Is Fedde on thin ice after another disappointing season?

PLAYER REVIEW: ERICK FEDDE

Age on opening day 2023: 30

How acquired: First-round pick, 2014 draft

MLB service time: 4 years, 99 days

2022 salary: $2.15 million

Contract status: Arbitration-eligible, free agent in 2025

2022 stats: 6-13, 5.81 ERA, 27 G, 27 GS, 0 CG, 127 IP, 149 H, 84 R, 82 ER, 21 HR, 58 BB, 94 SO, 0 HBP, 1.630 WHIP, 67 ERA+, 5.15 FIP, 0.4 fWAR, -0.8 bWAR

Quotable: “It’s all about controlling the strike zone, for me, with him. He’s got to get better at that. I always say his stuff is good. But he’s got to control the strike zone. He’s got to get the ball over the plate, up and down, not side to side. When he does that, he’s relatively good. But he’s got to be consistent with it.” – Davey Martinez

2022 analysis: As he did the previous season, Erick Fedde showed signs of a breakthrough in April and May. Having allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his first nine starts, he owned a 3.55 ERA in late-May and looked like he was ready to turn a major corner in his career.

Alas, Fedde had a similar experience in 2021 and didn’t seize that opportunity. After producing a 3.33 ERA over his first 10 starts, he saw that number balloon to 6.80 over his final 19 outings, leaving his season totals looking quite unproductive. A couple of brief stints on the injured list didn’t help, but he had ample time to find a groove again and never did.

Sure enough, it happened again this season. Four weeks on the IL with right shoulder inflammation didn’t help, but even so, Fedde went 3-10 with a 7.08 ERA over his final 18 starts. A nine-run blowup on the final day of the season did add an unfortunate 0.54 runs to his final ERA. But even with a quality start that evening in New York, it was far too late to salvage the entire year.

2023 outlook: The Nationals have been waiting a long time for Fedde to develop into a consistently effectively starting pitcher. They used their first-round pick on him eight long years ago, the same first round that produced the likes of Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Kyle Freeland and Jack Flaherty. At some point, they have to decide if they believe he’s still going to make it, or if they’ve already seen the best he’s got.

For Fedde to realize that long untapped potential, he’s got to learn how to put away hitters on fewer pitches. Anecdotally, he seemed to turn every 0-2 count into a full count, and the reality does confirm some of that. Despite getting ahead 0-2 considerably more times than he fell behind 2-0, his two most common counts at an at-bat’s end indeed were 2-2 and 3-2. In the 101 at-bats he began with an 0-2 count, hitters still managed to bat .215 with a .589 OPS, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider the MLB averages for that situation are .160 and .434.

Entering his second year of arbitration, Fedde stands to earn a modest raise; MLB Trade Rumors projects his 2023 salary to come in around $3.6 million. That’s not an exorbitant sum of money for a relatively durable starting pitcher, but the Nationals’ patience with the soon-to-be 30-year-old could be running thin. They probably can’t claim to have enough rotation depth at the moment to cut ties with Fedde. But if they did go out and sign a more established starter or two, he would almost certainly move toward the front of the line among candidates to be non-tendered this winter.