Making more early Orioles predictions

I shared some predictions a week ago and set aside topics that I wasn’t ready to touch.

Let’s do this again with a few more, pausing the arbitration talk and waiting one more day for the start of the international signing period.

Predictions:

The Orioles will exceed the 87.5 wins set as odds by BetOnline.

The site adds that “these win totals are subject to change leading up to the season due to injuries, performance, public action, etc.” So yes, the acquisition of a stud starting pitcher, for example, could scramble some numbers.

I’m also certain that the Orioles won’t register exactly 87 ½ victories. Some limbs are sturdier than others.

The site has the Yankees at 93.5, followed by the Orioles, Blue Jays (86.5), Rays (84.5) and Red Sox (80.5). So yes, the Orioles make the playoffs as a wild card.

That’s the second wild card after the Rangers with 89.5 wins.

I’m not conceding the division to the Yankees or anyone else. For now, I’m just expressing confidence that the Orioles will win 90 or more games.

The Orioles will go to an arbitration hearing with at least one unsigned player.

I know the file-and-go stance suggests all five – Austin Hays, Ryan O’Hearn, Cionel Pérez, Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb – but the Orioles have maintained a dialogue in the past.

Remember Trey Mancini, John Means and Austin Voth, all of them agreeing to new contracts past the deadline since the Orioles hired executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias.

Anthony Santander was an exception in 2021. He went to a hearing and lost. But he’s set in 2024 at $11.7 million.

The club originally had 17 eligible players and went into Thursday with 13 of them lacking contracts. They got deals done with Santander, Dillon Tate ($1.5 million), John Means ($3.325 million), Cedric Mullins ($6.325 million), Cole Irvin ($2 million), Ryan Mountcastle ($4.137 million), Ramon Urías ($2.1 million) and Tyler Wells ($1.9625 million).

All things considered, going 12-for-17 is fairly impressive but leaves the Orioles with more work to do.

I’m predicting 4-for-5 with the remaining players prior to a hearing, but don’t hold me to that exact figure. I’m saying it won’t be 5-for-5. Just a hunch.

The Orioles and Webb will find a midpoint and avoid a hearing.

The sides are $75,000 apart. Come on.

I could dip into my savings.

The Orioles will get swept during the regular season.

The Division Series didn’t count. We’re not talking playoffs (in my best Jim Mora voice.)

Even the best teams stumble in a series. To go an entire season, 52 series, without being swept seems quirky and unlikely to repeat.

It’s definitely the first time in club history and only the fourth time that it’s happened in the majors since 2000. The Braves are responsible for the other three.

The overall streak for the Orioles is 91 series in a row dating back to May 2022 in Detroit.

I’m just playing the odds here that it won’t continue.

Gunnar Henderson will repeat as Most Valuable Oriole.

They eventually could name the award after him. He’s that good.

Unlike the dark past, the number of legitimate candidates is increasing. There’s always the dumb vote factor. No offense to Rougned Odor, but he received one in 2022. However, Henderson hasn’t hit his ceiling. He’s going to get better, and that should send the rest of the league into a panic.

Henderson will influence games with his power, bat skills, speed and glove. He’s going to play just about every day.

Adley Rutschman will be an annual candidate. Santander will rank highly in doubles, home runs, RBIs and OPS. A full, healthy season from Mountcastle likely puts him in the discussion.

Full, healthy seasons from Means and Grayson Rodriguez and a repeat or better from Kyle Bradish will do the same.

Not ready:

* You can keep asking about Jackson Holliday making the Opening Day roster and I'll keep stalling like Dean Smith's four corners offense at North Carolina.

* Still not ready to admit that I'm getting old, but the Dean Smith reference ain't helping.

* Urías and Jorge Mateo have new contracts. I don't have a feel for whether one or both will be looking for new teams - especially because of Holliday's uncertain situation.