he dealt with several nagging injuries last year and it's hard to believe he can sustain this kind of out-of-this-world performance forever. The drop-off may not be that big, but the odds of him duplicating a 2.51 ERA, 0.902 WHIP and 268 strikeouts aren't great. Not that anyone should complain if he finishes 2018 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.000 WHIP and 250 strikeouts. That would still get him some Cy Young votes.

NO. 2 STARTER: Same, maybe better
Stephen Strasburg falls into a similar category as Scherzer, with maybe slightly more optimism for improvement, given the fact he currently resides a notch below his rotation mate. Strasburg enjoyed a fantastic 2017 season, the only real blemish his month on the DL in midsummer with a minor nerve issue in his elbow that cost him five or six starts. Once he returned, he was the best pitcher in baseball, and then he carried that into a brilliant postseason performance. That could be the stepping stone for Strasburg to elevate himself into an even higher category of pitcher this season, right alongside Scherzer. But his track record for missing at least some time with injuries has to be taken into consideration as well, leaving you realistically thinking he'll be about the same this year as he was last year.

NO. 3 STARTER: Worse
The Gio Gonzalez of 2017 was the best version of him we've seen since his debut season in D.C. in 2012. He lowered his ERA from 4.57 to 2.96, his WHIP from 1.342 to 1.179 and his opponents' OPS with runners in scoring position from .913 to .518. His postseason performance unfortunately bore way too much resemblance to his previous disappointing October starts, but the overall body of work was excellent. Trouble is, that was such an improvement after four years of regression that it would be foolish to assume he's going to do it again. Gonzalez can still be a highly effective lefty and solid No. 3 behind Scherzer and Strasburg, but it's reasonable to expect worse numbers this year.

NO. 4 STARTER: Better
The opposite of Gonzalez, Tanner Roark is coming off a highly disappointing season that saw his ERA skyrocket from 2.83 to 4.67, his WHIP from 1.171 to 1.335, his opponents' OPS with runners in scoring position from .614 to .820. The wily right-hander was better in the second half of the season than the first. And he'll have a normal spring after last year participating in the World Baseball Classic, which could help him hit the ground running. Maybe Roark won't get back to his surprisingly dominant form of 2016, but at least some improvement should be expected.

NO. 5 STARTER: Same, maybe better
As things stand right now, A.J. Cole and Erick Fedde are the leading candidates to open the season as the No. 5 starter, with veterans Edwin Jackson and Tommy Milone in camp on minor league deals if needed. That could change by the time opening day rolls around, with so many free agent starters still unsigned and the possibility of a trade still lurking. But if the Nats don't make any more changes and stick with what they've got, you've got to think they'll at least get the same production from their No. 5 starter as they did in 2017, when Jackson and Joe Ross combined to go 10-9 with a 5.04 ERA. Cole showed signs of improvement late in the season when he got a chance to make regular starts. Fedde was underwhelming in his (brief) first taste of the majors but remains highly touted and should get a more permanent look at some point in 2018. There is some upside here, but not enough assurance of that to predict improvement.

CLOSER: Better
These reliever evaluations are tricky, because the Nationals bullpen was two completely different entities in 2017: the pre-trade bullpen and the post-trade bullpen. The group that opens 2018 will mostly resemble the post-trade 'pen, so by default that should mean some overall improvement based on the simple fact the first-half 'pen was a disaster. A full season of Sean Doolittle closing, therefore, should be quite good. Doolittle handled the role very well after taking over in mid-July. He'll need to work hard to maintain his shoulder health, and he'll need to try to mix in a few more off-speed pitches to go along with his excellent fastball. But after years of uncertainty and fear, the Nats finally will open the season with zero question marks in the ninth inning.

SETUP MEN: Same, maybe better
After a revolving door of tragic characters in the first half of the season, newcomers Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler locked down the seventh and eighth innings during the second half, giving the Nats a dominant, three-headed monster at the end of games. Both are back in 2018, but neither is a sure thing. Madson was brilliant last season but he's now 37 and something of a medical marvel who will have a tougher time keeping himself in one piece. Kintzler had a breakthrough season in Minnesota and D.C. but is a late-bloomer and doesn't have the kind of track record that guarantees repeat success. The Nationals still enter the new season with far more certainty in these roles than they had a year ago, but at the same time there is uncertainty for each reliever.

OTHER LEFT-HANDERS: Worse, maybe same
The Nationals have no shortage of lefties. In addition to Doolittle, they've got Enny Romero, Sammy Solís and Matt Grace, and two of those final three are likely to make the opening day roster. But they did lose Oliver Pérez to free agency. The ageless lefty may not have perfect, but he was this team's best option to come in and get one or two key left-handed batters out, and he will be missed. Romero has an eye-popping arm but still lacks consistency. Solís has shown flashes but has never been able to stay healthy. Grace looks like an adequate middle man or long man but probably not an elite, back-of-the-bullpen guy.

OTHER RIGHT-HANDERS: Same
Matt Albers is gone, and that loss definitely will be felt. Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover, though, are back and insisting they're in good health after miserable 2017 seasons. Given the injury history of both, you can't just assume Kelley and Glover will excel in 2018. But it's not outrageous to hope at least one of them becomes an important and trusted member of the 'pen. Austin Adams also showed some promise in limited action in September, and Wander Suero could be this season's new revelation after a dominant 2017 in the minors.