Forecasting Orioles' 25-man roster remains a source of frustration

With exactly one week remaining before pitchers and catchers must report to the Ed Smith Stadium complex in Sarasota, the task of submitting a mock 25-man roster hasn't grown much easier since my attempts two months ago.

The rotation still has openings behind Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, with only in-house candidates in the mix. The bullpen includes only one left-hander, Richard Bleier, who seems assured of breaking camp with the team if he stays healthy. There's supposed to be another left-handed hitter to compete for the starting job in right field. It's possible that another utility infielder is signed.

The only semblance of clarity arrived with confirmation at FanFest that Manny Machado would move to shortstop and Tim Beckham would switch to third base. There were discussions about the wisdom of making Beckham a super utility player.

We have closure unless the plan changes before the March 29 opener. Don't get too comfortable.

Beckham has been told that he's the leadoff hitter, but I already put him atop my order with the team devoid of a prototypical guy for the role.

Here's the lineup that I submitted back in December:

SS Tim Beckham
3B Manny Machado
2B Jonathan Schoop
1B Chris Davis
CF Adam Jones
DH Mark Trumbo
LF Trey Mancini
C Caleb Joseph
RF Austin Hays

Hays must earn a spot on the roster and the Orioles really don't want three right-handed hitters in their starting outfield. They could go with a platoon in right and as I've written, Hays could be part of it, a backup or ticketed for Triple-A Norfolk. I'm just more comfortable inserting him in right over Anthony Santander, Joey Rickard or Jaycob Brugman.

Some lineups continue to include Chance Sisco behind the plate, but he's in the same boat as Hays. Has to earn a roster spot. And Caleb Joseph projects as the starter with Sisco, Austin Wynns and Andrew Susac vying for the backup role.

I'm not making any changes to my previous lineup beyond the positions for Machado and Beckham.

Here's my December bench:

C Chance Sisco
OF Anthony Santander
INF Rubén Tejada
OF Joey Rickard

I'm inclined to replace Tejada with Luis Sardiñas if no one else enters the utility competition. Wynns will provide stiff competition for Sisco. Santander has 44 more days of Rule 5 status to open the season.

Here's my December rotation:

RHP Dylan Bundy
RHP Kevin Gausman
RHP Miguel Castro
RHP Mike Wright
LHP Nestor Cortes Jr.

I can't make any changes today because the Orioles haven't done anything to address it. Cortes would be a nice bullpen piece as a lefty long man backing up right-handed starters, but he might be needed in the rotation. I like Castro's chances of making the transition to major league starter, but he comes with a glove, not a guarantee. Wright is out of options and I'm putting him in the rotation until someone comes along to squeeze him out of it.

Gabriel Ynoa also is out of options and could be inserted. Alec Asher remains on the 40-man roster and therefore stays in the mix, but he seems to be lower on the list of pitchers under consideration.

Hunter Harvey won't break camp with the team, but he's a possibility for the rotation later in the summer. Don't discount him simply because of his injury history, innings logged in the minors and failure to pitch above low Single-A Delmarva. The Orioles aren't closing any doors on him.

Here's a look back at my bullpen:

RHP Brad Brach
RHP Darren O'Day
RHP Mychal Givens
LHP Richard Bleier
LHP Donnie Hart
RHP Jimmy Yacabonis
RHP Gabriel Ynoa

I've explained Ynoa's presence on the 25-man roster. Wright could be stashed in the bullpen if unable to make the rotation. Hart could be pushed out of the 'pen if Cortes, a Rule 5 selection, sticks as a reliever and the Orioles follow through on their plan to acquire a hard-throwing lefty. Yacabonis needs to cut down on his walks or he's facing an uphill battle to make the club out of spring training.

Non-roster lefties Joely Rodríguez, Josh Edgin and Andrew Faulkner received invitations to spring training and will vie for jobs. Rodríguez fits the description of the type of reliever the Orioles would like to carry, but he needs to show marked improvement over his 2017 season.

Tanner Scott is expected to start at Norfolk in April rather than work out of the Orioles bullpen.

The Orioles really like right-handers Pedro Araujo and José Mesa, but how many Rule 5 selections can they bring north?

No reminders were needed that this club still has lots of work to do, but the inability to make wholesale changes to December mocks provides a stark one. I barely did any tweaking. Two positions and a utility role, the latter based mostly on a hunch.

The forecast calls for a flurry of activity later this month and perhaps in March. I'll gladly start over.