How does Corbin become an effective pitcher again?

PLAYER REVIEW: PATRICK CORBIN

Age on opening day 2023: 33

How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2018

MLB service time: 10 years, 105 days

2022 salary: $23 million

Contract status: Signed for $24 million in 2023, $35 million in 2024 ($10 million deferred), free agent in 2025

2022 stats: 6-19, 6.31 ERA, 31 G, 31 GS, 1 CG, 152 2/3 IP, 210 H, 119 R, 107 ER, 27 HR, 49 BB, 128 SO, 7 HBP, 1.697 WHIP, 62 ERA+, 4.84 FIP, 0.8 fWAR, -2.5 bWAR

Quotable: “I see him as a starter for us next year. He takes the ball every fifth day. His stuff was good, the velocity of his fastball was good, his spin rate was good. I think his last seven or eight starts were more indicative of who he’s going to be next year than his previous starts. I think that the defense we put behind him is going to help him through his bottom line next year. But I give the guy credit: He answered questions every day, he took the ball every five days and he’s a pro. And I think he’s going to come back with a little chip on his shoulder next year and try to prove a lot of naysayers wrong. I think that he’ll get closer to the 2018 and ‘19 Patrick Corbin that we’ve seen in the past.” – Mike Rizzo 

2022 analysis: The Nationals wanted to believe Patrick Corbin’s strong finish to the 2021 season (quality starts in four of his last five outings) would portend good things in 2022. They were sorely wrong about that. This season got off to a ragged start for the lefty, who was 0-4 with an 8.69 ERA in April) and it never got significantly better, at least not for any significant stretch of time.

Corbin had some occasional strong outings, in five instances allowing zero or one run in five or more innings. But his blowups were far more regular: He gave up six or more runs in eight starts, and he only completed five innings in one of those instances. He failed to make it out of the first inning twice in a span of three starts in late-July and early-August, disastrous outings that did nothing to convey a sense he could return to the form he showed three years ago.

As the losses piled up, the Nationals faced an unenviable dilemma: Let Corbin keep taking the mound every five days and risk becoming the majors’ first 20-game loser since Detroit’s Mike Maroth in 2003, or shut him down at some point to avoid that ignominy? He insisted he wanted to keep pitching, and they intended to let him do that. But then he tweaked his back in the first inning of his Sept. 20 start in Atlanta, and that gave the Nats reason to give him a little break.

Corbin did return to make one final start Oct. 2 against the Phillies and was shelled for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings. He didn’t reach the dreaded 20-loss mark, but he did join Omar Daal of the 2000 Phillies as the only major league pitchers since World War II to finish a season with at least 19 losses and an ERA over 6.00.

2023 outlook: The Nationals once again want to believe some better September performances (four quality starts in his last five outings prior to suffering the back injury) will lead to a better start to the next season for Corbin. They can believe that all they want, but he’s going to have to make some major improvements to actually see that through.

For now, there’s every reason to believe Corbin will be part of the opening day rotation. Despite ample reason either to demote him to the bullpen or release him altogether, the Nats don’t have the pitching depth at the moment to do that, and they aren’t about to eat the $59 million they still owe him. For better or worse, he’s going to begin the 2023 season in the rotation (if healthy).

How does Corbin get back to some semblance of his old form? Plain and simple, he has to start missing bats again. From 2018-19, he allowed only 7.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.8. From 2020-22, those rates flip-flopped to 11.2 hits and 7.6 strikeouts. (His walk rate essentially has remained the same.)

How does he reverse those trends again? It begins with his longstanding bread-and-butter pitch: His slider. In 2019, opponents batted only .158 and slugged .266 off his slider. This season, they batted .309 and slugged a whopping .571. He can also work on better command of his four-seam fastball and especially his sinker, which in theory should produce more groundballs. (And yes, improved infield defense should help him to some extent in that regard).

One of these days, the Nationals are going to be in a position where they don’t have to rely on Corbin being a part of their rotation anymore. That day probably hasn’t come yet, but you would hope the leash on him tightens considerably next season and that the organization won’t be willing to accept these same results for another 30 starts.