Has the Nats lineup improved from last year?

Though the Nationals' offseason is only about two-thirds complete at this point - for these purposes we're talking about from when the postseason ended until the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training - barring a surprising turn of events, they already know who's going to be in their opening day lineup.

Of course things can change between now and then, whether injuries or trades or late signings, but the Nationals by all accounts aren't actively seeking anybody at this point who would crack their starting lineup when everyone's healthy.

So the question then becomes this: How will the 2017 lineup compare to the 2016 version?

Last year's lineup, keep in mind, was pretty good. The Nationals ranked fourth in the National League in runs, fourth in home runs, sixth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and fourth in OPS.

Not that it was a perfect unit, far from it. Manager Dusty Baker regularly spoke about his desire to get his team to perform better in situational hitting. With runners in scoring position, the Nats dropped to fifth in the NL in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage and seventh in slugging percentage. With two outs and runners in scoring position, they fell to either eighth or ninth place in each of those categories.

So those are areas for potential improvement.

The question here is whether the projected 2017 lineup is better than last year's lineup. We'll run through these position-by-position, offering up the Nats' total offensive stat lines at each position in 2016 and then looking at whether they're likely to be better, worse or the same at that position in 2017 ...

CATCHER
2016 stats: .297/.353/.480, 26 HR, 89 RBIs
2017 outlook: Worse
Man, Wilson Ramos was good last year. And it's going to be just about impossible to replace that kind of offensive production. There are only a handful of catchers in the majors who can reasonably produce those numbers. The Nationals believe Derek Norris is a strong candidate to bounce back from an awful 2016 with the Padres. During his All-Star campaign in 2014 with the A's, he hit .270/.361/.403 with 10 homers and 55 RBIs. The Nats would love to get that out of him, with perhaps some additional production coming from Pedro Severino at some point in the season. But overall, this is going to be the Nationals' biggest drop-off in offensive production from last year to this year.

FIRST BASE
2016 stats: .232/.289/.384, 23 HR, 82 RBIs
2017 outlook: Same-to-slightly better
The Nationals had the NL's worst offensive production from first basemen last season. And that's not the kind of position you want to rank last in offensive production. Ryan Zimmerman, plain and simple, had a terrible year. The glass-is-half-full view, though, would say there's no way this can get any worse in 2017, right? At worst, you'd figure Zimmerman would put up comparable numbers, though if that happens, it's not unreasonable to wonder if Baker would make a switch and bench the popular veteran. That's not the team's preferred scenario. They really, really want Zim to return to the kind of production he consistently provided only a few years ago while healthy. That may be too much to hope for, but even modest improvement here would be a net-positive.

SECOND BASE
2016 stats: .348/.388/.591, 26 HR, 109 RBIs
2017 outlook: Same-to-slightly worse
The Nationals had the NL's most productive second basemen last season, and it wasn't even close. For that, they can thank Daniel Murphy (though don't forget Stephen Drew's contributions when Murphy was out or filling in at first base). Is it reasonable to expect a duplicate performance this year? Maybe not, though it's not ludicrous to suggest that this really is who Murphy is as a hitter now and last year wasn't some out-of-nowhere fluke. Still, the safer bet is for some small regression from the MVP runner-up. But even if he hits .300 with a .350 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage and 20 homers, the Nats will still have one of the best offensive second basemen in the game.

SHORTSTOP
2016 stats: .213/.308/.373, 24 HR, 78 RBIs
2017 outlook: Significantly better
It's not going out on a limb to suggest Trea Turner is going to be more productive offensively in 2017 than Danny Espinosa was in 2016. Now, whether Turner can be expected to do over a full season what he did over half a season (.342/.370/.567) is another story. It's hard to count on anything like that from anybody, let alone a 23-year-old with only 368 career plate appearances. But the point is, Turner is going to be a major upgrade from what used to hold down this position. He won't match Espinosa in the field, but he'll more than make up for it at the plate, and potentially give the Nationals one of the most productive shortstops in the league.

THIRD BASE
2016 stats: .267/.345/.449, 22 HR, 89 RBIs
2017 outlook: Same-to-slightly better
With all the attention given to Murphy, Turner and Bryce Harper, we sometimes forget how good Anthony Rendon is at the plate. No, he hasn't been able to duplicate his electric 2014 performance in the two years since, but after a slow start at the plate in 2016 he nearly reached those same numbers by season's end. And given his age (26) and talent, there's every reason to believe he will be at worst the same hitter in 2017 that he was in 2016, with a decent chance for some improvement as well. The Nats had the fifth-most productive third basemen in the NL last season. If Rendon lives up to what he has already shown us he can be, they can rank among the league's best here.

LEFT FIELD
2016 stats: .236/.322/.383, 21 HR, 73 RBIs
2017 outlook: Slightly worse-to-slightly better
This one's hard to project, no doubt about it. What does Jayson Werth have left in the tank as he enters the final season of his contract with the Nationals, a season in which he'll turn 38 in May? Werth has defied conventional wisdom throughout his career, so it's not necessarily fair to suggest he's going to plummet in 2017. Actually, he was more productive in 2016 than he was in 2015 (when, admittedly, a couple of injuries disrupted his season). It's possible he drops off some. It's possible he holds steady. And it's possible he improves some, though probably not a lot. Guys don't suddenly find the Fountain of Youth at 38 (at least, not since stricter PED testing and penalties went into place). Along with first base, this is the biggest question mark in the lineup right now.

CENTER FIELD
2016 stats: .257/.304/.401, 20 HR, 64 RBIs
2017 outlook: Moderately-to-significantly better
The Nationals had the worst offensive center fielders in baseball through the first half of 2016, by a longshot. The only reason they were able to leapfrog eight clubs by season's end was the ridiculously impressive performance by Turner after he took over the job in late July. Turner, of course, is now the shortstop, with newly acquired Adam Eaton now in center field. Eaton's 2016 numbers (.284/.362/.428) would have ranked ninth among all major league center fielders, so the Nats are going to improve in this category. And if Eaton's power continues to develop the way some in the organization believe, that improvement could end up being significant.

RIGHT FIELD
2016 stats: .245/.368/.443, 27 HR, 97 RBIs
2017 outlook: Moderately-to-significantly better
Harper had a bad year, there's no debate over that. And yet, did you know Nats right fielders still ranked second in the NL in OPS, tied with the Cardinals and behind only the Rockies? That's how good Harper is, even in a bad year by his incredibly high standards. Now, what are the odds he has another season like that? Provided he's healthy - and I'm still convinced his shoulder or neck was less than 100 percent for a large chunk of last season - he's going to be better. And most likely significantly better. Best-case scenario, he recaptures his MVP form. More-likely scenario, he returns to mere All-Star form. But there's every reason to believe he's going to be much better in 2017 than he was in 2016, and that should make a huge difference for the Nationals.

FINAL VERDICT
The Nationals are going to get better offensive production in right field, center field and shortstop this year, perhaps significantly better production at all three positions. They should get roughly comparable production at second base and third base, both of which were quite good last year. They're going to be worse from the catcher's position, and there's nothing really they can do about that. The wild cards, as we all have known throughout, are first base and left field. Can Zimmerman and Werth perform like they have in the past, or are their best days well behind them? If either or both has it in them, the Nationals should have one of the most productive lineups in baseball. But even if they don't, this should still be at least as good a lineup in 2017 as it was in 2016.