Better, worse or the same in 2020: position players

Though there are still a handful of moves that could be made - Hello, Ryan Zimmerman? Hello? Anybody there? - the Nationals have a pretty good idea at this point what their roster will look like when pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach in a mere 20 days.

And that roster, for the most part, looks a lot like the roster that won the World Series just a few short months ago. The question, though, is whether that roster ultimately will outperform the 2019 version, underperform it or prove to be about the same.

We're going to spend the next two days trying to answer that very question, projecting the 2020 Nats by position and comparing them to last year's group. We'll start today with position players, then turn to the pitching staff tomorrow.

So come on in and join us for a little game of "Better, Worse or the Same?" ...

CATCHER: Same
It was such a problem area in 2017 and 2018, but the additions of Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes completely turned this position from a weakness to a real strength in 2019. Nationals catchers wound up totaling 28 homers, 100 RBIs (tops in the National League) and a .743 OPS. Is it reasonable to expect the same this season? Yes, but the path to reach those same totals could be different. Suzuki led the charge last year with 17 homers, 63 RBIs and an .809 OPS while Gomes struggled before a late surge brought his totals to 12 homers, 43 RBIs and a .704 OPS. (The reason those add up to greater totals than stated above is that some of the production came with Suzuki and Gomes playing as pinch-hitters, not as catchers.) Given his advanced age and injury issues last season, it's fair to assume Suzuki's numbers will drop off some. But given his prior track record and perhaps a chance to play more regularly this year, it's probably fair to assume Gomes' numbers will improve. Put that all together, and it's reasonable to think the end result looks a lot like 2019.

FIRST BASE: Worse
This one's a bit tricky, because we don't know who exactly is going to play this position how much this year. As a whole, Nationals first basemen were really productive last season: 37 homers, 128 RBIs, .844 OPS. Howie Kendrick had a lot to do with that, especially during the summer months when Zimmerman was injured and Matt Adams was struggling. Will Kendrick see a lot of action at first base again this season? And is there any way he can continue to provide such a big bat after a career year at 35? Eric Thames (.851 OPS) should be an upgrade over Adams (.741 OPS). And then there's Zimmerman. We're going to assume he re-signs here at some point. Even if he does, how much is he going to play, and how much is he going to produce? The more he plays, the less Kendrick plays first base. (He would see more action at second and third bases.) And how healthy can all of these guys keep themselves? Let's be conservative here and project a slight drop-off in overall production.

SECOND BASE: Same
You might not have realized it, but Nationals second basemen had 30 homers, 96 RBIs and an .821 OPS last season. Again, Kendrick had a big part to do with that, but Asdrúbal Cabrera also was very good after he arrived in August. And Brian Dozier, despite his struggles, did hit 20 homers in 482 plate appearances. The Nationals went out and got Starlin Castro to take Dozier's place. Castro had a subpar .736 OPS for the season in Miami, but he surged late with a revised swing that produced 11 homers and a .993 OPS over his last 36 games. The Nats are banking on that trend continuing this year. So if Castro can produce, and if Kendrick can continue to be a threat when he plays, there's a decent chance the final numbers here look similar.

SHORTSTOP: Better
Trea Turner (19 homers, 37 doubles, 35 steals, .850 OPS) had a very good season. But because he missed two months with a broken finger, and because Wilmer Difo and Carter Kieboom really struggled in his place, Nationals shortstops as a whole finished with a .798 OPS. Keep in mind that even when he returned to the lineup, Turner played the rest of the season with only nine healthy fingers, his right index finger still messed up and unable to grip a bat. So imagine what he might be able to do this season with 10 healthy fingers and perhaps a chance to play in all 162 games, as he did in 2018. And if Davey Martinez decides to give Turner a shot as the No. 3 hitter, those power numbers could go up even more.

THIRD BASE: Worse
I mean, obviously this position is going to be worse. Anthony Rendon isn't walking back through that door, and he was almost entirely responsible for the .971 OPS that Nationals third basemen posted last season (second-best in the majors behind only Nolan Arenado and the Rockies). What, though, can the Nats reasonably expect from Rendon's replacement(s)? If Cabrera and Kendrick end up getting the bulk of the playing time, the numbers should still be solid, though hardly All-Star caliber. If Kieboom ends up winning the job, there's no telling what he'll do. He could struggle, which wouldn't be uncommon for a 22-year-old rookie. Or he could flourish, living up to his potential. The Nationals will hope the latter comes true, but even in that best-case scenario Kieboom isn't going to match peak Rendon on the field. And no matter who mans the hot corner, the drop-off on defense will be noticeable.

LEFT FIELD: Same
One year ago, I predicted Juan Soto would be better as sophomore than he was as a freshman. It may have seemed like a stretch, but we weren't talking about a run-of-the-mill young star. This guy is special, and he proved it in 2019. So why not predict him to be better again in 2020? Because there's only so much potential improvement left for him, even at this young age. Is he going to be better than 34 homers, 110 RBIs and a .949 OPS? I mean, maybe. But that's a tough ask. If there is an area for possible improvement, it's in the field, where Soto already made major strides last season and was named a Gold Glove Award finalist. Overall, though, the Nationals would be more than thrilled with a repeat performance from the new face of their lineup.

CENTER FIELD: Better
Victor Robles doesn't get enough credit for the rookie season he had. Maybe that's because we've been spoiled around here by some brilliant rookie seasons in the past from Rendon, Soto and Bryce Harper. That's not the norm, though. Robles' rookie campaign (.255/.326/.419, 17 homers, 28 steals) was more normal. And that was still a very good rookie season, especially when you throw in his outstanding defense. There's more lurking beneath the surface, though, and everyone with the organization knows it. There's a reason Robles was rated a better all-around prospect than Soto only a few years ago, and there's a reason Mike Rizzo refused to trade him when he had multiple opportunities. This feels like the year he takes off and becomes a more integral part of the Nats lineup.

RIGHT FIELD: Worse
A really underrated key to the Nationals' success in 2019 was the fact that Adam Eaton played in 151 games (second-most on the team behind Robles' 155). After two seasons dealing with the ramifications of gruesome knee and ankle injuries, Eaton stayed on the field from March through October, and the Nats reaped the benefits of that. He wound up hitting .279 with a career-high 15 homers, .365 on-base percentage and .792 OPS, very similar numbers to what he put up his final two seasons in Chicago before he was traded to D.C. Can the Nationals count on Eaton to do the same this year, at age 31? Maybe, but the threat of injury will loom. And with Gerardo Parra now doing "Baby Shark" in Japan, the backups for Eaton will be Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Stevenson. Maybe the end result is a reproduction of 2019. But it feels like there's a better chance of regression in right field this year.