Delving a little deeper into the draft

The day has arrived for the Orioles to unveil the first overall pick in the amateur draft.

Executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias wore his poker face on Friday while sitting in the dugout and taking questions from the media. He didn't suggest that the Orioles would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman. He didn't lead anyone to believe that they no longer held interest.

The same goes for Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., University of California first baseman Andrew Vaughn and Georgia high school shortstop/center fielder C.J. Abrams.

They appear to have advanced to the Final Four. But the hand isn't tipped.

See what I did there?

Elias didn't seem inclined to play the "under slot" game and sign Vaughn or Abrams in order to spread out the allotted $13,821,300 in bonus money, though he didn't issue any firm denials. There was so much reading between the lines that special glasses should have been passed out.

I've talked to scouts who insist that the Orioles need to select Rutschman. Baseball America considers him the best draft prospect since Bryce Harper. He's been called the top catching prospect since Johnny Bench.

No one is saying "Mauer with power." The phrase has been retired.

(Anyone who thinks the Orioles would be thrilled if Rutschman turned into the next Matt Wieters is dead wrong. Wieters has pieced together a nice career, but teams want a lot more out of the first overall pick.)

Other scouts and talent evaluators say the club would be nuts to pass on Witt. They love the tools and makeup and believe that he'll advance quickly through the system.

I tend to lean on the argument that a college player is more desirable because it's a shorter path to the majors, but the Orioles are in a full rebuild mode and certainly can afford to wait on Witt. There's really no rush.

They can't go wrong with either selection tonight and we won't know until much later if they got it right. You don't evaluate a draft in a year or two.

You also don't argue against Rutschman by bringing up catcher Chance Sisco's name. The Orioles will figure out what to do if they choose Rutschman and Sisco is firmly entrenched on the roster. Or if he's riding the shuttle.

Teams carry two catchers. The Orioles could try Sisco at a different position. They could trade him. But they cannot resist taking Rutschman simply because of Sisco and the idea that he might live up to his early promise.

No one is blocking Rutschman or Witt. It doesn't matter who's in the system. The best players will be in the majors. And the Orioles are trying to improve their organizational depth and infuse more talent into their system.

The Orioles hold the first, 42nd and 71st picks tonight before the draft resumes on Tuesday afternoon. The top selection is valued at $8,415,300, more than the $8,096,300 in 2018.

The 42nd pick is slotted at $1,771,100 and the 71st in Competitive Balance Round B at $884,200.

Trey Mancini, an eighth-rounder in 2013 out of Notre Dame, might not be glued to his television while the Orioles are spending their off-day in Texas, but he plans on tracking their picks.

"I'll definitely pay attention, and I have every year. I've tried to if it's not going on during the game or anything," he said.

"It's always cool and it kind of brings back memories of when you're in that position and going through that whole process, so it's always cool to see what teams take guys in certain spots and things like that. So yeah, it's definitely something that I'll be paying attention to.

"There's always a lot of hype and it seems like they've got some pretty good choices to work with, too. I'm familiar with some of the top-rated guys in the draft. I know the catcher from Oregon State's a stud and Bobby Witt Jr., I've heard he's a really, really good player. So they've got some good talent to choose from for sure."